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Trump’s tariffs raise tax-cut stakes with recession fears rising

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President Donald Trump’s much bigger-than-expected tariff hikes increase the urgency of the Republican tax-cut package now in negotiation, while threatening to undermine its boost to business and consumer confidence.

With the biggest selloff on Wall Street since the COVID crisis showcasing investor concerns about Trump’s plans to jack up U.S. tariffs against all trading partners, the stakes are now higher for the GOP tax package. A simple extension of the 2017 income-tax cuts that are set to expire at the end of this year would offer no new fiscal stimulus.

“The main question is what do they do that goes beyond extending the 2017 cuts?” said Alec Phillips, chief U.S. political economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. “The tariffs that are being discussed look like they are on a larger scale than the net tax cut that seems to be under consideration in Congress.”

Republicans appear aware of the potential trade-off. Senate GOP members this week unveiled a budget blueprint that provided for $1.5 trillion of extra tax reductions, on top of a $4 trillion extension of the 2017 measures. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, one of Trump’s main negotiators, said the administration wants to incorporate Trump’s campaign pledges of ending taxes on tips and overtime pay, added relief for seniors and deductions for purchases of U.S.-made cars. Lawmakers are also aiming to include business-tax breaks viewed among the most pro-growth of the proposals.

The White House chief economist, Stephen Miran, also argued on Friday that the administration’s planned wave of deregulation will have a “powerful, and arguably much more powerful,” effect than tariffs.

But the danger is the ramp-up in import levies tips the economy into a downward spiral that makes it tough for tax cuts, a reduced regulatory burden and even lower interest rates to quickly reverse. Bloomberg Economics estimated that, with the panoply of measures Trump has announced, the average U.S. tariff rate is poised to climb to almost 22%, or the highest in roughly a century.

The tariffs aren’t yet fully in place, and may be subject to negotiation. If they do proceed, most economists see a sizable boost to inflation. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Friday said the price effects could be temporary, or prove “more persistent.” With wage growth slowing, that implies a hit to household incomes. A consumption hit could in turn spur employers to lay off staff and curb investment — even in an environment of cheaper borrowing costs.

“Large shocks are usually associated with nonlinear effects and unintended consequences,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. economists led by Bruce Kasman wrote in a note to clients Thursday. The bank on Friday changed its call on the economic outlook and now sees the U.S. sliding into a recession this year — an outcome Bessent has rejected.

Then there’s the timing issue. The most powerful wave of tariff hikes yet is set to take effect April 9. But the tax-cut legislation is likely months away from passage. Bessent highlighted in a Bloomberg TV interview Wednesday that the Republicans have never been more united. Even so, the so-called reconciliation bill that Republicans are using to bypass Democrats involves a complicated process, requiring many steps before it’s enacted.

And even then, the tax relief is for next year’s income, while the tariff-related risks are surging in the here-and-now. 

“Whatever fiscal oomph that we may get is probably a 2026 reality, whereas the trade policy uncertainty is a headwind to growth is a 2025 reality,” said Richard Clarida, managing director and global economic adviser at Pacific Investment Management Co. and a former Treasury official in the George W. Bush administration. “In the narrow, limiting case, where you don’t do anything on tax on tips or this or that, then there’s essentially no real net stimulus.”

Bessent has repeatedly emphasized that the Trump administration’s priority is Main Street, not Wall Street, and he and the president have embraced the idea of a transition period to where the economy is propelled by the private-sector — rather than the government-led growth pattern they say prevailed under Joe Biden. High import levies could also offer a path toward better trade deals.

“Is this ugly right now? Is this distasteful? Absolutely,” said Phil Orlando, chief market strategist at the asset manager Federated Hermes. “But it was exactly the sort of thing they needed to do in order to get everyone’s attention and start to have a series of negotiations to try to level that playing field and boost economic growth through more normalized trade.”

The tariffs in the meantime will be bringing in fresh revenue to the government, which — while it cannot count toward paying for the tax cuts according to reconciliation-bill rules — may help reduce the outsize federal budget deficit. Bessent has estimated the tariff income at $300 billion to $600 billion a year.

A political risk for the Republicans, beyond any potential recession, is that import duties are regressive — disproportionately affecting lower-income buyers of overseas goods. That risks the working-class voters that helped the GOP secure both the White House and both chambers of Congress in November.

The Tax Foundation, a policy think tank, has estimated the announced tariffs will impose an average tax hike of over $1,900 per household for 2025. By comparison, Senate Majority Leader John Thune said a four-person household with $80,000 in earnings would avoid sending an additional $1,700 to the government next year thanks to the tax package.

