Social Security may not be able to pay full Social Security retirement benefits as soon as 2033, based on current projections from the program’s trustees.
If Congress doesn’t move to fix the situation by that date, the general expectation is that millions of retirees could see a 21% across-the-board benefit cut.
The effects of that lost income could be enough to prompt a retirement crisis, since it would double the elderly poverty rate and reduce median senior household income by nearly 14%, according to new research titled, “A Simple Plan to Address Social Security Insolvency.”
Yet those broad benefit cuts would not necessarily have to happen, as the worst effects of insolvency could be prevented by executive action, according to the report by Andrew Biggs, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and Kristin Shapiro, counsel at BakerHostetler.
Instead of across-the-board benefit cuts, benefits could be reallocated to avoid increases in poverty for low earners while having just a small effect on the middle class, according to Biggs.
“It means big cuts on very rich people, but it avoids what you might think of as a retirement crisis, where everything is thrown into upheaval,” Biggs said.
Why Social Security’s trust funds face depletion dates
Social Security draws from multiple sources to pay benefits — ongoing revenue from payroll taxes and income taxes, as well as trust funds that are used to supplement the monthly checks beneficiaries receive.
Yet as more people collect Social Security retirement benefits, the trust fund used to pay those benefits is running low. The depletion date — currently 2033 — represents the point at which the fund will be exhausted.
At that point, it is expected that 79% of those benefits will be payable.
Social Security has more than one trust fund, including one that pays retired workers, their families and survivors, and a second that pays disability benefits.
Together, those trust funds have a projected depletion date of 2035, when 83% of benefits would be payable. While merging the funds could provide additional financial runway, doing so it not allowed under current law, according to Biggs’ and Shapiro’s research.
How broad benefit cuts could be avoided
As the November election approaches, experts generally hope a new president and new Congress will address Social Security’s solvency.
“We far prefer for Congress to enact comprehensive Social Security reforms before 2033,” Biggs’ and Shapiro’s research states.
The sooner Congress acts, the better it will be for all beneficiaries involved, to give them more certainty, said Shai Akabas, executive director of the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Economic Policy Program. A recent survey from Nationwide Retirement Institute found 72% of adults worry Social Security will run out of funding in their lifetimes.
The roughly 21% across-the-board benefit cut is “untenable and unsustainable, both politically and financially from a household perspective,” Akabas said.
However, if lawmakers fail to come to an agreement by the depletion date, the president could move to protect beneficiaries from the worst effects of the ensuing cuts, according to Biggs and Shapiro.
Once the depletion date arrives — whether it remains 2033 or shifts to another year — the president at the time could move to cap monthly benefits at about $2,050, the research proposes.
That change would reduce payments to beneficiaries who receive more than that amount and make Social Security solvent without adding new debt or increasing taxes.
At the same time, about half of all retirees and survivors would still receive their full benefit payments. Notably, no retiree would be pushed into poverty, according to the research.
To be sure, if the fund depletion date were crossed, lawmakers would face an unprecedented situation.
What happens next would depend on the interpretation of Constitutional law. That could prompt litigation, the research notes, including from beneficiaries who may not receive the benefits they were promised.
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As some Americans struggle to save for retirement, key 401(k) plan changes could soon make preparing easier for certain workers, experts say.
Enacted by Congress in 2022, “Secure 2.0” ushered in sweeping changes to the U.S. retirement system, including several updates to 401(k) plans. Some of these provisions will go into effect in 2025.
Meanwhile, roughly 4 in 10 American workers say they are behind in retirement planning and savings, primarily due to debt, not enough income or getting a late start, according to a CNBC survey, which polled about 6,700 adults in early August.
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Dave Stinnett, Vanguard’s head of strategic retirement consulting, said 401(k) plans are “the primary way most Americans prepare for retirement” and those accountscan work “very, very well” when designed properly.
Here are some key changes for 2025 and what employees need to know.
But there’s an “exciting change” to catch-up contributions for a subset of older workers in 2025, thanks to Secure 2.0, according to certified financial planner Jamie Bosse, senior advisor at CGN Advisors in Manhattan, Kansas.
Starting in 2025, the catch-up contribution limit will jump to $11,250, about a 14% increase, for employees ages 60 to 63. Including the $23,500 limit, these workers can save a total of $34,750 in 2025.
Only 14% of employees maxed out 401(k) plans in 2023, according to Vanguard’s 2024 How America Saves report, based on data from 1,500 qualified plans and nearly 5 million participants.
