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Amid trade turmoil, ‘you do not want to time the market’

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Pres. Trump unveils sweeping tariffs: Here's what to know

As President Donald Trump rolls out sweeping new tariffs on goods imported into the United States, Americans are growing increasingly pessimistic about their financial fate.

Consumers worry that the duties will cause inflation to flare up again, while investors fear that higher prices will mean lower profits and more pain for the battered stock market

As of Thursday morning, futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 1,200 points, or 2.8%. S&P 500 futures sank 3.4%, and Nasdaq-100 futures lost 4%.

But sharp drops — or sudden spikes — in the market are to be expected, according to Jean Chatzky, CEO of HerMoney.com and host of the podcast HerMoney with Jean Chatzky.

“With these volatile markets, you do not want to time the market,” she said of the old adage. “Timing the market doesn’t work — it’s time in the market.”

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Trade tensions, inflation and concerns about a possible recession have undermined consumer confidence across the board, several studies show.

Still, it’s normal for most Americans to feel unnerved during heightened volatility, Chatzky said.

“There’s very little doubt that consumers are feeling nervous, maybe more nervous than we’ve felt in quite some time,” she said.

Committing to setting money aside in a high-yield savings account, whether by scaling back on dining out or rideshare expenses, will help regain some financial control, Chatzky said.

Top-yielding online savings accounts currently pay 4.4%, on average, well beyond the savings account rates at some of the largest retail banks, which average just 0.41%.

“Taking action is the best way to feel more resilient,” she said.

It’s understandable why some may be hesitant to continue investing, however, when you are investing for the long term, a down market is an opportunity for dollar-cost averaging, which helps smooth out price fluctuations in the market, Chatzky said.

This is also a good time to check your investments to make sure you are still allocated properly and rebalance as needed, so you are not taking on more risk that you are comfortable with, she added.

Timing the market is a losing bet

Talk yourself down from making any sudden financial moves, Chatzky advised.

Trying to time the market is almost always a bad idea, other financial experts also say. That’s because it’s impossible to know when good and bad days will happen.

For example, the 10 best trading days by percentage gain for the S&P 500 over the past three decades all occurred during recessions, often in close proximity to the worst days, according to a Wells Fargo analysis published last year.

And, although stocks go up and down, the S&P 500 index has an average annualized return of around 10% over the past few decades.

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Personal Finance

Social Security updates anti-fraud measures for benefit claims

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A sign for the U.S. Social Security Administration is seen outside its headquarters in Woodlawn, Md., on Thursday, March 20, 2025.

Tom Williams | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images

New anti-fraud protections are slated to go into effect on Monday at the Social Security Administration.

Ahead of the new policy, an agency spokesperson confirmed on Wednesday that all claim types can still be completed over the telephone, including retirement, survivor and spousal or children’s benefits. Previously, the SSA said those applicants would need to visit an agency office in person for identity proofing.

Individuals making other benefit claims — including for Social Security disability insurance, Medicare and Supplemental Security Income — can also complete their claims entirely over the telephone, which is in line with the agency’s previous guidance, according to the spokesperson.

The Social Security Administration’s update did not mention changes to direct deposit information, which it had previously said would now require in-office visits.

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The agency’s new anti-fraud efforts come as new leadership under the Trump administration’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency is broadly seeking to curb waste, fraud and abuse across federal government agencies.

The SSA is implementing the new anti-fraud procedures, including stricter identity verification, as the agency faces website outages and long wait times on its 800 number, potentially forcing more people to visit offices for assistance.

Social Security experts and advocates have raised concerns that the new policies may make accessing benefits more difficult for vulnerable populations, particularly seniors and people with disabilities.

However, the Social Security Administration’s update is a positive development, said Bill Sweeney, senior vice president of government affairs at AARP. He did add that it would be more ideal if the policy and timeline were reconsidered for better outcomes.

“This seems like a pretty good and encouraging signal that they’re listening to folks, that they’re that they’re open to pivoting and reconsidering how to roll these things out and looking at new ideas for how to implement it,” Sweeney said.

Some beneficiaries will still need to visit offices

What you need to know about Social Security

Online applications may be difficult for many seniors and individuals with disabilities, who may lack access to the necessary resources or know how to navigate the processes, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a nonpartisan research and policy institute.

More than 10% of seniors in 35 states would need to travel more than 45 miles to get to the closest Social Security office, according to a new analysis from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

About 6 million seniors don’t drive, while almost 8 million older Americans have a medical condition or disability that makes it difficult for them to travel, according to the research from Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

Many beneficiaries already face obstacles getting through to the Social Security’s phone lines to make an in-person appointment and then need to drive to a field office, said Kathleen Romig, director of Social Security and disability policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. Generally, individuals need to call for an appointment, though the agency does urge beneficiaries to first try seeking help online.

‘Fear and concern among many older Americans’

Both experts and advocates take issue with the tight timeline under which the policy changes are being implemented.

“If you’re asking seniors and other SSA customers to do something different, you need to provide enough time for them to understand what it is they need to do,” Romig said.

The AARP sent a letter on Monday to Social Security Administration acting commissioner Lee Dudek urging the agency to “halt changes to phone services,” which will “only exacerbate the ongoing customer service crisis,” wrote Nancy LeaMond, chief advocacy and engagement officer.

