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Wage growth now favors job stayers over job switchers

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A “Now Hiring” sign hangs in the window of a hair salon in the Greater Boston town of Medford, Massachusetts, August 12, 2025.

Brian Snyder | Reuters

Wage growth is doing something odd these days.

Typically, wages grow at a faster clip each year for workers who switch jobs, compared to those who stay in their current role.

That makes sense: Workers generally leave a job when they find something better for them, which often includes a higher salary, according to labor economists.

But in 2025, the roles have reversed as workers, faced with a souring job market, shift from job-hopping to “job hugging” — that is, clinging to their current roles.

Annual wage growth for so-called “job stayers” has eclipsed that of “job switchers” for the past six months, since February, according to data tracked by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

The margins aren’t huge: For example, in July, job stayers saw wages grow at a 4.1% annual pace, versus 4% for workers who switched jobs, according to the Atlanta Fed data.

However, that sustained reversal points to an underlying weakness in the labor market, economists said.

Since the late 1990s, a prolonged reversal in wage growth trends for job “switchers” versus “stayers” has only happened in periods around the Great Recession and the dot-com bust in the early 2000s, the Atlanta Fed data shows.

The last time a drawn-out reversal occurred was in and immediately following the Great Recession, during an 18-month period from February 2009 to July 2010, according to the data.

“We only tend to see it around other times when the labor market has been weak,” said Erica Groshen, a senior economics advisor at the Cornell University School of Industrial and Labor Relations and former commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics from 2013 to 2017.

The Atlanta Fed computes a three-month moving average of median hourly wages using data from the Current Population Survey, reported by the U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics.

That said, aggregate data on the labor market suggests it’s still in “pretty strong” shape, Groshen said.

‘Workers have lost some bargaining power’

But it has gradually cooled from a torrid pace in recent years.

Job openings had ballooned to historic highs in 2021 and 2022 as the U.S. economy awoke from its pandemic-era hibernation. Ample opportunity led workers to quit their jobs in record numbers for new employment, commanding big payouts from companies eager to attract talent.

Now, amid high interest rates and economic uncertainty, job openings have fallen and employers are hiring at their slowest pace in more than a decade.

Fed's Mary Daly: Job market is not precariously weak, but it is softening

“Maybe employers are not feeling that they need to offer their new workers higher wages in order to get them, and workers have lost some bargaining power in the labor market,” Groshen said.

The quits rate — the rate at which workers are voluntarily leaving their jobs — has also declined sharply. It has hovered around 2% since the start of the year, according to data from the U.S. Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Outside of the initial days of the Covid-19 pandemic, levels haven’t been that consistently low since early 2016.

This is the primary reason why wage growth for job stayers has eclipsed that for job switchers, said Allison Shrivastava, an economist at the job site Indeed.

A depressed quits rate suggests workers aren’t voluntarily leaving their jobs to find better ones because they don’t have confidence in doing so, Shrivastava said.

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‘Job hugging’ has replaced job-hopping

In this “frozen” labor market, in which there’s not a lot of voluntary job-hopping, workers who are forced to leave a job involuntarily are more likely to accept a new job that doesn’t pay as well, she said.

“They’re more in a situation of taking what they can get,” Shrivastava said.

Long-term unemployment is increasing

Such people are generally no longer eligible for unemployment benefits, economists said.

“They may be willing to take a job for a lower wage than they were at the beginning,” Groshen said.

Overall, the best way for workers to improve their wages in aggregate is still probably by switching jobs, Shrivastava.

“But the opportunity to switch your job right now is not really there,” she said.

There are ways for jobseekers to set themselves up for success in a tough hiring market, career experts said.

Among them: Find creative networking opportunities — conferences, seminars, lectures or book signings where other attendees are likely to be in your profession. Jobseekers can look internally for a new job placement, which may be easier than seeking out something external. They can focus on upskilling and reskilling to land a new job more easily when the market rebounds.

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Personal Finance

Maximizing Returns in High Rate Climate and market uncertainty

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Maximizing Returns in High-Rate Climate

In the macroeconomic environment of late July 2026, personal cash management requires an active, structured approach to wealth preservation. With central bank benchmark rates remaining elevated to ensure long-term disinflation, conservative yield-bearing vehicles—such as short-term U.S. Treasury bills, money market funds, and high-yield savings accounts (HYSAs)—continue to offer reliable nominal returns between 4% and 5%. For individual investors, maximizing net returns requires moving beyond passive checking accounts and executing a disciplined cash laddering strategy.

