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Why can’t politicians just admit when they’re wrong?

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The debate this week was short on exposition of policy but so rich in moments revelatory of the styles and characters of the two candidates that I struggled in the wee hours on Wednesday, while writing this week’s Lexington column, with what to leave out. One moment I’ve been thinking about since was when Vice-President Kamala Harris, in a litany about how Donald Trump has “attempted to use race to divide the American people”, referred to how he treated the so-called Central Park Five. 

Do you recall the case? In 1989, after a white woman out jogging in Central Park was raped and brutally beaten, five teenaged black and Latino boys, arrested and questioned for hours by police, confessed. The matter drew national attention. 

Almost two weeks after the attack, Mr Trump took out full-page advertisements in the four major New York newspapers calling for the reinstatement of the death penalty. Addressing the mayor, Ed Koch, who had urged New Yorkers not to carry “hate and rancour” in their hearts, Mr Trump wrote, “I want to hate these murderers and I always will. I am not looking to psychoanalyse or understand them, I am looking to punish them.” The Central Park Five served years in prison before being exonerated in 2002 by the confession, supported by DNA evidence, of a convicted rapist and murderer. 

After Ms Harris raised the incident, Mr Trump gave one of his jumbled rebuttals. The gist viewers might have taken away was that, as he put it, Ms Harris had to “stretch back years, 40, 50 years ago, because there’s nothing now.” Here’s why the story remains relevant: Mr Trump has never recanted, let alone apologised, and he has continued to imply the five men may have been responsible for the attack. He did so once again Tuesday night.“They pled guilty. And I said, well, if they pled guilty they badly hurt a person, killed a person ultimately,” he said. “Then they pled we’re not guilty.” (The victim is alive).

Why can’t Mr Trump acknowledge that the Central Park Five were innocent? Many of the convicted January 6th rioters also pleaded guilty, and though they have not been exonerated Mr Trump calls them patriots and hostages. He has said he himself is the victim of prosecutorial overreach and claimed “a lot of people said that that’s why the black people like me because they have been hurt so badly and discriminated against.” He seems unwilling to return such empathy. 

The Harris campaign brought a member of the Central Park Five—Yusef Salaam, now a member of the New York City council—to the debate. In the “spin room” afterwards, he called Mr Trump from a scrum of reporters, identifying himself as a member of the “exonerated five”. “That’s very good,” Mr Trump said, grinning, though possibly not realising whom he was dealing with. “You’re on my side!” Mr Salaam responded, “No, no, I’m not on your side.”

I think this is a particularly egregious case of a politician refusing to admit error because it does exacerbate racial division, and it falsely spreads suspicion of criminality. Mr Trump, of course, is extreme in his refusal to admit any shortcoming, such as losing an election, or even any facts that don’t fit his view of reality, as when he insisted during the debate that the FBI’s crime numbers are fraudulent because they do not show the crime wave he insists is engulfing America. But I should note that Ms Harris also seems resistant to simply saying she got something wrong, or even evolved in her thinking. Why can’t she explain why she changed her mind about fracking? I think voters would actually have more confidence in a politician who would forthrightly say that, confronted with new facts or arguments or experience, their view changed. A society in which people can’t own up to their mistakes—and forgive one another for them—seems doomed to make many more of them than it otherwise would. 

Thank you for the wonderful responses to my request for great political ads. I now suspect Australia’s political culture is considerably more creative than America’s, given the suggestions from down under, some of which I had to use Google to decode (eg, “Point Percy at the Parliament”, suggested by Saul Eslake). Roger Karess wrote from Paris to recall a bumper sticker from the Nixon era: “The majority isn’t silent, the government is deaf!” Cheryl Rivers of Stockbridge, Vermont, nominated a more recent example, Rafael Warnock’s puppy ad (not actually his beagle, I discovered while reporting a Lexington about his campaign). I was delighted to be reminded by Thellen Levy of a fictional ad, a sign described in the Raymond Chandler novel “The Lady in the Lake”: “Keep Jim Patton Constable. He is too old to go to work.” ■

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Donald Trump sacks America’s top military brass

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THE FIRST shot against America’s senior military leaders was fired within hours of Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20th: General Mark Milley’s portrait was removed from the wall on the E-ring, where it had hung with paintings of other former chairmen of the joint chiefs of staff. A day later the commandant of the coast guard, Admiral Linda Fagan, was thrown overboard. On February 21st it was the most senior serving officer, General Charles “CQ” Brown, a former F-16 pilot, who was ejected from the Pentagon. At least he was spared a Trumpian farewell insult. “He is a fine gentleman and an outstanding leader,” Mr Trump declared.