On top of maxing out contributions, an estimated 15% of workers made catch-up contributions in plans that allowed it during 2023, the same report found.
Shorter wait for part-time workers
Secure 2.0 has also boosted access to 401(k) and 403(b) plans for certain part-time workers.
Starting in 2024, employers were required to extend plan access to part-time employees who worked at least 500 hours annually for three consecutive years. That threshold drops to two consecutive years in 2025.
“That’s a very good thing for long-term part-time workers” who may have struggled to qualify for 401(k) eligibility, said Stinnett.
That’s a very good thing for long-term part-time workers.
Dave Stinnett
Vanguard’s head of strategic retirement consulting
In March 2023, some 73% of civilian workers had access to workplaceretirement benefits, and 56% of workers participated in these plans, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
“Coverage is my thing,” said Alicia Munnell, director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College.
“It’s important that people have coverage no matter where they go,” including from full-time to part-time at the same job, she added.
Mandatory auto-enrollment for new 401(k) plans
Another Secure 2.0 change is auto-enrollment for certain 401(k) plans.
Starting in 2025, most 401(k) and 403(b) plans established after Dec. 28, 2022, must include automatic enrollment of eligible employees in the plan with a minimum 3% employee deferral rate.
“It’s unequivocally a positive step to take,” Munnell said. “More people will join, and more people will have savings because of that.”
Automatic enrollment and escalation — gradually increasing the contribution rate annually — are key plan designs to boost savings, Stinnett previously told CNBC.
But those features still may not result in employees saving enough. While experts recommend a 15% savings rate, most plans set a cap on automatic escalation. In 2022, 63% limited automated contributions to 10% or less of annual pay, according to the Plan Sponsor Council of America.
Stock traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Many large U.S. companies have seen their stocks swell since the presidential election.
The top 10 performing stocks in the S&P 500 index saw returns of 18% or more since Election Day, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence, which analyzed returns based on closing prices from Nov. 5 to Nov. 20.
Two companies — Axon Enterprise (AXON), which provides law-enforcement technology, and Tesla (TSLA), the electric-vehicle maker led by Elon Musk, an advisor to President-elect Donald Trump — saw their stocks gain more than 35%, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
By contrast, the S&P 500 gained about 2% over the same period.
‘Usually a bad idea’ to buy on short-term gain
Investors should be cautious about buying individual stocks based on short-term boosts, said Jeremy Goldberg, a certified financial planner, portfolio manager and research analyst at Professional Advisory Services, Inc., which ranked No. 37 on CNBC’s annual Financial Advisor 100 list.
“It’s usually a bad idea,” Goldberg said. “Momentum is a powerful force in the market, but relying solely on short-term price moves as an investment strategy is risky.”
Investors should understand what’s driving the movement and whether the factors pushing up a stock price are sustainable, Goldberg said.
Why did these stocks outperform?
Lofty stock returns were partly driven by Trump administration policy stances expected to benefit certain companies and industries, investment experts said.
Deregulation and a softer view toward mergers and acquisitions are two “key” themes driving bullish sentiment after Trump’s win, said Jacob Manoukian, head of U.S. investment strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank.
Relying solely on short-term price moves as an investment strategy is risky.
Jeremy Goldberg
portfolio manager and research analyst at Professional Advisory Services, Inc.
Additionally, U.S. regulators will likely be much less stringent about allowing potential mergers during Trump’s second term, experts said.
Companies in the streaming ecosystem — like Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), which owns the Max streaming service, and Disney+ owner The Walt Disney Co. (DIS) — may be benefactors of looser rules around consolidation, they said.
Rosy earnings and AI
For some stocks, outperformance was tied to rosy quarterly earnings results or guidance that some companies reported around or after Election Day, experts said.
Many such businesses cited artificial intelligence as a growth driver.
For example, Palantir Technologies (PLTR), cited “unprecedented” demand for its AI platform in the third quarter, helping deliver “exceptionally strong” earnings, Treasurer and CFO David Glazer told investors Nov. 4.
Likewise, Axon beat analysts’ estimates in its Nov. 7 earnings results, with officials touting its “AI era plan” and raising earnings guidance, Goldberg said.
Axon and Palantir stocks were up 38% and 22%, respectively, from Nov. 5 to Nov. 20, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Some companies benefited from a combination of policy and earnings, experts said.
Rows of servers fill Data Hall B at Facebook’s Fort Worth Data Center in Texas.
Paul Moseley/Fort Worth Star-Telegram/Tribune News Service via Getty Images
Take Vistra Corp. (VST), an energy provider, for example. The company’s stock jumped 27% after Election Day.
