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What may happen to Social Security in 2033 if trust funds aren’t fixed

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Social Security may not be able to pay full Social Security retirement benefits as soon as 2033, based on current projections from the program’s trustees.

If Congress doesn’t move to fix the situation by that date, the general expectation is that millions of retirees could see a 21% across-the-board benefit cut.

The effects of that lost income could be enough to prompt a retirement crisis, since it would double the elderly poverty rate and reduce median senior household income by nearly 14%, according to new research titled, “A Simple Plan to Address Social Security Insolvency.”

Yet those broad benefit cuts would not necessarily have to happen, as the worst effects of insolvency could be prevented by executive action, according to the report by Andrew Biggs, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and Kristin Shapiro, counsel at BakerHostetler.

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Instead of across-the-board benefit cuts, benefits could be reallocated to avoid increases in poverty for low earners while having just a small effect on the middle class, according to Biggs.

“It means big cuts on very rich people, but it avoids what you might think of as a retirement crisis, where everything is thrown into upheaval,” Biggs said.

Why Social Security’s trust funds face depletion dates

Social Security draws from multiple sources to pay benefits — ongoing revenue from payroll taxes and income taxes, as well as trust funds that are used to supplement the monthly checks beneficiaries receive.

Yet as more people collect Social Security retirement benefits, the trust fund used to pay those benefits is running low. The depletion date — currently 2033 — represents the point at which the fund will be exhausted.

At that point, it is expected that 79% of those benefits will be payable.

Social Security has more than one trust fund, including one that pays retired workers, their families and survivors, and a second that pays disability benefits.

Together, those trust funds have a projected depletion date of 2035, when 83% of benefits would be payable. While merging the funds could provide additional financial runway, doing so it not allowed under current law, according to Biggs’ and Shapiro’s research.

How broad benefit cuts could be avoided

As the November election approaches, experts generally hope a new president and new Congress will address Social Security’s solvency.

“We far prefer for Congress to enact comprehensive Social Security reforms before 2033,” Biggs’ and Shapiro’s research states.

The sooner Congress acts, the better it will be for all beneficiaries involved, to give them more certainty, said Shai Akabas, executive director of the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Economic Policy Program. A recent survey from Nationwide Retirement Institute found 72% of adults worry Social Security will run out of funding in their lifetimes.

The roughly 21% across-the-board benefit cut is “untenable and unsustainable, both politically and financially from a household perspective,” Akabas said.

However, if lawmakers fail to come to an agreement by the depletion date, the president could move to protect beneficiaries from the worst effects of the ensuing cuts, according to Biggs and Shapiro.

Social Security Administration Commissioner: Congress needs to act in order to avoid the shortfall

Once the depletion date arrives — whether it remains 2033 or shifts to another year — the president at the time could move to cap monthly benefits at about $2,050, the research proposes.

That change would reduce payments to beneficiaries who receive more than that amount and make Social Security solvent without adding new debt or increasing taxes.

At the same time, about half of all retirees and survivors would still receive their full benefit payments. Notably, no retiree would be pushed into poverty, according to the research.

To be sure, if the fund depletion date were crossed, lawmakers would face an unprecedented situation.

What happens next would depend on the interpretation of Constitutional law. That could prompt litigation, the research notes, including from beneficiaries who may not receive the benefits they were promised.

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How to avoid delinquency, default, garnishment

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U.S. President Donald Trump talks to reporters aboard Air Force One, en route to Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, on May 15, 2025.

Brian Snyder | Reuters

As the Trump administration ramps up its student loan collection efforts, worried borrowers need to ask themselves a key question: Am I delinquent, or in default? The answer determines your best next steps.

“We’ve had a lot of clients contacting us recently who are extremely stressed and, in some cases panicked, about their loan situation,” said Nancy Nierman, assistant director of the Education Debt Consumer Assistance Program in New York.

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However, some borrowers wrongly believe they’ll be subject to wage garnishments or offsets of their retirement benefits — when in fact they are delinquent but not yet in default, Nierman said.

If you’re delinquent, there are things you can do to avoid default. And even those who are in default and at risk for collections can take steps to avoid such outcomes.

“The federal student loan system does provide several paths for bringing loans out of default,” she said.

Delinquent or in default? Here’s how to tell

Once you are delinquent for 90 days or more, your student loan servicer will report your past due status to the national credit bureaus, which can lead to a drop in your credit score.

The Federal Reserve predicted in March that some people with a student loan delinquency could see their scores fall by as much as 171 points. (Credit scores typically range from 300 to 850, with around 670 and higher considered good.)

