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Magic number to retire comfortably is $1.26 million in 2025: report

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Phoenix Wang | Moment | Getty Images

There’s been a persistent gap between how much money savers are putting away and how much they think they will need once they retire.

Yet this year, many Americans are scaling back their expectations.

For 2025, the “magic number” to retire comfortably is down to an average $1.26 million, a $200,000 drop from the $1.46 million reported last year, according to a new study from Northwestern Mutual, which polled more than 4,600 adults in January.

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“Americans’ ‘magic number’ to retire comfortably has come down,” John Roberts, chief field officer at Northwestern Mutual, said in a statement. Inflation has receded, Roberts said, and as a result, people are adjusting their outlook.

The 2025 figure is roughly in line with estimates from 2023 and 2022, which were $1.27 million and $1.25 million, respectively.

However, that retirement goal is still high, Roberts added, “far beyond what many people have actually saved.”

‘Magic number’ vs. average retirement balances

Last year, positive market conditions helped propel retirement account balances near new highs. 

As of the fourth quarter of 2024, 401(k) and individual retirement account balances notched the second-highest averages on record, boosted by better savings behaviors and stock gains, according to the latest data from Fidelity Investments, the nation’s largest provider of 401(k) savings plans.

The average 401(k) balance was $131,700 in the fourth quarter, while the average IRA balance stood at $127,534, according to Fidelity.

No access to a 401(k)?

However, since then, U.S. markets have whipsawed. As of April 21, the S&P 500 is down roughly 10% year-to-date, while the Nasdaq Composite sank more than 15% in 2025. The Dow Jones Industrial Average pulled back 8%. 

“The 2025 stock market has not spared many savers,” said Winnie Sun, co-founder and managing director of Sun Group Wealth Partners, based in Irvine, California. “Your portfolio is likely lower than it was before the new year.”

Why retirement confidence is sinking

Workers today are largely on their own when it comes to their retirement security, which has also taken a toll on retirement confidence. “Notably, the current generation of retirees could be the last to use predictable sources of income such as pensions as the primary way they fund retirement,” Rita Assaf, vice president of retirement offerings at Fidelity Investments, said in a statement.

“The shift toward relying on retirement savings heightens the importance of grounding yourself in a financial plan as early as you can,” Assaf said.

Retirement rules of thumb

According to Fidelity, there are a few simple rules of thumb for retirement planning, such as saving 10 times your earnings by retirement age and the so-called 4% rule for retirement income, which suggests that retirees should be able to safely withdraw 4% of their investments, after adjusting for inflation, each year in retirement.

Other experts say there is no magic number for a retirement savings goal, but setting aside 15% of your yearly salary before taxes is a good place to start.

If your retirement date is still years away, “meet with an experienced financial advisor as soon as you can to evaluate your future income needs and put together a strategy sooner rather than later,” said Sun, a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council

Alternatively, if your retirement date is soon, “make sure your emergency fund is funded, tighten your spending, look into establishing a HELOC [home equity line of credit] if you have equity in your home as an emergency line, look for ways to bring in supplemental income while you can, and importantly, meet with an advisor to make sure you have a full picture of retirement will look like for you,” Sun said. 

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Personal Finance

Court blocks DOGE access to sensitive personal Social Security data

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A person holds a sign during a protest against cuts made by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration to the Social Security Administration, in White Plains, New York, U.S., March 22, 2025. 

Nathan Layne | Reuters

A federal judge has once again blocked Department of Government Efficiency staffers, operating inside the Social Security Administration, from accessing sensitive personal data of millions of Americans.

U.S. District Judge Ellen Lipton Hollander on Thursday granted a preliminary injunction to block the so-called DOGE from further accessing sensitive personal data stored by the agency. As a result, DOGE will have to comply with certain legal requirements when accessing SSA data. The order applies specifically to SSA employees who are working on the DOGE agenda.

The lawsuit was brought by the American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees; the AFL-CIO; American Federation of Teachers and Alliance for Retired Americans.

They are represented by national legal organization Democracy Forward.

The plaintiffs argue DOGE’s actions violate the Privacy Act, Social Security Act, Internal Revenue Code and Administrative Procedure Act.

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Defendants in the case include the Social Security Administration; the agency’s acting commissioner Leland Dudek; SSA chief information officer Michael Russo and/or his successor; Elon Musk, senior advisor to the president, and DOGE acting administrator Amy Gleason.

The order blocks the agency and its agents and employees from granting access to systems containing personally identifiable information including Social Security numbers, medical records, mental health records, employer and employee payment records, employee earnings, addresses, bank records, tax information and family court records.

DOGE and its affiliates must also disgorge and delete all non-anonymized personally identifiable information in their possession or control since Jan. 20, according to the order. They are also prohibited from installing any software on Social Security Administration systems and must remove any software installed since Jan. 20, the order states. In addition, the defendants are blocked from accessing, altering or disclosing the agency’s computer or software code.  

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“The court’s ruling sends a clear message: no one can bypass the law to raid government data systems for their own purposes,” said Skye Perryman, president and CEO of Democracy Forward, in a statement.

“We will continue working with our partners to ensure that DOGE’s overreach is permanently stopped and that people’s rights are protected,” Perryman said.

