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Where Donald Trump still looks vulnerable

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Donald trump loves to crow about his big crowds and smashing victories, even when he has to stretch the truth. His record-breaking performance in the Iowa Republican caucuses required no exaggeration. He enjoyed the largest margin of victory for any contested Republican caucus in the state’s history. Among Republicans he may be better understood as an incumbent president seeking re-election than as the insurgent outsider he performs at rallies. But Mr Trump’s dominance of the party faithful is no guarantee of success in November. What can the results of the earliest caucus reveal about his prospects for a general election still ten months away?

Those who endeavour to draw sweeping conclusions from quirky, low-turnout contests like the Iowa caucuses do so at their peril. Iowa (with its whiter-than-average population) and caucuses (which draw more engaged and older voters) tend not to reflect the American electorate. This year, only some 15% of registered Republicans in Iowa showed up to vote. Despite these caveats, the very first contest on the long road to election day can offer a glimpse into Mr Trump’s 2024 coalition. While the former president showed strength across all demographic segments, the results suggest he remains comparatively weaker among the college-educated and suburban voters who probably cost him the election in 2020.

In 2016 Mr Trump came in second in the Iowa caucuses, winning 37 of 99 counties. This year he won 98, losing only Johnson County, which is home to the University of Iowa, by one vote. Entrance polls, which survey voters before they enter their caucus site, indicate why. According to one such poll, AP VoteCast, 31% of college graduates said they would vote for Mr Trump, just barely edging out Ms Haley and Mr DeSantis, who polled at 30% each. Mr Trump’s divided primary opposition masked his weakness with this segment.

Entrance polls, like their better-known sibling the exit poll, are notoriously noisy and unreliable as samples of wider populations. But The Economist’s county-level analysis of Mr Trump’s vote share shows a similar pattern. Across the ten most educated counties in Iowa Mr Trump won 42% of the vote, compared with 66% across the ten least educated ones. And this analysis also points to a weakness among suburban voters. Mr Trump received an estimated 43% of the suburban vote in contrast to 60% of the rural vote.

Image: The Economist

Mr Trump lost in 2020 in part because of gains Democrats made among college-educated and suburban voters. According to data from Catalist, a political-data firm that helps Democrats, whereas college-educated white voters were split between Hillary Clinton and Mr Trump in 2016, in 2020 he lost those voters by nine points. His share of suburban white voters fell similarly. The Iowa caucuses suggest he may still have a problem with these groups. On January 15th Mr Trump failed to crack 40% of the vote in only four counties: Dallas, Johnson, Polk and Story, counties that are disproportionately educated and suburban (see map).

Mr Trump may overcome this vulnerability by attracting yet more non-college voters away from the Democrats. The political logic of his nativist populism is to do just that. And it seems likely that many voters like the suburban Iowans who caucused for Ms Haley or Mr DeSantis will make their way to Mr Trump’s camp come November. But despite broad support overall among Republicans, his narrower margins among some key parts of the electorate could also presage struggles in the general election. Mr Trump may be building a winning coalition for November, but its makeup is not stable.

Economics

Donald Trump has many ways to hurt Elon Musk

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THERE WAS a time, not long ago, when an important skill for journalists was translating the code in which powerful people spoke about each other. Carefully prepared speeches and other public remarks would be dissected for hints about the arguments happening in private. Among Donald Trump’s many achievements is upending this system. In his administration people seem to say exactly what they think at any given moment. Wild threats are made—to end habeas corpus; to take Greenland by force—without any follow-through. Journalists must now try to guess what is real and what is for show.

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Economics

Donald Trump has many ways to hurt Elon Musk

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THERE WAS a time, not long ago, when an important skill for journalists was translating the code in which powerful people spoke about each other. Carefully prepared speeches and other public remarks would be dissected for hints about the arguments happening in private. Among Donald Trump’s many achievements is upending this system. In his administration people seem to say exactly what they think at any given moment. Wild threats are made—to end habeas corpus; to take Greenland by force—without any follow-through. Journalists must now try to guess what is real and what is for show.

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Economics

Jobs report May 2025:

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U.S. payrolls increased 139,000 in May, more than expected; unemployment at 4.2%

Hiring decreased just slightly in May even as consumers and companies braced against tariffs and a potentially slowing economy, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls rose 139,000 for the month, above the muted Dow Jones estimate for 125,000 and a bit below the downwardly revised 147,000 that the U.S. economy added in April.

The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. A more encompassing measure that includes discouraged workers and the underemployed also was unchanged, holding at 7.8%.

Worker pay grew more than expected, with average hourly earnings up 0.4% during the month and 3.9% from a year ago, compared with respective forecasts for 0.3% and 3.7%.

“Stronger than expected jobs growth and stable unemployment underlines the resilience of the US labor market in the face of recent shocks,” said Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector fixed income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

Nearly half the job growth came from health care, which added 62,000, even higher than its average gain of 44,000 over the past year. Leisure and hospitality contributed 48,000 while social assistance added 16,000.

On the downside, government lost 22,000 jobs as efforts to cull the federal workforce by President Donald Trump and the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency began to show an impact.

Stock market futures jumped higher after the release as did Treasury yields.

Though the May numbers were better than expected, there were some underlying trouble spots.

The April count was revised lower by 30,000, while March’s total came down by 65,000 to 120,000.

There also were disparities between the establishment survey, which is used to generate the headline payrolls gain, and the household survey, which is used for the unemployment rate. The latter count, generally more volatile than the establishment survey, showed a decrease of 696,000 workers. Full-time workers declined by 623,000, while part-timers rose by 33,000.

“The May jobs report still has everyone waiting for the other shoe to drop,” said Daniel Zhao, lead economist at job rating site Glassdoor. “This report shows the job market standing tall, but as economic headwinds stack up cumulatively, it’s only a matter of time before the job market starts straining against those headwinds.”

The report comes against a teetering economic background, complicated by Trump’s tariffs and an ever-changing variable of how far he will go to try to level the global playing field for American goods.

Most indicators show that the economy is still a good distance from recession. But sentiment surveys indicate high degrees of anxiety from both consumers and business leaders as they brace for the ultimate impact of how much tariffs will slow business activity and increase inflation.

For their part, Federal Reserve officials are viewing the current landscape with caution.

The central bank holds its next policy meeting in less than two weeks, with markets largely expecting the Fed to stay on hold regarding interest rates. In recent speeches, policymakers have indicated greater concern with the potential for tariff-induced inflation.

“With the Fed laser-focused on managing the risks to the inflation side of its mandate, today’s stronger than expected jobs report will do little to alter its patient approach,” said Rosner, the Goldman Sachs strategist.

Friday also marks the final day before Fed officials head into their quiet period before the meeting, when they do not issue policy remarks.

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