Instead, the new policy changes should be done more deliberately, with public input, a clear communication strategy and reasonable timeline, the AARP explained in the letter.

The changes set to go into effect on Monday come as Social Security’s website has recently repeatedly crashed, phone service hold times have increased and in some cases disconnected callers, while field offices also have long in-person waits, LeaMond said in the letter.

“This chaotic environment is fueling fear and concern among many older Americans,” LeaMond wrote.

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How to check eligibility to claim the $1,400 IRS stimulus check

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The federal tax deadline is less than one week away — and there’s still time to collect a pandemic-era IRS stimulus check. It’s your final chance to do so.

If you’re unsure if you received the money, there’s a simple way to check via your IRS account online, tax experts say.

The 2021 stimulus payments were worth up to $1,400 per individual, or $2,800 per married couple. A family of four could receive up to $5,600 with two eligible dependents.

Filers who never received the funds could claim the recovery rebate credit on their 2021 federal return. The last chance for that credit is the 2024 tax deadline on April 15, according to the IRS.

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You’re eligible for the full recovery rebate credit with up to $75,000 in adjusted gross income as a single filer or $150,000 for married couples filing jointly for 2021.

The phaseout begins with earnings above that and eligibility falls to zero once adjusted gross income reaches $80,000 for single filers or $160,000 for married couples filing together.

The ‘best place to look’ for stimulus checks

The IRS in December unveiled plans to send “special payments” to 1 million taxpayers who didn’t claim the 2021 recovery rebate credit on tax returns for that year.  

Most payments should have arrived via direct deposit or mailed paper check by late January 2025, according to the agency. 

You can create a login for your IRS online account to check the status of your economic impact payments, including the 2021 stimulus check.

“That’s the best place to look,” said Tommy Lucas, a certified financial planner and enrolled agent at Moisand Fitzgerald Tamayo in Orlando, Florida.

After logging into your account, you can find stimulus check information in the “tax records” section under the “records and status” toolbar. 

You can also check the “tax records” section to see if you filed a return for 2021. While some taxpayers don’t earn enough to have a filing requirement, you must submit your 2021 return to claim the recovery rebate credit for your stimulus payment, Lucas explained.

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File your 2021 return if ‘there’s any doubt’

In some cases, online accounts show the IRS issued stimulus checks, but filers say they never received the money, said Syracuse University law professor Robert Nassau, director of the school’s low-income tax clinic.

“If there’s any doubt” about your payment, it’s better to file your 2021 return and claim the recovery rebate credit before April 15, he said. Otherwise, you could miss the deadline and lose your chance to collect the money, Nassau added. 

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Personal Finance

Here’s how to leverage tax-loss harvesting amid tariff volatility

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Sean Anthony Eddy | E+ | Getty Images

Amid stock market volatility, many investors are seeking portfolio protection. But they could be missing a prime tax planning opportunity, experts say.  

The strategy, known as tax-loss harvesting, is selling losing assets from a brokerage account to offset other investing gains to lower taxes. Losses are typically used to offset gains, such as those from investment sales or capital gains distributions from mutual funds or exchange-traded funds.

Once losses exceed profits, you can subtract up to $3,000 from regular income. After that, you can carry excess losses into future tax years indefinitely.       

“It’s looking for a silver lining on a pouring, rainy, cloudy day,” said certified financial planner Sean Lovison, founder of Philadelphia-area Purpose Built Financial Services. 

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Investors should weigh tax-loss harvesting opportunities anytime there’s stock market volatility, experts say. 

“That should be throughout the year,” said Lovison, who is also a certified public accountant. 

Tax-loss harvesting could be attractive with the S&P 500 Index still down more than 15% from an all-time high in February as of midday Tuesday. The index briefly entered bear market territory — more than 20% off its record — during Monday’s session amid tariff uncertainty.    

Here are some key things to know about tax-loss harvesting, financial advisors say.

You need a ‘very granular’ strategy

While tax-loss harvesting sounds simple, the current market pullback requires a “very granular” approach, according to CFP Judy Brown at SC&H Group in the Washington, D.C., and Baltimore area.

After many years of market growth, investment losses could include more recent purchases, said Brown, who is also a certified public accountant. She has been busy identifying specific “tax lots,” which are transaction records showing an asset’s purchase date and price.

You need systems to “quickly find those lots” to sell for the tax-loss harvesting benefit, Brown said.

Seeking safety amid market volatility: Strategies to keep your money safe

Know the ‘wash sale’ rule

One of the perks of tax-loss harvesting is that you can sell assets for a loss and reinvest a similar investment to maintain exposure, Lovison said. 

But you need to know about the “wash sale rule,” which blocks the tax break for buying a “substantially identical” asset within 30 days before or after the sale, according to the IRS.

While individual stocks may be easy, there’s less IRS guidance on how “substantially identical” applies to mutual funds and ETFs, experts say. 

For example, you could sell one large cap fund family for another from a different family when the holdings are slightly different, Lovison said.  

But if you’re repurchasing the same exact index holding identical funds, “that might not pass the [IRS] sniff test,” he said.  

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