Vistra is in talks with large data centers — or “hyperscalers” — in Texas, Pennsylvania and Ohio to build or upgrade gas and nuclear plants, Stacey Doré, Vistra’s chief strategy and sustainability officer, said on the company’s Q3 earnings call Nov. 7.
Tesla’s stock got an “Elon Musk premium” from Trump’s victory, said Goldberg of Professional Advisory Services.
Musk, Tesla’s CEO, was one of Trump’s top campaign backers. Trump tapped him to co-lead a new Department of Government Efficiency. Shares of the electric-vehicle maker soared 14% the day after the election and almost 30% by week’s end.
President-elect Donald Trump and Elon Musk talk ring side during the UFC 309 event at Madison Square Garden on Nov. 16, 2024 in New York.
Chris Unger | Ufc | Getty Images
But Tesla stock has additional tailwinds, experts said.
For one, Trump wants to end a $7,500 federal tax credit for EVs. Scrapping that policy is expected to hurt Tesla’s EV rivals.
Tesla has also been developing technology for driverless vehicles. In Tesla’s recent earnings call, Musk said he’d use his influence in Trump’s administration to establish a “federal approval process for autonomous vehicles.”
The break from the bills is likely a relief to the many federal student loan borrowers enrolled in the Saving on a Valuable Education plan, known as SAVE. But it may also be causing them anxiety over the fact that they won’t get credit on their timeline to debt forgiveness.
For example, those also enrolled in the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program, who are entitled to loan cancellation after 10 years, have seen their journey toward that relief halted during the forbearance.
“Borrowers are frustrated about the delay toward forgiveness,” said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz. “They feel like they’ve been waiting for Godot.”
Here’s what borrowers enrolled in SAVE should know about the delay to debt cancellation.
Delay could stretch on for months
In October, the U.S. Department of Education said that roughly 8 million federal student loan borrowers will remain in an interest-free forbearance while the courts decide the fate of the SAVE plan.
A federal court issued an injunction earlier this year preventing the Education Department from implementing parts of the SAVE plan, which the Biden administration had described as the most affordable repayment plan in history. Under SAVE’s terms, many people expected to see their monthly bills cut in half.
The forbearance is supposed to help borrowers who were counting on those lower monthly bills. But unlike the Covid-era pause on federal student loan payments, this forbearance does not bring borrowers closer to debt forgiveness under an income-driven repayment plan or Public Service Loan Forgiveness.
Adding to borrowers’ annoyance is that “those enrolled in the SAVE Plan were not given the choice of forbearance,” said Elaine Rubin, director of corporate communications at Edvisors, which helps students navigate college costs and borrowing. If borrowers want to stay in SAVE, they can’t opt out of this pause.
Borrowers enrolled in PSLF are especially concerned, Kantrowitz said. That program requires borrowers to work in public service while they’re repaying their student loans.
“They have been working in a qualifying job, but aren’t making progress toward forgiveness,” he said. “Some borrowers are working a job they hate, but are sticking with it in the expectation of qualifying for forgiveness. Others are close to retirement and don’t want to have to work past their normal retirement age just to get the forgiveness.”
What borrowers can do
Despite the delay toward forgiveness, there are still a few good reasons for borrowers to stay enrolled in SAVE, experts say. During the forbearance, borrowers are excused from payments and interest on their debt does not accrue.
Keep in mind: Even if you make payments under SAVE during the forbearance, your loan servicer will just apply that money toward future payments owed once the pause ends, the Education Department says.
If you’re eager to be back on your way to debt cancellation, you have options.
You may be able switch into another income-driven repayment plan that is still available. Under that new plan, you may have to start making payments again. Yet if you earn under around $20,000 as a single person, your monthly payment could still be $0, and therefore you might not lose anything by switching, Kantrowitz said.
Changing plans might be especially appealing to those who are very close to crossing the finish line to debt forgiveness and just want to see their balance wiped away, experts said. (You’ll likely be placed in a processing forbearance for a period while your loan servicer makes that switch. During that time, you will get credit toward forgiveness.)
The Education Department is also offering those who’ve been working in public service for 10 years the chance to “buy back” certain months in their payment history. This allows borrowers to make payments to cover previous months for which they didn’t get credit. But to be eligible for the option, the purchased months need to bring you to the 120 payments required for loan forgiveness.
“The buyback option might be eliminated under the Trump administration,” Kantrowitz said. “So, if you want to use it, you should use it now.”