The tariffs are “highly damaging and primarily burden low and middle income families,” said Samantha Jacoby, deputy director of federal tax policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. “Small targeted tax cuts for low income or middle income families doesn’t change that.”

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Accounting

DAF assets keep accumulating without taxes

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Donor-advised funds are continuing to grow while enjoying substantial tax deductions for charitable giving even as many contributions go to other DAFs and private foundations instead of actual charities, according to a new report.

The report, released Monday by the Charity Reform Initiative of the Institute for Policy Studies, found that total DAF assets have grown 67% over the past four years, from $152 billion in 2020 to $254 billion in 2023, despite fluctuations in contributions. 

National sponsor assets have grown at by far the fastest pace, increasing 92% from 2020 to 2023. (National sponsors are those with no specific geographic or cause-based mission, such as Fidelity Charitable, the National Philanthropic Trust and the American Endowment Foundation.) While they represent only 3% of DAF sponsors, national sponsors held 70% of all DAF assets, took in 73% of all DAF contributions, and gave out 61% of all DAF grant dollars in 2023.

The median DAF account size across all sponsors was $135,086 in 2023. National sponsors had the largest accounts, at $390,910. Donation processor accounts were by far the smallest, at $305. (Donation sponsors administer mass-scale contributions, such as workplace giving, payroll deduction or crowdfunding programs. Some examples include PayPal Charitable Giving Fund, Network for Good and American Online Giving Foundation.)

The median DAF payout rate across all sponsors was 9.7% in 2023. This payout has stayed around 9 to 10 percent for the past four years. Donation processors have by far the highest payout rates of any sponsor type, granting out around 82% in any given year. Community foundation sponsors have the lowest rates, granting out around 8 to 9%. (Community sponsors mainly support charities in a specific geographic region such as a state, county or city. Examples include the Silicon Valley Community Foundation, the Chicago Community Trust and the Community Foundation of the Ozarks).

DAF-to-DAF grants accounted for an estimated $4.4 billion in 2023. Some of these go-between gifts are the commercial sponsors’ largest. In 2023, for example, Schwab Charitable’s third-largest grant was to Fidelity Charitable, for $122 million. That same year, Fidelity Charitable’s largest grant was to National Philanthropic Trust, at $195 million, with Schwab Charitable in second place at $183 million.

Private foundations gave at least an estimated $3.2 billion dollars in grants to national donor-advised funds in 2022. Private foundations’ 5% annual payout requirement is supposed to ensure their grants go to operating charities in a timely way, but because DAFs have no payout or account-level disclosure requirements, foundation-to-DAF grants can undermine the foundation payout rules and transparency rules as well.

The report argues for more transparency. “The public only has access to aggregate sponsor-level information about DAF grants and payout rates,” said the report. “This means that individual DAF accounts that pay out at high rates may be providing statistical cover for DAF accounts that pay out very little, or nothing at all. And there is no way for regulators or the public to trace significant donations back to major donors, as is possible for private foundations.”

The report noted that every year, more charitable dollars are diverted to donor-advised funds while nonprofits on the ground struggle harder to get funding. “Donors reap significant tax savings from DAF giving, and those savings are subsidized by other American taxpayers with no guarantee of commensurate public benefit,” said the report. “In the absence of adequate transparency, DAFs are ripe for mistreatment by donors and for-profit actors. Congress could ensure that DAFs are more accountable to the public and move funds in a timely manner to charities on the ground.”

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Accounting

What clients expanding businesses into other states should know about SIT and SUI

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It’s an exciting time for business owners when they take their small businesses to the next level, expanding to other locations. 

While there are many moving parts when opening a new office or store in the same state, business clients have additional tasks to tackle when branching out into other states. As a trusted accounting and tax resource, you will likely be their go-to for answers when they have questions about what’s involved in those efforts.

In this post, I will cover three important compliance components of setting up shop in another state.

Foreign qualification

Foreign qualification is the process of registering an existing entity in one state as a foreign entity in another state to legally allow it to conduct business there.  Different states have different nexus criteria for determining what’s considered “conducting business,” but the one universal rule for when a business must foreign qualify is if it opens a physical location in a state. 

After a company has foreign qualified, it must fulfill the state’s business compliance requirements — e.g., obtain licenses, file annual reports, comply with employment laws, and pay applicable state (and possibly local) taxes. 

