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What Trump’s presidency could mean for the housing market in the U.S.

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President-elect Donald Trump wants to address housing affordability in the U.S. by fomenting the construction of new homes.

“We’re going to open up tracks of federal land for housing construction,” Trump said during an Aug. 15 news conference. “We desperately need housing for people who can’t afford what’s going on now.”

As of mid-2023, there has been a housing shortage of 4 million homes in the U.S., according to the National Association of Realtors.

“It’s clear that the prescription for that crisis is more building,” said Jim Tobin, president and CEO of the National Association of Home Builders. 

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There has been a small increase in new homes being built this year, but it’s still not enough to meet the high demand for housing, leaving a significant gap in the market where there are not enough homes available for buyers, experts say.

Single-family housing starts in the U.S., a measure of new homes that began construction, grew to 1,027,000 in September, according to U.S. Census data. That is a 2.7% jump from August.

While building more homes is the simpler answer to address the housing issue in the country, other promises Trump has made could deter affordability efforts, experts say.

For instance, Trump has talked about enacting a mass deportation of immigrants in the U.S. But doing so might lead to higher building costs, as the construction industry depends on immigrant labor, said Jacob Channel, senior economist at LendingTree.

He also claimed that he would pull down mortgage rates back to pandemic-era lows, although presidents do not control mortgage rates, experts say.

Here’s how some of Trump’s policies could affect the housing market during his administration, according to experts:

1. Deregulation to increase affordability

At the end of Trump’s first presidency, he signed an executive order creating “Eliminating Regulatory Barriers to Affordable Housing: Federal, State, Local and Tribal Opportunities.” 

“That could be a blueprint going forward,” said Dennis Shea, executive director of the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Terwilliger Center.   

During his 2024 campaign, Trump called for slashing regulations and permit requirements, which can add onto housing costs for homebuyers. Experts say that regulatory costs trickle down to the prices homebuyers face.

“We will eliminate regulations that drive up housing costs with the goal of cutting the cost of a new home in half,” Trump said in a speech at the Economic Club of New York on Sept. 5. 

About 24% of the cost of a single-family home and about 41% of the cost of a multifamily home are directly attributable to regulatory costs at the local, state and federal level, Tobin said. 

“If we reduce the regulatory burden on home construction or apartment construction, we’re going to lower costs [for] the consumer,” Tobin said.   

2. Impacts on construction workforce

Trump has also blamed rising home prices on a surge of illegal immigration during the Biden administration. However, experts say that most undocumented immigrants are not homeowners.

Instead, they live in homes owned by U.S. citizens, Channel said. If a mass deportation were to happen, such homes would remain occupied, he added.

Yet, proposals like mass deportations and tighter border control could impact housing affordability, Tobin said.

About a third, or 31%, of construction workers in the U.S. were immigrants, according to the NAHB.

“Anything that threatens to disrupt the flow of immigrant labor will send shock waves to the labor market in home construction,” Tobin said. 

It’s been difficult to recruit native-born workers into the construction industry, experts say.

According to a 2017 NAHB survey, construction trades are an unpopular career choice for young American adults. Only 3% showed interest in the field, the poll found.

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Therefore, a mass sweeping of available workers can create a labor shortage in construction. And with fewer workers, wages might increase, which “will likely be passed onto consumers” through higher home prices, Channel said.

What’s more, it will take longer for construction companies to complete housing projects and therefore slow down efforts to increase supply, he added.

While “we are doing a better job” training the domestic workforce through trade schools, apprenticeship programs and other initiatives, the industry still heavily relies on immigrant labor, Tobin said.

3. Tariffs could hike building costs

Trump has proposed a 10% to 20% tariff on all imports across the board, as well as a rate between 60% and 100% for goods from China.

A blanket tariff at 10% to 20% on raw building materials like lumber could push housing costs higher, as well as materials for home renovations, experts say. 

“Any tariffs that raise the cost of the products are going to flow directly to the consumer,” Tobin said.

On average, construction costs for single-family homes is around $392,241, according to a data analysis by ResiClub, a housing and real estate data newsletter.

“It depends on what the tariffs look like,” said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin. “There could be varying impacts.”

Overall, homebuilders expect to construct about 1.2 million new single-family homes and around 300,000 multifamily units over the next year, Tobin said.

“We’re not quite building back up to the pace that we need to, but it’ll be higher,” he said. “It’ll be higher than this year.”

It might be too soon to tell if the Trump administration will prioritize housing costs as much as a Harris administration would have. And the aid Trump has mentioned might not help densely populated areas, said Fairweather.

Trump mentioned plans to release federal lands for housing, but federal lands tend to concentrate in rural areas, she said.

“That doesn’t do anything for these densely populated blue cities that really need the most help,” Fairweather said.

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Even U.S. presidents make mistakes with their money, author says

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Thomas Jefferson, 1848/1879. Artist George Peter Alexander Healy.

