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Surging inflation fears sent markets tumbling and Fed officials scrambling

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A sign advertising units for rent is displayed outside of a Manhattan building on April 11, 2024 in New York City.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

The early data is in for the path of inflation during the first three months of 2024, and the news so far is, well, not good.

Pick your poison. Whether it’s prices at the register or wholesale input costs, while inflation is off the blistering pace of 2022, it doesn’t appear to be going away anytime soon. Future expectations also have been drifting higher.

Investors, consumers and policymakers — even economists — have been caught off guard with just how stubborn price pressures have been to start 2024. Stocks slumped Friday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average coughed up nearly 500 points, dropping 2.4% on the week and surrendering nearly all its gains for the year.

“Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me,” Harvard economist Jason Furman told CNBC this week. “We’ve now had three months in a row of prints coming in above just about what everyone expected. It’s time to change the way we think about things going forward.”

No doubt, the market has been forced to change its thinking dramatically.

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Even import prices, an otherwise minor data point, contributed to the narrative. In March, it posted its biggest increase for a three-month period in about two years. All of it has amounted to a big headache for markets, which sold off through most of the week before really hitting the skids Friday.

As if all the bad inflation news wasn’t enough, a Wall Street Journal report Friday indicated that Iran plans to attack Israel in the next two days, adding to the cacophony. Energy prices, which have been a major factor in the past two months’ inflation readings, pushed higher on signs of further geopolitical turmoil.

“You can take your pick. There’s a lot of catalysts” for Friday’s sell-off, said market veteran Jim Paulsen, a former strategist and economist with Wells Fargo and other firms who now writes a blog for Substack titled Paulsen Perspectives. “More than anything, this is really down to one thing now, and it’s the Israel-Iran war if that’s going to happen. … It just gives you a great sense of instability.”

High hopes dashed

In contrast, heading into the year markets saw an accommodative Fed poised to cut interest rates early and often — six or seven times, with the kickoff happening in March. But with each months’ stubborn data, investors have had to recalibrate, now anticipating just two cuts, according to futures market pricing that sees a non-zero probability (about 9%) of no reductions this year.

“I’d love the Fed to be in a position to cut rates later this year,” said Furman, who served as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under former President Barack Obama. “But the data is just not close to being there, at least yet.”

This week was filled with bad economic news, with each day literally bringing another dose of reality about inflation.

It started Monday with a New York Fed consumer survey showing expectations for rent increases over the next year rising dramatically, to 8.7%, or 2.6 percentage points higher than the February survey. The outlook for food, gas, medical care and education costs all rose as well.

On Tuesday, the National Federation of Independent Business showed that optimism among its members hit an 11-year low, with members citing inflation as their primary concern.

Wednesday brought a higher-than-expected consumer price reading that showed the 12-month inflation rate at 3.5%, while the Labor Department on Thursday reported that wholesale prices showed their biggest one-year gain since April 2023.

Finally, a report Friday indicated that import prices rose more than expected in March and notched the biggest three-month advance since May 2022. On top of that, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned that “persistent inflationary pressures” posed a threat to the economy and business. And the University of Michigan’s closely watched consumer sentiment survey came in lower than expected, with respondents pushing up their inflation outlook as well.

Still ready to cut, sometime

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While consumer and producer price indexes captured the market’s attention this week, it’s worth remembering that the Fed’s attention is elsewhere when it comes to inflation. Policymakers instead follow the personal consumption expenditures price index, which has not been released yet for March.

There are two key differences between the CPI and the PCE indexes. Primarily, the Commerce Department’s PCE adjusts for changes in consumer behavior, so if people are substituting, say, chicken for beef because of price changes, that would be reflected more in PCE than CPI. Also, PCE places less weighting on housing costs, an important consideration with rental and other shelter prices holding higher.

In February, the PCE readings were 2.5% for all items and 2.8% ex-food and energy, or the “core” reading that Fed officials watch more closely. The next release won’t come until April 26; Citigroup economists said that current tracking data points to core edging lower to 2.7%, better but still a distance from the Fed’s goal.

Adding up the signals

Moreover, there are multiple other signals showing that the Fed has a long way to go.

So-called sticky price CPI, as calculated by the Atlanta Fed, edged up to 4.5% on a 12-month basis in March, while flexible CPI surged a full percentage point, albeit to only 0.8%. Sticky price CPI entails items such as housing, motor vehicle insurance and medical care services, while flexible price is concentrated in food, energy and vehicle prices.

Finally, the Dallas Fed trimmed mean PCE, which throws out extreme readings on either side, to 3.1% in February — again a ways from the central bank’s goal.

A bright spot for the Fed is that the economy has been able to tolerate high rates, with little impact to the employment picture or growth at the macro level. However, there’s worry that such conditions won’t last forever, and there have been signs of cracks in the labor market.

“I have long worried that the last mile of inflation would be the hardest. There’s a lot of evidence for a non-linearity in the disinflation process,” said Furman, the Harvard economist. “If that’s the case, you would require a decent amount of unemployment to get inflation all the way to 2.0%.”

That’s why Furman and others have pushed for the Fed to rethink it’s determined commitment to 2% inflation. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, for instance, told CNBC on Friday that if the Fed could get inflation to around 2.8%-3%, it should “call it a day and a win.”

“At a minimum, I think getting to something that rounds to 2% inflation would be just fine — 2.49 rounds to two. If it stabilized there, I don’t think anyone would notice it,” Furman said. “I don’t think they can tolerate a risk of inflation above 3 though, and that’s the risk that we’re facing right now.”

