Finance
U.S. consumer giants have one big sales problem: China
Published
9 months agoon

Pictured here is a McDonald’s store in Yichang, Hubei province, China, on July 30, 2024.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
BEIJING — A theme emerging in the latest slew of U.S. companies’ earnings reports is a drag from the China market.
The Chinese economy — home to more than four times the population of the U.S. — has attracted multinational corporations for decades given its large, fast-growing market. But slower growth and intense local competition, amid tensions with the U.S., are now weighing on corporate earnings.
“Consumer sentiment in China is quite weak,” McDonald’s chairman, CEO and director Christopher Kempczinski, said of the quarter ended June 30.
“You’re seeing both in our industry and across a broad range of consumer industries, the consumer being very, very much deals seeking,” he added. “In fact, we’re seeing a lot of switching behavior in terms of just consumers, whatever is the best deal, that’s where they end up going.”
McDonald’s said sales for its international developmental licensed markets segment declined 1.3% from a year ago. The unit includes China, for which the company indicated sales declined but did not specify by how much.

Chinese companies have also struggled. Nationwide retail sales grew by just 2% in June from a year ago.
In the mainland China stock market, known as A shares, earnings likely hit a bottom in the first quarter and may “pick up mildly” in the second half of the year, Lei Meng, China equity strategist at UBS Securities, said in a July 23 note.
Several U.S. consumer giants echoed the downward trend in their latest earnings reports.
Apple said Greater China sales fell by 6.5% year-on-year in the quarter ended June 29. Johnson and Johnson said China is a “very volatile market” and a major business segment that’s performed below expectations.
After a “strong start” to the year, General Mills CFO Kofi Bruce said the quarter ending May 26 “saw a real souring or downturn in consumer sentiment,” hitting Haagen-Dazs store traffic and the company’s “premium dumpling business.” General Mills owns the Wanchai Ferry dumpling brand.
The company’s China organic net sales fell by double digits during the quarter.
We don’t expect the return to the growth rates that we saw pre-Covid.
The regional results are also affecting longer-term corporate outlooks.
In China, “we don’t expect the return to the [double-digit] growth rates that we saw pre-Covid,” Procter and Gamble CFO Andre Schulten said on an earnings call last week. He expected that over time, China would improve to mid-single-digit growth, similar to that in developed markets.
Procter and Gamble said China sales for the quarter ending late June fell by 9%. Despite declining births in China, Schulten said the company was able to grow baby care product sales by 6% and increase market share thanks to a localization strategy.
Hotel operator Marriott International cut its revenue per available room (RevPAR) outlook for the year to 3% to 4% growth, due largely to expectations that Greater China will remain weak, as well as softer performance in the U.S. and Canada.
Marriott’s RevPAR Greater China fell by about 4% in the quarter ended June 30, partly affected by Chinese people choosing to travel abroad on top of a weaker-than-expected domestic recovery.
However, the company noted it signed a record number of projects in the first half of the year in China.
McDonald’s also affirmed its goal to open 1,000 new stores in China a year.
Domino’s said its China operator, DPC Dash, aims to have 1,000 stores in the country by the end of the year. Last week, DPC Dash said it had just over 900 stores as of the end of June, and that it expects first-half revenue growth of at least 45% to 2 billion yuan ($280 million).
Local competition
Coca-Cola noted “subdued” consumer confidence in China, where volumes fell in contrast to growth in Southeast Asia, Japan and South Korea. Asia Pacific net operating revenue fell by 4% year-on-year to $1.51 billion in the quarter ended June 28.
“There’s a general macro softness as the overall economy works through some of the structural issues around real estate, pricing, etc.,” Coca-Cola Chairman and CEO James Quincey said on an earnings call.
But he attributed the drop in China volumes “entirely” to the company’s shift from unprofitable water products in the country toward sparkling water, juice and teas. “I think the sparkling volume was slightly positive in China,” Quincey said.
Having to adapt to a new mix of products and promotions was a common occurrence in U.S. companies’ earnings calls.
“We’ve continued to face a more cautious consumer spending and intensified competition in the past year,” Starbucks CEO Laxman Narasimhan said on an earnings call. “Unprecedented store expansion and a mass segment price war at the expense of comp and profitability have also caused significant disruption to the operating environment.”
