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Wage growth now favors job stayers over job switchers

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12 months ago

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A “Now Hiring” sign hangs in the window of a hair salon in the Greater Boston town of Medford, Massachusetts, August 12, 2025.

Brian Snyder | Reuters

Wage growth is doing something odd these days.

Typically, wages grow at a faster clip each year for workers who switch jobs, compared to those who stay in their current role.

That makes sense: Workers generally leave a job when they find something better for them, which often includes a higher salary, according to labor economists.

But in 2025, the roles have reversed as workers, faced with a souring job market, shift from job-hopping to “job hugging” — that is, clinging to their current roles.

Annual wage growth for so-called “job stayers” has eclipsed that of “job switchers” for the past six months, since February, according to data tracked by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

The margins aren’t huge: For example, in July, job stayers saw wages grow at a 4.1% annual pace, versus 4% for workers who switched jobs, according to the Atlanta Fed data.

However, that sustained reversal points to an underlying weakness in the labor market, economists said.

Since the late 1990s, a prolonged reversal in wage growth trends for job “switchers” versus “stayers” has only happened in periods around the Great Recession and the dot-com bust in the early 2000s, the Atlanta Fed data shows.

The last time a drawn-out reversal occurred was in and immediately following the Great Recession, during an 18-month period from February 2009 to July 2010, according to the data.

“We only tend to see it around other times when the labor market has been weak,” said Erica Groshen, a senior economics advisor at the Cornell University School of Industrial and Labor Relations and former commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics from 2013 to 2017.

The Atlanta Fed computes a three-month moving average of median hourly wages using data from the Current Population Survey, reported by the U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics.

That said, aggregate data on the labor market suggests it’s still in “pretty strong” shape, Groshen said.

‘Workers have lost some bargaining power’

But it has gradually cooled from a torrid pace in recent years.

Job openings had ballooned to historic highs in 2021 and 2022 as the U.S. economy awoke from its pandemic-era hibernation. Ample opportunity led workers to quit their jobs in record numbers for new employment, commanding big payouts from companies eager to attract talent.

Now, amid high interest rates and economic uncertainty, job openings have fallen and employers are hiring at their slowest pace in more than a decade.

Fed's Mary Daly: Job market is not precariously weak, but it is softening

“Maybe employers are not feeling that they need to offer their new workers higher wages in order to get them, and workers have lost some bargaining power in the labor market,” Groshen said.

The quits rate — the rate at which workers are voluntarily leaving their jobs — has also declined sharply. It has hovered around 2% since the start of the year, according to data from the U.S. Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Outside of the initial days of the Covid-19 pandemic, levels haven’t been that consistently low since early 2016.

This is the primary reason why wage growth for job stayers has eclipsed that for job switchers, said Allison Shrivastava, an economist at the job site Indeed.

A depressed quits rate suggests workers aren’t voluntarily leaving their jobs to find better ones because they don’t have confidence in doing so, Shrivastava said.

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‘Job hugging’ has replaced job-hopping

In this “frozen” labor market, in which there’s not a lot of voluntary job-hopping, workers who are forced to leave a job involuntarily are more likely to accept a new job that doesn’t pay as well, she said.

“They’re more in a situation of taking what they can get,” Shrivastava said.

Long-term unemployment is increasing

This is especially true for workers who are considered long-term unemployed, economists said. Long-term unemployment is a period of joblessness lasting at least six months.

About 25% of all jobless individuals in July were long-term unemployed, the highest share since February 2022, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

Such people are generally no longer eligible for unemployment benefits, economists said.

“They may be willing to take a job for a lower wage than they were at the beginning,” Groshen said.

Overall, the best way for workers to improve their wages in aggregate is still probably by switching jobs, Shrivastava.

“But the opportunity to switch your job right now is not really there,” she said.

There are ways for jobseekers to set themselves up for success in a tough hiring market, career experts said.

Among them: Find creative networking opportunities — conferences, seminars, lectures or book signings where other attendees are likely to be in your profession. Jobseekers can look internally for a new job placement, which may be easier than seeking out something external. They can focus on upskilling and reskilling to land a new job more easily when the market rebounds.

