On the heels of a stronger-than-expected jobs report and elevated inflation readings, the Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at the end of its two-day meeting this week — despite pressure from President Donald Trump.

“Consumers have been waiting for years to see pricing come down. NO INFLATION, THE FED SHOULD LOWER ITS RATE!!!” Trump said in a Truth Social post Friday.

As an independent agency, the central bank has always operated autonomously from the White House. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly said that monetary policy decisions are completely separate from politics. At the same time, the president’s new trade policies are a barrier to cutting rates, in part because economists expect the new tariffs could lead to a widespread rise in prices that complicate inflation forecasts.

To be sure, many Americans are getting squeezed by high prices and high borrowing costs, while the potential inflation impacts from a costly trade war weigh heavily on household budgets.

“Consumers are always the ones who pay the price,” said Eugenio Aleman, chief economist at Raymond James.

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The federal funds rate sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending, but also affects many of the borrowing and savings rates consumers see every day.

“Uncertainty rules amid a trade war and the ever-changing landscape of tariffs,” said Greg McBride, Bankrate’s chief financial analyst. “But with the hard data on consumer spending and employment still hanging in there, the Fed will remain firmly planted on the sidelines.”

Markets now widely expect the Fed to wait to cut rates until July, with two or three more reductions to follow by the end of the year.

Once the federal funds rate comes down, borrowing costs could decrease across a variety of consumer debt, such as auto loans, credit cards and mortgage rates, making it easier to access cheaper money. 

Here’s a breakdown of how it works.

Most credit cards have a variable rate, so there’s a direct connection to the Fed’s benchmark.

For the most part, the average annual percentage rate has hovered just over 20% this year, according to Bankrate, not far from last year’s all-time high. 

The Fed holding steady isn’t the only thing keeping credit card rates high. “Banks are nervous about all of the uncertainty in the economy and what it means for consumers,” said Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree.

“When that happens, banks try to minimize risk as much as possible, and one of the ways they do that is to raise interest rates on credit cards,” he said.

Credit card debt continues to be a pain point for consumers struggling to keep up with high prices. Total credit card debt and average balances are also at record highs.

Although 15- and 30-year mortgage rates are largely tied to Treasury yields and the economy, concerns about the direction of the economic policy and Trump’s tariff plans have been a drag on rates, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

The average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is now 6.81%, down from 7.04% at the beginning of the year, according to Bankrate. But for potential home buyers, that’s not enough of a decline to give the housing market a boost.

“Unfortunately for those shopping for a home this summer, rates are likely to stay in or around that range in the near future,” Schulz said.

Although auto loan rates have seen little change, car payments have gone up because prices are rising, while Trump’s 25% tariffs of imported vehicles adds more pressure.

Currently, the average rate on a five-year new car loan is 7.33%, down from 7.53% in January, according to Bankrate.

Federal student loan rates are fixed for the life of the loan, so most borrowers are somewhat shielded from Fed moves and recent economic turmoil.

Interest rates for the upcoming school year will be based in part on the May auction of the 10-year Treasury note and aren’t likely to change much. Undergraduate students who took out direct federal student loans for the 2024-25 academic year are paying 6.53%, up from 5.50% in 2023-24.

Although borrowers with existing federal student debt balances won’t see their rates change, many are now facing other headwinds and fewer federal loan forgiveness options.

On the upside, top-yielding online savings accounts still offer above-average returns and currently pay as much as 4.5%, according to Bankrate. While the central bank has no direct influence on deposit rates, the yields tend to be correlated to changes in the target federal funds rate — so holding that rate unchanged has kept savings rates elevated, for now.

“For consumers, oftentimes the best way to protect your finances in times of uncertainty is to double-down on boosting emergency savings and eliminating high interest rate debt,” said Bankrate’s McBride. “This builds a buffer in the event of an income disruption or unanticipated expenses and insulates you from costly borrowing.”

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Even though inflation hasn’t yet declined to policymakers’ target level, some pockets of the U.S. economy have seen prices fall recently.

Consumers have seen prices deflate for airfare, produce, household goods, electronics and gasoline, for example, according to the consumer price index, an inflation gauge. (Deflation is when prices decline, while disinflation is when prices continue to grow but at a slower pace.)

“There are a lot of idiosyncratic factors affecting certain categories,” said Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “In the end, it’s supply and demand that will affect prices.”

Of course, some categories are volatile and prone to extreme price gyrations — meaning price declines could quickly reverse. Tariffs also threaten to roil the picture and put upward pressure on many consumer prices.

“Consumers should enjoy these lower prices, because they’re not here to stay,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s. “They’re going away pretty quickly, I think, over the next few weeks and months.”

Here are some areas where consumers have seen a bit less stress on their wallets lately.

President Donald Trump claimed in a social media post Friday that gas prices had dipped to $1.98 per gallon for motorists. However, that claim isn’t true: The average retail gas price is more than $3 a gallon , according to the US. Energy Information Administration.