Starbucks reported China same-store sales dropped by 14% in the quarter ended June 30, far steeper than the 2% decline in the U.S.
Chinese rival Luckin Coffee, whose drinks can cost half the price of one at Starbucks, reported a 20.9% drop in same-store sales for the quarter ended June 30.
But the company claimed sales for those stores surged by nearly 40% to the equivalent of $863.7 million. Luckin has more than 13,000 self-operated stores, primarily in China.
Starbucks said its 7,306 stores in China saw revenue drop by 11% to $733.8 million during the same quarter.
Both companies face many competitors in China, from Cotti Coffee on the lower end to Peet’s on the higher end. The only public disclosures regarding Peet’s China business described it as “strong double-digit organic sales growth” in the first half of the year.
Bright spots
Not all major consumer brands have reported such difficulties.
Canada Goose reported Greater China sales grew by 12.3% to 21.9 million Canadian dollars ($15.8 million) in the quarter ended June 30.
Athletic shoe brands also reported growth in China, while warning of slowdown ahead.
Nike reported 7% year-on-year growth in Greater China revenue — nearly 15% of its business — for the quarter ended May 31.
“While our outlook for the near term has softened, we remain confident in Nike’s competitive position in China in the long term,” said Matthew Friend, CFO and executive vice president of the company.
Adidas reported 9% growth in Greater China revenue for the quarter ended June 30. The region accounts for about 14% of the company’s total net revenue.
CEO Bjorn Gulden said on an earnings call that Adidas was taking market share in China every month, but local brands posed fierce competition. “Many of them are manufacturers that go then straight to retail with their own stores,” he said. “So the speed they have and the price value they have for that consumer was different than it was earlier. And we are trying to adjust to that.”
Skechers reported 3.4% year-on-year growth in China in the three months ended June 30.
“We continue to think China is on the road to recovery,” Skechers CFO John Vandemore said on an earnings call. “We expect a better second half of the year than what we’ve seen thus far, but we are watching things carefully.”
— CNBC’s Robert Hum and Sonia Heng contributed to this report.
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Finance
These are 3 big things we’re watching in the stock market this week
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April 27, 2025
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U.S. brands are rapidly losing their appeal in China as locals increasingly prefer competitive homegrown players, especially as economic growth slows, according to a TD Cowen survey released Thursday. While overall preference for Western brands dropped to 9%, down from 14% last year, certain American companies face higher risks than others, the report said, citing in-person interviews of 2,000 consumers with varied income levels in larger Chinese cities. TD Cowen partnered with an unnamed Beijing-based advisory firm to conduct the survey in February 2025, following a similar study in May 2024. The analysts see Apple ranking among the better-positioned brands in China. But they warned that several other American companies face high regional risks despite management optimism. China’s top leaders on Friday acknowledged the growing effect of trade tensions, and pledged targeted measures for struggling businesses. The official readout stopped short of a full-on stimulus announcement. “This year’s survey was conducted before the US-China trade war intensified, though threats were on the horizon,” the TD Cowen analysts said. “Add this factor to the equation, and it’s easy to see why uncertainty will remain elevated and households are likely to remain cautious going forward.” The survey found income expectations declined, with the share of respondents expecting a decline in pay over the next 12 months rising to 10% from 6%. In particular, Chinese consumers plan to spend less on a beauty items over the next six months, the survey showed, while increasing their preference for Chinese brands. U.S. cosmetics giant Estée Lauder retained first place in terms of highest awareness among Western beauty brands in China, but preference among consumers dropped to 19.6% of respondents, down from 24.3% last year. That contrasted with increases in respondents expressing a preference for the second and third market players Lancome and Chanel, respectively. In the quarter that ended Dec. 31, Estée Lauder said its Asia Pacific net sales fell 11%, due partly to “subdued consumer sentiment in mainland China, Korea and Hong Kong.” Asia Pacific accounted for 32% of overall sales in the quarter. In the lucrative sportswear category, Nike “lost meaningful preference in every category” versus last year, while local competitors Li-Ning and Anta saw gains, the survey found. TD Cowen’s analysis showed that among U.S. sportswear brands facing the most earnings risk relative to consensus