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Trump’s tax cuts may fail to drive much economic boost

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President-elect Donald Trump says renewing tax cuts would turbo-charge investment and boost U.S. economic growth — a pledge that helped propel him to election victory in November.

But new analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan fiscal watchdog group, warns that extending tax cuts set to expire next year could do almost nothing to grow the economy. That’s a jarring data point for Republicans framing the case to renew the costly legislation as a way to boost an economy that many voters say isn’t serving them.

Most of the measures up for renewal largely benefit individuals and households, including lower income tax rates and an expanded child tax credit. While those are an easy sell to voters, economists caution on the scale of economic dividend they generate. The bigger spur for investment, they say, would be cuts for corporations.

The business tax breaks in the 2017 law Trump signed in his first term aren’t up for renewal. While he vowed to donors and business leaders gathered at the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday that he’d lower the corporate rate to 15%, that pledge is seen as a potentially perilous move with both voters and some Republicans disdainful of more aid for big business.

The CRFB based its findings on an assessment from the Congressional Budget Office, which had earlier looked at the outcome of not extending the tax cuts. That nonpartisan arm of the legislature had found that letting the reductions expire would generate a major boost to public finances, reducing the cumulative fiscal deficit by $3.7 trillion over a decade.

Those bigger revenues would mean less public borrowing, in turn offering a spur to private investment. In the CBO’s analysis, that would help make up for a modest reduction in the labor force from the expiration of the tax cuts. “On net, those two effects largely offset each other, resulting in very small changes to gross domestic product,” the CBO said.

That CBO analysis implies that renewing the tax cuts would also have a similar, modest net effect on growth, in the CRFB’s thinking.

Spending restraint?

Some other models, including those from the Tax Foundation and the Penn-Wharton Budget Model, have shown small amounts of positive economic feedback from renewing the tax cuts — but nowhere near enough to cover the cost of extending the tax cuts, which the CBO projects would amount to $4.6 trillion over a decade.

Still, the outlook from both the CRFB and CBO adds to doubts about the ultimate economic gains, and underscores the pressure lawmakers will be under to find savings to fund the tax cuts. 

Trump has touted swingeing spending cuts, through a proposed Department of Government Efficiency — a nonprofit group to be run by billionaire Elon Musk and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy looking to come up with ideas for deep savings in public outlays. In addition, the president-elect has talked of imposing a tariff of 10% to 20% on all imported goods plus 60% on Chinese products, and promoted that as an offset for tax cuts.

That comes as the fiscal backdrop continues to deteriorate.

The U.S. budget deficit hit its highest since the COVID pandemic years in 2024, propelled by increased debt interest costs and higher Social Security and defense spending. The shortfall for the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30 came to $1.83 trillion, up from $1.7 trillion the previous year, making it the largest on record aside from the 2020 and 2021 fiscal years.

Since then, new figures show the U.S. ran a $624 billion deficit in the first two months of the current fiscal year, equating to borrowing of $10 billion per day — or $2.1 trillion on a rolling basis over the past 12 months, according to the CRFB.

“That’s an astonishing sum especially when considering the huge challenges ahead,” according to Maya MacGuineas, president of the CRFB. “If we intend to get serious about fiscal responsibility, we might as well start now.” 

GOP priorities

Extending the tax cuts are only one part of Trump’s fiscal platform, which includes plans to slash other taxes across the board — such as those on tips and overtime pay, along with the corporate-rate reduction.

Investors are watching closely for any signs of emerging fiscal stress. While Wall Street economists say extending the tax cuts would be positive for growth, they caution there are other dynamics at play too.

“It would be crucial for Trump 2.0 and Congress to complement the tax cuts with spending cuts,” said Stephen Jen, chief executive of Eurizon SLJ Capital. “It’s not just about tax cuts, it should be about a small government, which means lower spending.”

That means there’s less room for broader tax easing given the worsening fiscal outlook, according to David Seif, chief economist for developed markets at Nomura.

“If I’m wrong and there are further tax cuts, I doubt that there will truly be many pay-fors. I would instead expect reconciliation instructions to allow for a larger deficit,” he said, referring to the budget reconciliation process that Republicans are planning to use to pass the tax legislation, which will allow them to bypass the need for any Democratic support.

