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What may happen to Social Security in 2033 if trust funds aren’t fixed

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Social Security may not be able to pay full Social Security retirement benefits as soon as 2033, based on current projections from the program’s trustees.

If Congress doesn’t move to fix the situation by that date, the general expectation is that millions of retirees could see a 21% across-the-board benefit cut.

The effects of that lost income could be enough to prompt a retirement crisis, since it would double the elderly poverty rate and reduce median senior household income by nearly 14%, according to new research titled, “A Simple Plan to Address Social Security Insolvency.”

Yet those broad benefit cuts would not necessarily have to happen, as the worst effects of insolvency could be prevented by executive action, according to the report by Andrew Biggs, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and Kristin Shapiro, counsel at BakerHostetler.

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Instead of across-the-board benefit cuts, benefits could be reallocated to avoid increases in poverty for low earners while having just a small effect on the middle class, according to Biggs.

“It means big cuts on very rich people, but it avoids what you might think of as a retirement crisis, where everything is thrown into upheaval,” Biggs said.

Why Social Security’s trust funds face depletion dates

Social Security draws from multiple sources to pay benefits — ongoing revenue from payroll taxes and income taxes, as well as trust funds that are used to supplement the monthly checks beneficiaries receive.

Yet as more people collect Social Security retirement benefits, the trust fund used to pay those benefits is running low. The depletion date — currently 2033 — represents the point at which the fund will be exhausted.

At that point, it is expected that 79% of those benefits will be payable.

Social Security has more than one trust fund, including one that pays retired workers, their families and survivors, and a second that pays disability benefits.

Together, those trust funds have a projected depletion date of 2035, when 83% of benefits would be payable. While merging the funds could provide additional financial runway, doing so it not allowed under current law, according to Biggs’ and Shapiro’s research.

How broad benefit cuts could be avoided

As the November election approaches, experts generally hope a new president and new Congress will address Social Security’s solvency.

“We far prefer for Congress to enact comprehensive Social Security reforms before 2033,” Biggs’ and Shapiro’s research states.

The sooner Congress acts, the better it will be for all beneficiaries involved, to give them more certainty, said Shai Akabas, executive director of the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Economic Policy Program. A recent survey from Nationwide Retirement Institute found 72% of adults worry Social Security will run out of funding in their lifetimes.

The roughly 21% across-the-board benefit cut is “untenable and unsustainable, both politically and financially from a household perspective,” Akabas said.

However, if lawmakers fail to come to an agreement by the depletion date, the president could move to protect beneficiaries from the worst effects of the ensuing cuts, according to Biggs and Shapiro.

Social Security Administration Commissioner: Congress needs to act in order to avoid the shortfall

Once the depletion date arrives — whether it remains 2033 or shifts to another year — the president at the time could move to cap monthly benefits at about $2,050, the research proposes.

That change would reduce payments to beneficiaries who receive more than that amount and make Social Security solvent without adding new debt or increasing taxes.

At the same time, about half of all retirees and survivors would still receive their full benefit payments. Notably, no retiree would be pushed into poverty, according to the research.

To be sure, if the fund depletion date were crossed, lawmakers would face an unprecedented situation.

What happens next would depend on the interpretation of Constitutional law. That could prompt litigation, the research notes, including from beneficiaries who may not receive the benefits they were promised.

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Many Americans are worried about running out of money in retirement

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M Swiet Productions | Getty Images

Many Americans are worried they’ll run out of money in retirement.

In fact, a new survey from Allianz Life finds that 64% Americans worry more about running out of money than they do about dying. Among the reasons cited for those fears include high inflation, Social Security benefits not providing enough support and high taxes.

The fear of running out of money was most prominent for Gen Xers who are approaching retirement. However, a majority of millennials and baby boomers also said they worry about their money lasting, according to the online survey of 1,000 individuals conducted between January and February.

Separately, a new Employee Benefit Research Institute report finds most retirees say they are living the lifestyle they envisioned and are able to spend money within reason. Yet more than half of those surveyed agreed at least somewhat that they spend less because of worries they will run out of money, according to the survey of more than 2,700 individuals conducted between January and February.

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Meanwhile, a Northwestern Mutual survey reported that 51% of Americans think it’s “somewhat or very likely” they will outlive their savings. The survey polled 4,626 U.S. adults aged 18 and older in January.