expectations, Nike has the highest China sales exposure at 15%. “The China market is one characterized as a growth opportunity for sport according to Nike management in its recent fiscal Q3:25 earnings call in March 2025,” the analysts said, “but that the macro offers an increasingly challenging operating environment.” It’s not necessarily about slower growth or nationalism. While the survey found a 4-percentage-point drop in preference for foreign apparel and footwear brands, it also showed a 3-percentage-point increase in the inclination to buy the “best” product regardless of origin. “The implied perception here is that Western brands are offering less in the way of best product or value,” the TD Cowen analysts said. Starbucks similarly is running into fierce local competition while trying to maintain prices one-third or more above that of competitor Luckin Coffee, the report said. The survey found that the U.S. coffee giant “lags peers in terms of value and quality perception improvement.” Other coffee brands such as Manner, Tim’s, Cotti, %Arabica and M Stand have also expanded recently in China. Starbucks’ same-store sales in China fell 6% year on year in the quarter that ended Dec. 29, bringing the region’s share of total revenue to just under 8%. More worrisome is that a highly anticipated coffee boom in China may not materialize. “We note daily and weekly frequency of purchase among coffee drinkers are decreasing, suggesting the coffee habit seen in the U.S. is not taking hold in China,” the analysts said. They noted a new ownership structure for Starbucks‘ China business would be positive for the stock given the lack of near-term catalysts. TD Cowen rates Starbucks a buy, but has hold ratings on Nike and Estée Lauder.
Finance
Apple iPhone assembly in India won’t cushion China tariffs: Moffett
Published
24 hours agoon
April 26, 2025

Leading analyst Craig Moffett suggests any plans to move U.S. iPhone assembly to India is unrealistic.
Moffett, ranked as a top analyst multiple times by Institutional Investor, sent a memo to clients on Friday after the Financial Times reported Apple was aiming to shift production toward India from China by the end of next year.
He’s questioning how a move could bring down costs tied to tariffs because the iPhone components would still be made in China.
“You have a tremendous menu of problems created by tariffs, and moving to India doesn’t solve all the problems. Now granted, it helps to some degree,” the MoffettNathanson partner and senior managing director told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Friday. “I would question how that’s going to work.”
Moffett contends it’s not so easy to diversify to India — telling clients Apple’s supply chain would still be anchored in China and would likely face resistance.
“The bottom line is a global trade war is a two-front battle, impacting costs and sales. Moving assembly to India might (and we emphasize might) help with the former. The latter may ultimately be the bigger issue,” he wrote to clients.
Moffett cut his Apple price target on Monday to $141 from $184 a share. It implies a 33% drop from Friday’s close. The price target is also the Street low, according to FactSet.
“I don’t think of myself as the biggest Apple bear,” he said. “I think quite highly of Apple. My concern about Apple has been the valuation more than the company.”
Moffett has had a “sell” rating on Apple since Jan. 7. Since then, the company’s shares are down about 14%.
“None of this is because Apple is a bad company. They still have a great balance sheet [and] a great consumer franchise,” he said. “It’s just the reality of there are no good answers when you are a product company, and your products are going to be significantly tariffed, and you’re heading into a market that is likely to have at least some deceleration in consumer demand because of the macro economy.”
Moffett notes Apple also isn’t getting help from its carriers to cushion the blow of tariffs.
“You also have the demand destruction that’s created by potentially higher prices. Remember, you had AT&T, Verizon and T. Mobile all this week come out and say we’re not going to underwrite the additional cost of tariff [on] handsets,” he added. “The consumer is going to have to pay for that. So, you’re going to have some demand destruction that’s going to show up in even longer holding periods and slower upgrade rates — all of which probably trims estimates next year’s consensus.”
According to Moffett, the backlash against Apple in China over U.S. tariffs will also hurt iPhone sales.
“It’s a very real problem,” Moffett said. “Volumes are really going to the Huaweis and the Vivos and the local competitors in China rather than to Apple.”
Apple stock is coming off a winning week — up more than 6%. It comes ahead of the iPhone maker’s quarterly earnings report due next Thursday after the market close.
To get more personalized investment strategies, join us for our next “Fast Money” Live event on Thursday, June 5, at the Nasdaq in Times Square.

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