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What the stock market typically does after the U.S. election, according to history

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Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange on Oct. 24, 2024.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

Stocks typically rise after a presidential election — but investors need to be prepared for some short-term choppiness first, history shows.

The three major benchmarks on average have seen gains between Election Day and year-end in the presidential election year going back to 1980, according to CNBC data. However, investors shouldn’t be expecting a straight shot up in the market after polls close.

The S&P 500 after the election

Election Date Day After Week After Month Later Year End
11/3/2020 2.20% 5.23% 8.83% 11.48%
11/8/2016 1.11% 1.91% 4.98% 4.64%
11/6/2012 -2.37% -3.77% -1.01% -0.15%
11/4/2008 -5.27% -10.62% -15.96% -10.19%
11/2/2004 1.12% 2.97% 5.29% 7.20%
11/7/2000 -1.58% -3.42% -6.17% -7.79%
11/5/1996 1.46% 2.16% 4.23% 3.72%
11/3/1992 -0.67% -0.31% 2.38% 3.76%
11/8/1988 -0.66% -2.48% 0.52% 0.93%
11/6/1984 -0.73% -2.61% -4.49% -1.86%
11/4/1980 2.12% 1.72% 5.77% 5.21%
Average -0.30% -0.84% 0.40% 1.54%
Median -0.66% -0.31% 2.38% 3.72%

Source: CNBC

In fact, the three indexes have all averaged declines in the session and week following those voting days. Stocks have tended to erase most or all of those losses within a month, CNBC data shows.

This means investors shouldn’t be anticipating an immediate pop on Wednesday or the next few days after.

The Dow after the election

Election Date Day After Week After Month Later Year End
11/3/2020 1.34% 7.06% 9.06% 11.38%
11/8/2016 1.40% 3.22% 6.99% 7.80%
11/6/2012 -2.36% -3.70% -1.30% -1.07%
11/4/2008 -5.05% -9.68% -12.98% -8.82%
11/2/2004 1.01% 3.49% 5.47% 7.45%
11/7/2000 -0.41% -2.48% -3.06% -1.51%
11/5/1996 1.59% 3.04% 5.85% 6.04%
11/3/1992 -0.91% -0.83% 0.74% 1.50%
11/8/1988 -0.43% -2.37% 0.67% 1.93%
11/6/1984 -0.88% -3.02% -5.92% -2.62%
11/4/1980 1.70% 0.73% 3.55% 2.86%
Average -0.27% -0.41% 0.83% 2.27%
Median -0.41% -0.83% 0.74% 1.93%

Source: CNBC

That’s especially true given the chance that the presidential race, which is considered neck-and-neck, may not be called by Wednesday morning. America may also need to wait for close Congressional races to have final counts for determining which party has control of the either house.

The Nasdaq Composite after the election

Election Day Day After Week After Month Later Year End
11/3/2020 3.85% 3.52% 10.90% 15.48%
11/8/2016 1.11% 1.58% 4.31% 3.65%
11/6/2012 -2.48% -4.25% -0.75% 0.25%
11/4/2008 -5.53% -11.19% -18.79% -11.41%
11/2/2004 0.98% 2.95% 8.00% 9.61%
11/7/2000 -5.39% -8.12% -19.41% -27.67%
11/5/1996 1.34% 2.23% 5.78% 5.04%
11/3/1992 0.16% 3.83% 8.56% 11.97%
11/8/1988 -0.29% -1.77% -0.96% 0.67%
11/6/1984 -0.32% -1.08% -4.58% -1.27%
11/4/1980 1.49% 0.97% 6.75% 4.76%
Average -0.46% -1.03% -0.02% 1.01%
Median 0.16% 0.97% 4.31% 3.65%

Source: CNBC

The “election is now center stage as the next catalyst for financial markets,” said Amy Ho, executive director of strategic research at JPMorgan. “We caution that uncertainty could linger on the outcome as the timeline for certifying election results could take days for the presidential race and weeks for the House races.”

