Italy’s second-largest lender UniCredit on Tuesday posted a fourth-quarter profit beat, raising shareholder returns amid market focus on the bank’s M&A overtures.
Net profit attributable to the group came in at 1.969 billion euros ($2.03 billion) in the fourth quarter, compared with an analyst forecast of 1.803 billion euros, according to a LSEG-compiled consensus.
Revenues reached 6 billion euros over the period, versus analyst expectations of 5.898 billion euros.
Other fourth-quarter highlights included:
Return on tangible equity of 11.5%, compared with 19.7% in the third quarter.
CET 1 capital ratio, a measure of bank solvency, was 15.9% from 16.1% in the previous three-month stretch.
The lender, whose full-year net profit added an annual 8.1% to 9.31 billion euros, pledged bolstered shareholder returns in 2025, upping its cash dividend pay-out guidance to 50% of net profit, from 40% in 2024. UniCredit also said it targets a RoTE performance above 17% this year, compared with the 17.7% of 2024.
In a statement accompanying the results, CEO Andrea Orcel said UniCredit was progressing onto the next phase of its strategy and will accelerate its “growth, aspiring to further widen the gap with our competitors, close our valuation gap, and cementing UniCredit as the bank of Europe’s future and benchmark for banking.”
UniCredit has been at the epicenter of Italy’s nascent push for consolidation since the second half of last year, following its surprise build — and later increase — of a stake in Germany’s Commerzbank, and its takeover offer for domestic peer Banco BPM at the end of 2024. The Italian lender has so far rejected UniCredit’s opening play, but CEO Andrea Orcel told Bloomberg his opening bid for Banco BPM was only a “fair starting point.”
The German administration has decried UniCredit’s “very aggressive, very opaque, untransparent” bid for Commerzbank, with Rome likewise resistant on the domestic front, amid broader government plans to form a third Italian banking titan alongside Intesa Saopaolo and UniCredit. Complicating the landscape of Italian dealmaking, UniCredit on Feb. 2 unveiled a 4.1% stake build in Italy’s top insurer Generali Group, but has stressed that “no strategic interest” motivates the venture.
Critically, Italy operates under so-called golden powers legislation which permits Rome to intercede or set conditions on foreign and domestic corporate takeovers in key sectors such as defense, energy, communications and banking.
Market participants are watching which of its twin-pronged suits UniCredit will commit to, or whether it will ambitiously keep both targets in sight.
Steve Eisman of “The Big Short” fame has a message for investors: Don’t be a hero because there’s more market downside ahead. Eisman, who’s known for successfully betting against the housing market ahead of the 2008 financial crisis, warns Wall Street isn’t done discounting worst-case scenarios tied to President Donald Trump’s tariffs. “The issue is that everybody of our social class took Econ 101, and we were all taught the same thing: Trade good, tariffs bad, trade war terrible,” the former Neuberger Berman senior portfolio manager told CNBC’s “Fast Money ” on Monday. “Now, you have a president of the United States who doesn’t seem to accept that paradigm, and people find that extremely jarring.” But Eisman, who launched the “The Eisman Playbook” podcast this month, doubts the current trade situation will turn into ” tariff Armageddon .” “If countries are rational, Canada and Mexico would come to the United States and basically beg, ‘We’ll do what you want.’… Those two countries hold no cards. Now, Europe is not much better,” he said. “If reasonable heads prevail, Trump will get pretty much what he wants.” On Monday, the Dow saw its largest intraday swing on record — swinging 2,595 points. At the day’s low, it was off 1,703 points. The Dow ultimately lost 349 points and the Nasdaq Composite squeezed out a 0.1% gain. Meanwhile, the S & P 500 fell 0.2%. ‘I’m long only. I’ve lost plenty.’ “There’s the people in the markets who are upset that they have lost money,” said Eisman. “I’m not going to kid you. I’m one of those people. I’m long only. I’ve lost plenty.” He prefers to look at the bigger picture — particularly those who have gotten hurt by free trade. “GDP is not just a number. It’s people. If you’ve traveled parts of this country like I have and you go through the Midwest and parts of the South, it doesn’t look so good.” noted Eisman. “[President] Clinton ushered in with [North American Free Trade Agreement] and the [World Trade Organization] a massive bull market that everybody around this table including me has benefited enormously from. But not everybody in the country has benefited, and what is being proposed here is to benefit those people.” Eisman thinks Wall Street should have seen President Trump’s tariff policy coming. “He has told you that he was going to do this for years, and now he has gone and done it,” Eisman added. “Everybody is shocked that he fulfilled his promise. They didn’t take him seriously.” The wildcard, according to Eisman, is politics. “Are politicians going to be rational or not,” he said. ” In a trade war , everybody will suffer. The U.S. will suffer the least.” Disclaimer
Check out the companies making headlines in after-hours trading: Health-care stocks — Shares of Humana , CVS Health and UnitedHealth jumped after The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration will raise payment rates for Medicare insurers next year to 5.06%, higher than the 2.23% increase the Biden administration had proposed. Humana gained more than 13%, while CVS Health and UnitedHealth advanced more than 7% and about 6%, respectively. Levi Strauss — The clothing stock rose more than 1% after the company reported its first-quarter results . Levi Strauss reported adjusted earnings of 38 cents per share, a 52% jump compared to the prior-year period. Revenue of $1.53 billion for the period also marked a 3% jump compared to last year. Greenbrier — Shares of the railcar manufacturer fell 4% on the back of the company dialing back its revenue guidance for the full year. Greenbrier now sees revenue ranging from $3.15 billion to $3.35 billion, compared to previous guidance of $3.35 billion to $3.65 billion. Dave & Buster’s — Shares of the owner and operator of entertainment and dining venues climbed nearly 2% on the heels of its fourth-quarter adjusted earnings, which came in at 69 cents per share. That is above the 67 cents per share that analysts polled by FactSet were expecting. Revenue, however, came in weaker than anticipated, with the company posting $534.5 million for the quarter versus the consensus estimate of $544.7 million. Broadcom — The semiconductor stock moved more than 2% higher following the company’s authorization of a new $10 billion share repurchase program , effective through Dec. 31.
