The Federal Reserve heads into its closely watched policy decision Wednesday with a strong incentive to do absolutely nothing.

Faced with unresolved questions over President Donald Trump’s tariffs and an economy that is signaling both significant strengths and weaknesses, central bank policymakers can do little for now except sit and wait as events unfold.

“It’s going to be awkward at this meeting. The Fed doesn’t have a forecast to convey anything about the next couple meetings,” said Vincent Reinhart, a former long-time Fed official and now chief economist at BNY Investments. “The Fed’s got to wait for two things: It’s to see that the policy actually goes into place … But then, when it’s demonstrated, it’s got to see how inflation expectations react. So that’s why the Fed’s got to delay, then go slow.”

Indeed, futures market pricing is implying almost no chance of an interest rate cut at this week’s meeting, and only about a 1-in-3 probability of a move at the June 17-18 session, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge.

Market expectations have shifted over the past week in response both to mixed economic signals as well as signs that President Donald Trump is getting at least a bit less aggressive in his tariff approach. The White House has signaled that several trade deals are nearing completion, though none have been announced yet.

Reinhart said his firm has two cuts plugged in for this year, a bit tighter of a path than the market expectations for three reductions starting in July. A week ago, markets were betting on as many as four cuts, starting in June.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be left at his post-meeting news conference to explain the thinking from him and his colleagues on where they see policy heading.

“The other unsatisfying part is they don’t know what they’re going to do in June,” Reinhart said. “So he’s going to have to say everything’s on the table. He always says it, but this time, he’s going to have to mean it.”

Powell, though, is sure to face questioning about how policymakers see the recent barrage of data, which has painted a picture of economy loaded with pessimism from consumers and business executives that has yet to feed into hard numbers such as spending and employment.

While gross domestic product fell at a 0.3% annualized rate in the first quarter, it was largely the product of a surge in imports ahead of Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement. The April nonfarm payrolls report showed that hiring continued at a solid pace, with the economy adding a better-than-expected 177,000 jobs for the month.

At the same time, manufacturing and service sector surveys show deep concern about inflation and supply impacts from tariffs. Also, consumer optimism is at multi-year lows while inflation expectations are at multi-decade highs.

It all adds up to a tightrope for Powell and Co. to walk at least through the June meeting.

One wild card in the equation: Trump, as he did during his first term, has been urging the Fed to cut rates as inflation edges closer to the central bank’s 2% objective.

However, Reinhart, the BNY economist, does not see the Fed bending to Trump’s will nor breaking ranks despite public statements from some members showing division on policy.

“The White House has done Jay Powell a favor in keeping his committee together. Because generally, when a family is criticized from from the outside, it’s less willing to criticize each other,” Reinhart said. “Do you criticize Jay Powell now and line yourself up the president? Probably not, if you worked your whole life in the Federal Reserve system.”

“The Art of the Deal” author President Donald Trump said in a surprising comment Tuesday that the United States does not need to “sign deals” with trade partners, despite top White House officials claiming for weeks that such deals are the administration’s top priority.

“Everyone says, ‘when, when, when are you going to sign deals?'” Trump grumbled during a White House meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.

“We don’t have to sign deals, they have to sign deals with us. They want a piece of our market. We don’t want a piece of their market,” Trump said.

After weeks of touting how many countries were asking for bilateral trade talks with the United States, the president and his team have yet to announce any formal agreements or frameworks.

“I wish they’d … stop asking, how many deals are you signing this week?” said Trump, clearly frustrated at the mounting pressure on the White House to show progress on trade talks. “Because one day we’ll come and we’ll give you 100 deals,” he said.

Trump’s effort to deprioritize trade deals Tuesday marked a turn away from what his Treasury Secretary told CNBC the day before.

The U.S. is “very close to some deals,” Scott Bessent said on “Money Movers.”

Trump himself said Sunday on Air Force One that there “could very well be” trade deals rolled out this week. “At the end, I’m setting the deal,” he told reporters en route to Washington.

Speaking last week during a NewsNation town hall, Trump also said that his administration has “potential deals” with India, South Korea and Japan.

He also said last week that negotiations with India were “coming along great” and the U.S. will “likely have a deal with India.”

On Tuesday, however, Trump blamed top aides like Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick for overpromising trade deals.

“I think my people haven’t made it clear, we will sign some deals,” said Trump. “But much bigger than that is we’re going to put down the price that people are going to have to pay to shop in the United States. Think of us as a super luxury store, a store that has the goods.”

U.S. markets moved lower Tuesday afternoon after Trump made the comments about deals.

Investors and business leaders are desperately hoping the Trump administration can negotiate a series of bilateral agreements with major U.S. trading partners like Japan, South Korea and India before the full brunt of the tariff induced trade slowdown hits the U.S. economy.

But so far, the Trump administration has not provided any details about any specific deals. Instead, nearly every day, top aides publicly claim that several deals are “close” and could be announced within days.