Personal Finance

Why stocks drop in September — and many investors shouldn’t care

Published

2 months ago

September 13, 2024

Business Finance News

Traders on the New York Stock Exchange floor on Sept. 9, 2024.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images News | Getty Images

September historically hasn’t been kind to stock investors.

Since 1926, U.S. large-cap stocks have lost an average 0.9% in September, according to data from Morningstar Direct.

September is the only month during that nearly century-long period in which investors experienced an average loss, according to Morningstar. They saw a profit in all other months.

For example, February saw a positive 0.4% return, on average. While that performance is the second-lowest among the 12 months, is still eclipses September’s by 1.3 percentage points. July reigns supreme with an average return of almost 2%.

The monthly weakness also holds true when looking just at more recent periods.

For example, the S&P 500 stock index has lost an average 1.7% in September since 2000 — the worst monthly performance by more than a percentage point, according to FactSet.

Historically, the last two weeks of September are generally the weakest part of the month, said Abby Yoder, U.S. equity strategist at J.P Morgan Private Bank.

“Starting next week is when it would [tend to get] get a little bit more negative, in terms of seasonality,” Yoder said.

Trying to time the market is a losing bet

Alistair Berg | Digitalvision | Getty Images

Investors holding their money in stocks for the long-term shouldn’t bail, Yoder said.

Trying to time the market is almost always a losing bet, according to financial experts. That’s because it’s impossible to know when good and bad days will occur.

For example, the 10 best trading days by percentage gain for the S&P 500 over the past three decades all occurred during recessions, according to a Wells Fargo analysis published earlier this year.

Big returns will come from small-caps while the Fed cuts rates, says Goldman's Ashish Shah

Plus, average large-cap U.S. stock returns were positive in September for half the years since 1926, according to Morningstar. Put another way: They were only negative half of the time.

As an illustration, investors who sold out of the market in September 2010 would have foregone a 9% return that month — the best monthly performer that year, according to Morningstar.

“It’s all just random,” said Edward McQuarrie, a professor emeritus at Santa Clara University who studies historical investment returns. “Stocks are volatile.”

Don’t put faith in market maxims

Similarly, investors shouldn’t necessarily accept market maxims as truisms, experts said.

For example, the popular saying “sell in May and go away” would have investors sell out of stocks in May and buy back in November. The thinking: November to April is the best rolling six-month period for stocks.

It’s all just random.

Edward McQuarrie

professor emeritus at Santa Clara University

“History shows this trading theory has flaws,” wrote Fidelity Investments in April. “More often than not, stocks tend to record gains throughout the year, on average. Thus, selling in May generally doesn’t make a lot of sense.”

Since 2000, the S&P 500 saw gains of 1.1% from May to October, on average, over the six-month period, according to FactSet. The stock index gained 4.8% from November to April.

Historical reason for September weakness

There is a historical reason why stocks often fared poorly in September prior to the early 1900s, McQuarrie said.

It ties into 19^th century agriculture, banking practices and the scarcity of money, he said.

At the time, New York City had achieved dominance as a powerful banking hub, especially after the Civil War. Deposits flowed to New York from the rest of the country during the year as farmers planted their crops and farmer purchases accumulated in local banks, which couldn’t put the funds to good use locally, McQuarrie said.

New York banks would lend funds to stock speculators to earn a return on those deposits. In the early fall, country banks drew down balances in New York to pay farmers for their crops. Speculators had to sell their stock as New York banks redeemed the loans, leading stock prices to fall, McQuarrie said.

“The banking system was very different,” he said. “It was systematic, almost annual and money always got tight in September.”

The cycle ended in the early 20^th century with the creation of the Federal Reserve, the U.S. central bank, McQuarrie said.

‘It gets in the psyche’

Golero | E+ | Getty Images

September’s losing streak is somewhat more baffling in modern times, experts said.

Investor psychology is perhaps the most significant factor, they said.

“I think there’s an element of these narratives feeding on themselves,” said Yoder of J.P Morgan. “It’s the same concept as a recession narrative begetting a recession. It gets in the psyche.”

There are likely other contributing elements, she said.

For example, mutual funds generally sell stock to lock in profits and losses for tax purposes — so-called “tax loss harvesting” — near the end of the fiscal year, typically around Oct. 31. Funds often start giving capital-gains tax estimates to investors in October.

Mutual funds seem to be “pulling forward” those tax-oriented stock sales into September more often, Yoder said.

I think there’s an element of these narratives feeding on themselves.

