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What to expect from the Fed in the coming year

The Federal Reserve announced Wednesday that it will lower its benchmark rate by another quarter point, or 25 basis points. This marks the third rate cut in a row — all together shaving a full percentage point off the federal funds rate since September.

For consumers struggling under the weight of high borrowing costs after a string of 11 rate increases between March 2022 and July 2023, this move comes as good news — although it may still be a while before lower rates noticeably affect household budgets.

“Interest rates took the elevator going up in 2022 and 2023 but are taking the stairs coming down,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com.

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Although many people, overall, are feeling better about their financial situation heading into the new year, nearly 9 in 10 Americans think inflation is still a problem, and 44% think the Fed has done a bad job getting it under control, according to a recent survey by WalletHub.

“Add in talk of widespread tariffs, and you’ve got a recipe for uneasy borrowers,” said John Kiernan, WalletHub’s managing editor.

In the meantime, high interest rates have affected all sorts of consumer borrowing costs, from auto loans to credit cards.

December’s 0.25 percentage point cut will lower the Fed’s overnight borrowing rate to a range of between 4.25% and 4.50%. Although that’s not the rate consumers pay, the Fed’s moves still affect the borrowing and savings rates consumers see every day.

From credit cards and mortgage rates to auto loans and savings accounts, here’s a look at how the Fed rate cut could affect your finances in the year ahead.

Credit cards

Most credit cards have a variable rate, so there’s a direct connection to the Fed’s benchmark. Because of the central bank’s rate hike cycle, the average credit card rate rose from 16.34% in March 2022 to more than 20% today — near an all-time high.

Since the central bank started cutting interest rates, the average credit card interest rate has only edged off extremely high levels. 

“Another rate cut is welcome news at the end of a chaotic year, but it ultimately doesn’t amount to much for those with debt,” said Matt Schulz, LendingTree’s credit analyst. “A quarter-point reduction may knock a dollar or two off your monthly debt payment. It certainly doesn’t change the fact that the best thing cardholders can do in 2025 is to take matters into their own hands when it comes to high interest rates.”

Rather than wait for small annual percentage rate adjustments in the months ahead, the best move for those with credit card debt is to consolidate with a 0% balance transfer card or a lower-interest personal loan, Schulz said.

Otherwise, ask your issuer for a lower rate on your current card — “that works way more often than you’d think,” he said.

Customers shop for groceries at a Costco store on December 11, 2024 in Novato, California. 

Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

Auto loans

Auto loan rates are also still sky-high — the average auto loan rates for used cars are at 13.76%, while new-vehicle rates are at 9.01%, according to Cox Automotive.

Since these loans are fixed and won’t adjust with the Fed’s rate cut, “this is another case where taking matters into your own hands is your best move,” Schulz said.

In fact, anyone planning to finance a car may be able to save more than $5,000, on average, by shopping around for the best rate, a 2023 LendingTree report found.

Mortgage rates

Because 15- and 30-year mortgage rates are fixed and mostly tied to Treasury yields and the economy, they are not falling in step with Fed policy. 

As of the latest tally, the average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage increased to 6.75% from 6.67% for the week ending Dec. 13, according to Mortgage Bankers Association.

“Mortgage rates have gone up — not down — since the Fed began cutting interest rates in September,” said Bankrate’s McBride.

“With expectations for fewer rate cuts in 2025, long-term bond yields have renewed their move higher, bringing mortgage rates back near 7%,” he said.

But since most people have fixed-rate mortgages, their rate won’t change unless they refinance or sell their current home and buy another property. 

Anyone shopping for a home can still find ways to save.

For example, a $350,000, 30-year fixed mortgage loan with an average rate of 6.6% would cost $56 less each month compared to November’s high of 6.84%, according to Jacob Channel, senior economic analyst at LendingTree.

“This may not seem like a lot of money at first glance, but a discount of about $62 a month translates to savings of $672 a year and $20,160 over the 30-year lifetime of the mortgage,” he said.

Student loans

Federal student loan rates are also fixed, so most borrowers won’t find much relief from rate cuts.

However, if you have a private loan, those loans may be fixed or have a variable rate tied to the Treasury bill or other rates. As the Fed cuts interest rates, the rates on those private student loans will come down over a one- or three-month period, depending on the benchmark, according to higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

Still, “a quarter-point interest rate cut would reduce the monthly loan payments by about $1 to $1.25 on a 10-year term, about a 1% reduction in the total loan payments,” Kantrowitz said.

