Berkshire hiked its bet after billionaire John Malone’s Liberty Media completed its deal in early September to combine its tracking stocks with the rest of the audio entertainment company. It was part of Malone’s reshuffling of his sprawling media empire that also included a split-off of the Atlanta Braves baseball team into a separate, publicly traded company, which Berkshire also owns.
Buffett’s firm first bought Liberty Media’s trackers in 2016 and started piling into Siri’s tracking stocks in the beginning of 2024 after the deal announcement in a likely merger arbitrage play.
The 94-year-old has never mentioned the bet publicly, and it’s unclear if he’s behind it or if it’s the work of the billionaire’s investing lieutenants, either Ted Weschler or Todd Combs.
Not well loved
SiriusXM, which has been grappling with subscriber losses and unfavorable demographic shifts, is not a popular stock on Wall Street. Out of the 14 analysts covering the stock, only five gave it a buy rating, according to FactSet.
JPMorgan analyst Sebastiano Petti reopened coverage of SiriusXM with an underweight rating last week, citing concerns about the radio giant’s long-term growth and its ability to successfully target a broader demographic.
Meanwhile, the Liberty transaction, which reduced share count by 12%, could cause the company to pause share buybacks until 2027, which will likely weigh on shares, the analyst said.
SiriusXM
The stock popped 8% on Monday on Berkshire’s disclosure. However, shares are still down more than 50% this year.
The last time Berkshire invested significantly in a major media company was in 2022, when the conglomerate bought a nonvoting stake in Paramount Global‘s class B shares. The investment soured quickly. Buffett revealed in May this year that he had exited the entire stock at a big loss.
Buffett said the unfruitful Paramount bet made him think more deeply about what people prioritize in their leisure time. He previously said the streaming industry has too many players seeking viewer dollars, causing a stiff price war.
After last month’s excitement over stimulus plans, Chinese stocks now face mounting challenges as earnings have yet to pick up and heightened U.S. trade tensions loom. “Stock picking remains important with [the] headwind of tariffs, a weaker currency and persistent deflation,” Morgan Stanley chief China equity strategist Laura Wang and a team said in a report Thursday. For investment options, she referred to the firm’s survey of China stocks the investment bank’s analysts already cover. The firm screened for stocks that could outperform depending on which of three scenarios unfolded. Only the bear case accounted for significant U.S. tariffs and restrictions. The base and bull cases assumed the status quo in U.S.-China relations. The bear case also expects 1 trillion yuan, or $140 billion, in fiscal stimulus a year and MSCI China earnings per share growth of 3% this year and 5% next year. Morgan Stanley’s basket of bear case stocks only includes overweight-rated names with a dividend yield above 4% this year. They also have free cash flow yield above 4% from 2023 to 2025 and market capitalization above $2 billion, among other factors. The companies must not be on Morgan Stanley’s lists of stocks at a disadvantage from Republican policy and supply chain diversification. The only consumer name that made the list was Tingyi , a Hong Kong-listed company that owns instant noodles brand Master Kong. The company is also PepsiCo ‘s exclusive manufacturer and seller in China. Tingyi’s net profit in beverages rose nearly 26% in the first half of 2024 compared to a year ago, while that of instant noodles rose 5.4%. Morgan Stanley expects Tingyi’s earnings per share to grow 12% this year and 11% in 2025. Other Chinese companies that made Morgan Stanley’s bear case basket included two state-owned energy stocks: drilling company China Oilfield Services and Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation , which specializes in shipping oil and natural gas. Both stocks are listed in Hong Kong, as is the only industrials name on the bear case list, Sinotruk . The truck manufacturer is also state owned. Morgan Stanley expects China Oilfield Services can grow earnings per share by 41% this year and 33% next year, while Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation can see its earnings rise 33% this year, before slowing to 16% growth next year. Sinotruk earnings can grow 18% this year and 17% next year, according to Morgan Stanley estimates. MSCI China constituents are on track for their 13th straight quarter of earnings misses, despite recent improvements in economic data, Morgan Stanley’s Wang said. “We expect further earnings downward revisions amid lingering deflationary pressure and geopolitical uncertainties until more policy clarity emerges.” Asia equity fund managers have modestly increased their exposure to China since September’s stimulus announcements, Morningstar strategist Claire Liang said in a phone interview Friday. “But many managers have said whether this rally can continue will depend on whether the policies can see real results,” Liang said in Mandarin, which was translated by CNBC. Beyond stabilizing the economy, she said the managers are looking for whether corporate earnings can recover. China’s October data release on Friday underscored a slow economic recovery despite the latest barrage of stimulus announcements. Industrial production missed forecasts. Fixed asset investment grew more slowly than forecast as the drop in real estate investment steepened, albeit with new home sales narrowing their decline. Only retail sales beat expectations with 4.8% growth . For China’s export-heavy economy, the risk of U.S. tariffs has only risen over the past two weeks as the Republican Party has taken control of the U.S. Congress and President-elect Donald Trump has filled his cabinet with China hawks. Morgan Stanley’s U.S. policy team expects Trump to impose tariffs soon after he takes office, and potentially hit Europe and Mexico along with China imports. While China is better positioned than six years ago to stave off the effects of targeted tariffs, the analysts said global duties on U.S. imports would hit China as much as targeted tariffs did in 2018.
