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Weak manufacturing measures raise specter of U.S. economic slowdown

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Workers assemble second-generation R1 vehicles at electric auto maker Rivian’s manufacturing facility in Normal, Illinois, U.S. June 21, 2024. 

Joel Angel Juarez | Reuters

U.S. factories remained in slowdown mode in August, fueling fears about where the economy is headed, according to separate manufacturing gauges.

The Institute for Supply Management monthly survey of purchasing managers showed that just 47.2% reported expansion during the month, below the 50% breakeven point for activity.

Though that was slightly above the 46.8% recorded for July, it was below the Dow Jones consensus call for 47.9%.

“While still in contraction territory, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted slower compared to last month. Demand continues to be weak, output declined, and inputs stayed accommodative,” said Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

“Demand remains subdued, as companies show an unwillingness to invest in capital and inventory due to current federal monetary policy and election uncertainty,” he added.

While the index level suggests contraction in the manufacturing sector, Fiore pointed out that any reading above 42.5% generally points to expansion across the broader economy.

It was a weaker-than-expected reading last month that sent markets further into a tailspin, ultimately costing the S&P 500 about 8.5% before recovering most of the losses. Stocks added to losses following the latest ISM release on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average off nearly 500 points.

Another weak economic reading raises the probability the Federal Reserve will be cutting interest rates by at least a quarter percentage point later this month. Following the ISM report, traders raised the odds of a more aggressive half-point reduction to 39%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch measure.

With the survey, the employment index edged higher to 46% while inventories jumped to 50.3%. Regarding inflation, the prices index nudged higher to 54%, possibly giving the Fed some pause when deciding on the extent of the fully priced in rate cut.

The ISM results were backed up by another PMI reading from S&P, which showed a decrease to 47.9 in August from 49.6 in July.

The S&P employment index showed a decrease for the first time this year, while the input cost measure climbed to a 16-month high, another sign that inflation remains present if well off its mid-2022 highs.

“A further downward lurch in the PMI points to the manufacturing sector acting as an increased drag on the economy midway through the third quarter. Forward-looking indicators suggest this drag could intensify in the coming months,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Economics

UK inflation September 2024

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The Canary Wharf business district is seen in the distance behind autumnal leaves on October 09, 2024 in London, United Kingdom.

Dan Kitwood | Getty Images News | Getty Images

LONDON — Inflation in the U.K. dropped sharply to 1.7% in September, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the headline rate to come in at a higher 1.9% for the month, in the first dip of the print below the Bank of England’s 2% target since April 2021.

Inflation has been hovering around that level for the last four months, and came in at 2.2% in August.

Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, came in at 3.2% for the month, down from 3.6% in August and below the 3.4% forecast of a Reuters poll.

Price rises in the services sector, the dominant portion of the U.K. economy, eased significantly to 4.9% last month from 5.6% in August, now hitting its lowest rate since May 2022.

Core and services inflation are key watch points for Bank of England policymakers as they mull whether to cut interest rates again at their November meeting.

As of Wednesday morning, market pricing put an 80% probability on a November rate cut ahead of the latest inflation print. Analysts on Tuesday said lower wage growth reported by the ONS this week had supported the case for a cut. The BOE reduced its key rate by 25 basis points in August before holding in September.

Within the broader European region, inflation in the euro zone dipped below the European Central Bank’s 2% target last month, hitting 1.8%, according to the latest data.

This is a breaking news story and will be updated shortly.

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Economics

Why Larry Hogan’s long-odds bid for a Senate seat matters

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FEW REPUBLICAN politicians differ more from Donald Trump than Larry Hogan, the GOP Senate candidate in Maryland. Consider the contrasts between a Trump rally and a Hogan event. Whereas Mr Trump prefers to take the stage and riff in front of packed arenas, Mr Hogan spent a recent Friday night chatting with locals at a waterfront wedding venue in Baltimore County. Mr Hogan’s stump speech, at around ten minutes, felt as long as a single off-script Trump tangent. Mr Trump delights in defying his advisers; Mr Hogan fastidiously sticks to talking points about bipartisanship, good governance and overcoming tough odds. Put another way, Mr Hogan’s campaign is something Mr Trump is rarely accused of being: boring. But it is intriguing.

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Economics

Polarisation by education is remaking American politics

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DEPENDING ON where exactly you find yourself, western Pennsylvania can feel Appalachian, Midwestern, booming or downtrodden. No matter where, however, this part of the state feels like the centre of the American political universe. Since she became the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Kamala Harris has visited Western Pennsylvania six times—more often than Philadelphia, on the other side of the state. She will mark her seventh on a trip on October 14th, to the small city of Erie, where Donald Trump also held a rally recently. Democratic grandees flit through Pittsburgh regularly. It is where Ms Harris chose to unveil the details of her economic agenda, and it is where Barack Obama visited on October 10th to deliver encouragement and mild chastisement. “Do not just sit back and hope for the best,” he admonished. “Get off your couch and vote.”

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