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The Fed meets with uncertainty permeating the air. Here’s what to expect

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US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the Economic Club of Chicago in Chicago, Illinois, on April 16, 2025.

Kamil Krzaczynski | Afp | Getty Images

The Federal Reserve heads into its closely watched policy decision Wednesday with a strong incentive to do absolutely nothing.

Faced with unresolved questions over President Donald Trump’s tariffs and an economy that is signaling both significant strengths and weaknesses, central bank policymakers can do little for now except sit and wait as events unfold.

“It’s going to be awkward at this meeting. The Fed doesn’t have a forecast to convey anything about the next couple meetings,” said Vincent Reinhart, a former long-time Fed official and now chief economist at BNY Investments. “The Fed’s got to wait for two things: It’s to see that the policy actually goes into place … But then, when it’s demonstrated, it’s got to see how inflation expectations react. So that’s why the Fed’s got to delay, then go slow.”

Indeed, futures market pricing is implying almost no chance of an interest rate cut at this week’s meeting, and only about a 1-in-3 probability of a move at the June 17-18 session, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge.

Most recent Fed Survey shows surging probability of recession

Market expectations have shifted over the past week in response both to mixed economic signals as well as signs that President Donald Trump is getting at least a bit less aggressive in his tariff approach. The White House has signaled that several trade deals are nearing completion, though none have been announced yet.

Reinhart said his firm has two cuts plugged in for this year, a bit tighter of a path than the market expectations for three reductions starting in July. A week ago, markets were betting on as many as four cuts, starting in June.

Direction from Powell

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be left at his post-meeting news conference to explain the thinking from him and his colleagues on where they see policy heading.

“The other unsatisfying part is they don’t know what they’re going to do in June,” Reinhart said. “So he’s going to have to say everything’s on the table. He always says it, but this time, he’s going to have to mean it.”

Powell, though, is sure to face questioning about how policymakers see the recent barrage of data, which has painted a picture of economy loaded with pessimism from consumers and business executives that has yet to feed into hard numbers such as spending and employment.

While gross domestic product fell at a 0.3% annualized rate in the first quarter, it was largely the product of a surge in imports ahead of Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement. The April nonfarm payrolls report showed that hiring continued at a solid pace, with the economy adding a better-than-expected 177,000 jobs for the month.

At the same time, manufacturing and service sector surveys show deep concern about inflation and supply impacts from tariffs. Also, consumer optimism is at multi-year lows while inflation expectations are at multi-decade highs.

It all adds up to a tightrope for Powell and Co. to walk at least through the June meeting.

No ‘dot plot’ this time

“The Fed is going to project in their statement, in their press conference, patience. Wait to see more data,” said Tony Rodriguez, head of fixed income strategy at Nuveen. “Too much uncertainty to act right now, but prepare to act if they begin to see weakness in the employment market.”

Nuveen also expects just two cuts this year and two more next year as the Fed navigates slowing growth and tariff-fueled price increases.

“Our expectation is you’re going to see nothing at this meeting,” Rodriguez said. “They just need to see more hard data, which we don’t think will become really clear until call it June or July. I would think of the September meeting as being the first cut.”

The Fed at this meeting does not update its economic projections nor its “dot plot” of individual member expectations for interest rates. That will come in June. So the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee will be left to tweaks in the post-meeting statement and Powell’s news conference to drop any possible hints of its collective thinking.

“We think it will take a couple of months for enough hard data evidence to accumulate to make the case for a cut,” Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle said in a note. Goldman expects the Fed to cut in July, September and October in an effort to head off economic weakness, which the firm expects to take priority over inflation concerns.

One wild card in the equation: Trump, as he did during his first term, has been urging the Fed to cut rates as inflation edges closer to the central bank’s 2% objective.

However, Reinhart, the BNY economist, does not see the Fed bending to Trump’s will nor breaking ranks despite public statements from some members showing division on policy.

“The White House has done Jay Powell a favor in keeping his committee together. Because generally, when a family is criticized from from the outside, it’s less willing to criticize each other,” Reinhart said. “Do you criticize Jay Powell now and line yourself up the president? Probably not, if you worked your whole life in the Federal Reserve system.”

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Banks keep high rates inspired by now-dead CFPB rule

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The New York Stock Exchange is seen during morning trading on July 31, 2024 in New York City. 

Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Last year, banks quickly raised interest rates to record levels and added new monthly fees on credit cards when a Consumer Financial Protection Bureau rule threatened a key revenue source for the industry.

Now, they’re far more reluctant to reverse those steps, even after bank trade groups succeeded in killing the CFPB rule in federal court last month.

