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WTO forecasts rebound in global trade but keeps geopolitical risks in focus

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Container ships from international trunk lines, including those from Europe, Africa, India, Pakistan, and Southeast Asia, are loading and unloading containers at the container terminal of the Qianwan Port Area of Qingdao Port in Qingdao, China, on April 4, 2024. 

Nurphoto | Getty Images

The World Trade Organization on Wednesday said that it expects global trade to rebound gradually this year, before rising further in 2025, as the impacts of higher inflation fall into the rearview mirror.

In its latest “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics” report, the WTO forecast that total global trade volumes will increase by 2.6% in 2024, and by a further 3.3% in 2025. It follows a larger-than-expected 1.2% decline in 2023, as inflationary pressures and higher interest rates weighed on international trade.

“The reason for this pickup is basically the normalization of inflation and also the normalization of monetary policy, which has been a drag on trade in 2023,” the WTO’s chief economist Ralph Ossa told CNBC’s Silvia Amaro.

The trade rebound is expected to be “broad-based,” including across Europe, which experienced some of the deepest falls in trade volumes last year as a result of geopolitical tensions and the energy crisis caused by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

“Europe was really weighing on international trade in 2023, and we don’t see that being the case anymore,” Ossa said.

Geopolitical risks remain

Overall, world trade has been “remarkably resilient” over recent years, rising above its pre-Covid-19 pandemic peak in late 2023, the WTO report concluded. However, the organization warned that geopolitical tensions could still pose a risk to its outlook.

In particular, the ongoing war between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas could cause major trade disruptions, should it spill over into energy markets, Ossa said.

The economist also pointed to signs of global trade “fragmentation” along geopolitical lines.

The WTO report divided the global economy into two “hypothetical geopolitical blocks” based on U.N. voting patterns and found that trade growth between the blocks was slower than within them. The U.S. and U.K. for instance, have typically taken similar positions in recent U.N. votes on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while China and South Africa, on the other hand, have taken opposite views.

That fragmentation was especially notable between the world’s two largest economies, the U.S. and China.

“We’ve seen that trade growth between the United States and China was 30% slower than trade growth between these countries and other countries,” Ossa said, referring to the period since 2018, when trade tensions initially arose.

“That doesn’t mean that they are not still trading a lot, but their trade shares are increasingly moving away from these relationships.”

Trade tensions between the U.S. and China resurfaced this week, when U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she would not rule out possible tariffs on Beijing, if it is found to be engaging in unfair trade practices. The calls for a tougher stance on China were echoed on Tuesday by European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen.

The spat centers on claims that China is “dumping” subsidized green technology goods into international markets, effectively undercutting domestic producers. Beijing denies the claims.

The WTO report does not detail China-specific trade forecasts, however it expects a 3.4% aggregate increase in Asia exports in both 2024 and 2025.

“That doesn’t mean that, in particular sectors, we couldn’t see or we don’t expect to see any surges,” Ossa said.

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Why stricter voting laws no longer help Republicans

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“The Republicans should pray for rain”—the title of a paper published by a trio of political scientists in 2007—has been an axiom of American elections for years. The logic was straightforward: each inch of election-day showers, the study found, dampened turnout by 1%. Lower turnout gave Republicans an edge because the party’s affluent electorate had the resources to vote even when it was inconvenient. Their opponents, less so.

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Inflation rate slipped to 2.1% in April, lower than expected, Fed’s preferred gauge shows

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Inflation rate slipped to 2.1% in April, lower than expected, Fed’s preferred gauge shows

Inflation barely budged in April as tariffs President Donald Trump implemented in the early part of the month had yet to show up in consumer prices, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s key inflation measure, increased just 0.1% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.1%. The monthly reading was in line with the Dow Jones consensus forecast while the annual level was 0.1 percentage point lower.

Excluding food and energy, the core reading that tends to get even greater focus from Fed policymakers showed readings of 0.1% and 2.5%, against respective estimates of 0.1% and 2.6%.

Consumer spending, though, slowed sharply for the month, posting just a 0.2% increase, in line with the consensus but slower than the 0.7% rate in March. A more cautious consumer mood also was reflected in the personal savings rate, which jumped to 4.9%, up from 0.6 percentage point in March to the highest level in nearly a year.

Personal income surged 0.8%, a slight increase from the prior month but well ahead of the forecast for 0.3%.

Markets showed little reaction to the news, with stock futures continuing to point lower and Treasury yields mixed.

People shop at a grocery store in Brooklyn on May 13, 2025 in New York City.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

Trump has been pushing the Fed to lower its key interest rate as inflation has continued to gravitate back to the central bank’s 2% target. However, policymakers have been hesitant to move as they await the longer-term impacts of the president’s trade policy.

On Thursday, Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell held their first face-to-face meeting since the president started his second term. However, a Fed statement indicated the future path of monetary policy was not discussed and stressed that decisions would be made free of political considerations.

Trump slapped across-the-board 10% duties on all U.S. imports, part of an effort to even out a trading landscape in which the U.S. ran a record $140.5 billion deficit in March. In addition to the general tariffs, Trump launched selective reciprocal tariffs much higher than the 10% general charge.

Since then, though, Trump has backed off the more severe tariffs in favor of a 90-day negotiating period with the affected countries. Earlier this week, an international court struck down the tariffs, saying Trump exceeded his authority and didn’t prove that national security was threatened by the trade issues.

Then in the latest installment of the drama, an appeals court allowed a White House effort for a temporary stay of the order from the U.S. Court of International Trade.

Economists worry that tariffs could spark another round of inflation, though the historical record shows that their impact is often minimal.

At their policy meeting earlier this month, Fed officials also expressed worry about potential tariff inflation, particularly at a time when concerns are rising about the labor market. Higher prices and slower economic growth can yield stagflation, a phenomenon the U.S. hasn’t seen since the early 1980s.

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