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O.J. Simpson’s defence was a harbinger of post-truth politics

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ORENTHAL JAMES (O.J.) SIMPSON, who died on April 10th, was in many ways an inspiring figure before he murdered his ex-wife. He overcame a childhood disease, rickets, which made him slightly bow-legged. In 1973 he was rated the “Most Valuable Player” in America’s National Football League. He was “the first black athlete to become a bona fide lovable media superstar”, according to People magazine. He starred in movies (“The Towering Inferno”, “The Naked Gun”), and made a fortune endorsing Hertz rental cars.

Then, on June 12th 1994, his former wife, Nicole Brown, and a friend of hers, Ron Goldman, were found stabbed to death. Simpson, whom Brown had previously accused of violence and threats, was immediately suspected. But on the day he was supposed to surrender for questioning, he fled. A cavalcade of cop cars slowly pursued his white Bronco truck along the freeways of Los Angeles. News helicopters beamed live coverage to sitting rooms around the world. His trial brought America to a standstill. Perhaps 150m people watched it on television. As the verdict was read out, trading of stocks and currencies all but ceased. When he was acquitted, white America gasped with disbelief. Black Americans celebrated: more than 80% agreed with the jury. Gil Garcetti, one of the prosecutors, lamented that the verdict was “based on emotion that overcame reason”.

Simpson’s grim story illuminates two enduring ills. Most obviously: racial division. Simpson was black; Brown and Goldman were white. The jury that acquitted Simpson was three-quarters black. The jury that reached the opposite conclusion in a civil trial in 1997, finding him liable for the two murders and ordering him to pay millions of dollars to the victims’ families, was mostly white. Presented with the same set of facts, white and black Americans saw a different reality.

The second ill is conspiratorial thinking. The techniques of persuasion deployed by Simpson’s defence lawyers were a harbinger of those deployed by populists such as Donald Trump today. In effect, they urged the jurors to disregard the facts—Simpson’s blood was found at the crime scene, both victims’ blood was found in his car and in his house—and back the group they identify with. Just as Mr Trump has persuaded his supporters that all the criminal charges against him are cooked up by malign Democrats, so Simpson’s lawyers invited the jurors to imagine a nebulous conspiracy perpetrated by an institution they distrusted: the police. Someone else committed the murders and racist cops planted evidence to incriminate Simpson, they suggested.

One of the cops, Mark Fuhrman, had indeed used racial slurs in the past. But no actual evidence of a conspiracy was produced. Nonetheless, in a city where, only a couple of years before, three cops had been filmed savagely beating a black motorist, Rodney King, and were then acquitted of all charges, many African-Americans found the idea of one plausible.

Simpson’s lawyer fanned this notion with incendiary, them-and-us rhetoric. He likened Mr Fuhrman to Adolf Hitler, saying that Hitler won power because people didn’t try to stop him, and suggesting that it was the jurors’ duty to stand up to Mr Fuhrman before he took “all black people” and burned them.

Americans are less racist than they were in the 1990s. At the time of the Simpson trial, only half told Gallup, a pollster, that they approved of marriage between black and white people. Now 94% do. But conspiracism shows no sign of ebbing: half of Americans think President John F. Kennedy’s assassin had accomplices and a quarter think the billionaire financier George Soros has a secret plot to rule the world. Two of the three highest-polling presidential candidates this year, Mr Trump and Robert Kennedy junior, habitually dabble in conspiracy theories. If the lesson from the Simpson trial is that skilful demagogues can win over a big chunk of the public by inflaming divisions and “flood[ing] the zone with shit”, as a Trump adviser once put it, it has been well learned.

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Will Elon Musk’s cash splash pay off in Wisconsin?

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TO GET A sense of what the Republican Party thinks of the electoral value of Elon Musk, listen to what Brad Schimel, a conservative candidate for the Supreme Court of Wisconsin, has to say about the billionaire. At an event on March 29th at an airsoft range (a more serious version of paintball) just outside Kenosha, five speakers, including Mr Schimel, spoke for over an hour about the importance of the election to the Republican cause. Mr Musk’s political action committees (PACs) have poured over $20m into the race, far more than any other donor’s. But over the course of the event, his name came up precisely zero times.

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Economics

German inflation, March 2025

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Customers shop for fresh fruits and vegetables in a supermarket in Munich, Germany, on March 8, 2025.