Lower credit scores can lead to higher borrowing costs on consumer loans such as mortgages, car loans and credit cards.

But you’re not considered to be in default on your student loans until you haven’t made your scheduled payment in at least 270 days, the Education Department says.

Only borrowers in default face garnishments

The federal government has extraordinary collection powers on its student loans and it can seize borrowers’ tax refundspaychecks and Social Security retirement and disability benefits.

But only those who’ve defaulted on their student loans can face these consequences, experts said.

How to get out of student loan delinquency

How to get out of student loan default

Student loan default collection restarting

You can get out of default on your student loans through rehabilitating or consolidating your debt, Nierman said.

Rehabilitating involves making “nine voluntary, reasonable and affordable monthly payments,” according to the U.S. Department of Education. Those nine payments can be made over “a period of 10 consecutive months,” it said.

Consolidation, meanwhile, may be available to those who “make three consecutive, voluntary, on-time, full monthly payments.” At that point, they can essentially repackage their debt into a new loan.

After you’ve emerged from default, experts also recommend requesting a monthly bill you can afford.

If you don’t know who your loan servicer is, you can find out at Studentaid.gov.

“Explore your options and create a plan for returning your loans back to good standing so you will not be subject to punitive collections activity,” Nierman said.

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Why long-term care costs can be a ‘huge problem’

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Kate_sept2004 | E+ | Getty Images

Long-term care can be costly, extending well beyond $100,000. Yet, financial advisors say many households aren’t prepared to manage the expense.

“People don’t plan for it in advance,” said Carolyn McClanahan, a physician and certified financial planner based in Jacksonville, Florida. “It’s a huge problem.”

Over half, 57%, of Americans who turn 65 today will develop a disability serious enough to require long-term care, according to a 2022 report published by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and the Urban Institute. Such disabilities might include cognitive or nervous system disorders like dementia, Alzheimer’s or Parkinson’s disease, or complications from a stroke, for example.

The average future cost of long-term care for someone turning 65 today is about $122,400, the HHS-Urban report said.

But some people need care for many years, pushing lifetime costs well into the hundreds of thousands of dollars — a sum “out of reach for many Americans,” report authors Richard Johnson and Judith Dey wrote.

Planning for long-term care: Here's what you need to know

The number of people who need care is expected to swell as the U.S. population ages amid increasing longevity.

“It’s pretty clear [workers] don’t have that amount of savings in retirement, that amount of savings in their checking or savings accounts, and the majority don’t have long-term care insurance,” said Bridget Bearden, a research and development strategist at the Employee Benefit Research Institute.

“So where is the money going to come from?” she added.

Long-term care costs can exceed $100,000

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It seems many households are unaware of the potential costs, either for themselves or their loved ones.

For example, 73% of workers say there’s at least one adult for whom they may need to provide long-term care in the future, according to a new poll by the Employee Benefit Research Institute.

However, just 29% of these future caregivers — who may wind up footing at least part of the future bill —had estimated the future cost of care, EBRI found. Of those who did, 37% thought the price tag would fall below $25,000 a year, the group said.

The EBRI survey polled 2,445 employees from ages 20 to 74 years old in late 2024.

Many types of insurance often don’t cover costs

Maskot | Maskot | Getty Images

Where is the money going to come from?

Bridget Bearden

research and development strategist at the Employee Benefit Research Institute

But Medicare doesn’t cover “custodial” care, when someone needs help with daily activities like bathing, dressing, using the bathroom and eating, McClanahan said. These basic everyday tasks constitute the majority of long-term care needs, according to the HHS-Urban report.

Medicaid is the largest payer of long-term care costs today, Bearden said. Not everyone qualifies, though: Many people who get Medicaid benefits are from lower-income households, EBRI’s Bearden said. To receive benefits for long-term care, households may first have to exhaust a big chunk of their financial assets.

“You basically have to be destitute,” McClanahan said.

Republicans in Washington are weighing cuts to Medicaid as part of a large tax-cut package. If successful, it’d likely be harder for Americans to get Medicaid benefits for long-term care, experts said.

Long-term care insurance considerations

The Good Brigade | Digitalvision | Getty Images

Few households have insurance policies that specifically hedge against long-term care risk: About 7.5 million Americans had some form of long-term care insurance coverage in 2020, according to the Congressional Research Service.

By comparison, more than 4 million baby boomers are expected to retire per year from 2024 to 2027.

Washington state has a public long-term care insurance program for residents, and other states like California, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York and Pennsylvania are exploring their own.

How senior care became a $600 billion business

Long-term care insurance policies make most sense for people who have a high risk of needing care for a lengthy duration, McClanahan said. That may include those who have a high risk of dementia or have longevity in their family history, she said.

