Pictured here is a McDonald’s store in Yichang, Hubei province, China, on July 30, 2024.
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BEIJING — A theme emerging in the latest slew of U.S. companies’ earnings reports is a drag from the China market.
The Chinese economy — home to more than four times the population of the U.S. — has attracted multinational corporations for decades given its large, fast-growing market. But slower growth and intense local competition, amid tensions with the U.S., are now weighing on corporate earnings.
“Consumer sentiment in China is quite weak,” McDonald’s chairman, CEO and director Christopher Kempczinski, said of the quarter ended June 30.
“You’re seeing both in our industry and across a broad range of consumer industries, the consumer being very, very much deals seeking,” he added. “In fact, we’re seeing a lot of switching behavior in terms of just consumers, whatever is the best deal, that’s where they end up going.”
McDonald’s said sales for its international developmental licensed markets segment declined 1.3% from a year ago. The unit includes China, for which the company indicated sales declined but did not specify by how much.
Chinese companies have also struggled. Nationwide retail sales grew by just 2% in June from a year ago.
In the mainland China stock market, known as A shares, earnings likely hit a bottom in the first quarter and may “pick up mildly” in the second half of the year, Lei Meng, China equity strategist at UBS Securities, said in a July 23 note.
Several U.S. consumer giants echoed the downward trend in their latest earnings reports.
Apple said Greater China sales fell by 6.5% year-on-year in the quarter ended June 29. Johnson and Johnson said China is a “very volatile market” and a major business segment that’s performed below expectations.
After a “strong start” to the year, General Mills CFO Kofi Bruce said the quarter ending May 26 “saw a real souring or downturn in consumer sentiment,” hitting Haagen-Dazs store traffic and the company’s “premium dumpling business.” General Mills owns the Wanchai Ferry dumpling brand.
We don’t expect the return to the growth rates that we saw pre-Covid.
The regional results are also affecting longer-term corporate outlooks.
In China, “we don’t expect the return to the [double-digit] growth rates that we saw pre-Covid,” Procter and Gamble CFO Andre Schulten said on an earnings call last week. He expected that over time, China would improve to mid-single-digit growth, similar to that in developed markets.
Procter and Gamble said China sales for the quarter ending late June fell by 9%. Despite declining births in China, Schulten said the company was able to grow baby care product sales by 6% and increase market share thanks to a localization strategy.
Hotel operator Marriott International cut its revenue per available room (RevPAR) outlook for the year to 3% to 4% growth, due largely to expectations that Greater China will remain weak, as well as softer performance in the U.S. and Canada.
Marriott’s RevPAR Greater China fell by about 4% in the quarter ended June 30, partly affected by Chinese people choosing to travel abroad on top of a weaker-than-expected domestic recovery.
However, the company noted it signed a record number of projects in the first half of the year in China.
McDonald’s also affirmed its goal to open 1,000 new stores in China a year.
Domino’s said its China operator, DPC Dash, aims to have 1,000 stores in the country by the end of the year. Last week, DPC Dash said it had just over 900 stores as of the end of June, and that it expects first-half revenue growth of at least 45% to 2 billion yuan ($280 million).
Local competition
Coca-Cola noted “subdued” consumer confidence in China, where volumes fell in contrast to growth in Southeast Asia, Japan and South Korea. Asia Pacific net operating revenue fell by 4% year-on-year to $1.51 billion in the quarter ended June 28.
“There’s a general macro softness as the overall economy works through some of the structural issues around real estate, pricing, etc.,” Coca-Cola Chairman and CEO James Quincey said on an earnings call.
But he attributed the drop in China volumes “entirely” to the company’s shift from unprofitable water products in the country toward sparkling water, juice and teas. “I think the sparkling volume was slightly positive in China,” Quincey said.
Having to adapt to a new mix of products and promotions was a common occurrence in U.S. companies’ earnings calls.
“We’ve continued to face a more cautious consumer spending and intensified competition in the past year,” Starbucks CEO Laxman Narasimhan said on an earnings call. “Unprecedented store expansion and a mass segment price war at the expense of comp and profitability have also caused significant disruption to the operating environment.”
Chinese rival Luckin Coffee, whose drinks can cost half the price of one at Starbucks, reported a 20.9% drop in same-store sales for the quarter ended June 30.
But the company claimed sales for those stores surged by nearly 40% to the equivalent of $863.7 million. Luckin has more than 13,000 self-operated stores, primarily in China.
Starbucks said its 7,306 stores in China saw revenue drop by 11% to $733.8 million during the same quarter.