Since those studies were conducted, new tariff policies have caused disturbance in the stock markets and prompted speculation that inflation may increase. Meanwhile, new leadership at the Social Security Administration has prompted fears about the continuity of benefits. Those headlines may negatively affect retirement confidence, experts say.

With employers now providing a 401(k) plan and other savings plans versus pensions, it is largely up to workers to manage how much they save heading into retirement and how much they spend once they reach that life stage. That responsibility can also lead to worries of running out of money in the future, experts say.

How to manage the ‘fear of outliving your resources’

Because of the unique risks every individual or couple faces when planning for retirement, the best approach is typically to transfer some of that burden to a third party, said David Blanchett, head of retirement research at PGIM DC Solutions.

Creating a guaranteed lifetime income stream that covers essential expenses can help reduce the financial impact of any events that require retirees to cut back on spending, Blanchett explained.

That should first start with delaying Social Security benefits, he said. While eligible retirees can claim benefits as early as 62, holding off up until age 70 can provide the biggest monthly benefits. Social Security is also unique in that it provides annual adjustments for inflation.

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Next, retirees may want to consider buying a lifetime income annuity that can help amplify the monthly income they can expect. Admittedly, those products can be complicated to understand. Therefore Blanchett recommends starting out by comparing very basic products like single premium immediate annuities that are easier to compare.

“Unless you do those things, you just can’t get rid of that fear of outliving your resources,” Blanchett said.

Without a guaranteed income stream, retirees bear all of the financial risk themselves, he said.

 “Retirement could last 10 years; it could last 40 years,” Blanchett said. “You just don’t know how long it’s going to be.”

Among retirees, there has been some hesitation to buy annuities, said Craig Copeland, EBRI’s director of wealth benefits research. Such a purchase requires parting with a lump sum of money in exchange for the promise of a guaranteed income stream.

“We see great increase in interest, but we aren’t seeing upticks in take up yet,” Copeland said. “I do think that’s going to start to change.”

What can help boost retirement confidence

To effectively plan for retirement, it helps to seek professional financial assistance, experts say.

Meanwhile, few people have a plan of their own for how they may live on the assets they’ve worked hard to accumulate, according to Kelly LaVigne, vice president of consumer insights at Allianz Life.

“This is something that you should not plan on doing on your own,” LaVigne said.

While the survey from Northwestern Mutual separately found individuals think they need $1.26 million to retire comfortably, the real number individuals need is based on their personal situation, said Kyle Menke, founder and wealth management advisor at Menke Financial, a Northwestern Mutual company.

In thinking about how life will look in 30 years, there are a variety of things to consider, Menke said. This includes stock market returns, taxes, inflation and medical expenses, he said.

Even people who have enough money for retirement often don’t feel confident in their ability to manage all of those factors on their own, he said. Financial advisors have the ability to run different simulations and stress test a plan, which can help give retirees and aspiring retirees the confidence they’re lacking.

“I think that’s where the biggest gap is,” said Menke, referring to the confidence Americans are lacking without a plan.

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Trump tariffs will hurt lower income Americans more than the rich: study

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Shipping containers at the Port of Seattle on April 16, 2025.

David Ryder/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Tariffs levied by President Donald Trump during his second term would hurt the poorest U.S. households more than the richest over the short term, according to a new analysis.

Tariffs are a tax that importers pay on foreign goods. Economists expect consumers to shoulder at least some of that tax burden in the form of higher prices, depending on how businesses pass along the costs.

In 2026, taxes for the poorest 20% of households would rise about four times more than those in the top 1%, if the current tariff policies were to stay in place. Those were findings according to an analysis published Wednesday by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy.

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For the bottom 20% of households — who will have incomes of less than $29,000 in 2026 — the tariffs will impose a tax increase equal to 6.2% of their income that year, on average, according to ITEP’s analysis.

Meanwhile, those in the top 1%, with an income of more than $915,000 a year, would see their taxes rise 1.7% relative to their income, on average, ITEP found.

Economists analyze the financial impact of policy relative to household income because it illustrates how their disposable income — and quality of life — are impacted.

