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US car sales get year-end boost from Trump’s threat to end EV tax credits

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President-elect Donald Trump’s threat to eliminate tax credits for electric vehicles likely gave plug-in cars a much-needed boost after a disappointing year, part of a broader surge in auto sales at the end of the year.

EV sales grew 12% in the fourth quarter of 2024, pushing the full-year total to a record 1.3 million, according to forecasts from researcher Cox Automotive. That’s up from an 8% growth rate in the previous quarter. Plug-in models make up around 8% of the overall US car market, only slightly more than a year ago. 

A strong fourth quarter also helped push total car sales up from the year prior. The annualized rate for 2024 rose to 15.9 million cars, based on the average forecast of four researchers, up from 15.5 million a year ago.

This EV surge isn’t expected to last into 2025. The results of the U.S. presidential election encouraged buyers holding out for deals to make purchases before policy changes championed by Trump make electric options even more expensive next year. 

Only a quarter of new-car shoppers are considering an EV for their next purchase, down two percentage points from a year ago, according to JD Power.

“Threats and worries” contributed to a “sense of urgency to buying,” Jonathan Smoke, Cox’s chief economist, said on a December call with reporters. “That’s true in overall purchase activity, and it’s also very much true to the EV story.”

Trump made repealing federal policies meant to boost U.S. EV sales a key part of his campaign, railing against what he called President Joe Biden’s “insane electric vehicle mandate.” Advisors to his transition team have recommended cutting the $7,500 tax credit on plug-in vehicles, which would make the already expensive vehicles even further out of reach for U.S. consumers. The president-elect has also threatened tariffs on Canada and Mexico — both tightly integrated into the U.S. auto supply chain — which could also drive up the price of cars.

As for the overall new car market, lower interest rates, rising manufacturer incentives and fading anxiety around the election drew more buyers, prompting analysts to raise full-year sales forecasts. Earlier in the year, inflation and a cyberattack on car dealerships had dimmed the sales outlook for 2024.

General Motors Co. was likely the the biggest automaker in the U.S. by sales last year, delivering 2.7 million cars, followed by Toyota Motor Corp., Ford Motor Co., Hyundai Motor Co. and Honda Motor Co., according to Cox. 

Stellantis NV, which has been plagued by product launch delays and bloated inventories that led to the ouster of its CEO last year, fell to sixth place with a 15% plunge in deliveries, Cox forecast.

For EVs, Tesla Inc. is still the sales leader by far, but experienced its first annual sales drop in more than a decade last year despite reporting record fourth-quarter deliveries. Meanwhile, electric compact and mid-size SUVs from GM, Honda, Hyundai and Kia attracted more shoppers in December, according to JD Power. 

Affordability is keeping car sales of all kinds below pre-pandemic levels, according to Jeff Schuster, GlobalData’s vice president of automotive research. The average retail transaction price for new vehicles is trending toward $46,258, according to JD Power. For EVs, high costs are the biggest stumbling block for potential buyers, followed by insufficient charging infrastructure. 

On average, EV buyers got a $5,600 rebate per car with the current tax credit, JD Power figures show. Without that kind of incentive, demand could plunge as much as 27%, according to economists

While some carmakers, like GM and Hyundai, have pledged to push ahead with EV offerings regardless of policy changes, others have delayed EV plans to prioritize hybrids, which saw outsized growth in 2024. Stellantis said last month it would delay launching its all-electric Ram a year in favor of an extended-range version. Hyundai said it would double its hybrid lineup and Ford has pledged to offer hybrid versions of all its models by 2030 after slashing prices on its EVs and postponing new electric models. 

Automakers that take that “basket approach” will come out on top in 2025, GlobalData’s Schuster said. “If you have a full lineup of options, that’s who wins.”

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Accounting

In the blogs: Great minds

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Trump’s tax policy guy; states copy the feds; what’s in a name; and other highlights from our favorite tax bloggers. 

And we’re off

  • Current Federal Tax Developments (https://www.currentfederaltaxdevelopments.com/): Out with the good news and in the bad: Matthew Hutcheson, convicted of wire fraud in 2013 and sentenced to 17 years, had his remaining sentence commuted by President Biden as part of his end-of-term pardons. Three days into this year, though, the Tax Court tagged Hutcheson for taxes on what he’d embezzled that led to those convictions.
  • TaxProf Blog (http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog/): A look at Ken Kies, named by Trump to be Treasury assistant secretary for tax policy. 
  • Don’t Mess with Taxes (http://dontmesswithtaxes.typepad.com/): Time’s running out for 2025’s first batch of taxpayers who got filing extensions due to disasters in 2024.
  • Mauled Again (http://mauledagain.blogspot.com/): A new year, an old problem and a fresh, different stage: A look at a recent IRS warning about tax lies on social media.
  • TaxConnex (https://www.taxconnex.com/blog-): Every new year brings a ton of developments in all varieties of tax (with the next couple of years being People’s Exhibit A). Sales tax, driven by burgeoning ecommerce, again has more than its share of trends on tap.
  • U of I Tax School (https://taxschool.illinois.edu/blog/): A look back at this blog’s top entries of 2024 include such topics as employees versus contractors, 1099-Ks and the ever-popular beneficial ownership information reporting.
  • John R. Dundon II EA (http://johnrdundon.com/blog/): Why the blogger recommends voluntary BOI filing no matter the back and forth on the subject in courts.