Abby Yoder

U.S. equity strategist at J.P Morgan Private Bank

Investor uncertainty around the outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November and next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, during which officials are expected to cut interest rates for the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic began, may exacerbate weakness this September, Yoder said.

“Markets don’t like uncertainty,” she said.

But ultimately, “I don’t think anybody has a good explanation for why the pattern continues, other than the psychological one,” McQuarrie said.

Personal Finance

Why Trump’s tax plans could be ‘complicated’ in 2025, policy experts say

Published

19 minutes ago

November 19, 2024

Business Finance News

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with House Republicans at the Hyatt Regency hotel in Washington, D.C., on Nov. 13, 2024.

Allison Robbert | Via Reuters

Congressional lawmakers will soon debate expiring tax breaks and new promises from President-elect Donald Trump.

Agreeing on cuts and spending, however, could be a challenge.

With a majority in the House of Representatives and Senate, Republican lawmakers can pass sweeping tax legislation through “reconciliation,” which bypasses the Senate filibuster. Republicans could begin the budget reconciliation process during Trump’s first 100 days in office.

But choosing priorities could be difficult, particularly amid the federal budget deficit, policy experts said Tuesday at a Brookings Institution event in Washington.

Legislators will be “representing their districts, not their party,” Howard Gleckman, a senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, said Tuesday in a panel discussion at the Brookings event.

“This is a lot more complicated than just the reds against the blues,” he said.

‘Political divisions’ could be a barrier

With a slim majority in Congress, Republican lawmakers will soon negotiate with several blocks within their party. Some of these groups have competing priorities.

Enacted by Trump in 2017, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, or TCJA, is a key priority for the next administration.

Without action from Congress, trillions of tax breaks from the TCJA will expire after 2025. These include lower tax brackets, higher standard deductions, a more generous child tax credit, bigger estate and gift tax exemption, and a 20% tax break for pass-through businesses, among other provisions.

The more things you try to bring in, the more potential political divisions we have to navigate.

Molly Reynolds

senior fellow in Governance Studies at Brookings Institution

Tax bill could take longer than expected

Since budget reconciliation involves multiple steps, policy experts say the Republican tax bill could take months.

Plus, Congress has until Dec. 20 to fund the government and avoid a shutdown. A stopgap bill could push the deadline to January or March, which could take time from Trump’s tax priorities.

“The idea that they’re going to do this in 100 days, I think, is foolish,” Gleckman said. “My over-under is Dec. 31, 2025, and that might be optimistic.”

However, the bill could get through by Oct. 1, 2025, which closes the federal government’s fiscal year, other policy experts say.

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Personal Finance

Why it helps to file early

Published

2 hours ago

November 19, 2024

Business Finance News

We are overly reliant on student loans to fund higher education, says NACAC CEO Angel Perez

This week, the new Free Application for Federal Student Aid expanded its “phased rollout” so all students can now apply for aid for the upcoming academic year.

Up until Monday, the 2025-26 FAFSA was only available to limited groups of students in a series of beta tests that began on Oct. 1.

Now, the form is open to all and the Department of Education has said it will be out of testing entirely by Nov. 22 — which puts the official launch ahead of schedule.

Typically, all students have access to the coming academic year’s form in October, but last year’s new simplified form wasn’t available until late December after a monthslong delay.

This year, the plan was to be available to all students and contributors on or before Dec. 1.

Students who submit a form during this final “expanded beta” phase before Nov. 22 will not need to submit a subsequent 2025–26 FAFSA form, the education department said.

There are still some issues with the new form, some of which also plagued last year’s college aid application cycle, but they all have workarounds, according to higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

Altogether, this year’s rollout is “much better than last year,” he said.

Last year, complications with the new form resulted in some students not applying at all. Ultimately, that meant fewer students went on to college.

Why it’s important to file the FAFSA early

“Students should take full advantage of the early rollout and submit their FAFSA as soon as possible,” said Shaan Patel, the CEO and founder of Prep Expert, which provides Scholastic Aptitude Test and American College Test preparation courses.

The earlier families fill out the form, the better their chances are of receiving aid, since some financial aid is awarded on a first-come, first-served basis, or from programs with limited funds.

“The earlier you apply, the better your chances of securing more aid that doesn’t need to be repaid,” Patel said.

“Submitting early also means you’ll receive your financial aid award letters sooner,” he said. “This gives you ample time to compare offers from different schools and make an informed decision without feeling rushed. Finally, knowing your child’s financial aid status earlier reduces stress and allows your family to focus on other important aspects of college preparation.”

