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Where new jobs were in 2024, and potential growth areas in a second Trump term

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The labor market may be poised for dislocation with President-elect Donald Trump set to take office for the second time later this month.

For the past two years, health care has dominated all other industries in terms of growth, aided partly by Covid-related spending. The health care and social assistance sectors added 902,000 jobs in 2024, according to Friday’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, almost as many as the 966,000 jobs they created in 2023.

The government sector came in a distant second, creating some 440,000 jobs in 2024, down from 709,000 in 2023.

Part of the growth in health care jobs is also tied to rising population and a burgeoning number of retirees, said Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute.

“Healthcare and social insurance has been rising gangbusters for years now,” Gould told CNBC in a Friday interview. “Some of that is an aging population, some of it is just population growth.”

Looming change

But that could change in a second Trump administration, especially if it brings mass deportations and a renewed debate over foreign labor visas. Immigrants accounted for nearly 18% of health care workers in 2021, according to the Migration Policy Institute.

“There’s already such high demand there and if we have mass deportations, that’s certainly going to come at a cost for the services that can be provided in those sectors,” Gould said. “You could then have shortages that could lead to more inflation because you’re going to have employers trying to beat out each other to try to get the fewer workers that there might be, and that could cause problems in the macroeconomy.”

The government sector has been the second-fastest growing sector the past two years. Much of that growth has happened at the state level, Gould said. The state-level government workforce grew at a faster pace than local last year, while the federal government employee base rose at roughly the national rate.

But, as with health care, the government sector could see workforce reductions under President-elect Trump’s new Department of Government Efficiency, a strictly advisory body headed by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy that aims to slash government spending.

“If you get rid of that kind of a policy at the federal level, you’re going to lose lots of highly productive workers, and so that could be a detriment to the services that they provide and obviously to the overall economy,” Gould said. “Unemployment can go up … So many things can happen if you damage that vital federal workforce, and if there’s less funding at the same local level that can be problematic as well.”

Manufacturing growth — maybe

Conversely, a Trump administration may prove positive for sectors such as manufacturing and mining and logging, the two groups that saw the weakest job creation in 2024. Trump’s proposed tariffs could boost growth in these industries, but Gould said it’s impossible to predict by how much.

With concerns around sticky inflation looming into the new year, Gould said that the focus on the labor economy moving forward should be the share of corporate sector income that goes to workers versus profits, which she said is still “very, very low.”

“When workers have money in their pockets and they spend it on goods and services, that drives the production of goods and the provision of services,” she said. “Even though we’ve seen productivity growth and we’ve had inflation come down, there is just a lot more room for wages to rise without putting upward pressure on inflation.”

Economics

China targets U.S. services and other areas after decrying ‘meaningless’ tariff hikes on goods

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Dilara Irem Sancar | Anadolu | Getty Images

China last week announced it was done retaliating against U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, saying any further increases by the U.S. would be a “joke,” and Beijing would “ignore” them.

Instead of continuing to focus on tariffing goods, however, China has chosen to resort to other measures, including steps targeting the American services sector.

Trump has jacked up U.S. levies on select goods from China by up to 245% after several rounds of tit-for-tat measures with Beijing in recent weeks. Before calling it a “meaningless numbers game,” China last week imposed additional duties on imports from the U.S. of up to 125%.

While the Trump administration has largely focused on pressing ahead on his tariff plans, Beijing has rolled out a series of non-tariff restrictive measures including widening export controls of rare-earth minerals and opening antitrust probes into American companies, such as pharmaceutical giant DuPont and IT major Google.

Before the latest escalation, in February Beijing had put dozens of U.S. businesses on a so-called “unreliable entity” list, which would restrict or ban firms from trading with or investing in China. American firms such as PVH, the parent company of Tommy Hilfiger, and Illumina, a gene-sequencing equipment provider, were among those added to the list.

Its tightening of exports of critical mineral elements will require Chinese companies to secure special licenses for exporting these resources, effectively restricting U.S. access to the key minerals needed for semiconductors, missile-defense systems and solar cells.

In its latest move on Tuesday, Beijing went after Boeing — America’s largest exporter — by ordering Chinese airlines not to take any further deliveries for its jets and requested carriers to halt any purchases of aircraft-related equipment and parts from U.S. companies, according to Bloomberg.