Both companies face many competitors in China, from Cotti Coffee on the lower end to Peet’s on the higher end. The only public disclosures regarding Peet’s China business described it as “strong double-digit organic sales growth” in the first half of the year.
Bright spots
Not all major consumer brands have reported such difficulties.
Canada Goose reported Greater China sales grew by 12.3% to 21.9 million Canadian dollars ($15.8 million) in the quarter ended June 30.
Nike reported 7% year-on-year growth in Greater China revenue — nearly 15% of its business — for the quarter ended May 31.
“While our outlook for the near term has softened, we remain confident in Nike’s competitive position in China in the long term,” said Matthew Friend, CFO and executive vice president of the company.
Adidas reported 9% growth in Greater China revenue for the quarter ended June 30. The region accounts for about 14% of the company’s total net revenue.
CEO Bjorn Gulden said on an earnings call that Adidas was taking market share in China every month, but local brands posed fierce competition. “Many of them are manufacturers that go then straight to retail with their own stores,” he said. “So the speed they have and the price value they have for that consumer was different than it was earlier. And we are trying to adjust to that.”
Skechers reported 3.4% year-on-year growth in China in the three months ended June 30.
“We continue to think China is on the road to recovery,” Skechers CFO John Vandemore said on an earnings call. “We expect a better second half of the year than what we’ve seen thus far, but we are watching things carefully.”
— CNBC’s Robert Hum and Sonia Heng contributed to this report.
People wait in line for T-shirts at a pop-up kiosk for the online brokerage Robinhood along Wall Street after the company went public with an initial public offering earlier in the day on July 29, 2021 in New York City.
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Robinhood shares sold off on Monday as the online brokerage was snubbed in the latest quarterly rebalance of the S&P 500 Index after months of speculation that it could earn a coveted spot in the benchmark.
Shares of Robinhood dropped nearly 5% in premarket trading. The stock has rallied 3.3% Friday to bring last week’s gain to over 13% before the S&P Dow Jones Indices said after the bell that the S&P 500 would remain unchanged.
Just last week, Bank of America called Robinhood a top candidate to join the S&P 500 during the big reshuffling in June. The S&P 500 rebalance, which typically comes on the third Friday of the last month in a quarter, is usually an impactful event as it can spark billions of dollars of trading and spur passive funds to snap up its shares. Companies being added to the index can generally expect funds like that to buy huge amounts of their shares in the coming weeks.
Crypto exchange Coinbase was the latest beneficiary of such an inclusion. The stock skyrocketed 24% in the next trading session following the announcement last month.
Still, Robinhood has had a major comeback this year so far with shares doubling in price. The online brokerage’s shares hit a fresh record high last week amid a rebound in both stocks and crypto. The company had fallen out of favor after the GameStop trading mania of 2021 fizzled and the collapse of FTX triggered a sell-off in digital assets.
LONDON — Britain’s financial services watchdog on Monday announced a new tie-up with U.S. chipmaker Nvidia to let banks safely experiment with artificial intelligence.
The Financial Conduct Authority said it will launch a so-called Supercharged Sandbox that will “give firms access to better data, technical expertise and regulatory support to speed up innovation.”
Starting from October, financial services institutions in the U.K. will be allowed to experiment with AI using Nvidia’s accelerated computing and AI Enterprise Software products, the watchdog said in a press release.
The initiative is designed for firms in the “discovery and experiment phase” with AI, the FCA noted, adding that a separate live testing service exists for firms further along in AI development.
“This collaboration will help those that want to test AI ideas but who lack the capabilities to do so,” Jessica Rusu, the FCA’s chief data, intelligence and information officer, said in a statement. “We’ll help firms harness AI to benefit our markets and consumers, while supporting economic growth.”
The FCA’s new sandbox addresses a key issue for banks, which have faced challenges shipping advanced new AI tools to their customers amid concerns over risks around privacy and fraud.
Large language models from the likes of OpenAI and Google send data back to overseas facilities — and privacy regulators have raised the alarm over how this information is stored and processed. There have meanwhile been several instances of malicious actors using generative AI to scam people.
Nvidia is behind the graphics processing units, or GPUs, used to train and run powerful AI models. The company’s CEO, Jensen Huang, is expected to give a keynote talk at a tech conference in London on Monday morning.
Last year, HSBC’s generative AI lead, Edward Achtner, told a London tech conference he sees “a lot of success theater” in finance when it comes to artificial intelligence — hinting that some financial services firms are touting advances in AI without tangible product innovations to show for it.
He added that, while banks like HSBC have used AI for many years, new generative AI tools like OpenAI’s ChatGPT come with their own unique compliance risks.