This election comes amid a strong year for stocks that’s pushed the broader market to all-time highs. With a gain of about 20%, 2024 has seen the best first 10 months of a presidential election year since 1936, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

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CFPB expands oversight of Apple Pay, other digital payments services

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Rohit Chopra, director of the CFPB, testifies during the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing titled “The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s Semi-Annual Report to Congress,” in the Dirksen Building on Nov. 30, 2023.

Tom Williams | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on Thursday issued a finalized version of a rule saying it will soon supervise nonbank firms that offer financial services likes payments and wallet apps.

Tech giants and payments firms that handle at least 50 million transactions annually will fall under the review, which is meant to ensure the newer entrants adhere to the laws that banks and credit unions abide by, the CFPB said in a release. That would include popular services from Apple and Google, as well as payment firms like PayPal and Block.  

While the CFPB already had some authority over digital payment companies because of its oversight of electronic fund transfers, the new rule allows it to treat tech companies more like banks. It makes the firms subject to “proactive examinations” to ensure legal compliance, enabling it to demand records and interview employees.

“Digital payments have gone from novelty to necessity and our oversight must reflect this reality,” said CFPB Director Rohit Chopra. “The rule will help to protect consumer privacy, guard against fraud, and prevent illegal account closures.”

A year ago, the CFPB said it wanted to extend its oversight to tech and fintech companies that offer financial services but that have sidestepped more scrutiny by partnering with banks. Americans are increasingly using payment apps as de facto bank accounts, storing cash and making everyday purchases through their mobile phones.

The most popular apps covered by the rule collectively process more than 13 billion consumer payments a year, and have gained “particularly strong adoption” among low- and middle-income users, the CFPB said on Thursday.

“What began as a convenient alternative to cash has evolved into a critical financial tool, processing over a trillion dollars in payments between consumers and their friends, families, and businesses,” the regulator said.

The initial proposal would’ve subjected companies that process at least 5 million transactions annually to some of the same examinations that the CFPB conducts on banks and credit unions. That threshold got raised to 50 million transactions in the final rule, the agency said Thursday.

Payment apps that only work at a particular retailer, like Starbucks, are excluded from the rule.

The new CFPB rule is one of the rare instances where the U.S. banking industry publicly supported the regulator’s actions; banks have long felt that tech firms making inroads in financial services ought to be more scrutinized.

The CFPB said the rule will take effect 30 days after its publication in the Federal Register.

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Baidu Q3 2024 earnings:

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Baidu on Nov. 12, 2024, unveiled a pair of glasses with a built-in AI assistant, putting up a Chinese rival to the Meta Ray-Bans that have proven a rare success in AI-powered hardware. 

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

BEIJING — Chinese tech giant Baidu on Thursday posted a 3% annual drop in third-quarter revenue, nevertheless beating market expectations amid AI cloud growth.

The revenue print came in at $4.78 billion for the quarter ending on Sept. 30. Net income for the period rose by 14% to $1.09 billion.

Baidu noted a 12% surge in its non-online marketing revenue to the equivalent of $1.1 billion, mainly driven by its artificial intelligence cloud business.

Here’s what analysts expected the company to report for the quarter, according to LSEG estimates:

  • Revenue: $4.63 billion
  • Net income: $857.17 million

Baidu had reported revenue of 34.45 billion yuan ($4.75 billion) and net income of 6.68 billion yuan for the third quarter of 2023.

Beijing-based Baidu operates one of the major web browser search engines in China, along with a frequently used maps app. The company also sells cloud computing services. Online marketing drives a significant portion of the firm’s revenue.

In artificial intelligence, Baidu has promoted its Ernie chatbot as a local alternative to OpenAI’s ChatGPT, which isn’t available in China. Ernie bot now has 430 million users, Baidu said last week.

The company this month also announced that its Xiaodu AI Glasses will begin sales in the first half of next year. The wearable has at least one camera and uses Ernie’s AI capabilities and Baidu’s maps and search functions. While Baidu hasn’t revealed a price, the product is widely expected to be a Chinese alternative to Meta’s popular Ray-Ban smart glasses.

Baidu announced a management rotation last month, with Junjie He, formerly head of the mobile ecosystem group, becoming the company’s interim Chief Financial Officer, while former CFO Rong Luo assumed leadership of the mobile division.

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