McClanahan recommends opting for a hybrid insurance policy that combines life insurance and a long-term care benefit; traditional stand-alone policies only meant for long-term care are generally expensive, she said.

Be wary of how the policy pays benefits, too, she said.

For example, “reimbursement” policies require the insured to choose from a list of preferred providers and submit receipts for reimbursement, McClanahan said. For some, especially seniors, that may be difficult without assistance, she said.

With “indemnity” policies, which McClanahan recommends, insurers generally write benefit checks as soon as the insured qualifies for assistance, and they can spend the money how they see fit. However, the benefit amount is often lower than reimbursement policies, she said.

How to be proactive about long-term care planning

“The challenge with long-term care costs is they’re unpredictable,” McClanahan said. “You don’t always know when you’ll get sick and need care.”

The biggest mistake McClanahan sees people make relative to long-term care: They don’t think about long-term care needs and logistics, or discuss them with family members, long before needing care.

How families are managing the steep costs of long term seniors care

For example, that may entail considering the following questions, McClanahan said:

  • Do I have family members that will help provide care? Would they offer financial assistance? Do I want to self-insure?
  • What are the financial logistics? For example, who will help pay your bills and make insurance claims?
  • Do I have good advance healthcare directives in place? For example, as I get sicker will I let family continue to keep me alive (which adds to long-term care expenses), or will I move to comfort care and hospice?
  • Do I want to age in place? (This is often a cheaper option if you don’t need 24-hour care, McClanahan said.)
  • If I want to age in place, is my home set up for that? (For example, are there many stairs? Is there a tiny bathroom in which it’s tough to maneuver a walker?) Can I make my home aging-friendly, if it’s not already? Would I be willing to move to a new home or perhaps another state with a lower cost of long-term care?
  • Do I live in a rural area where it may be harder to access long-term care?

Being proactive can help families save money in the long term, since reactive decisions are often “way more expensive,” McClanahan said.

“When you think through it in advance it keeps the decisions way more level-headed,” she said.

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College majors with the best and worst employment prospects

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AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post via Getty Images

College commencement is a time of optimism for newly minted graduates. But this year, there’s also more uncertainty about the economy and employment — and grads in some unexpected majors may find they have a leg up.

Majors in nutrition, art history and philosophy all outperformed STEM fields when it comes to employment prospects, according to a recent analysis of labor market outcomes of college graduates by major by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

For computer science and computer engineering, the unemployment rate in those fields was 6.1% and 7.5%, respectively — notably higher than the national average.

By comparison, the unemployment rate for art history majors was 3%, and for nutritional sciences, the unemployment rate was just 0.4%, the New York Fed found. The New York Fed’s report was based on Census data from 2023 and unemployment rates of recent college graduates.

Economics and finance majors also fared worse than those in theology and philosophy when it came to the employment rates for recent college graduates, according to the New York Fed.

Employment prospects are shifting

In general, what you choose to major in has significant implications for your job prospects and future earnings potential.

Majoring in STEM is often touted as the ticket to a well-paying position in good times and bad, and that is mostly true.

In fact, students who pursue a major specifically in computer science or computer engineering — both STEM disciplines — are projected to earn the most right out of school with median wages of $80,000.

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Even so, demand for humanities majors is on the rise, and with good reason, despite some student debt critics taking aim at the low value of some coursework, like “zombie studies,” for example.

At a conference last year, Robert Goldstein, the chief operating officer of BlackRock, the world’s biggest money manager, said the firm was adjusting its hiring strategy for recent grads. “We have more and more conviction that we need people who majored in history, in English, and things that have nothing to do with finance or technology,” Goldstein said.

This demand for liberal arts degrees is due in part to the rise of AI, which drives the need for creative thinking and so-called soft skills

Opportunities in health care

Meanwhile, jobs in the the health care sector continue to be in high demand in 2025.

The U.S. economy added 902,000 health care and social assistance jobs last year and employment in health care occupations is “projected to grow much faster than the average” for all U.S. jobs through 2033, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The unemployment rate among nursing majors is just 1.4%, the New York Fed also found.

“Nursing is extremely resilient in times of economic uncertainty, like we ae seeing right now,” said Travis Moore, a registered nurse and healthcare strategist at job site Indeed.

Although the median wage right out of school [for nurses] is lower than it is for economics and finance majors, heading into a possible economic downturn, job security may be a more important measure, he said.

“There’s a significant nursing shortage going on right now,” Moore said — and that “creates a really strong opportunity to get into a career with really low layoffs.”

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