Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway CEO and chairman.
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In 2007, Warren Buffett made a $1 million bet that he could outperform hedge fund managers over the course of a decade by investing in an S&P 500 index fund.
Some individual investors are making similar bets on the S&P 500 with their money, whether it be through exchange-traded funds or mutual funds.
True to its name, the S&P 500 index includes 500 large U.S. companies. The index is market cap-weighted, with each listed company’s weighting based on the total value of all its outstanding shares. The index is rebalanced quarterly.
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The three biggest ETFs track the S&P 500 index, according to Morningstar.They are the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, which trades under the ticker SPY;iShares Core S&P 500 ETF, with ticker IVV; and Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, which trades as VOO. Together, those funds make up almost 17% of the U.S. ETF market, according to Morningstar.
In 2024, VOO has been the leader of those three funds in attracting new money, with $71 billion in net inflows over the first nine months, according to Morningstar, beating the record SPY set in 2023 by $20 billion.
Future index performance could be ‘muted’
The S&P 500 index has continued to make headlines for new all-time highs in 2024. Year to date, the index is up around 20% as of Oct. 8. Over the past 12 months, it has climbed 33%.
That performance has bested some experts’ predictions for the index heading into this year, owing in part to a stronger U.S. economy than had been anticipated.
“That elusive recession everybody was looking for never materialized,” said Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James.
Now, the St. Petersburg, Florida-based firm is predicting a soft landing for the U.S. economy. Yet the run-up in stocks may not be as strong.
“I think you’re going to see more muted performance — still upward, but more muted,” Adam said.
Historically, from the start of October through Election Day, the market tends to be down, on average, by about 1.5% or so, he said.
“The reason for that is the market doesn’t like uncertainty,” Adam said.
The good news is the market tends to recoup those losses and move higher, he said.
Goldman Sachs just raised its S&P 500 index forecast for 2024 to 6,000 up from 5,600 to reflect expected earnings growth. Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors managing partner and head of research, also recently told CNBC he’s calling for a target of 6,000 for the S&P 500 by year-end.
S&P 500 ‘hard to beat in the long run’
Investing in the S&P 500 index is a popular strategy.
“There are reasons why it works so well that will never change,” said Bryan Armour, director of passive strategies research at Morningstar.
Among the advantages: It’s low cost, it captures a large portion of the opportunities available to active managers and it’s “hard to beat in the long run,” he said.
“In general, I would say the S&P 500 is better, more well diversified than most investment strategies,” Armour said.
That can allow you to take a set-it-and-forget-it approach and avoid trying to time the market, he said.
However, there are definite risks that come with exclusively investing in an S&P 500 index fund on the equity side of a portfolio.
“The S&P 500 has been the absolute best thing [investors] could have been doing the past seven or eight years,” said Sean Williams, a certified financial planner and principal at Cadence Wealth Partners in Concord, North Carolina.
“There’s a lot of people who have that mentality of, ‘Why would I do anything differently?'” he said.
Generally, it is not a good idea to have everything in any one position, even if it is big U.S. companies that have done very well in the past decade, Williams said.
It always helps to have exposure to other areas, he said, such as international, small- and mid-cap companies, and real estate, for example.
Investing in an S&P 500 index strategy comes with concentration risk. For example, information technology comprises 31.7% of the index, with companies including Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia and Broadcom.
To mitigate that risk, investors may consider moving to a total market portfolio like the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF, which trades under the ticker symbol VTI, which can provide less concentration at the top of the portfolio, Armour said.
Additionally, to get broader exposure, investors may also consider buying a small value ETF, an area that Morningstar analysts currently think is “pretty significantly undervalued,” Armour said.
The agency on Friday confirmed the figure — which will bring its total staff down to 50,000 from 57,000.
Previous reports that the Social Security Administration planned for a 50% reduction to its headcount are “false,” the agency said.
Nevertheless, the aim of 7,000 job cuts has prompted concerns about the agency’s ability to continue to provide services, particularly benefit payments, to tens of millions of older Americans when its staff is already at a 50-year low.
“It’s going to extend the amount of time that it takes for them to have their claim processed,” said Greg Senden, a paralegal analyst who has worked at the Social Security Administration for 27 years.
“It’s going to extend the amount of time that they have to wait to get benefits,” said Senden, who also helps the American Federation of Government Employees oversee Social Security employees in six central states.
Officials at the White House and the Social Security Administration were not available for comment at press time.
The Social Security Administration on Friday said it anticipates “much of” the staff reductions needed to reach its target will come from resignations, retirement and offers for Voluntary Separation Incentive Payments, or VSIP.
More reductions could come from “reduction-in-force actions that could include abolishment of organizations and positions” or reassignments to other positions, the agency said. Federal agencies must submit their reduction-in-force plans by March 13 to the Office of Personnel Management for approval.
Cuts may affect benefit payments, experts say
Former Social Security Administration Commissioner Martin O’Malley last week told CNBC.com that the continuity of benefit payments could be at risk for the first time in the program’s history.
“Ultimately, you’re going to see the system collapse and an interruption of benefits,” O’Malley said. “I believe you will see that within the next 30 to 90 days.”
Other experts say the changes could affect benefits, though it remains to be seen exactly how.
“It’s unclear to me whether the staff cuts are more likely to result in an interruption of benefits, or an increase in improper payments,” said Charles Blahous, senior research strategist at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University and a former public trustee for Social Security and Medicare.
Improper payments happen when the agency either overpays or underpays benefits due to inaccurate information.