Eventually, borrowers with existing variable-rate private student loans may be able to refinance into a less expensive fixed-rate loan, he said. But refinancing a federal loan into a private student loan will forgo the safety nets that come with federal loans, such as deferments, forbearances, income-driven repayment and loan forgiveness and discharge options.

Additionally, extending the term of the loan means you ultimately will pay more interest on the balance.

Savings rates

While the central bank has no direct influence on deposit rates, the yields tend to be correlated to changes in the target federal funds rate.

As a result of the Fed’s previous rate hikes, top-yielding online savings account rates have made significant moves and are still paying as much as 5% — the most savers have been able to earn in nearly two decades — up from around 1% in 2022, according to Bankrate.

“The prospect of the Fed moving at a slower pace next year is better news for savers than for borrowers,” McBride said. “The most competitive yields on savings accounts and certificates of deposit still handily outpace inflation.”

One-year CDs are now averaging 1.74%, but top-yielding CD rates pay more than 4.5%, according to Bankrate, nearly as good as a high-yield savings account.

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Here’s how to qualify for the retirement savings contributions credit

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There’s a lesser-known tax break for low- to moderate-income Americans who save for retirement. However, most eligible taxpayers don’t claim it, experts say.

The retirement savings contributions credit, or saver’s credit, helps offset funds added to an individual retirement account, 401(k) plan or another workplace plan. The tax break is worth up to $1,000 per filer.

It’s not too late if you didn’t make a qualifying contribution last year. There’s still time to make IRA deposits before April 15 to claim the credit on 2024 returns.

However, “the saver’s credit is a well-kept secret,” Catherine Collinson, CEO and president of Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies said in a February report. 

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Only about half of U.S. workers know about the saver’s credit, according to a survey from Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, which polled more than 10,000 U.S. adults in September and October. 

That percentage drops to 44% among taxpayers with a household income of less than $50,000. 

Awareness of the credit is very low across the board.

Emerson Sprick

Associate director for the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Economic Policy Program

“Awareness of the credit is very low across the board,” but it’s even lower among taxpayers who could qualify to use it, said Emerson Sprick, associate director for the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Economic Policy Program.

To that point, roughly 5.8% of returns claimed the saver’s credit in 2022, according to a the most recent IRS data. The average credit value that year was $194, according to a Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies analysis.

How the saver’s credit works

The saver’s credit can offset as much as 50% of retirement contributions up to $2,000 for single filers or $4,000 for married couples filing jointly, for maximum credits of $1,000 or $2,000, respectively.

The credit provides a dollar-for-dollar reduction of levies owed, which could reduce your tax bill or boost your refund. But the tax break is not “refundable,” which means there’s no benefit with $0 tax liability, Sprick explained.

“The way it’s calculated is fairly complex,” he said. 

There are income phase-outs to claim 50%, 20% or 10% of your contribution, depending on your filing status and adjusted gross income. You can use an IRS tool to see if you’re eligible. 

For 2024, your adjusted gross income can’t exceed $23,000 for single filers or $46,000 for married couples for the 50% credit. The percentages drop to 20% and 10%, respectively, as earnings increase, with a complete phase-out above $38,250 for individuals or $76,500 for joint filers.

Tax Tip: Earned Income Credit

Credit will soon be replaced

Because of the credit’s design and workers’ lack of awareness, “the uptake of this is really low,” Sprick said.

That’s part of the motivation for the “saver’s match” enacted via Secure 2.0, which will replace the saver’s credit in 2027 and deposit money directly into taxpayers accounts, he said.

“Everyone hopes that it’s going to be easier,” Sprick said. But “there are a lot of logistics that remain to be worked out.”

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What to know about selecting health plans

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Although a broader window for Medicare enrollment has closed, some retirees have another opportunity to make changes to their coverage.

Medicare Advantage open enrollment is available from Jan. 1 through March 31.

Medicare Advantage plans are offered by private insurers as an alternative to original Medicare. Generally, Medicare Advantage may cover Medicare Parts A and B, as well as Medicare Part D prescription drug coverage and other potential extra benefits.

During this open enrollment period, individuals who are already enrolled in a Medicare Advantage plan may switch to another Medicare Advantage plan. Alternatively, they may drop their current Medicare Advantage plan and opt for Medicare original coverage.

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To be sure, there will be more options later in the year during a broader open enrollment period that lasts from October to December, when Medicare original enrollees may also opt to change plans.

For beneficiaries who are eligible to make changes during this time, it’s important not to ignore this window, according to Juliette Cubanski, deputy director of the program on Medicare policy at KFF, a provider of health policy research.