Heritage Images | Hulton Fine Art Collection | Getty Images

Before becoming president, ‘they are just like us’

Annie Nova: How much do presidents actually manage their own money? I imagine they outsource much of that strategizing and effort.

Megan Gorman: Well, up until most of them become president, they are just like us. They are managing their budgets and trying to grow assets. But what was striking in looking at their finances across different eras is that a lot of the same issues that we struggle with today, are ones that Americans have always struggled with.

The difference is that in many ways it is much harder today to achieve the American Dream. 

After all, Richard Nixon was able to go to college in 1930 for $230 a year. That’s around $8,000 in today’s dollars. And, in 1886, Grover Cleveland could buy a home on 26 and ¼ acres about three miles north of the White House for $21,500, the equivalent of $700,000 today.

‘Money caused and causes anxiety for everyone’

AN: Who was the most frugal president?

MG: Calvin Coolidge was incredibly frugal. He would have told you he was “thrifty.” Part of this comes from advice he received from his father growing up: that it was important to save and allow money to compound. Even when he was in the White House, the head housekeeper complained that he was always poking his head in to check on the cost of food being purchased.

The one that surprises most people was that John F. Kennedy was pretty frugal as well. Just because he came from money didn’t mean he wasn’t keeping an eye on the bottom line. Throughout his life, friends noted that he was “tight with a buck” and monitored costs.

AN: Was there a president who overspent?

MG: The biggest spender of them all was Thomas Jefferson. Jefferson had very nice taste, and that taste was enhanced from his time in France. If there was ever a dinner party you wanted to attend, it was Jefferson’s. Even up to the time he passed away, he was still trying to buy wine on credit.

Interestingly enough, given the debt he had when he was dying — more than $2 million in today’s numbers, he was clever in that he made sure in his estate plan that assets passed to his daughter and son-in-law could not be attached by creditors.

Megan Gorman, author of All The Presidents’ Money.

Photo: Marc Cartwright

AN: For whom did money cause the most anxiety?

MG: Money caused and causes anxiety for everyone. That being said, some handled it better than others. 

For instance, Ronald Reagan used budgeting as a mechanism to manage emotion when it came to money. This is no surprise given that he grew up in a financially unstable household with an alcoholic father. The Reagans would at times have to leave town in the middle of the night to get away from their landlord as they didn’t have the money to pay rent. As Reagan got older, he found that having a budget and sticking to it allowed him to manage his financial anxiety.

Early experiences informed money habits

AN: Who had the most financial struggles before becoming president?

MG: Harry Truman is one that easily comes to mind. Truman spent the first four decades of his life going through a lot of financial volatility. From his father losing all their money so he couldn’t go to college, to Truman having a series of unsuccessful business ventures including a zinc mine, an oil well and the famous haberdashery, he really struggled. 

But it wasn’t until he was in the presidency that he was able to save his salary along with a special stipend he received for two years that was tax-free. At the time of his death, he was worth $750,000, or $8 million today.

AN: How did a president’s childhood experiences impact their financial behavior?

MG: The best example would have to be Herbert Hoover.

Hoover’s story could have gone completely wrong for him. He lost both of his parents by the age of 9. He and his siblings are split up among different family members but they share the same financial guardian. So from an early age, Hoover is required to budget and submit his expenses to this guardian.

As he becomes a teenager, he takes on bookkeeping for his uncle’s business and really learns to be a “financial apprentice.” The budgeting and bookkeeping have such an impact on his financial skills that he becomes the treasurer of his class at Stanford. 

He just keeps building on his skill set again and again. That skill set would grow him great wealth — and allow him to do a lot of charitable work over his lifetime.

Money opps in post-presidential life

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Here’s the deflation breakdown for October 2024 — in one chart

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As inflation has throttled back from pandemic-era highs, consumers have seen prices decline outright for many household items.

This dynamic, known as deflation, generally doesn’t occur on a broad, sustained scale in the U.S. economy: With limited exceptions, businesses are generally loath to lower prices once they’ve increased, economists said.

But some pockets of the economy — largely, prices for physical goods from new cars to appliances, sporting goods, consumer electronics and certain apparel — have deflated over the past year, according to the consumer price index.

“We are seeing [deflation] to some extent,” said Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics.

Largely, prices have pulled back as pandemic-era contortions in supply and demand dynamics unwind, economists said. The U.S. dollar has also been relatively strong against major global currencies, making it cheaper to import goods from overseas.

But supply chains have “normalized” and deflation has “moderated to a pretty significant degree” as a result, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s.

Where there has been deflation

Prices for some categories — like furniture and bedding, men’s clothing, cosmetics and used cars and trucks — are down from October 2023, but they’ve rebounded somewhat in recent months, according to CPI data.

That said, used cars and trucks should see a resumption of deflation since “wholesale prices have fallen recently, and supply and demand continues to improve in the sector,” Bank of America economists wrote on Monday in a research note.

Energy prices and electronics

Gasoline prices are also “way down,” Zandi said.