However the debate plays out, the underlying economic landscape of lingering inflation, a surging deficit and potential for slower economic growth all stack up to a very different starting point to the last time major tax cuts were debated. Martha Gimbel, executive director of The Budget Lab at Yale and a former White House economist under President Joe Biden, said that makes for an uncertain outcome.

“Policymakers need to remember that 2024 is not 2017,” she said. “Similar actions could see very different results.”

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Accounting

PwC AI agent acts proactively to preserve value

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Big Four firm PwC announced new agentic AI capacities, including a model that proactively identifies areas of value leakage and acts inside the tools teams already use to fix them itself. 

The new solution, Agent Powered Performance, combines continuous AI-driven insight with embedded execution to address the problem of businesses only finding problems when they have already hurt performance. By actively monitoring and working inside the client’s existing systems, though, PwC’s agents can actively and autonomously address such issues. 

The software, which is supported by PwC’s recently released Agent OS coordination platform, is  embedded in enterprise systems to sense where value is leaking, think through the most effective performance strategies using predictive models and industry benchmarks, and act directly in tools like ERP or CRM software to make improvements stick. 

The system connects directly into ERP environments, continuously monitors key metrics, and acts inside the tools teams already use. For example, a supply chain agent might detect rising shipping costs and automatically reroute deliveries to reduce spend. Finance agents can spot and correct billing errors before they reach the customer. Clients typically see measurable efficiency gains in the first quarter, with continued improvements over time as the system learns and adapts.

“Too many transformations still rely on one-off pilots and stale data, stretching the gap from insight to impact and suffocating ROI,” said Saurabh Sarbaliya, PwC’s principal for enterprise strategy and value. “Agent Powered Performance flips the economics by distilling PwC’s industry transformation playbooks into AI agents that turn static insights into compounding gains, without rebooting each time.”

Agent Powered Performance is platform-agnostic and built on an open architecture so it can work across different LLMs based on client preferences and task-specific needs. It works with major enterprise platforms including Oracle, SAP, Workday and Guidewire.

Agent OS Model Context Protocol

PwC also announced that its Agent OS AI coordination platform now supports the Model Context Protocol, an open standard from Amazon-backed AI company Anthropic. 

By integrating this standard, agent systems registered as MCP servers can be used by any authorized AI agent. This reduces redundant integration work and the overhead of writing custom logic for each new use case. By standardizing how agents invoke tools and handle responses, MCP also simplifies the interface between agents and enterprise systems, which will serve to reduce development time, lower testing complexity, and cut deployment risk. Finally, any interaction between an agent and an MCP server is authenticated, authorized and logged, and access policies are enforced at the protocol level, which means that compliance and control are native to the system—not layered on after the fact. 

This means that agents are no longer siloed. Instead, they can operate as part of a coordinated, governed system that can grow as needs evolve, as MCP support provides the interface to external tools and systems. This enables organizations to move beyond isolated pilots toward integrated systems where agents don’t just reason, but act inside real business workflows. It marks a shift from experimentation to adoption, from isolated tools to scalable, governed intelligence.

Research Composer

Finally, a PwC spokesperson said the firm has also launched a new internal tool for its professionals called Research Composer, a patent-pending AI research agent embedded in the firm’s ChatPwC suite, designed to accelerate insight generation by combining web data with PwC-uploaded content. 

Professionals will use the Research Composer to produce in-depth, citation-backed reports for either the firm or its clients. The solution is intended to enhance the quality of client work by equipping teams with research and strategic analysis capabilities. 

The AI agent prompts users through a step-by-step research workflow, allowing them to shape how reports are packaged—tailoring the output to meet strategic needs. For example, a manager in advisory services might use Research Composer to evaluate white space opportunities across industries or geographies, drawing from internal reports and up-to-date market data.

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Accounting

Eide Bailly merges in Traner Smith

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Eide Bailly, a Top 25 Firm based in Fargo, North Dakota, is growing its presence in the Pacific Northwest by adding Traner Smith, based in Edmonds, Washington, effective June 2, 2025. 

