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Your Social Security COLA increase could be bigger than expected next year

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Social Security recipients are on track to receive a cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) next year that is bigger than previously expected after inflation accelerated for the third month in a row.

The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan group that focuses on issues relating to older Americans, estimated the adjustment could be about 3%, based on March inflation data, which showed the consumer price index climbed 0.4% from the previous month and is up 3.5% from the same time last year. 

Both figures are higher than expected, underscoring the challenge of taming high inflation.  

The annual Social Security change is calculated based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or the CPI-W, from July, August and September. The CPI-W also posted a 3.5% increase in March.

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Should Social Security beneficiaries see a 3% increase in their monthly checks next year, it would mark a steep decline from both 2023, when recipients saw an 8.7% bump and from 2024, when benefits rose by 3.2%. 

A Social Security card

In this photo illustration, a Social Security card sits alongside checks from the U.S. Treasury on Oct. 14, 2021, in Washington, D.C.  (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images / Getty Images)

However, it remains higher than the 2.6% average increase recorded over the past two decades.

An increase of that magnitude would raise the average retiree benefit of $1,907 by about $57.21 per month. 

Even with last year’s cost-of-living increase, many retirees say they are struggling to keep up with high inflation, according to Mary Johnson, a research analyst at the Senior Citizens League who conducted the analysis.

This year’s 3.2% benefit increase exceeded the actual rate of inflation in March and matched it in February. 

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“That means older consumers are losing buying power,” Johnson said.

The Social Security Administration will release the final adjustment percentage in mid-October.

US grocery shoppers

Shoppers are seen in a Kroger supermarket on Oct. 14, 2022, in Atlanta, Georgia. ((Photo by Elijah Nouvelage / AFP) (Photo by ELIJAH NOUVELAGE/AFP via Getty Images) / Getty Images)

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Inflation has created severe financial pressures for most U.S. households, which are forced to pay more for everyday necessities like food and rent. The burden is disproportionately borne by low-income Americans, whose already-stretched paychecks are heavily impacted by price fluctuations. 

The typical U.S. household needed to pay $227 more a month in March to purchase the same goods and services it did one year ago because of still-high inflation, according to calculations from Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi shared with FOX Business.

Americans are paying on average $784 more each month compared with the same time two years ago and $1,069 more compared with three years ago, before the inflation crisis began. 

The analysis suggests that while inflation has fallen from the highs of mid-2022, many families have yet to see material relief.

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Morgan Stanley (MS) earnings Q3 2024

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Ted Pick, CEO Morgan Stanley, speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland on Jan. 18th, 2024.

Adam Galici | CNBC

Morgan Stanley topped analysts’ estimates for third quarter profit as its wealth management, trading and investment banking operations generated more revenue than expected.

Here’s what the company reported:

  • Earnings:$1.88 a share vs $1.58 LSEG estimate
  • Revenue: $15.38 billion vs. $14.41 billion estimate

Morgan Stanley had several tailwinds in its favor. The bank’s massive wealth management business was helped by high stock market values in the quarter, which inflates the management fees the bank collects.

Investment banking has rebounded after a dismal 2023, a trend that may continue as easing rates will encourage more financing and merger activity.

Finally, its Wall Street rivals have posted better-than-expected trading results, making it unlikely that the firm missed out on elevated activity.

JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup topped expectations, helped by better-than-expected revenue from trading or investment banking.

This story is developing. Please check back for updates.

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China’s Alibaba claims AI translation tool beats Google, ChatGPT

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Chinese e-commerce company Alibaba has invested heavily in its fast-growing international business as growth slows for its China-focused Taobao and Tmall business.

Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

BEIJING — Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba‘s international arm on Wednesday launched an updated version of its artificial intelligence-powered translation tool that, it says, is better than products offered by Google, DeepL and ChatGPT.

That’s based on an assessment of Alibaba International’s new model, Marco MT, by translation benchmark framework Flores, the Chinese company said.

Alibaba’s fast-growing international unit released the AI translation product as an update to one unveiled about a year ago, which it says already has 500,000 merchant users. Sellers based in one country can use the translation tool to create product pages in the language of the target market.

The new version is based only on large language models, allowing it to draw on contextual clues such as culture or industry-specific terms, Kaifu Zhang, vice president of Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group and head of the business’ artificial intelligence initiative, told CNBC in an interview Tuesday.

“The idea is that we want this AI tool to help the bottom line of the merchants, because if the merchants are doing well, the platform will be doing well,” he said.

Large language models power artificial intelligence applications such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT, which can also translate text. The models, trained on massive amounts of data, can generate humanlike responses to user prompts.

Alibaba’s translation tool is based on its own model called Qwen. The product supports 15 languages: Arabic, Chinese, Dutch, English, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Polish, Portuguese, Russian, Spanish, Turkish and Ukrainian.

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Zhang said he expects “substantial demand” for the tool from Europe and the Americas. He also expects emerging markets to be a significant area of use.

When users of Alibaba.com — a site for suppliers to sell to businesses — are categorized by country, developing countries account for about half of the top 20 active AI tool users, Zhang said.

Chinese companies have increasingly looked abroad for growth opportunities, especially e-commerce merchants. PDD Holdings‘ Temu, fast fashion seller Shein and ByteDance’s TikTok are among the recent global market entrants. Many China-based merchants also sell on Amazon.com.

Contextual clues

Since Alibaba launched the first version of its AI translation tool last fall, the company said merchants have used it for more than 100 million product listings. Similar to other AI-based services, the basic pricing charges merchants by the amount of translated text.

Zhang declined to share how much the updated version would cost. He said it was included in some service bundles for merchants wanting simple exposure to overseas users.

His thinking is that contextual translation makes it much more likely that consumers decide to buy. He shared an example in which a colloquial Chinese description for a slipper would have turned off English-speaking consumers if it was only translated literally, without getting at the implied meaning.

“The updated translation engine is going to make Double 11 a better experience for consumers because of more authentic expression,” Zhang said, in reference to the Alibaba-led shopping festival that centers on Nov. 11 each year.

Alibaba’s international business includes platforms such as AliExpress and Lazada, which primarily targets Southeast Asia. The international unit reported sales growth of 32% to $4.03 billion in the quarter ended June from a year ago.

That’s in contrast to a 1% year-on-year drop in sales to $15.6 billion for Alibaba’s main Taobao and Tmall e-commerce business, which has focused on China.

The Taobao app is also popular with consumers in Singapore. In September, the app launched an AI-powered English version for users in the country.

Nomura analysts expect that Alibaba’s international revenue slowed slightly to 29% year-on-year growth in the quarter ended September, while operating losses narrowed, according to an Oct. 10 report. Alibaba has yet to announce when it will release quarterly earnings.

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ASML, UNH, WBA and more

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