They’ve declined more than 12% in the past year, according to CPI data. Drivers paid $3.05 a gallon, on average, at the pump as of Nov. 11, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Consumers “could get more relief there because global oil prices are soft,” Zandi said.

That softness may be in anticipation of President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed policies around China, said Zandi. Those may include tariffs of at least 60% on goods imported from China, a nation with a huge appetite for oil. If Trump’s policies were to negatively affect the Chinese economy, they’d also likely dampen China’s oil demand.

Annual inflation rate hit 2.6% in October, meeting expectations

Other energy commodities refined from oil have also seen huge price declines. Fuel oil prices, for example, are down over 20% in the past year, a trend that should contribute to lower prices elsewhere such as for airfare, economists said.

Food prices are also generally underpinned by their own unique supply-and-demand dynamics, economists said. Turkey, snacks and bacon are about 4% cheaper than they were a year ago, for example.

Lower energy prices can also take pressure off food prices, as it costs less to transport and distribute food to grocery store shelves.

Consumer electronics have also seen big price declines: Computers, video equipment and smartphones are respectively 5%, 10% and 9% cheaper than they were a year ago, according to CPI data.

But consumers might not experience those lower prices at the store: They may only exist on paper.

That’s due to how the Bureau of Labor Statistics measures inflation for certain consumer goods like electronics, economists said.

Technology continually improves, meaning consumers get more for their money. The BLS treats those quality improvements as a price decline, giving the illusion of falling prices on paper.

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House just voted yes to increase Social Security for some beneficiaries

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A bipartisan bill to change Social Security benefit rules for pensioners passed in the House of Representatives on Tuesday, with 327 lawmakers voting to support the measure.

Now, the proposal heads to the Senate, where the chamber’s version of the bill has 62 co-sponsors, “surpassing the majority needed to pass the bill on the U.S. Senate floor and send it to the president’s desk to be signed into law,” Reps. Abigail Spanberger, D-Virginia, and Garret Graves, R-Louisiana, co-leaders of the bill, said in a joint statement.

The proposal — called the Social Security Fairness Act — would repeal rules that reduce Social Security benefits for individuals who receive pension benefits from state or local governments.

It would eliminate the windfall elimination provision, or WEP, that reduces Social Security benefits for individuals who worked in jobs where they did not pay Social Security payroll taxes and now receive pension or disability benefits from those employers. About 3% of all Social Security beneficiaries — about 2.1 million people — were affected by the WEP as of December 2023, according to the Congressional Research Service.

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The bill would also eliminate the government pension offset, or GPO, which reduces Social Security benefits for spouses, widows and widowers who also receive pension checks. As of last December, about 1% of all Social Security beneficiaries — or 745,679 individuals — were affected by the GPO, according to the Congressional Research Service.

These rules, which have been in effect for decades, reduce the incomes of certain retired police officers, teachers, firefighters and other public servants, Graves said during a Tuesday speech on the House floor.

“This has been 40 years of treating people differently, discriminating against a certain set of workers,” Graves said.

“They’re not people that are overpaid; they’re not people that are underworked,” he said.

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On Tuesday, Larson voted against the Social Security Fairness Act, as well as another bill, the Equal Treatment of Public Servants Act. The latter bill would use a new formula for Social Security retirement and disability benefits for pensioners rather than eliminate the WEP. It would not change the GPO.

The bill, which was proposed by Rep. Jodey Arrington, R-Texas, failed when it was brought up for a vote.

“I could not vote for the bills on the floor tonight because they are not paid for and therefore put Americans’ hard-earned benefits at risk,” Larson said in a statement. “It would hurt most deeply the five million of our fellow Americans who receive below poverty checks, and almost half of all Social Security recipients who rely on their earned benefits for the majority of their income.”

Critics say the bill will weaken Social Security

The Social Security Fairness Act would add an estimated $196 billion to deficits over the next decade, the Congressional Budget Office has estimated. It would also move Social Security’s trust fund depletion dates closer by an estimated six months, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

“The long-term solvency of Social Security is an issue that Congress must address,” Spanberger said on the House floor on Tuesday.

“But that is a separate issue from allowing Americans who did their part, who contributed their earnings, for them to retire with dignity,” she said.

However, critics say Social Security’s funding woes should be a priority for Congress now. The program’s actuaries project the trust fund used to pay retirement benefits may be depleted in 2033, at which point 79% of benefits will be payable.

“This is not the right policy,” said Romina Boccia, director of budget and entitlement policy at the Cato Institute. “It’s what special interests were pushing, and politicians are responsive to their demands.”

Though the alternative bill proposed by Arrington would not address the GPO, it would provide a “fairer formula” for the WEP, Boccia said. However, broader changes are needed to shore up the program’s finances.

“We should reform Social Security so that it provides basic income security to the most vulnerable Americans in old age without adding to the debt or tax burden that younger workers face,” Boccia said.

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