State income tax

State income tax is a state-mandated tax that most states collect on business income and employees’ pay. Any business with employees in the state is responsible for withholding SIT from employees’ gross wages or salaries and remitting that money to the correct state tax agency. Typically, state tax rates vary by state and differ for business entities and individuals. 

Currently, nine states do not levy an individual income tax, and a few also do not have a corporate income tax: 

  • Alaska (no individual income tax, but has a graduated corporate income tax);
  • Florida (no individual income tax, but has a corporate income tax);
  • Nevada (no individual income tax; no corporate income tax, but levies a gross receipts tax on business entities with gross revenue exceeding $4 million in a fiscal year);
  • New Hampshire (doesn’t tax individual’s wage income and is eliminating the tax on dividends and interest income for the 2025 tax year; has a Business Profits Tax and entities with gross receipts over $298,000 are subject to a Business Enterprise Tax);
  • South Dakota (no individual or corporate income tax);
  • Tennessee (no individual income tax; no corporate income tax, but has a business tax, a privilege tax for doing business by making sales of tangible personal property and services, which usually consists of two taxes: a state business tax and a city business tax);
  • Texas (no individual income tax; no corporate income tax, but has a franchise tax, a privilege tax on business entities formed in or doing business in the state);
  • Washington (no individual income tax; no corporate income tax, but imposes a business and occupation or public utility tax on gross receipts);
  • Wyoming (no individual income tax or corporate income tax, but has a Business Entity License Tax).

Note that cities and counties in some states charge their own income tax as well, even if the state does not levy income tax. 

Before withholding SIT and local income tax from employees’ pay in a state, an employer must register for a state-issued employer identification number and follow the local government’s rules for registering to withhold and remit its income tax. Businesses must pay close attention to meeting the state and local payroll reporting and payment deadlines to avoid fines and penalties. 

State unemployment insurance

Businesses with employees in a state with its own unemployment insurance program must also register to contribute to that program. Like the federal unemployment program, SUI (also known as SUTA) provides temporary payments to workers who become unemployed due to no fault of their own. A few states — Alaska, New Jersey and Pennsylvania — require employees to pay a portion of the SUI. The laws of the state establish the taxable wage threshold and the unemployment tax rate.

Employers must pay federal and state unemployment insurance for each employee based on the employee’s wages or salary. The 6% FUTA tax applies to the first $7,000 paid (after subtracting any FUTA-exempt payment amounts) to each employee during a calendar year. Please note most states have a credit reduction amount that reduces the 6% FUTA tax; the credit reduction rates can change each year for each state. States’ SUI rates vary, with each state determining the wage base, or threshold, for when SUI kicks in. Businesses can anticipate that SUI tax rates might change from year to year in response to economic conditions.

To register for SUI, businesses must register with the state department (e.g., Department of Revenue or Department of Employment Security) responsible for unemployment taxes. Businesses need an Employer Identification Number from the IRS to set up an account with the state for filing and remitting SUI taxes. Generally, states require businesses to report and pay their SUI quarterly.

There’s more

Also, inform business clients that some states require employers to pay or withhold additional payroll taxes. For example, employers in California must pay an Employment Training Tax, which provides money to train employees in specific industries and withhold or pay State Disability Insurance from employees’ paychecks, which temporarily pays workers when they’re ill or injured due to non-work activities or for pregnancy, and Paid Family Leave benefits. In Kentucky, many counties and cities impose an Occupational License Fee on individuals’ payroll and the net profits of a business.

Also, businesses with workers on payroll in a state must pay for workers’ compensation insurance; no portion of that cost may be deducted from employees’ pay.

The bottom line

As your clients’ trusted tax advisor, I encourage you to provide the most clear and comprehensive expertise that your licensing allows so your clients understand their tax and payroll obligations when they expand their operations to other states and localities. Also, make them aware that states’ rules and regulations vary for companies registering as foreign entities within their jurisdictions. It’s critical that your business clients research the requirements that apply to them and get the professional legal guidance they need to fully understand and comply with their responsibilities.

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Accounting

Trump tax cut, debt limit plan advances amid tariff turmoil

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Senate Republicans took a major step toward enacting President Donald Trump’s tax cut agenda and increasing the U.S. debt ceiling, potentially injecting a small degree of certainty into financial markets roiled by the president’s tariff policies.

The Senate early Saturday morning passed the budget resolution by a 51-48 margin after an overnight marathon of votes on amendments. Two Republican senators, Susan Collins of Maine and Rand Paul of Kentucky, joined all Democrats in opposing the budget resolution. 

The measure allows congressional Republicans to craft legislation to extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts for individuals and closely held businesses that expire at the end of 2025. Even so, spending cuts remain caught up in a lingering dispute between House and Senate GOP members.