Elon Musk at the tenth Breakthrough Prize ceremony held at the Academy Museum of Motion Pictures on April 13, 2024 in Los Angeles, California.
The Hollywood Reporter | The Hollywood Reporter | Getty Images
On Saturday, Elon Musk shared who he is endorsing for Treasury secretary on X, a cabinet position President-elect Donald Trump has yet to announce his preference to fill.
Musk wrote that Howard Lutnick, Trump-Vance transition co-chair and CEO and chairman of Cantor Fitzgerald, BGC Group and Newmark Group chairman, will “actually enact change.”
Lutnick and Key Square Group founder and CEO Scott Bessent are reportedly top picks to run the Treasury Department.
Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, also included his thoughts on Bessent in his post on X.
“My view fwiw is that Bessent is a business-as-usual choice,” he wrote.
“Business-as-usual is driving America bankrupt so we need change one way or another,” he added.
Musk also stated it would be “interesting to hear more people weigh in on this for @realDonaldTrump to consider feedback.”
Howard Lutnick, chairman and chief executive officer of Cantor Fitzgerald LP, left, and Elon Musk, chief executive officer of Tesla Inc., during a campaign event with former US President Donald Trump, not pictured, at Madison Square Garden in New York, US, on Sunday, Oct. 27, 2024.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
In a statement to Politico, Trump transition spokesperson Karoline Leavitt made it clear that the president-elect has not made any decisions regarding the position of Treasury secretary.
“President-elect Trump is making decisions on who will serve in his second administration,” Leavitt said in a statement. “Those decisions will be announced when they are made.”
Both Lutnick and Bessent have close ties to Trump. Lutnick and Trump have known each other for decades, and the CEO has even hosted a fundraiser for the president-elect.
The Wall Street Journal also reported that Lutnick has already been helping Trump review candidates for cabinet positions in his administration.
On the other hand, Bessent was a key economic advisor to the president-elect during his 2024 campaign. Bessent also received an endorsement from Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, according to Semafor.
“He’s from South Carolina, I know him well, he’s highly qualified,” Graham said.
Money manager John Davi is positioning for challenges tied to President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff agenda.
Davi said he worries the new administration’s policies could be “very inflationary,” so he thinks it is important to choose investments carefully.
“Small-cap industrials make more sense than large-cap industrials,” the Astoria Portfolio Advisors CEO told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week.
Davi, who is also the firm’s chief investment officer, expects the red sweep will help push a pro-growth, pro-domestic policy agenda forward that will benefit small caps.
It appears Wall Street agrees so far. Since the presidential election, the Russell 2000 index, which tracks small-cap stocks, is up around 4% as of Friday’s close.
Davi, whose firm has $1.9 billion in assets under management, also likes staying domestic despite the tariff risks.
“We’re overweight the U.S. I think that’s the right playbook in the next few years until the midterms,” added Davi. “We have two years of where he [Trump] can control a lot of the narrative.”
But Davi plans to stay away from fixed income due to challenges tied to the growing budget deficit.
“Be careful if you own bonds for sure,” said Davi.