The injunction does allow DOGE staffers to access data that’s been redacted or stripped of anything personally identifiable, if they undergo training and background checks.

A temporary restraining order, which was issued by Hollander on March 20, is vacated and superseded with this order. The Trump administration had unsuccessfully appealed the temporary restraining order.

“We will appeal this decision and expect ultimate victory on the issue,” White House spokesperson Elizabeth Huston said in an email statement. “The American people gave President Trump a clear mandate to uproot waste, fraud, and abuse across the federal government. The Trump Administration will continue to fight to fulfill the mandate.”

The Social Security Administration did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

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Personal Finance

Education Dept. to resume collections on defaulted student loans

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The headquarters of the Department of Education on March 12, 2025 in Washington, DC.

Win McNamee | Getty Images

The U.S. Department of Education announced Monday that its Office of Federal Student Aid will resume “involuntary collections” on May 5 for federal student loans that are in default.

Collections will be made through the so-called Treasury Offset Program, which can reduce or withhold payments from the government — such as tax refunds, Social Security benefits, federal salaries and other benefits paid through a federal agency — to satisfy a past-due debt to the government.

“American taxpayers will no longer be forced to serve as collateral for irresponsible student loan policies,” U.S. Secretary of Education Linda McMahon said in a statement. “The Biden Administration misled borrowers: the executive branch does not have the constitutional authority to wipe debt away, nor do the loan balances simply disappear.”

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The Department has not collected on defaulted student loans since March 2020. After the Covid pandemic-era pause on federal student loan payments expired in September 2023, the Biden administration offered borrowers another year in which they would be shielded from the impacts of missed payments.

More than 5 million borrowers are currently in default, according to the Education Department, with another 4 million borrowers in “late-stage delinquency,” or over 90 days past-due on payments.

All borrowers in default will be notified via email by Office of Federal Student Aid in the next two weeks, the Department said. These borrowers can contact the government’s Default Resolution Group to make a monthly payment, enroll in an income-driven repayment plan, or sign up for loan rehabilitation

Borrowers who remain in default will be subject to “involuntary collections” and may eventually face administrative wage garnishment, the Education Department said.

“Borrowers who graduated during the pandemic may have no experience with loan repayment, so it is important to educate them about the process, including their rights and responsibilities,” said Higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

“Payment is due even if you are dissatisfied with the quality of the education you received,” he said.

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Personal Finance

How to protect your nest egg from tariff volatility near retirement

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Alistair Berg | Digitalvision | Getty Images

After the latest stock market volatility, many Americans are feeling stressed about the future of the U.S. economy and their finances.  

That uncertainty can be even more unsettling for near-retirees who are preparing to leave the workforce and tap portfolios for living expenses, experts say.

To that point, your first five years of retirement are the “danger zone” for tapping accounts during a downturn, according to Amy Arnott, a portfolio strategist with Morningstar Research Services.

If you take assets from accounts when the value is falling, “there’s less money left in the portfolio to benefit from an eventual rebound in the market,” she said. 

Some 4.18 million Americans in 2025 are projected to reach age 65, more than any previous year, according to a January report from the Alliance for Lifetime Income.  

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‘Protect your nest egg’

After several years of stock market growth, it’s important to “protect your nest egg” by rebalancing based on your risk tolerance and timeline, said CFP Jon Ulin, managing principal of Ulin & Co. Wealth Management in Boca Raton, Florida.

If you’re in your early 60s, you may shift assets closer to a 60/40 investment portfolio, which typically has 60% stocks and 40% bonds, he said.

However, that could include additional diversification, depending on your risk appetite and goals, experts say.

Alternatively, if you’re struggling with the latest market drawdowns, you may prefer a more conservative allocation, Baker said.

“This is a good time for a temperature check” to make sure your portfolio still matches your risk tolerance, he added.

Build your cash reserves

Typically, it’s best to avoid selling investments when the stock market is down, especially during the first few years of retirement, experts say.

The phenomenon, known as “sequence of returns risk,” shrinks your nest egg early, which hurts long-term portfolio growth when the market rebounds, research shows.

CFP Malcolm Ethridge, founder of Capital Area Planning Group in Washington, D.C., suggests keeping two years of income in cash within a couple of years of your planned retirement date.   

The strategy protects from early losses because retirees can tap cash reserves for living expenses while their portfolio recovers, he said.

There’s also a “psychological aspect” because the cash provides confidence to spend portfolio assets, which “sets the stage for the rest of retirement,” Ethridge said.

73% of Americans are financially stressed

Consider a ‘bond ladder’

Amid bond market volatility, older investors may also consider building a bond ladder to provide portfolio income, said Alex Caswell, a San Francisco-based CFP at Wealth Script Advisors. 

This investment strategy involves purchasing a range of shorter-term Treasuries with staggered maturity dates, providing a steady income stream while managing interest rate risk, Caswell said.

For example, you may invest in Treasuries that mature every six months or one year for up to five years. Some investors also use the ladder method with certificates of deposit, he said.   

The maturing bonds or CDs offer “an extra layer of emotional comfort and stability for clients, especially those just entering retirement,” he said.   

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