For many students, financial aid is key.

Higher education already costs more than most families can afford, and college costs are still rising. Tuition and fees plus room and board for a four-year private college averaged $58,600 in the 2024-25 school year, up from $56,390 a year earlier. At four-year, in-state public colleges, it was $24,920, up from $24,080, the College Board found.

The FAFSA serves as the gateway to all federal aid money, including federal student loans, work-study and especially grants — which have become the most crucial kind of assistance because they typically do not need to be repaid.

Submitting a FAFSA is also one of the best predictors of whether a high school senior will go on to college, according to the National College Attainment Network. Seniors who complete the FAFSA are 84% more likely to enroll in college directly after high school, according to an NCAN study of 2013 data.

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Personal Finance

89% of Americans do not consider themselves wealthy, Fidelity finds

Published

5 hours ago

November 19, 2024

Business Finance News

Why so many young adults are still living with their parents

Inflation is cooling and wages are rising. Yet, few Americans — including millionaires — feel confident about their financial standing.

Across all income and asset levels, 89% of Americans said they do not consider themselves wealthy, according to Fidelity Investments’ State of Wealth Mobility study. Fidelity polled 1,900 adults in August.

“Only one-tenth of Americans consider themselves wealthy today — despite many having considerable wealth,” said Rich Compson, head of wealth solutions at Fidelity Investments.

For most Americans, the definition of what it means to be wealthy is relatively modest, with 71% saying being wealthy is simply the ability to not have to live paycheck to paycheck.

Roughly 57% said wealth also entails traveling and taking vacations, while 56% said it’s being able to pass down money to the next generation.

Nearly half — 49% — said feeling wealthy meant the ability to own a home, Fidelity found.

For high-net worth individuals, or those with $1 million or more in savings and investable assets not including real estate or retirement funds, more households associated wealth with traveling and fewer said a major criterion for feeling wealthy was not living paycheck to paycheck.

Surprisingly, the same share — 49% — said being wealthy meant owning a home.

Obstacles to feeling wealthy

Housing affordability has become a major hurdle.

High home prices and higher mortgage rates along with low inventory have put ownership just out of reach for many households.

One “silver lining” is that affordability has improved somewhat since October 2023, when mortgage rates were near 8%, according to a new analysis by Freddie Mac.

Jose Luis Pelaez Inc | Digitalvision | Getty Images

Although vacationing has also gotten more expensive, Americans are still determined to travel.

Travel spending among households continues to outpace its pre-pandemic levels, some reports show.

However, concerns about high prices are playing a larger role in keeping some would-be vacationers home. Those that are travelling have had to adjust their budgets accordingly, spending roughly 10% more compared to 2023, according to another study by Deloitte.

Rising debt is another threat to wealth

At the same time, rising consumer debt has weighed on household balance sheets. Nearly half, 44%, of Americans said credit card debt is the biggest threat to their ability to build wealth, according to a separate report by Edelman Financial Engines.

Americans now owe a record $1.17 trillion on their credit cards, and the average balance per consumer stands at $6,329, up 4.8% year over year, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and TransUnion, respectively.

“High interest rate credit card debt, more than other sorts of debt, is a savings killer, because when you have it, you have to feed the beast. You can’t save, you can’t invest,” Jean Chatzky, personal finance expert and CEO of HerMoney.com, told CNBC in September.

“That stands in the way of people building actual wealth and therefore feeling wealthier,” she said.

What it would take to feel rich

Most people — roughly 65% of those polled — said they would need $1 million in the bank to consider themselves wealthy, although 28% said it would take at least $2 million and 19% put the bar at $5 million or more, Edelman Financial Engines found.

Among current millionaires, 68% said they would need at least $3 million and 40% said feeling wealthy would require $5 million of more.

Edelman Financial Engines polled more than 3,000 adults over age 30 from June 12 to July 3, including 1,500 affluent Americans with household assets between $500,000 and $3 million.

When it comes to their salary, 58% of all of those surveyed said they would need to earn $100,000 on average to not worry about everyday living expenses, and a quarter said they would need to earn more than $200,000 to feel financially secure.

In most cases, feeling financially secure is not based on how much you earn, but rather a commitment to save more than you spend, maintain a well-diversified portfolio and work with a financial advisor, experts often say.

“Having confidence in being able to invest strategically is what often separates those who feel they are wealthy from those who don’t,” said Fidelity’s Compson. “Improved confidence starts with education and planning.”

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