Finance

What the stock market typically does after the U.S. election, according to history

Published

6 months ago

November 4, 2024

Business Finance News

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange on Oct. 24, 2024.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

Stocks typically rise after a presidential election — but investors need to be prepared for some short-term choppiness first, history shows.

The three major benchmarks on average have seen gains between Election Day and year-end in the presidential election year going back to 1980, according to CNBC data. However, investors shouldn’t be expecting a straight shot up in the market after polls close.

The S&P 500 after the election

Election Date	Day After	Week After	Month Later	Year End
11/3/2020	2.20%	5.23%	8.83%	11.48%
11/8/2016	1.11%	1.91%	4.98%	4.64%
11/6/2012	-2.37%	-3.77%	-1.01%	-0.15%
11/4/2008	-5.27%	-10.62%	-15.96%	-10.19%
11/2/2004	1.12%	2.97%	5.29%	7.20%
11/7/2000	-1.58%	-3.42%	-6.17%	-7.79%
11/5/1996	1.46%	2.16%	4.23%	3.72%
11/3/1992	-0.67%	-0.31%	2.38%	3.76%
11/8/1988	-0.66%	-2.48%	0.52%	0.93%
11/6/1984	-0.73%	-2.61%	-4.49%	-1.86%
11/4/1980	2.12%	1.72%	5.77%	5.21%
Average	-0.30%	-0.84%	0.40%	1.54%
Median	-0.66%	-0.31%	2.38%	3.72%

Source: CNBC

In fact, the three indexes have all averaged declines in the session and week following those voting days. Stocks have tended to erase most or all of those losses within a month, CNBC data shows.

This means investors shouldn’t be anticipating an immediate pop on Wednesday or the next few days after.

The Dow after the election

Election Date	Day After	Week After	Month Later	Year End
11/3/2020	1.34%	7.06%	9.06%	11.38%
11/8/2016	1.40%	3.22%	6.99%	7.80%
11/6/2012	-2.36%	-3.70%	-1.30%	-1.07%
11/4/2008	-5.05%	-9.68%	-12.98%	-8.82%
11/2/2004	1.01%	3.49%	5.47%	7.45%
11/7/2000	-0.41%	-2.48%	-3.06%	-1.51%
11/5/1996	1.59%	3.04%	5.85%	6.04%
11/3/1992	-0.91%	-0.83%	0.74%	1.50%
11/8/1988	-0.43%	-2.37%	0.67%	1.93%
11/6/1984	-0.88%	-3.02%	-5.92%	-2.62%
11/4/1980	1.70%	0.73%	3.55%	2.86%
Average	-0.27%	-0.41%	0.83%	2.27%
Median	-0.41%	-0.83%	0.74%	1.93%

Source: CNBC

That’s especially true given the chance that the presidential race, which is considered neck-and-neck, may not be called by Wednesday morning. America may also need to wait for close Congressional races to have final counts for determining which party has control of the either house.

The Nasdaq Composite after the election

Election Day	Day After	Week After	Month Later	Year End
11/3/2020	3.85%	3.52%	10.90%	15.48%
11/8/2016	1.11%	1.58%	4.31%	3.65%
11/6/2012	-2.48%	-4.25%	-0.75%	0.25%
11/4/2008	-5.53%	-11.19%	-18.79%	-11.41%
11/2/2004	0.98%	2.95%	8.00%	9.61%
11/7/2000	-5.39%	-8.12%	-19.41%	-27.67%
11/5/1996	1.34%	2.23%	5.78%	5.04%
11/3/1992	0.16%	3.83%	8.56%	11.97%
11/8/1988	-0.29%	-1.77%	-0.96%	0.67%
11/6/1984	-0.32%	-1.08%	-4.58%	-1.27%
11/4/1980	1.49%	0.97%	6.75%	4.76%
Average	-0.46%	-1.03%	-0.02%	1.01%
Median	0.16%	0.97%	4.31%	3.65%

Source: CNBC

The “election is now center stage as the next catalyst for financial markets,” said Amy Ho, executive director of strategic research at JPMorgan. “We caution that uncertainty could linger on the outcome as the timeline for certifying election results could take days for the presidential race and weeks for the House races.”

This election comes amid a strong year for stocks that’s pushed the broader market to all-time highs. With a gain of about 20%, 2024 has seen the best first 10 months of a presidential election year since 1936, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

Finance

More Americans buy groceries with buy now, pay later loans

Published

4 hours ago

April 26, 2025

Business Finance News

People shop for produce at a Walmart in Rosemead, California, on April 11, 2025.

Frederic J. Brown | Afp | Getty Images

A growing number of Americans are using buy now, pay later loans to buy groceries, and more people are paying those bills late, according to new Lending Tree data released Friday.

The figures are the latest indicator that some consumers are cracking under the pressure of an uncertain economy and are having trouble affording essentials such as groceries as they contend with persistent inflation, high interest rates and concerns around tariffs.

In a survey conducted April 2-3 of 2,000 U.S. consumers ages 18 to 79, around half reported having used buy now, pay later services. Of those consumers, 25% of respondents said they were using BNPL loans to buy groceries, up from 14% in 2024 and 21% in 2023, the firm said.

Meanwhile, 41% of respondents said they made a late payment on a BNPL loan in the past year, up from 34% in the year prior, the survey found.

Lending Tree’s chief consumer finance analyst, Matt Schulz, said that of those respondents who said they paid a BNPL bill late, most said it was by no more than a week or so.

“A lot of people are struggling and looking for ways to extend their budget,” Schulz said. “Inflation is still a problem. Interest rates are still really high. There’s a lot of uncertainty around tariffs and other economic issues, and it’s all going to add up to a lot of people looking for ways to extend their budget however they can.”

“For an awful lot of people, that’s going to mean leaning on buy now, pay later loans, for better or for worse,” he said.

He stopped short of calling the results a recession indicator but said conditions are expected to decline further before they get better.

“I do think it’s going to get worse, at least in the short term,” said Schulz. “I don’t know that there’s a whole lot of reason to expect these numbers to get better in the near term.”

The loans, which allow consumers to split up purchases into several smaller payments, are a popular alternative to credit cards because they often don’t charge interest. But consumers can see high fees if they pay late, and they can run into problems if they stack up multiple loans. In Lending Tree’s survey, 60% of BNPL users said they’ve had multiple loans at once, with nearly a fourth saying they have held three or more at once.

“It’s just really important for people to be cautious when they use these things, because even though they can be a really good interest-free tool to help you kind of make it from one paycheck to the next, there’s also a lot of risk in mismanaging it,” said Schulz. “So people should tread lightly.”

Lending Tree’s findings come after Billboard revealed that about 60% of general admission Coachella attendees funded their concert tickets with buy now, pay later loans, sparking a debate on the state of the economy and how consumers are using debt to keep up their lifestyles. A recent announcement from DoorDash that it would begin accepting BNPL financing from Klarna for food deliveries led to widespread mockery and jokes that Americans were struggling so much that they were now being forced to finance cheeseburgers and burritos.

Over the last few years, consumers have held up relatively well, even in the face of persistent inflation and high interest rates, because the job market was strong and wage growth had kept up with inflation — at least for some workers.

Earlier this year, however, large companies including Walmart and Delta Airlines began warning that the dynamic had begun to shift and they were seeing cracks in demand, which was leading to worse-than-expected sales forecasts.