Taxes by ‘another name’

“Tariffs are just taxes on Americans by another name,” researchers at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, wrote in 2017, during Trump’s first term.

“[They] raise the price of food and clothing, which make up a larger share of a low-income household’s budget,” they wrote, adding: “In fact, cutting tariffs could be the biggest tax cut low-income families will ever see.”

Meanwhile, there’s already evidence that some retailers are raising costs.

A recent analysis by the Yale Budget Lab also found that Trump tariffs are a “regressive” policy, meaning they hurt those at the bottom more than the top.  

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The short-term tax burden of tariffs is about 2.5 times greater for those at the bottom, the Yale analysis found. It examined tariffs and retaliatory trade measures through April 15.

“Lower income consumers are going to get pinched more by tariffs,” said Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Yale Budget Lab and former chief economist at the White House Council of Economic Advisers during the Biden administration.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said tariffs may lead to a “one-time price adjustment” for consumers. But he also coupled trade policy as part of a broader White House economic agenda that includes a forthcoming legislative package of tax cuts.

“We’re also working on the tax bill and for working Americans, I believe that the reduction in taxes is going to be substantially more,” Bessent said April 2.

It’s also unclear how current tariff policy might change. The White House has signaled trade deals with certain nations and exemptions for certain products may be in the offing.

Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on imports from most U.S. trading partners. Mexico and Canada face 25% levies on a tranche of goods, and many Chinese goods face import duties of 145%. Specific products also face tariffs, like a 25% duty on aluminum, steel and automobiles.

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These payments can be garnished for a defaulted student loan

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What payments can be garnished?

The U.S. government has extraordinary collection powers on federal debts and it can seize borrowers’ federal tax refunds, wages and Social Security retirement and disability benefits, according to higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

The federal government can intercept other funds such as state income tax refunds and lottery winnings, Kantrowitz said.

In some cases, federal student loan borrowers can also be sued by the U.S. Department of Justice, and face a levy on the funds in their bank accounts, he said.

How much money can be taken?

Social Security recipients can typically see up to 15% of their monthly benefit reduced to pay back their defaulted student debt, but beneficiaries need to be left with at least $750 a month, experts said.

Carolina Rodriguez, director of the Education Debt Consumer Assistance Program in New York, said she was especially concerned about the consequences of resumed collections on retirees.

“Losing a portion of their Social Security benefits to repay student loans could mean not having enough for food, transportation to medical appointments, or other basic necessities,” Rodriguez said.

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Meanwhile, your entire federal tax refund can be seized, including any refundable credits, Kantrowitz said. Fortunately, if you’ve already received your 2024 federal income tax refund, “the government cannot claw it back,” Kantrowitz said.

As for your wages, the federal government can garnish up to 15% of your disposable pay without a court order, Kantrowitz said. Wages of federal workers may be easier to seize, he added.

How can I avoid collection activity?

Take steps to get out of default and to try to avoid the start of any garnishments, experts said.

Borrowers in default will receive an e-mail over the next two weeks making them aware of the new policy, the Education Department said. You can contact the government’s Default Resolution Group and pursue a number of different avenues to get current on your loans, including enrolling in an income-driven repayment plan or signing up for loan rehabilitation

Some borrowers may also be eligible for deferments or a forbearance, which are different ways to pause your payments, Rodriguez said.

“We’re advising clients to request a retroactive forbearance to cover missed payments, and a temporary forbearance until they can get enrolled in an income-driven repayment plan,” she said.

If you do end up facing the garnishment of your Social Security benefits or wages, the government is required to provide you with notice before it starts its collection activity, Kantrowitz said. For your wages, a 30-day warning is required, while 65 days’ notice must be given before the seizure of Social Security benefits, he said.

You may have the option to have a hearing before an administrative law judge within 30 days of receiving a wage garnishment order, Kantrowitz said. Your wages may be protected if your employment has been spotty, or if you’ve filed for bankruptcy, he said.

“Borrowers can also challenge the wage garnishment if it will result in financial hardship,” Kantrowitz said.

You can dispute the offsets to your Social Security benefits, too, he said, by contacting the Education Department. The notice you receive should provide information on whom to contact.

Are you worried about the garnishment of payments such as wages or Social Security benefits? If you’re willing to share your experience for an upcoming story, please email me at [email protected].

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