It also permits for $1.5 trillion in new tax cuts over a decade, and calls for a $5 trillion increase to the federal borrowing limit to avert the Treasury Department hitting the debt ceiling this summer.  

The vote comes at a perilous moment for the economy after Trump unveiled tariffs on nearly every country this week, causing global stock markets to tumble and sparking fears of a worldwide recession.

Republicans have described the tax cuts — a proposed total of $5.3 trillion over 10 years in the Senate version and $4.5 trillion in the House’s — as the next phase of Trump’s two-part economic agenda after the tariffs. The president’s allies argue that a fresh round of levy reductions will boost markets and provide certainty for businesses to invest. However, it’s not clear if the scope of the tax package counter the tariff fears gripping investors.

Congressional Republicans say renewing the expiring portions of Trump’s first-term cuts are imperative to avert a tax hike on U.S. households next year.

“A typical family of four making $80,000 a year would end up sending an additional $1,700 to the government next year,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said. 

The budget also calls for $150 billion in new funds for the military and $175 billion for immigration efforts, two top spending priorities for Trump, despite broader efforts to slash the federal workforce and budget.

Political posturing

Democrats said the GOP plan will skew tax benefits toward affluent households, at a time economists say lower-and-middle class individuals are poised to bear the brunt of the price hikes from tariffs on imported goods.

“This is the Republican agenda, plain and simple: billionaires win, American families lose,” said Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York..

The budget resolution heads to the House next week where Speaker Mike Johnson will be faced with the challenge of wrestling the measure through his fractious group of Republicans, where he can only afford to lose a handful of votes.

“I look forward to working with House leadership to finish this crucial first step and unlock legislation that strengthens our economic and fiscal foundations,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who was involved in developing the Senate plan, said in a statement.

Some fiscal hawks among House Republicans, including Kentucky’s Thomas Massie and Ralph Norman of South Carolina, have grumbled about the plan for not calling for enough spending cuts.

Texas Representative Chip Roy, a spending hawk and Freedom Caucus member, said he’d vote against the Senate budget if it were brought to the House floor. In contrast, the House version “establishes important guardrails to force Congress to pump the brakes on runaway spending,” he said on X.

The Senate budget resolution provides for at least $4 billion in spending reductions over a decade. That’s significantly lower than the $2 trillion target envisioned in an earlier House version.

Spending squabble

“The Senate response was unserious and disappointing, creating $5.8 trillion in new costs and a mere $4 billion in enforceable cuts, less than one day’s worth of borrowing by the federal government,” House Budget Chairman Jodey Arrington of Texas said Saturday in a statement. He said he’ll work to ensure the final package has large spending cuts.

Senate leaders drastically scaled back the spending cut parameters after several Republicans warned that widespread reductions would likely harm benefits for their constituents, including Medicaid health coverage for low-income households and those with disabilities.

If the House rejects the Senate budget, a new compromise would need to be worked out between the two chambers before they can begin crafting the tax legislation.

Republicans have a series of hard — and potentially divisive — choices to make to squeeze their long list of tax cut proposals into the $1.5 trillion ceiling they set for themselves.

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Mike Crapo has said he has received more than 200 requests for tax cuts to include in the bill.

Atop the list are several campaign trail pledges from Trump, who’s called for eliminating taxes on tipped wages and overtime pay. The president has also said he wants to create a new deduction for car buyers and seniors. 

A group of House lawmakers have demanded an increase in the $10,000 cap on the state and local tax deduction, and most Senate Republicans back a repeal of the estate tax. 

The budget also calls for using a gimmick to count the extension of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts — estimated to cost nearly $4 trillion — as $0 for official scoring purposes. 

This decision will have to get the approval of the Senate parliamentarian before the legislation goes for a final vote, a risky gambit that could leave the GOP rushing at the last-minute to scrounge for offsets for the tax cuts.

Republicans agree on a relatively narrow universe of spending cuts to include in the legislation, including reductions to food stamps, Pell Grants and renewable energy subsidies.  

The Trump administration is also weighing a handful of tax increases to offset the costs — a surprising development for a party that was once universally opposed to any levy hikes.

Among the measures under consideration are introducing a new income tax bracket for those earning $1 million or more, rolling back the corporate state and local tax deduction, and repealing the carried interest break used by the hedge fund and private equity industries. 

Lawmakers envision enacting the final tax package sometime between May and August. As long as legislation adheres to the rules detailed in the budget resolution, it can pass with just Republican votes.

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