With fewer staff, the Social Security Administration will have to choose between making sure all claims are processed, which may lead to more improper payments, or avoiding those errors, which could lead to processing delays, Blahous said.
Disability benefits, which require more agency staff attention both to process initial claims and to continue to verify beneficiaries are eligible, may be more susceptible to errors compared to retirement benefits, he added.
Cuts may have minimal impact on trust funds
Under the Trump administration, Social Security also plans to consolidate its geographic footprint to four regions down from 10 regional offices, the agency said on Friday.
Ultimately, it remains to be seen how much savings the overall reforms will generate.
The Social Security Administration’s funding for administrative costs comes out of its trust funds, which are also used to pay benefits. Based on current projections, the trust funds will be depleted in the next decade and Social Security will not be able to pay full benefits at that time, unless Congress acts sooner.
The efforts to cut costs at the Social Security Administration would likely only help the trust fund solvency “in some miniscule way,” said Andrew Biggs, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former principal deputy commissioner of the Social Security Administration.
What President Donald Trump is likely looking to do broadly is reset the baseline on government spending and employment, he said.
“I’m not disagreeing with the idea that the agency could be more efficient,” Biggs said. “I just wonder whether you can come up with that by cutting the positions first and figuring out how to have the efficiencies later.”
“There’s a lot of panicking by PSLF borrowers due to the uncertainty,” said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.
PSLF, which President George W. Bush signed into law in 2007, allows certain not-for-profit and government employees to have their federal student loans canceled after 10 years of payments.
Here’s what borrowers in the program need to know about recent changes affecting the program.
IDR repayment plan applications down
Some borrowers’ PSLF progress has stalled
While the legal challenges against SAVE were playing out, the Biden administration paused the payments for enrollees through a forbearance, as well as the accrual of any interest.
Unlike the payment pause during the pandemic, borrowers in this forbearance aren’t getting credit toward their required 120 payments for loan forgiveness under PSLF. It’s unclear when the forbearance will end.
But while the applications for other IDR plans remain unavailable, borrowers in SAVE are stuck on their timeline toward loan forgiveness, Kantrowitz said. If you were on an IDR plan other than SAVE, you will continue to get credit during this period if you’re making payments and working in eligible employment.
The Education Department is now tweaking the applications to make sure all their repayment plans comply with the new court order, an agency spokesperson told CNBC last week.
It will likely be months before the Department has reworked all the applications and made them available again, Kantrowitz said.
Those who switch to the Standard plan will continue to get PSLF credit, but the payments are often too high for those working in the public sector or for a nonprofit to afford, experts said.
‘Buy back’ opportunity can help
While it’s frustrating not to be inching toward loan forgiveness for the time being, an option down the road may help, said Betsy Mayotte, president of The Institute of Student Loan Advisors, a nonprofit.
The Education Department’s Buyback opportunity lets people pay for certain months that didn’t count, if doing so brings them up to 120 qualifying payments.
For example, time spent in forbearances or deferments that suspended your progress can essentially be cashed in for qualifying payments.
The extra payment must total at least as much as what you have paid monthly under an IDR plan, according to Studentaid.gov.
Borrowers who’ve now been pursuing PSLF for 10 years or more should put in their buyback request sooner than later, Kantrowitz said.
“The benefit is likely to be eliminated by the Trump administration,” he said.
Keep records
Borrowers have already long complained of inaccurate payment counts under the PSLF program. While the student loan repayment options are tweaked, people could see more errors, Kantrowitz said.
“A borrower’s payment history and other student loan details are more likely to get corrupted during a transition,” he said.
As a result, he said, those pursuing PSLF should print out a copy of their payment history on StudentAid.gov.
“It would also be a good idea to create a spreadsheet showing all of the qualifying payments so they have their own count,” Kantrowitz said.
With the PSLF help tool, borrowers can search for a list of qualifying employers and access the employer certification form. Try to fill out this form at least once a year, Kantrowitz added.
The US Treasury building in Washington, DC, US, on Monday, Jan. 27, 2025.
Stefani Reynolds | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The U.S. Department of the Treasury on Sunday announced it won’t enforce the penalties or fines associated with the Biden-era “beneficial ownership information,” or BOI, reporting requirements for millions of domestic businesses.
Enacted via the Corporate Transparency Act in 2021 to fight illicit finance and shell company formation, BOI reporting requires small businesses to identify who directly or indirectly owns or controls the company to the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, known as FinCEN.
After previous court delays, the Treasury in late February set a March 21 deadline to comply or risk civil penalties of up to $591 a day, adjusted for inflation, or criminal fines of up to $10,000 and up to two years in prison. The reporting requirements could apply to roughly 32.6 million businesses, according to federal estimates.
The rule was enacted to “make it harder for bad actors to hide or benefit from their ill-gotten gains through shell companies or other opaque ownership structures,” according to FinCEN.
In addition to not enforcing BOI penalties and fines, the Treasury said it would issue a proposed regulation to apply the rule to foreign reporting companies only.
President Donald Trump praised the news in a Truth Social post on Sunday night, describing the reporting rule as “outrageous and invasive” and “an absolute disaster” for small businesses.
Other experts say the Treasury’s decision could have ramifications for national security.
“This decision threatens to make the United States a magnet for foreign criminals, from drug cartels to fraudsters to terrorist organizations,” Scott Greytak, director of advocacy for anticorruption organization Transparency International U.S., said in a statement.