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Economics

Job openings showed surprising increase to 7.4 million in April

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JOLTS beats estimates, posts best number since February

Employers increased job openings more than expected in April while hiring and layoffs also both rose, according to a report Tuesday that showed a relatively steady labor market.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed available jobs totaled nearly 7.4 million, an increase of 191,000 from March and higher than the 7.1 million consensus forecast by economists surveyed by FactSet. On an annual basis, the level was off 228,000, or about 3%.

The ratio of available jobs to unemployed workers was down close to 1.03 to 1 for the month, close to the March level.

Hiring also increased for the month, rising by 169,000 to 5.6 million, while layoffs fell by 196,000 to 1.79 million.

Quits, an indicator of worker confidence in their ability to find another job, edged lower, falling by 150,000 to 3.2 million.

“The labor market is returning to more normal levels despite the uncertainty within the macro outlook,” wrote Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Research. “Underlying patterns in hirings and firings suggest the labor market is holding steady.”

In other economic news Tuesday, the Commerce Department reported that new orders for manufactured goods fell more than expected in April. Orders fell 3.7% on the month, more than the 3.3% Dow Jones forecast and indicative of declining demand after swelling 3.4% in March as businesses sought to get ahead of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

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Economics

Euro zone inflation, May 2025

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Shoppers buy fresh vegetables, fruit, and herbs at an outdoor produce market under green-striped canopies in Regensburg, Upper Palatinate, Bavaria, Germany, on April 19, 2025.

Michael Nguyen/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Euro zone inflation fell below the European Central Bank’s 2% target in May, hitting a cooler-than-expected 1.9% as the services print eased sharply, flash data from statistics agency Eurostat showed Tuesday.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the May reading to come in at 2%, compared to the previous month’s 2.2% figure.

The closely watched services inflation print cooled sharply, amounting to 3.2% last month, compared to the previous 4% reading. So-called core inflation, which excludes energy, food, tobacco and alcohol prices, also eased, falling from 2.7% in April to 2.3% in May.

“May’s steep decline in services inflation, to its lowest level in more than three years, confirms that the previous month’s jump was just an Easter-related blip and that the downward trend in services inflation remains on track,” Jack Allen-Reynolds, deputy chief euro zone economist at Capital Economics said in a note.

Inflation has been moving back towards the 2% mark throughout 2025 amid uncertainty for the euro zone economy.

The latest figures will be considered by the European Central Bank as it prepares to make its next interest rate decision later this week. Markets were last pricing in an around 95% chance of interest rates being cut by a further 25-basis-points on Thursday.

Back in April, the central bank took its key rate, the deposit facility rate, to 2.25% — nearly half of the high of 4% notched in the middle of 2023.

But the global economic outlook remains muddied. U.S. President Donald Trump’s protectionist tariff plans have been casting shadows over the global economic outlook, with his so-called “reciprocal” duties — which are also set to affect the European Union — widely seen as harmful to economic growth. Their immediate potential impact on inflation is less clear, with central bank policymakers and analysts noting that it could depend on any potential countermeasures.

Despite the transatlantic tumult, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development in its latest Economic Outlook report out on Tuesday said it was expecting the euro area to expand by 1% in 2025, unchanged from its previous forecast. Euro area inflation is meanwhile projected to come in at 2.2% this year, also in line with the March report.

Euro country bond yields were last lower after the fresh inflation data, with the German 10-year bond yield falling by over two basis points to 2.499%, while the yield on the French 10-year bond was last down by more than one basis point to 3.169%.

The euro was meanwhile last around 0.3% lower against the dollar.

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U.S. growth forecast cut further by OECD as Trump tariffs sour outlook

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Old Navy and Gap retail stores are seen as people walk through Times Square in New York City on April 9, 2025.

Angela Weiss | Afp | Getty Images

Economic growth forecasts for the U.S. and globally were cut further by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development as President Donald Trump’s tariff turmoil weighs on expectations.

The U.S. growth outlook was downwardly revised to just 1.6% this year and 1.5% in 2026. In March, the OECD was still expecting a 2.2% expansion in 2025.

The fallout from Trump’s tariff policy, elevated economic policy uncertainty, a slowdown of net immigration and a smaller federal workforce were cited as reasons for the latest downgrade.

Global growth, meanwhile, is also expected to be lower than previously forecast, with the OECD saying that “the slowdown is concentrated in the United States, Canada and Mexico,” while other economies are projected to see smaller downward revisions.

“Global GDP growth is projected to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% this year and in 2026 … on the technical assumption that tariff rates as of mid-May are sustained despite ongoing legal challenges,” the OECD said.

It had previously forecast global growth of 3.1% this year and 3% in 2026.

“The global outlook is becoming increasingly challenging,” the report said. “Substantial increases in barriers to trade, tighter financial conditions, weaker business and consumer confidence and heightened policy uncertainty will all have marked adverse effects on growth prospects if they persist.”

Frequent changes regarding tariffs have continued in recent weeks, leading to uncertainty in global markets and economies. Some of the most recent developments include Trump’s reciprocal, country-specific levies being struck down by the U.S. Court of International Trade, before then being reinstated by an appeals court, as well as Trump saying he would double steel duties to 50%.

The OECD adjusted its inflation forecast, saying “higher trade costs, especially in countries raising tariffs, will also push up inflation, although their impact will be offset partially by weaker commodity prices.”

The impact of tariffs on inflation has been hotly debated, with many central bank policymakers and global analysts suggesting it remains unclear how the levies will impact prices, and that much depends on factors like potential countermeasures.

The OECD’s inflation outlook shows a notable difference between the U.S. and some of the world’s other major economies. For instance, while G20 countries are now expected to record 3.6% inflation in 2025 — down from 3.8% in March’s estimate — the projection for the U.S. has risen to 3.2%, up from a previous 2.8%.

U.S. inflation could even be closing in on 4% toward the end of 2025, the OECD said.

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