“Plans can change considerably from one year to the next,” Cubanski said. “If people don’t compare their coverage to other options, they may not know that they’re going to be faced with higher costs.”

Check for significant changes

In order to be confident that you’re getting the best deal, it helps to evaluate how your current Advantage plan may have changed since last year.

You may be faced with higher costs if your personal prescriptions have gone up, for example, or your preferred medical provider is no longer in network.

Digging into those plan changes now can help avoid “bad surprises” later, according to Cubanski.

“Make sure the coverage that you have is going to continue to be the coverage that works best for you,” Cubanski said.

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Consider extra benefits

To be sure, Medicare Advantage plans have received negative attention because in some cases coverage was denied for necessary care.

Medicare Advantage plans are more likely than traditional Medicare to use prior authorization, approval needed before a patient can receive certain services or medications. However, because prior authorizations that have been denied are frequently overturned when they are appealed, that has prompted questions as to whether the plans are avoiding coverage obligations.

Medicare Advantage plans are more likely than original Medicare to offer extra benefits — such as dental, vision and hearing — that elderly beneficiaries need.

Most Medicare beneficiaries — 83% — consider supplemental benefits to be important to their coverage, according to a recent survey from The Commonwealth Fund, a provider of independent research on health care issues.

Notably, a larger share of Medicare Advantage enrollees — 89% — said supplemental benefits are important to them, versus 74% of traditional Medicare enrollees, The Commonwealth Fund found.

“People on Medicare, both older adults and those with disabilities, generally really need dental, hearing and vision services, as well as other benefits that are typically offered by Medicare Advantage plans,” said Gretchen Jacobson, vice president of Medicare at The Commonwealth Fund.

Beneficiaries who are in traditional Medicare may not have coverage for those same services unless they are able to purchase a supplemental plan or they qualify for Medicaid, Jacobson said.

Seek outside help

When it comes to comparing Advantage plans, beneficiaries do not have to go it alone, Cubanski noted.

State-based organizations — the State Health Insurance Program, or SHIP — provide assistance to Medicare beneficiaries to help sort through their plan options.

Unlike insurance brokers or other professionals, these organizations do not have a financial interest to sign people up for certain plans, Cubanski said.

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Federal judge blocks Musk’s DOGE access to student loan borrowers’ data

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Elon Musk speaks during the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in National Harbor, Maryland, U.S., Feb. 20, 2025. 

Nathan Howard | Reuters

A federal judge in Maryland on Monday granted a temporary restraining order barring staffers from Elon Musk‘s secretive government-slashing effort, the Department of Government Efficiency, from accessing the personal information of millions of student loan borrowers.

The order, issued by Judge Deborah Boardman, ruled that the Department of Education and the Office of Personnel Management — the government’s HR department — must stop sharing federal employees’ and student borrowers’ personal data with DOGE officials. It marks a significant limitation on DOGE’s access to Americans’ personal data.

Boardman’s order bars DOGE from the personal information at the Education Department until March 10 at 8 a.m.

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Workers for DOGE have entered government offices in recent weeks, looking to make deep cuts to federal spending.

Boardman’s order came in response to a lawsuit led by The American Federation of Teachers, a union representing 1.8 million members. The AFT sued several federal agencies, including the Education Department, for permitting DOGE access to individuals’ private data.

AFT president Randi Weingarten applauded Boardman’s decision.

“When people give their financial and other personal information to the federal government — namely to secure financial aid for their kids to go to college, or to get a student loan — they expect that data to be protected and used for the reasons it was intended,” Weingarten said.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request from CNBC for comment.

There are currently six DOGE “affiliates” working at the Education Department, according to the court order. DOGE has claimed that it needed access to student loan programs to investigate waste, fraud and abuse, Boardman said.

However, the judge said the order that the government didn’t explain why DOGE affiliates at the Education Department “need such comprehensive, sweeping access to the plaintiffs’ records to audit student loan programs.”

Boardman expressed concern that DOGE had access to people’s income information and Social Security numbers.

And she wrote that the plaintiffs would likely be successful in their claim that the Education Department’s disclosure of their records to DOGE staffers violates The Privacy Act, a federal law that applies to federal agencies and is meant to protect individuals’ personal information.

“The data in question includes really sensitive information on a population of people who had to give that information for one clear purpose: borrow money to get an education,” said Ben Winters, the director of artificial intelligence and privacy at the Consumer Federation of America.

“It’s crucial that institutions like governments only allow your data to be used for strictly the purpose you gave it for,” Winters said.

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