Having deliveries to China cut off will add to the cash-strapped plane maker’s troubles, as it struggles with a lingering quality-control crisis.

In another sign of growing hostilities, Chinese police issued notices for apprehending three people they claimed to have engaged in cyberattacks against China on behalf of the U.S. National Security Agency.

Chinese state media, which published the notice, urged domestic users and companies to avoid using American technology and replace them with domestic alternatives.

“Beijing is clearly signaling to Washington that two can play in this retaliation game and that it has many levers to pull, all creating different levels of pain for U.S. companies,” said Wendy Cutler, vice president at Asia Society Policy Institute.

“With high tariffs and other restrictions in place, the decoupling of the two economies is at full steam,” Cutler said.

Targeting trade in services

China is seen by some as seeking to broaden the trade war to encompass services trade — which covers travel, legal, consulting and financial services — where the U.S. has been running a significant surplus with China for years.

China Beige Book CEO: U.S. needs to articulate what they want from China

Earlier this month, a social media account affiliated with Chinese state media Xinhua News Agency, suggested Beijing could impose curbs on U.S. legal consultancy firms and consider a probe into U.S. companies’ China operations for the huge “monopoly benefits” they have gained from intellectual-property rights.

China’s imports of U.S. services surged more than 10-fold to $55 billion in 2024 over the past two decades, according to Nomura estimates, driving U.S. services trade surplus with China to $32 billion last year.

Last week, China said it would reduce imports of U.S. films and warned its citizens against traveling or studying in the U.S., in a sign of Beijing’s intent to put pressure on the U.S. entertainment, tourism and education sectors.

“These measures target high-visibility sectors — aviation, media, and education — that resonate politically in the U.S.,” said Jing Qian, managing director at Center for China Analysis.

While they might be low on actual dollar impact given the smaller scale of these sectors, “reputational effects — such as fewer Chinese students or more cautious Chinese employees — could ripple through academia and the tech talent ecosystem,” he added.

Nomura estimates $24 billion could be at stake if Beijing significantly step up restrictions on travel to the U.S.

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Travel dominated U.S. services exports to China, reflecting expenditure by millions of Chinese tourists in the U.S., according to Nomura. Within travel, education-related spending leads at 71%, it estimates, mostly coming from tuition and living expenses for the more than 270,000 Chinese students studying in the U.S.

Entertainment exports, encompassing films, music and television programs, accounted for just 6% of U.S. exports within this sector, the investment firm said, noting that Beijing’s latest move on film imports “carries more symbolic heft than economic bite.”

“We could see deeper decoupling — not only in supply chains, but in people-to-people ties, knowledge exchange, and regulatory frameworks. This may signal a shift from transactional tension to systemic divergence,” said Qian.

Can Beijing get more aggressive?

Analysts largely expect Beijing to continue deploying its arsenal of non-tariff policy tools in an effort to raise its leverage ahead of any potential negotiation with the Trump administration.

“From the Chinese government’s perspective, the U.S. companies’ operations in China are the biggest remaining target for inflicting pain on the U.S .side,” said Gabriel Wildau, managing director at risk advisory firm Teneo.

Apple, Tesla, pharmaceutical and medical device companies are among the businesses that could be targeted as Beijing presses ahead with non-tariff measures, including sanction, regulatory harassment and export controls, Wildau added.

Shoppers and staff are seen inside the Apple Store, with its sleek modern interior design and prominent Apple logo, in Chongqing, China, on Sept. 10, 2024.

Cheng Xin | Getty Images

While a deal may allow both sides to unwind some of the retaliatory measures, hopes for near-term talks between the two leaders are fading fast.

Chinese officials have repeatedly condemned the “unilateral tariffs” imposed by Trump as “bullying” and vowed to “fight to the end.” Still, Beijing has left the door open for negotiations but they must be on “an equal footing.”

On Tuesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump is open to making a deal with China but Beijing needs to make the first move.

“In the end, only when a country experiences sufficient self-inflicted harm might it consider softening its stance and truly returning to the negotiation table,” said Jianwei Xu, economist at Natixis.

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Economics

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