China’s electric car price war shows little sign of letting up, putting more pressure on companies to survive. Tesla ‘s China sales fell by 15% in May from a year ago, China Passenger Car Association data showed. BYD , in contrast, reported a 14% year-on-year sales increase as it held onto first place in the market by volume, but even it had to announce sharp discounts as sales growth slowed from April’s pace. “We expect additional price competition in the coming weeks as BYD is still lagging behind its sales target,” said a team of analyst led by CLSA analyst Xiao Feng in a report Wednesday. While the analysts still have a high conviction, with an outperform rating on BYD’s Hong Kong-listed shares, they see Geely as the ”best positioned” for investors as it is striking the optimal balance with its internal business structure and competing on vehicle price. CLSA has a price target of 483 Hong Kong dollars ($61.55) on BYD, and a 23 HKD target on Geely, also listed in Hong Kong. That’s upside of nearly 20%, and 28%, respectively, from Friday’s close. Geely is a large conglomerate with electric vehicle brands Galaxy, Zeekr and Lynk and Co., which share some of the same tech and manufacturing systems. “Geely’s Galaxy NEV brand has successfully targeted BYD’s popular models with better specs and lower prices,” Macquarie analysts said in a report Thursday, citing a call with an auto dealer who manages dealerships for BYD, Geely and Xpeng in the relatively affluent Suzhou region near Shanghai. “The expert believes Geely’s success will continue, as it is still ramping up new models to compete with BYD’s entire model line-up,” the report said. The Macquarie analysts have a price target of 22 HKD on Geely and rate the stock outperform. But they like U.S.-listed electric car startup Xpeng even more, with a $24 price target. Xpeng is likely to benefit from near-term market share gains given its advanced driver assist system and upcoming car models, the analysts said. The latest delivery data showed Xpeng delivered more than 30,000 cars in May for a seventh straight month, a rare feat among its immediate peers. The company last month also launched a new car under its lower-priced Mona brand. Among publicly listed new energy vehicle companies, a category that includes battery-only and hybrid-powered cars, Leapmotor and Li Auto have proven relatively stable, each with deliveries of more than 40,000 vehicles in May. Both companies have Hong Kong listings, while Li Auto also trades in New York. “Through a continuously expanding product matrix and cost-effective models, Leapmotor has achieved a stable market share in the Chinese mass EV market and has strong growth potential,” the CLSA analysts said. They have a price target of 72 HKD, or more than 30% upside from Friday’s close. Leapmotor reported a net loss in the first quarter, however, compared with profit in the fourth quarter. But Li Auto maintained profitability in the first quarter, according to results released on May 29. “We still see ample upside as a better-than-feared 1Q should inspire investor conviction about sequential recovery in 2Q,” Morgan Stanley analysts said in a May 29 report. They have a price target of $36, for upside of more than 20% from Thursday’s close. “The management team has found its pace for a steady and solid comeback, underpinning a more material resurgence of volume/margins into 2H25 amid new model launches,” the analysts added. “Li Auto’s premium model lineup can steer clear of the fierce pricing competition in the mass market.” Li Auto is best known for its SUVs that come with a gas tank for extending the battery’s driving range. Prices start around 244,000 yuan ($34,000). Industry giant BYD in contrast now sells some cars at 55,800 yuan, with most models falling in the 100,000 yuan to 200,000 yuan price range. The company also has a high-end sub-brand called Yangwang, which prices cars at well above 1 million yuan. Analysts that still like the stock see potential in BYD’s overseas expansion. The narrative on BYD among European investors “sounds more optimistic,” contrary to more cautious sentiment in China following the automaker’s recent price promotions, JPMorgan’s Nick Lai, head of Asia Pacific auto research said in a report Wednesday. Lai and his team also cited conversations with senior BYD management in London in the last week. “All in all, we retain our long-term positive view on the company and believe the (earnings) contribution from the overseas market and BYD’s premium portfolio will increasingly play an important role,” the JPMorgan analysts said. “We estimate that BYD’s overseas business and premium brands will together contribute over 40% of its vehicle earnings in 2025 (up from 20-25% last year) even though they account for only about 20% of volume.” The analysts rate BYD overweight, with a price target of 600 HKD. However, the risk of a flood of cheap cars into markets such as Europe have prompted tariff increases. In China, official commentary is also sounding the alarm about excessive competition. “We believe an end to the current price war will come down to simple economics,” the Macquarie analysts said, pointing out that production capacity for both electric and traditional vehicles is more than 50 million units, well above the annual wholesale volume of 25 million to 27 million vehicles. “Thus, the market will likely stabilize either via higher demand or right-sized capacity and consolidation,” the analysts said. “We believe this may take at least another three to five years.” — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.