Leaving substantial liquid capital in traditional bank deposits creates an invisible drag on personal net worth due to ongoing inflation. By implementing a tiered liquidity framework, individuals can split emergency cash reserves and short-term capital allocations across rolling maturities. Allocating cash into 4-week, 8-week, and 13-week Treasury bills creates a continuous cycle of maturing liquidity, allowing investors to continuously reinvest capital at prevailing market yields while maintaining immediate access to emergency funds.

Tax efficiency represents a critical dimension of high-yield cash optimization. For high-earning individuals residing in states with substantial local income taxes, direct holdings in short-term U.S. Treasury instruments often deliver superior net post-tax yields compared to standard commercial bank HYSAs. Because interest earned on federal Treasury bills is strictly exempt from state and local taxation, investors can retain a larger portion of their compounding interest gains without taking on additional credit or market risk.

Ultimately, personal wealth accumulation in mid-2026 relies on intentional capital deployment. Cash should be managed as a productive asset class that generates consistent, risk-free returns. Regularly auditing account yield terms, automating recurring transfers, and leveraging tax-advantaged fixed-income instruments ensures that personal liquidity remains fully optimized against macroeconomic fluctuations.

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Personal Finance

Algorithmic Wealth Management: Balancing Automated Financial Planning with Human Oversight

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Balancing Automated Financial Planning with Human Oversight

The personal finance industry in July 2026 is experiencing a technological evolution, driven by the wide deployment of next-generation algorithmic wealth management tools. Modern digital financial platforms have expanded far beyond basic automated index investing; today’s robo-advisors utilize real-time tax-loss harvesting, dynamic portfolio rebalancing, and hyper-personalized spending analysis to optimize retail investor outcomes. However, as these digital solutions become ubiquitous, investors face the crucial challenge of balancing automated execution with human strategic judgment.

The core advantage of automated financial planning platforms lies in their ability to remove emotional bias from investment execution. During periods of market volatility or localized sector realignments, automated algorithms systematically rebalance portfolios back to target asset allocations without falling victim to panic selling or speculative enthusiasm. Furthermore, integrated cash-flow monitoring algorithms analyze individual spending patterns in real time, automatically sweeping surplus income into designated retirement or debt-liquidation accounts to accelerate net worth accumulation.

Despite these operational advantages, algorithmic tools have inherent structural limitations when addressing complex, highly personalized financial life events. Decisions involving multi-generational estate planning, highly complex tax strategies, small business exits, or nuanced real estate transactions require contextual human judgment that software models cannot replicate. Relying solely on automated models without periodic human professional review can result in misaligned risk profiles or overlooked tax liabilities during major life transitions.

The optimal approach for personal financial planning in late 2026 is a hybrid advisory model. Individuals should utilize automated platforms for routine asset allocation, continuous tax optimization, and low-cost passive index tracking, while engaging qualified human financial advisors for periodic strategic planning, estate structuring, and qualitative risk evaluations. This dual approach ensures maximum cost efficiency and disciplined execution while retaining essential strategic guidance.

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Personal Finance

High-Yield Optimization: Structuring Personal Cash Reserves in a Sustained Rate Environment

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Structuring Personal Cash Reserves in a Sustained Rate Environment

In the financial environment of mid-2026, personal cash management has re-emerged as a vital component of holistic wealth building. With central bank policy rates holding firm to maintain long-term price stability, yield-bearing instruments such as money market funds, high-yield savings accounts (HYSAs), and short-term Treasury bills continue to offer compounding returns around 4% to 5%. For individual investors, effectively structuring cash reserves requires shifting away from passive bank deposits toward active yield optimization.

A frequent pitfall in personal asset management is leaving substantial liquid capital in traditional checking or low-yield savings accounts, where real returns are continuously eroded by baseline inflation. By implementing a disciplined ‘cash ladder’ strategy—allocating liquid funds across tiered maturities using ultra-short Treasury instruments and FDIC-insured high-yield accounts—individuals can secure maximal yields while retaining immediate liquidity for emergency expenses or tactical investment opportunities.

Simultaneously, investors must evaluate the tax efficiency of their cash holdings based on their tax bracket and geographic location. For high earners situated in states with high local income taxes, direct holdings in short-term U.S. Treasury bills often yield a higher net post-tax return than standard high-yield savings accounts, as Treasury interest is strictly exempt from state and local taxation. Understanding these nuanced tax distinctions allows individuals to capture significant incremental gains without taking on additional market risk.

Ultimately, personal financial health in late 2026 hinges on intentional liquidity management. Cash reserves should not be viewed merely as static emergency funds, but as a dynamic asset class that contributes positively to net worth growth. Regularly auditing yield terms, automating cash transfers, and optimizing for post-tax efficiency ensures that personal capital remains fully productive across all economic conditions.

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