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UK second quarter GDP

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The U.K. economy grew by 0.6% in the second quarter of the year, the Office for National Statistics said Thursday, continuing the country’s cautious recession rebound.

The reading was in line with the expectations of economists polled by Reuters and follows an expansion of 0.7% in the first quarter.

Economic growth was flat in June, in line with a Reuters poll, as activity in the U.K.’s dominant services sector dipped 0.1%. Construction and production output rose by a respective 0.5% and 0.8% in the month.

The British economy has recorded slight but steady growth almost every month so far this year, as the U.K. exits a shallow recession. GDP was also flat in April, when wet weather quelled retail sales and construction output.

On an annual basis the economy was 0.9% bigger in the second quarter, against a forecast of 0.8%.

“These figures confirm that the UK’s recovery from recession picked up steam in the second quarter, despite strike action and wet weather causing activity to flatline in June,” Suren Thiru, economics director at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, said in a note.

“The UK’s strong second quarter owes more to temporary momentum from the large recent falls in inflation and a boost to consumer spending from events like Euro 2024 than from a meaningful improvement in the UK’s underlying growth trajectory,” Thiru continued.

The pace of growth is unlikely to continue into the second half amid weaker wage growth, high interest rates and supply challenges, Thiru added.

U.K. inflation rose to 2.2% in July, data published Wednesday by the ONS showed, coming in slightly below a consensus forecast of 2.3%. The headline figure had been at the Bank of England’s 2% target rate for the two months prior, helping spur the central bank’s decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the start of August.

The July figures were described by analysts as supportive of consistent monetary easing through the rest of the year, despite stubbornness in services inflation.

Over the April-June period, U.K. wage growth excluding bonuses cooled to a two-year low, but remained relatively hot at 5.4%.

Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot, said lower interest rates should “help stimulate more economic growth by making borrowing more affordable for households and businesses” in the coming months — but noted that it would take time for the impact to be felt.

The British pound ticked slightly higher following Thursday’s GDP release, and was up by 0.1% against the U.S. dollar and 0.2% against the euro at 7:35 a.m. in London.

Institutions including the International Monetary Fund, investment bank Goldman Sachs and the Bank of England have all hiked their growth forecasts for the U.K. economy in recent months. The IMF now sees growth of 0.7% this year, up from 0.5% previously.

Factors cited include the decline in inflation and reforms to planning and business rules planned by the new Labour government, which took office in July. Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Finance Minister Rachel Reeves have repeatedly stated that boosting economic growth will be the bedrock of their policymaking, setting a target for the U.K. to achieve the fastest per capita GDP growth among the Group of 7 nations.

“The new Government is under no illusion as to the scale of the challenge we have inherited after more than a decade of low economic growth and a £22 billion black hole in the public finances,” Reeves said in a statement Thursday.

Labour is due to deliver its first budget on Oct. 30, with analysts saying the announcement will give more clarity on the government’s fiscal strategy and plans for changes to taxation and public spending.

Because of this, “it is unlikely that we will see a marked acceleration in GDP in the short term,” said Quilter Cheviot’s Richard Carter.

“For now, the economy is expected to continue on its relatively moderate growth path, bolstered by wage growth that remains ahead of inflation and the recent easing of monetary policy,” he added.

Economics

Why stricter voting laws no longer help Republicans

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“The Republicans should pray for rain”—the title of a paper published by a trio of political scientists in 2007—has been an axiom of American elections for years. The logic was straightforward: each inch of election-day showers, the study found, dampened turnout by 1%. Lower turnout gave Republicans an edge because the party’s affluent electorate had the resources to vote even when it was inconvenient. Their opponents, less so.

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Economics

Why the president must not be lexicographer-in-chief

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Who decides what legal terms mean? If it is Donald Trump, God help America

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Economics

Inflation rate slipped to 2.1% in April, lower than expected, Fed’s preferred gauge shows

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Inflation rate slipped to 2.1% in April, lower than expected, Fed’s preferred gauge shows

Inflation barely budged in April as tariffs President Donald Trump implemented in the early part of the month had yet to show up in consumer prices, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s key inflation measure, increased just 0.1% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.1%. The monthly reading was in line with the Dow Jones consensus forecast while the annual level was 0.1 percentage point lower.

Excluding food and energy, the core reading that tends to get even greater focus from Fed policymakers showed readings of 0.1% and 2.5%, against respective estimates of 0.1% and 2.6%.

Consumer spending, though, slowed sharply for the month, posting just a 0.2% increase, in line with the consensus but slower than the 0.7% rate in March. A more cautious consumer mood also was reflected in the personal savings rate, which jumped to 4.9%, up from 0.6 percentage point in March to the highest level in nearly a year.

Personal income surged 0.8%, a slight increase from the prior month but well ahead of the forecast for 0.3%.

Markets showed little reaction to the news, with stock futures continuing to point lower and Treasury yields mixed.

People shop at a grocery store in Brooklyn on May 13, 2025 in New York City.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

Trump has been pushing the Fed to lower its key interest rate as inflation has continued to gravitate back to the central bank’s 2% target. However, policymakers have been hesitant to move as they await the longer-term impacts of the president’s trade policy.

On Thursday, Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell held their first face-to-face meeting since the president started his second term. However, a Fed statement indicated the future path of monetary policy was not discussed and stressed that decisions would be made free of political considerations.

Trump slapped across-the-board 10% duties on all U.S. imports, part of an effort to even out a trading landscape in which the U.S. ran a record $140.5 billion deficit in March. In addition to the general tariffs, Trump launched selective reciprocal tariffs much higher than the 10% general charge.

Since then, though, Trump has backed off the more severe tariffs in favor of a 90-day negotiating period with the affected countries. Earlier this week, an international court struck down the tariffs, saying Trump exceeded his authority and didn’t prove that national security was threatened by the trade issues.

Then in the latest installment of the drama, an appeals court allowed a White House effort for a temporary stay of the order from the U.S. Court of International Trade.

Economists worry that tariffs could spark another round of inflation, though the historical record shows that their impact is often minimal.

At their policy meeting earlier this month, Fed officials also expressed worry about potential tariff inflation, particularly at a time when concerns are rising about the labor market. Higher prices and slower economic growth can yield stagflation, a phenomenon the U.S. hasn’t seen since the early 1980s.

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