Finance

UBS CEO Ermotti says it is too early to talk about a U.S. recession

Published

5 months ago

August 14, 2024

Business Finance News

Sergio Ermotti, chief executive officer of UBS Group

Stefan Wermuth | Bloomberg | Getty Images

ZURICH, Switzerland ꟷ UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti said Wednesday that market volatility could intensify in the second half of the year, but he does not believe the U.S. is heading into a recession.

Global equities saw sharp sell-offs last week as investors digested weak economic data out of the U.S. which raised fears about an economic downturn in the world’s largest economy. It also raised questions about whether the Federal Reserve needed to be less hawkish with its monetary policy stance. The central bank kept rates on hold in late July at a 23-year high.

When asked about the outlook for the U.S. economy, Ermotti said: “Not necessarily a recession, but definitely a slowdown is possible.”

“The macroeconomic indicators are not clear enough to talk about recessions, and actually, it’s probably premature. What we know is that the Fed has enough capacity to step in and support that, although it’s going to take time, whatever they do to be then transmitted into the economy,” the CEO told CNBC on Wednesday after the bank reported its second-quarter results.

UBS expects that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by at least 50 basis points this year. At the moment, traders are split between a 50 and a 25 basis point cut at the Fed’s next meeting in September, according to LSEG data.

Speaking to CNBC, Ermotti said that we are likely to see higher market volatility in the second half of the year, partially because of the U.S. election in November.

“That’s one factor, but also, if I look at the overall geopolitical picture, if I look at the macroeconomic picture, what we saw in the last couple of weeks in terms of volatility, which, in my point of view, is a clear sign of the fragility of some elements of the system, … one should expect definitely a higher degree of volatility,” he said.

Another uncertainty going forward is monetary policy and whether central banks will have to cut rates more aggressively to combat a slowdown in the economy. In Switzerland, where UBS is headquartered, the central bank has cut rates twice this year. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England have both announced one cut so far.

“Knowing the events which are the unknowns on the horizon like the U.S. presidential election, we became complacent with a very low volatility, now we are shifting to a more normal regime,” Bruno Verstraete, founder of Lakefield Wealth Management told CNBC Wednesday.

“In the context of UBS, [more volatility is] not necessarily a bad thing, because more volatility means more trading income,” he added.

Finance

Market speculation picks up to start 2025 as crypto stocks jump

Published

2 hours ago

January 2, 2025

Business Finance News

Traders work at the New York Stock Exchange on Dec. 31, 2024.

NYSE

Crypto trades jumping. Roaring Kitty boosting meme stocks. Broader market ripping on no apparent catalysts.

Animal spirits are on the run at the dawn of 2025 trading.

Many speculative pockets of the stock market surged in early trading Thursday, the first session of the new year, right after the S&P 500 closed out the best two-year run since 1998.

Stocks tied to the price of bitcoin jumped as the cryptocurrency climbed back over $96,000. Microstrategy added 4% premarket after climbing more than 360% in 2024. Crypto-related companies Coinbase, Robinhood, Mara Holdings and Riot Platforms also traded higher after a big 2024.

Elsewhere, retail traders active on social media were busy playing a guessing game after online personality Roaring Kitty posted another cryptic message on X of a short clip of the late musician Rick James. Some believe the meme stock leader, AKA Keith Gill, was referring to Unity Software, whose stock soared 10% in premarket, while others think he’s back touting his original favorite GameStop, whose shares also caught a bid in premarket.

Meanwhile, semiconductor stocks — 2024’s big winners — helped lead the market again after the artificial intelligence trade lost some steam at the end of last year. Broadcom jumped 2% Thursday, while Nvidia gained 1.6%.

What’s more, golf stock Topgolf Callaway Brands jumped 8.5% on the back of an upgrade at Jefferies to buy from hold. The investment bank said shares of the golf equipment maker looked oversold and raised its price target to 65% above where the stock closed the year.

With a pickup in market speculation, broad stock futures were on the rise to kick off 2025. Dow futures advanced as much as 300 points. S&P 500 futures added 0.8%, and Nasdaq-100 futures rose 1%.

Thursday’s dramatic moves resembled the initial rallies on the back of Donald Trump’s election victory in November, as investors bet his pro-business policies would drive companies and the economy to strong growth. Those gains slowed toward the end of 2024 as concern grew that the president-elect’s protectionist policies could stir inflation or disrupt chains, and as the Federal Reserve signaled fewer interest rate cuts in 2025.

“Many investors assume that the incoming administration’s push for deregulation will unleash ‘animal spirits,'” Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said in a recent note to clients. “But what if it only accelerates the concentration of monopoly power in the hands of a few, diluting the efficacy of broad economic measures and leaving behind even larger swaths of the populace?”