Traner Smith’s team includes two partners and 16 staff members and specializes in tax compliance and advisory services. Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed. Eide Bailly ranked No. 19 on Accounting Today‘s 2025 list of the Top 100 Firms, with $704.98 million in annual revenue, approximately 387 partners and over 3,500 employees. 

Eide Bailly already has offices in Seattle, but hopes to grow further in the Pacific Northwest. “We’re pleased to welcome the talented team at Traner Smith to Eide Bailly,” said Eide Bailly managing partner and CEO Jeremy Hauk in a statement Monday. “Their expertise with high-net-worth individuals, real estate and privately held businesses aligns well with our strengths, and their client-centric approach is a perfect cultural fit. Having an office in Edmonds, Washington, is a great complement to our existing presence in Seattle. Together, we’re poised to deliver even greater value to families and businesses in the Seattle metro area.” 

“Joining Eide Bailly is a natural next step for us — it provides access to deeper technical resources in areas like state and local tax, national tax, succession planning and international tax while allowing us to continue the personalized service our clients value,” said Kevin Smith, a partner at Traner Smith, in a statement. 

“With this expanded support and platform, we’re excited to grow our reach, elevate what we do best, and help more clients than ever before,” said Shane Summer, another partner at Traner Smith, in a statement.

Eide Bailly has announced several other mergers in recent weeks. Earlier this month, it added Hamilton Tharp, a firm based in Solana Beach, California, and Roycon, a Salesforce consulting firm in Austin, Texas. In late April, it merged in Volpe Brown & Co., in North Canton, Ohio. Eide Bailly expanded to Ohio last year by merging in Apple Growth Partners. Last year, Eide Bailly also sold its wealth management practice to Sequoia Financial Group. The deal with Sequoia appears to be fueling the recent M&A activity. As part of the deal, Eide Bailly Advisors became part of Sequoia Financial, while Eide Bailly received an equity investment in Sequoia.

In 2023, Eide Bailly added Secore & Niedzialek PC in Phoenix, Raimondo Pettit Group in Southern California, Bessolo Haworth in California and Washington State, Spectrum Health Partners in Franklin, Tennessee, and King & Oliason in Seattle. In 2022, it merged in Seim Johnson in Omaha, Nebraska, and in 2021, PWB CPAs & Advisors in Minnesota. In 2020, it added Mukai, Greenlee & Co. in Phoenix, HMWC CPAs in Tustin, California, and Platinum Consulting in Fullerton.

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Accounting

BMSS announces investment, collaboration with Knuula

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Top 100 firm BMSS announced an investment in Knuula, an engagement letter and client documents software provider. The investment from BMSS came after successfully implementing Knuula over the past year to streamline its engagement letter process. It was after doing so that the firm’s leadership came to believe that Knuula could create complex client documents at an enormous scale, which was a huge need for the broader accounting industry. BMSS thought this presented a great opportunity to guide Knuula and help facilitate its growth. 

“We began working with Knuula in Spring 2024 to streamline our engagement letter process,” said Don Murphy, Managing Member of BMSS. “It quickly became clear that Knuula was not only a strong solution for us, but also an ideal partner in advancing industry-wide automation.”

While the specific terms of the deal were not disclosed, a spokesperson with Knuula said that, after this investment, BMSS and a collection of 21 of their partners now own 13% of the company. The investment represents not some passive revenue deal but an active collaboration between the two companies, with the spokesperson saying they will be working closely together on things like product development, new features, improvements, and networking.

The deal comes about a year after Knuula integrated with QuickFee, a receivables management platform for professional service providers, which allowed users to have engagement letters directly connecting to their QuickFee billing platform, tying the execution of the letter directly to the billing process. 

“We’ve long sought to partner with a firm focused on strategic innovation in the accounting space,” said Jamie Peebles, founder of Knuula. “To develop a perfect solution for large firms, it is ideal to have a partner that is willing to work closely together and iterate quickly. This requires constant feedback between our two teams. The IT team from BMSS worked with our development team constantly and helped us iterate rapidly. We also had consistent input from partners, manager, and administrative staff to help us make valuable changes to Knuula. BMSS was a perfect partner for us.”

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