However, prices have broadly declined in the past year.

Gasoline prices are down almost 10% from a year ago, according to the latest CPI data. They fell about 6% just in the month from February to March, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the data shows.

Oil prices have a large bearing on the prices consumers pay at the pump, since gasoline is refined from oil.

Crude oil prices have fallen significantly. For example, futures prices for West Texas Intermediate, a U.S. oil benchmark, are down 22% over the past year.

Lower prices signal fears that the U.S. economy is slowing down, which would mean less demand for oil, Sweet said. Meanwhile, a group of oil-producing nations known OPEC+ agreed to raise production over the weekend, weakening prices amid greater supply.

“Prices can’t go much lower for very long or [oil] producers will start pulling back production,” Zandi said.

Jet fuel is a major input cost for airlines; jet fuel prices are down about 15% in the year through April 25, according to the International Air Transport Association.

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Weaker travel demand, particularly from international tourists to the U.S., has also put downward pressure on fares, economists said.

International visits to the U.S. fell about 14% in March 2025 from a year earlier, according to the U.S. Travel Association.

The international community is wary of traveling to the U.S. due to tensions from a U.S.-initiated trade war, and territorial declarations from the White House such as Canada becoming the 51^st state or about a possible takeover of Greenland, economists said. People also fear the threat of being detained when entering the country, economists said.

Tomatoes imported from Mexico will face new tariffs starting in mid-July, however, following a Trump administration withdrawal from a trade agreement between the two nations.

The lettuce crop has transitioned to Salinas, California, for the spring and the harvest has “plentiful yield and high quality,” Rubin wrote. The crop generally transitions to Yuma, Arizona, from November to April, but “production challenges” through the winter put upward pressure on prices, he wrote.

Technology continually improves, meaning consumers get more for their money. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles CPI data, treats those quality improvements as a price decline, giving the illusion of falling prices on paper.

The reasons for price declines in other categories can be somewhat hard to pin down, economists said.

For example, certain household goods like dishes and flatware, sporting goods, and toys saw prices fall about 11%, 5% and 2%, respectively, in the past year. Similarly, segments of the clothing market like infants’ and toddlers’ apparel fell 4%.

Apparel, for example, can be “very seasonal,” Sweet said.  

“It could be weather or the timing of certain holidays,” he said. “All of that can throw apparel prices for a loop.”

A potential explanation, Zandi said, is retailers who tried stockpiling certain goods in anticipation of tariffs may have bulked up their inventories more than expected, and may be pricing those goods more aggressively to reduce those inventories, he said.

For many Americans, a Social Security number is the first form of identification they receive, mailed as a paper card a few weeks after birth.

Now, the Social Security Administration is looking to give that form of ID an update by enabling secure digital access to Social Security numbers that will provide an alternative to the traditional Social Security card. Experts are cautiously optimistic about the idea, but have some security concerns.

The new digital feature will allow individuals who have either forgotten their Social Security number or who have lost their Social Security cards to access their personal number online through the agency’s My Social Security website. They will also be able to access their Social Security numbers through digital devices and display them as identification for “reasons other than handling Social Security matters,” according to the agency.

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With the new effort, the Social Security Administration aims to reduce the inconveniences caused by lost or stolen cards, which currently requires individuals to apply for replacements either online or in person.

“We believe that this modern approach will meet the needs of our constituents in a more efficient manner,” Social Security Administration acting commissioner Lee Dudek said in a statement.

The agency declined to provide more details the rollout, which is scheduled to become available early this summer.

Every adult’s Social Security number has likely already been breached, according to Velasquez. The size of the 2024 National Public Data breach prompted some experts to speculate every American could have been affected. The 2017 Equifax breach was estimated to have affected roughly half the U.S. population.

The new process will raise questions as to how to protect both the Social Security numbers and the devices on which they are accessed, she said.

Ultimately, the U.S. in the future will likely move toward a federated identity system, where a user’s identity can be verified with biometric data like fingerprints and facial recognition that is linked across multiple systems, said Cliff Steinhauer, director of information security and engagement at The National Cybersecurity Alliance.

“There’s going to be a future where there’s a clean internet, where everyone that uses it has authenticated with this federated, proven identity so that nobody can pretend to be anybody else,” Steinhauer said.

The Social Security Administration’s move is a first step toward digital identification, though it does not appear to include biometric authentication, he said.

Because there will be risk for fraud, it will be important for the Social Security Administration to make sure its systems are properly protected, Steinhauer said. There should also be phishing-resistant authentication installed to ensure that only authorized individuals access the accounts, he said.

It will be important for individuals to verify that any messages that allegedly come from the Social Security Administration do, in fact, take them to a verified Social Security website.

Any messages the agency sends out, such as a reminder to log in and check an account, could be copied for phishing purposes, Steinhauer said.