Michael Nguyen | Nurphoto | Getty Images

German inflation came in at a lower-than-expected 2.3% in March, preliminary data from the country’s statistics office Destatis showed Monday.

It compares to February’s 2.6% print, which was revised lower from a preliminary reading, and a poll of Reuters economists who had been expecting inflation to come in at 2.4% The print is harmonized across the euro area for comparability. 

On a monthly basis, harmonized inflation rose 0.4%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, came in at 2.5%, below February’s 2.7% reading.

Meanwhile services inflation, which had long been sticky, also eased to 3.4% in March, from 3.8% in the previous month.

The data comes at a critical time for the German economy as U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs loom and fiscal and economic policy shifts at home could be imminent.

Trade is a key pillar for the German economy, making it more vulnerable to the uncertainty and quickly changing developments currently dominating global trade policy. A slew of levies from the U.S. are set to come into force this week, including 25% tariffs on imported cars — a sector that is key to Germany’s economy. The country’s political leaders and car industry heavyweights have slammed Trump’s plans.

Meanwhile Germany’s political parties are working to establish a new coalition government following the results of the February 2025 federal election. Negotiations are underway between the Christian Democratic Union, alongside its sister party the Christian Social Union, and the Social Democratic Union.

While various points of contention appear to remain between the parties, their talks have already yielded some results. Earlier this month, Germany’s lawmakers voted in favor of a major fiscal package, which included amendments to long-standing debt rules to allow for higher defense spending and a 500-billion-euro ($541 billion) infrastructure fund.

This is a breaking news story, please check back for updates.

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First-quarter GDP growth will be just 0.3% as tariffs stoke stagflation conditions, says CNBC survey

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U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to members of the media aboard Air Force One before landing in West Palm Beach, Florida, U.S., March 28, 2025. 

Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

Policy uncertainty and new sweeping tariffs from the Trump administration are combining to create a stagflationary outlook for the U.S. economy in the latest CNBC Rapid Update.

The Rapid Update, averaging forecasts from 14 economists for GDP and inflation, sees first quarter growth registering an anemic 0.3% compared with the 2.3% reported in the fourth quarter of 2024. It would be the weakest growth since 2022 as the economy emerged from the pandemic.

Core PCE inflation, meanwhile, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, will remain stuck at around 2.9% for most of the year before resuming its decline in the fourth quarter.

Behind the dour GDP forecasts is new evidence that the decline in consumer and business sentiment is showing up in real economic activity. The Commerce Department on Friday reported that real, or inflation-adjusted consumer spending in February rose just 0.1%, after a decline of -0.6% in January. Action Economics dropped its outlook for spending growth to just 0.2% in this quarter from 4% in the fourth quarter.

“Signs of slowing in hard activity data are becoming more convincing, following an earlier worsening in sentiment,” wrote Barclays over the weekend.

Another factor: a surge of imports (which subtract from GDP) that appear to have poured into the U.S. ahead of tariffs.

The good news is the import effect should abate and only two of the 12 economists surveyed see negative growth in Q1. None forecast consecutive quarters of economic contraction. Oxford Economics, which has the lowest Q1 estimate at -1.6%, expects a continued drag from imports but sees second quarter GDP rebounding to 1.9%, because those imports will eventually end up boosting growth when they are counted in inventory or sales measures.

Recession risks rising

On average, most economists forecast a gradual rebound, with second quarter GDP averaging 1.4%, third quarter at 1.6% and the final quarter of the year rising to 2%.

The danger is an economy with anemic growth of just 0.3% could easily slip into negative territory. And, with new tariffs set to come this week, not everyone is so sure about a rebound.

“While our baseline doesn’t show a decline in real GDP, given the mounting global trade war and DOGE cuts to jobs and funding, there is a good chance GDP will decline in the first and even the second quarters of this year,” said Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics. “And a recession will be likely if the president doesn’t begin backtracking on the tariffs by the third quarter.”

Moody’s looks for anemic Q1 growth of just 0.4% that rebounds to 1.6% by year end, which is still modestly below trend.

Stubborn inflation will complicate the Fed’s ability to respond to flagging growth. Core PCE is expected at 2.8% this quarter, rising to 3% next quarter and staying roughly at that level until in drops to 2.6% a year from now.

While the market looks to be banking on rate cuts, the Fed could find them difficult to justify until inflation begins falling more convincingly at the end of the year.

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