Great minds

  • Taxbuzz (https://www.taxbuzz.com/blog): “Rob Gronkowski and Elon Musk Agree: It’s Time to Simplify the U.S. Tax Code.”
  • Tax Vox (https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox): States can be labs for tax moves, but the reverse can also happen: The federal Child Tax Credit has inspired Minnesota to launch its own credit.
  • The Buzz About Taxes (http://thebuzzabouttaxes.com/): In the landmark Bruyea v. United States decision, the U.S. Court of Federal Claims has ruled in favor of a dual Canadian-U.S. citizen, allowing a treaty-based foreign tax credit to be applied against the NIIT.
  • Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (https://itep.org/category/blog/): How undocumented immigrants do pay a hefty share of taxes.
  • Gordon Law (https://gordonlawltd.com/blog/): Could Puerto Rico become the next big crypto tax haven?

Detail-oriented

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Accounting

IRS, Treasury finalize rules for clean electricity tax credits

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The Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service released final rules Tuesday for the Clean Electricity Investment and Production Tax Credits in Sections 45Y and 48E of the Tax Code.

The tax credits, also known as the “technology-neutral credits,” aim to reduce energy costs and meet growing demand created by major investments in the U.S. economy. 

To receive the full value of the credits, taxpayers need to meet standards for paying prevailing wages and employing registered apprentices, helping ensure more clean energy jobs are good-paying jobs, and growing career opportunities for workers in the clean energy sector. The technology-neutral Clean Electricity Production and Investment Tax Credits are also eligible for bonus credits related to siting projects in energy communities and meeting certain standards for using domestic content.

According to an analysis from the Department of Energy, the tech-neutral credits, along with other Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law provisions, are expected to save American families up to $38 billion on electricity bills through 2030.

The final rules issued Tuesday provide more clarity and certainty about which clean electricity zero-emissions technologies qualify for the credits, including wind, solar, hydropower, marine and hydrokinetic, geothermal, nuclear, and certain waste energy recovery property. The Treasury and the IRS expect to soon release the first Annual Table confirming this list of qualifying technologies. The final rules also include guidance to clarify how combustion and gasification technologies can qualify in the future, including on how lifecycle analysis assessments compliant with the statute will be conducted.

“The final rules issued today will help ensure America’s clean energy investment boom continues – driving down utility costs for American families and small businesses, creating good-paying construction jobs, and strengthening energy security by making the U.S. more resistant to price shocks,” said Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen in a statement.

However, the new rules face pushback from the incoming Trump administration, with President-elect Trump saying Tuesday, “We’re going to try and have a policy where no windmills are being built.”

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Accounting

Caseware to acquire lease software company

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Audit and accounting data solutions provider Caseware announced the acquisition of Atlanta-based SaaS provider LeaseJava. This is Caseware’s eighth acquisition since Hg Capital acquired majority ownership in late 2020. 

Cloud-based LeaseJava is designed to help audit firms, corporations and non-profit/government entities to manage their leases and ensure compliance with accounting standards such as ASC 842, IFRS 16 and GASB 87. Specifically, it supports lease modifications without the need to create a new lease, as modifications can easily be added to existing leases. The solution is made to handle complex and nuanced scenarios, computing details down to the daily level and aggregating them to manage intricate situations. Export functionality is configurable, allowing the user to select and group leases accurately. Additionally, LeaseJava offers weighted average computation and a bulk import feature to enhance ease of use.

A spokesperson with Caseware said current customers of LeaseJava will still be able to use the software they’ve been using. Meanwhile, Caseware customers will be able to purchase it in the coming months. Caseware is in the process of evaluating continued application of the LeaseJava branding relative to future product plans.

This acquisition is an example of Caseware’s continued commitment to investing in solutions that will improve the accountant’s experience while providing integrated workflow management and analytics, according to the spokesperson.

Caseware office new

“This acquisition underscores Caseware’s commitment to enhancing its connected ecosystem, artificial intelligence strategy and the provision of an even more comprehensive suite of trusted, innovative solutions. Customers can look forward to a seamless experience and the continued evolution of the Caseware family of products, enabling them to effortlessly manage their workflows and do their jobs better than ever before,” said David Osborne, Caseware CEO.

LeaseJava is headed by Michael Cheng, who is also a partner at Frazier and Deeter LLC. Prior to that, he worked directly with the FASB as a senior project manager. He is also a current member of the FASB’s Private Company Council, one year into his three-year term.

“I co-developed LeaseJava to solve the issues I was experiencing with lease computations along with Venkat Avasarala, Partner and CEO of Acuvity Consulting. He played a key role in its development, providing strategic leadership and expertise that were instrumental in shaping the platform’s growth and success,” said Cheng. “The acquisition by Caseware marks a significant milestone for both the solution and the profession. I am confident that the Caseware team, renowned for its innovation and commitment to excellence, will enhance the capabilities of LeaseJava, providing even greater value to users. Caseware’s global footprint and unparalleled ability to deliver expertly crafted technology and domain expertise worldwide, underscores their position as an industry leader.”
 
Caseware’s US customers will be the first to benefit from LeaseJava. The organization also plans to extend the solution’s availability to other markets, including Canada and the UK.  LeaseJava has been available for sale in the US and supports US GAAP, IFRS and GASB lease accounting, with a revised onboarding process for new customers to purchase over the coming months.

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