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UK second quarter GDP

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The U.K. economy grew by 0.6% in the second quarter of the year, the Office for National Statistics said Thursday, continuing the country’s cautious recession rebound.

The reading was in line with the expectations of economists polled by Reuters and follows an expansion of 0.7% in the first quarter.

Economic growth was flat in June, in line with a Reuters poll, as activity in the U.K.’s dominant services sector dipped 0.1%. Construction and production output rose by a respective 0.5% and 0.8% in the month.

The British economy has recorded slight but steady growth almost every month so far this year, as the U.K. exits a shallow recession. GDP was also flat in April, when wet weather quelled retail sales and construction output.

On an annual basis the economy was 0.9% bigger in the second quarter, against a forecast of 0.8%.

“These figures confirm that the UK’s recovery from recession picked up steam in the second quarter, despite strike action and wet weather causing activity to flatline in June,” Suren Thiru, economics director at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, said in a note.

“The UK’s strong second quarter owes more to temporary momentum from the large recent falls in inflation and a boost to consumer spending from events like Euro 2024 than from a meaningful improvement in the UK’s underlying growth trajectory,” Thiru continued.

The pace of growth is unlikely to continue into the second half amid weaker wage growth, high interest rates and supply challenges, Thiru added.

U.K. inflation rose to 2.2% in July, data published Wednesday by the ONS showed, coming in slightly below a consensus forecast of 2.3%. The headline figure had been at the Bank of England’s 2% target rate for the two months prior, helping spur the central bank’s decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the start of August.

The July figures were described by analysts as supportive of consistent monetary easing through the rest of the year, despite stubbornness in services inflation.

Over the April-June period, U.K. wage growth excluding bonuses cooled to a two-year low, but remained relatively hot at 5.4%.

Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot, said lower interest rates should “help stimulate more economic growth by making borrowing more affordable for households and businesses” in the coming months — but noted that it would take time for the impact to be felt.

The British pound ticked slightly higher following Thursday’s GDP release, and was up by 0.1% against the U.S. dollar and 0.2% against the euro at 7:35 a.m. in London.

Institutions including the International Monetary Fund, investment bank Goldman Sachs and the Bank of England have all hiked their growth forecasts for the U.K. economy in recent months. The IMF now sees growth of 0.7% this year, up from 0.5% previously.

Factors cited include the decline in inflation and reforms to planning and business rules planned by the new Labour government, which took office in July. Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Finance Minister Rachel Reeves have repeatedly stated that boosting economic growth will be the bedrock of their policymaking, setting a target for the U.K. to achieve the fastest per capita GDP growth among the Group of 7 nations.

“The new Government is under no illusion as to the scale of the challenge we have inherited after more than a decade of low economic growth and a £22 billion black hole in the public finances,” Reeves said in a statement Thursday.

Labour is due to deliver its first budget on Oct. 30, with analysts saying the announcement will give more clarity on the government’s fiscal strategy and plans for changes to taxation and public spending.

Because of this, “it is unlikely that we will see a marked acceleration in GDP in the short term,” said Quilter Cheviot’s Richard Carter.

“For now, the economy is expected to continue on its relatively moderate growth path, bolstered by wage growth that remains ahead of inflation and the recent easing of monetary policy,” he added.

Economics

UK inflation September 2024

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The Canary Wharf business district is seen in the distance behind autumnal leaves on October 09, 2024 in London, United Kingdom.

Dan Kitwood | Getty Images News | Getty Images

LONDON — Inflation in the U.K. dropped sharply to 1.7% in September, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the headline rate to come in at a higher 1.9% for the month, in the first dip of the print below the Bank of England’s 2% target since April 2021.

Inflation has been hovering around that level for the last four months, and came in at 2.2% in August.

Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, came in at 3.2% for the month, down from 3.6% in August and below the 3.4% forecast of a Reuters poll.

Price rises in the services sector, the dominant portion of the U.K. economy, eased significantly to 4.9% last month from 5.6% in August, now hitting its lowest rate since May 2022.

Core and services inflation are key watch points for Bank of England policymakers as they mull whether to cut interest rates again at their November meeting.

As of Wednesday morning, market pricing put an 80% probability on a November rate cut ahead of the latest inflation print. Analysts on Tuesday said lower wage growth reported by the ONS this week had supported the case for a cut. The BOE reduced its key rate by 25 basis points in August before holding in September.

Within the broader European region, inflation in the euro zone dipped below the European Central Bank’s 2% target last month, hitting 1.8%, according to the latest data.

This is a breaking news story and will be updated shortly.

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Why Larry Hogan’s long-odds bid for a Senate seat matters

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FEW REPUBLICAN politicians differ more from Donald Trump than Larry Hogan, the GOP Senate candidate in Maryland. Consider the contrasts between a Trump rally and a Hogan event. Whereas Mr Trump prefers to take the stage and riff in front of packed arenas, Mr Hogan spent a recent Friday night chatting with locals at a waterfront wedding venue in Baltimore County. Mr Hogan’s stump speech, at around ten minutes, felt as long as a single off-script Trump tangent. Mr Trump delights in defying his advisers; Mr Hogan fastidiously sticks to talking points about bipartisanship, good governance and overcoming tough odds. Put another way, Mr Hogan’s campaign is something Mr Trump is rarely accused of being: boring. But it is intriguing.

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Economics

Polarisation by education is remaking American politics

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DEPENDING ON where exactly you find yourself, western Pennsylvania can feel Appalachian, Midwestern, booming or downtrodden. No matter where, however, this part of the state feels like the centre of the American political universe. Since she became the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Kamala Harris has visited Western Pennsylvania six times—more often than Philadelphia, on the other side of the state. She will mark her seventh on a trip on October 14th, to the small city of Erie, where Donald Trump also held a rally recently. Democratic grandees flit through Pittsburgh regularly. It is where Ms Harris chose to unveil the details of her economic agenda, and it is where Barack Obama visited on October 10th to deliver encouragement and mild chastisement. “Do not just sit back and hope for the best,” he admonished. “Get off your couch and vote.”

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