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Personal Finance

$20,000 Caution Bond Requirement for US Visa Applications imposed on 50 Countries

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6 days ago

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August 8, 2026

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The United States Department of State has officially implemented a revised visa policy introducing a mandatory posting requirement for caution payments of up to $20,000 on select foreign travel applications. Under the updated regulatory framework, consular officials are authorized to require temporary nonimmigrant visa applicants from targeted foreign countries to post a refundable financial bond of $20,000 as a condition for visa issuance. The policy mechanism is designed to address diplomatic concerns regarding high overstay rates among temporary visitor, business, and educational visa categories.

The caution bond pilot program applies selectively to foreign nationals from designated countries whose diplomatic entities record historical visa overstay rates exceeding established federal thresholds. Under administrative guidelines published by the State Department, the full financial deposit is posted directly to a dedicated federal escrow account prior to final visa issuance. The entire caution payment is automatically refunded to the applicant upon verified proof of timely departure from the United States in strict compliance with the authorized duration of stay. Conversely, failure to depart within the legal timeframe results in full forfeiture of the posted financial bond to the United States government.

Diplomatic representatives and travel policy experts have expressed varying perspectives regarding the operational implementation of the caution bond system. Administration officials emphasize that the measure serves as an effective, market-based incentive to enforce international travel compliance and preserve domestic immigration security standards. However, international trade organizations and foreign diplomatic missions have raised concerns regarding the financial burden imposed on legitimate business travelers, foreign students, and commercial partners from developing nations.

The United States finalized the rule to make the temporary visa bond program permanent, taking effect on August 3, 2026. The updated permanent regulation replaces the prior 12-month pilot, eliminates the lowest $5,000 tier, and raises the maximum required bond amount to $20,000 for specific B-1/B-2 business and tourist visa applicants.

Here is the list of the 50 countries on the list as o August 3, 2026

African Nations (31 Countries)

  • Algeria
  • Angola
  • Benin
  • Botswana
  • Burundi
  • Cabo Verde (Cape Verde)
  • Central African Republic
  • Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast)
  • Djibouti
  • Ethiopia
  • Gabon
  • The Gambia
  • Ghana
  • Guinea
  • Guinea-Bissau
  • Lesotho
  • Malawi
  • Mauritania
  • Mauritius
  • Mozambique
  • Namibia
  • Nigeria
  • São Tomé and Príncipe
  • Senegal
  • Seychelles
  • Tanzania
  • Togo
  • Tunisia
  • Uganda
  • Zambia
  • Zimbabwe

Asian & Eastern European Nations (11 Countries)

  • Bangladesh
  • Bhutan
  • Cambodia
  • Georgia
  • Kyrgyzstan
  • Mongolia
  • Nepal
  • Papua New Guinea
  • Tajikistan
  • Turkmenistan
  • Uzbekistan

Caribbean & Latin American Nations (5 Countries)

  • Antigua and Barbuda
  • Cuba
  • Dominica
  • Grenada
  • Venezuela

Oceanian Nations (3 Countries)

  • Fiji
  • Tonga
  • Vanuatu

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Personal Finance

Next-Generation Retirement Planning: Managing Longevity Risk and Variable Income Streams

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1 week ago

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August 7, 2026

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Retirement planning strategies are evolving in 2026 to address increased life expectancies, shifting dynamic market conditions, and the transition away from traditional defined-benefit pensions. Individual investors and financial advisors are abandoning rigid retirement models in favor of flexible, multi-asset strategies designed to mitigate longevity risk and preserve purchasing power over multi-decade retirement horizons.

Mitigating Longevity Risk with Dynamic Asset Allocation
As average life expectancies extend past eighty-five years, one of the primary financial risks facing retirees is outliving their accumulated wealth. Traditional fixed income allocations—such as the standard 60/40 equity-to-bond portfolio—are being reevaluated to ensure portfolios generate sufficient capital growth alongside reliable income.

Financial planners recommend maintaining a meaningful equity allocation throughout retirement to offset long-term inflation erosion. High-dividend equity funds, global real estate investment trusts (REITs), and inflation-indexed Treasuries are combined to create diversified portfolios that deliver both growth and income stability.