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Checks and Balance newsletter: The journalist’s dilemma of covering Trump

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Checks and Balance newsletter: The journalist’s dilemma of covering Trump

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Germany’s election will usher in new leadership — but might not change its economy

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Production at the VW plant in Emden.

Sina Schuldt | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

The struggling German economy has been a major talking point among critics of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’ government during the latest election campaign — but analysts warn a new leadership might not turn these tides.

As voters prepare to head to the polls, it is now all but certain that Germany will soon have a new chancellor. The Christian Democratic Union’s Friedrich Merz is the firm favorite.

Merz has not shied away from blasting Scholz’s economic policies and from linking them to the lackluster state of Europe’s largest economy. He argues that a government under his leadership would give the economy the boost it needs.

Experts speaking to CNBC were less sure.

“There is a high risk that Germany will get a refurbished economic model after the elections, but not a brand new model that makes the competition jealous,” Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, told CNBC.

The CDU/CSU economic agenda

The CDU, which on a federal level ties up with regional sister party the Christian Social Union, is running on a “typical economic conservative program,” Brzeski said.

It includes income and corporate tax cuts, fewer subsidies and less bureaucracy, changes to social benefits, deregulation, support for innovation, start-ups and artificial intelligence and boosting investment among other policies, according to CDU/CSU campaigners.

“The weak parts of the positions are that the CDU/CSU is not very precise on how it wants to increase investments in infrastructure, digitalization and education. The intention is there, but the details are not,” Brzeski said, noting that the union appears to be aiming to revive Germany’s economic model without fully overhauling it.

“It is still a reform program which pretends that change can happen without pain,” he said.

Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, head of forecasting at research institute DIW Berlin, noted that the CDU is also looking to reach gross domestic product growth of around 2% again through its fiscal and economic program called “Agenda 2030.”

But reaching such levels of economic expansion in Germany “seems unrealistic,” not just temporarily, but also in the long run, she told CNBC.

Germany’s GDP declined in both 2023 and 2024. Recent quarterly growth readings have also been teetering on the verge of a technical recession, which has so far been narrowly avoided. The German economy shrank by 0.2% in the fourth quarter, compared with the previous three-month stretch, according to the latest reading.

Europe’s largest economy faces pressure in key industries like the auto sector, issues with infrastructure like the country’s rail network and a housebuilding crisis.

Dany-Knedlik also flagged the so-called debt brake, a long-standing fiscal rule that is enshrined in Germany’s constitution, which limits the size of the structural budget deficit and how much debt the government can take on.

Whether or not the clause should be overhauled has been a big part of the fiscal debate ahead of the election. While the CDU ideally does not want to change the debt brake, Merz has said that he may be open to some reform.

“To increase growth prospects substantially without increasing debt also seems rather unlikely,” DIW’s Dany-Knedlik said, adding that, if public investments were to rise within the limits of the debt brake, significant tax increases would be unavoidable.

“Taking into account that a 2 Percent growth target is to be reached within a 4 year legislation period, the Agenda 2030 in combination with conservatives attitude towards the debt break to me reads more of a wish list than a straight forward economic growth program,” she said.

Change in German government will deliver economic success, says CEO of German employers association

Franziska Palmas, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics, sees some benefits to the plans of the CDU-CSU union, saying they would likely “be positive” for the economy, but warning that the resulting boost would be small.

“Tax cuts would support consumer spending and private investment, but weak sentiment means consumers may save a significant share of their additional after-tax income and firms may be reluctant to invest,” she told CNBC.  

Palmas nevertheless pointed out that not everyone would come away a winner from the new policies. Income tax cuts would benefit middle- and higher-income households more than those with a lower income, who would also be affected by potential reductions of social benefits.

Coalition talks ahead

Following the Sunday election, the CDU/CSU will almost certainly be left to find a coalition partner to form a majority government, with the Social Democratic Party or the Green party emerging as the likeliest candidates.

The parties will need to broker a coalition agreement outlining their joint goals, including on the economy — which could prove to be a difficult undertaking, Capital Economics’ Palmas said.

“The CDU and the SPD and Greens have significantly different economic policy positions,” she said, pointing to discrepancies over taxes and regulation. While the CDU/CSU want to reduce both items, the SPD and Greens seek to raise taxes and oppose deregulation in at least some areas, Palmas explained.

The group is nevertheless likely to hold the power in any potential negotiations as it will likely have their choice between partnering with the SPD or Greens.

“Accordingly, we suspect that the coalition agreement will include most of the CDU’s main economic proposals,” she said.

Germany is 'lacking ambition,' investor says

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