An exterior view of a CVS pharmacy in Danville, Pennsylvania.
Paul Weaver | Lightrocket | Getty Images
Check out the companies making headlines in after-hours trading:
Health-care stocks — Shares of Humana, CVS Health and UnitedHealth jumped after The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration will raise payment rates for Medicare insurers next year to 5.06%, higher than the 2.23% increase the Biden administration had proposed. Humana gained more than 13%, while CVS Health and UnitedHealth advanced more than 7% and about 6%, respectively.
Levi Strauss — The clothing stock rose more than 1% after the company reported its first-quarter results. Levi Strauss reported adjusted earnings of 38 cents per share, a 52% jump compared to the prior-year period. Revenue of $1.53 billion for the period also marked a 3% jump compared to last year.
Greenbrier — Shares of the railcar manufacturer fell 4% on the back of the company dialing back its revenue guidance for the full year. Greenbrier now sees revenue ranging from $3.15 billion to $3.35 billion, compared to previous guidance of $3.35 billion to $3.65 billion.
Dave & Buster’s — Shares of the owner and operator of entertainment and dining venues climbed nearly 2% on the heels of its fourth-quarter adjusted earnings, which came in at 69 cents per share. That is above the 67 cents per share that analysts polled by FactSet were expecting. Revenue, however, came in weaker than anticipated, with the company posting $534.5 million for the quarter versus the consensus estimate of $544.7 million.
Hedge funds loaded up on a record number of short bets against stocks as President Donald Trump’s steeper-than-expected tariffs wreaked havoc on Wall Street, according to Goldman Sachs’ prime brokerage data. Fast-money professional traders made their largest-ever, one-day net sales of global equities last week through Thursday, the day after Trump rolled out his sweeping levies, said Goldman, which has been collecting the data since 2010. “Liberation Day was a knock-down, drag-out affair — there was a harshness that surprised even the most hawkish people I know,” Tony Pasquariello, head of hedge fund client coverage at Goldman said in a note to clients. Hedge funds rapidly added protection as fears grew that Trump had set off a global trade war that will lead to a recession. Trump’s policy could effectively raise the U.S. tariffs rate from 2.5% to well past 20%, the highest level since 1910 — higher even than the devastating Smoot-Hawley tariffs of 1930 that many economists see as contributing to the Great Depression. The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered back-to-back 1,500-point losses last Thursday and Friday for the first time ever in its 129-year history. The S & P 500 plunged 10% in those two days. .DJI 5D mountain Dow Jones Industrial Average Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller made a rare comment over the weekend, reiterating his opposition to tariffs above 10%. Leon Cooperman , another billionaire investor, said the bottom is not in yet and stocks are set to continue their downward spiral. The chair and CEO of the Omega Family Office believes Trump’s tariffs are a “mistake” and will tip the U.S. economy into a recession. Nine of 11 investment sectors in the S & P 500 were net sold last week, led by financials, technology and consumer discretionary stocks, Goldman said. The selling in financials came at the fastest pace since January 2021 and the second fastest pace on record, the Wall Street investment bank said. “Lower prices drew out huge selling from many corners of our franchise; as one of the great traders of all time put it: ‘people are just getting into self-protection mode,'” Pasquariello said. Pasquariello noted the increased probability of “indiscriminate, short-cycle rips” higher in prices that can happen when there is a massive number of short positions. That was evidenced Monday , when stocks seesawed dramatically in reaction to headlines covering the Trump administration’s shifting trade policy.
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