The Transition to Dynamic Withdrawal Strategies
The classic “4% safe withdrawal rule” is increasingly replaced by dynamic withdrawal strategies that adapt annually based on market performance. Under a dynamic withdrawal framework, retirees adjust their annual distribution rates within pre-set caps and floors:
– Market Upside: During strong market returns, retirees can increase discretionary spending or fund family legacy gifts.
– Market Downturns: During market pullbacks, spending distributions are temporarily reduced to prevent sequence-of-returns risk and preserve core investment principal.

Guaranteed Lifetime Income Options and Deferred Annuities
To establish a guaranteed baseline for essential living expenses, individuals are incorporating modern fixed-indexed and deferred longevity annuities into their broader retirement architectures. Modern annuity structures offer competitive return caps, transparent fee schedules, and inflation-adjustment options.

By funding essential expenses—such as housing, healthcare, and insurance—with guaranteed income streams from Social Security, pensions, and annuities, retirees can manage discretionary investment portfolios with greater flexibility and lower emotional stress during market volatility.

Actionable Steps for Future Retirees
1. Calculate Baseline Retirement Expenses: Determine fixed living costs and map guaranteed income sources to cover essential expenditures.
2. Adopt Flexible Withdrawal Rules: Implement dynamic spending rules to protect investment principal against market downturns.
3. Incorporate Inflation-Protected Assets: Maintain exposure to dividend-growing equities and inflation-indexed bonds to safeguard long-term purchasing power.

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Personal Finance

Building Generational Wealth: Family Governance, Estate Tax Optimization, and Asset Protection

Published

2 weeks ago

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August 1, 2026

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As the largest intergenerational transfer of wealth in history accelerates, high-net-worth families, entrepreneurs, and individual investors are placing heightened emphasis on comprehensive estate planning, family governance, and asset protection. Preserving capital across generations requires a balanced approach combining tax-efficient legal structures with open family communication and financial literacy education.

Optimizing Estate Tax Exemptions and Trust Structures
With potential modifications to federal estate tax exemption thresholds on the horizon, proactive estate planning is essential for high-net-worth households. Estate planning attorneys and wealth advisors are establishing multi-generational trust structures to transfer wealth efficiently while minimizing estate and gift tax exposure.

Popular structural strategies include:
– Irrevocable Life Insurance Trusts (ILITs): Utilizing life insurance proceeds to provide liquidity for estate tax obligations without expanding the taxable estate.
– Grantor Retained Annuity Trusts (GRATs): Transferring rapidly appreciating assets to beneficiaries with minimal gift tax consequences.
– Dynasty Trusts: Preserving wealth across multiple generations while providing long-term asset protection from creditor claims and legal liabilities.

Establishing Family Governance and Financial Education
Legal and financial structures alone cannot guarantee long-term wealth preservation without effective family governance. Financial advisors report that a significant percentage of multi-generational wealth dissipation stems from lack of communication and inadequate financial preparation among heir generations.

Families are establishing formal family governance frameworks, including periodic family meetings, written mission statements, and structured philanthropic foundations. Involving younger family members in charitable grant-making and investment discussions fosters financial stewardship and prepares heirs to manage family assets responsibly.

Digital Asset Custody and Legacy Planning
In today’s modern economy, estate planning must extend beyond physical real estate and traditional brokerage accounts to encompass digital assets. Comprehensive estate plans now include detailed inventories and legal access protocols for corporate domain names, intellectual property, digital media rights, and cryptocurrency holdings.

Fiduciaries and estate executors should be provided with secure, encrypted access mechanisms and clear legal authority to manage and transfer digital holdings in accordance with the owner’s estate directions.

Practical Steps for Legacy Planning
1. Review and Update Estate Documents: Ensure wills, revocable trusts, and power-of-attorney designations accurately reflect current family structures.
2. Establish Structured Trusts: Utilize irrevocable trusts to protect assets from creditors and minimize future estate tax liabilities.
3. Create a Digital Estate Inventory: Document access protocols and legal permissions for all online accounts, intellectual property, and digital assets.

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