Synchrony and Bread Financial, two of the biggest players in the business of issuing branded credit cards for the likes of Amazon, Lowe’s and Wayfair, are keeping the higher rates in place, executives said in recent conference calls.

“We feel pretty comfortable that the rule has been vacated,” Synchrony CEO Brian Doubles said on April 22. “With that said, we don’t currently have plans to roll anything back in terms of the changes that we made.”

His counterpart at Bread, CEO Ralph Andretta, echoed that sentiment, “At this point, we’re not intending to roll back those changes, and we’ve talked to the partners about that.”

The CEOs celebrated the end of a proposed CFPB regulation that was meant to limit what Americans would pay in credit card late fees, an effort that the industry called a misguided and unlawful example of regulatory overreach. Under previous Director Rohit Chopra, the CFPB estimated that its rule would save families $10 billion annually. Instead, it inadvertently saddled borrowers with higher rates and fees for receiving paper statements as credit card companies sought to offset the expected revenue hit.

Retail cards hit a record high average interest rate of 30.5% last year, according to a Bankrate survey, and rates have stayed close to those levels this year.

“The companies have made a windfall,” said David Silberman, a veteran banking attorney who lectures at Yale Law School. “They didn’t think they needed this revenue before except for [the CFPB rule], and they’re now keeping it, which is coming directly out of the consumer’s pocket.”

Synchrony and Bread both easily topped expectations for first-quarter profit, and analysts covering the companies have raised estimates for what they will earn this year, despite concerns about a looming U.S. economic slowdown.

Retailer lifeline

While store cards occupy a relatively small corner of the overall credit card universe, Americans who are struggling financially are more likely to rely on them, and they are a crucial profit generator for popular American retailers.

There were more than 160 million open retail card accounts last year, the CFPB said in a report from December that highlighted risks to users of the high-interest cards.

More than half of the 100 biggest U.S. retailers offer store cards, and brands including Nordstrom and Macy’s relied on them to generate roughly 8% of gross profits in recent years, the CFPB said.

Banks may be taking advantage of the fact that some users of retail cards don’t have the credit profiles to qualify for general-purpose cards from JPMorgan Chase or American Express, for example, said senior Bankrate analyst Ted Rossman.

Nearly half of all retail card applications are submitted by people with subprime or no credit scores, and the card companies behind them approve applications at a higher rate than for general-purpose cards, the CFPB said.

“Companies like Bread or Synchrony, they rely a lot more on people who carry balances or who pay late fees,” Rossman said.

Rates on retail cards have fallen by less than 1% on average since hitting their 2024 peak, and they are typically about 10 percentage points higher than the rates for general-purpose cards, Rossman said.

That means it’s unlikely that other large players in the retail card sector, including Citigroup and Barclays, have rolled back their rate increases in the wake of the CFPB rule’s demise. The most recent published APR on the Macy’s card, issued by Citigroup, is 33.49%, for instance.

Citigroup and Barclays representatives declined to comment for this article.

Debt spirals

Synchrony’s CEO gave some clues as to why banks aren’t eager to roll back the hikes: borrowers either didn’t seem to notice the higher rates, or didn’t feel like they had a choice.

Retail cards are typically advertised online or at the checkout of brick-and-mortar retailers, and often lure users with promotional discounts or rewards points.

“We didn’t see a big reduction in accounts or spend related to the actions” they took last year, Doubles told analysts. “We did a lot of test and control around that.”

Synchrony will discuss future possible changes to its card program with its brand partners, according to a spokeswoman for the Stamford, Connecticut-based bank. That could include bumping up promotional offers at specific retailers, Doubles said during the April conference call.

Brian Doubles, Synchrony President

Synchrony Financial

“Our goal remains to provide access to financial solutions that provide flexibility, utility, and meaningful value to the diverse range of customers, partners, providers, and small and midsized businesses we serve,” Synchrony said in a statement.

A Bread spokesperson declined to comment for this article.

Alaina Fingal, a New Orleans-based financial coach, said she often advises people who’ve been trapped in a debt spiral from using retail credit cards. Some have to take on side gigs, like driving for Uber Eats, to work down the balances, she said.

“They do not understand the terms, and there are a lot of promotional offers that may have deferred interest clauses that are in there,” Fingal said. “It’s extremely predatory.”

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Trump shifts tariff goals from trade deals

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U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney (not pictured) in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 6, 2025.

Leah Millis | Reuters

“The Art of the Deal” author President Donald Trump said in a surprising comment Tuesday that the United States does not need to “sign deals” with trade partners, despite top White House officials claiming for weeks that such deals are the administration’s top priority.

“Everyone says, ‘when, when, when are you going to sign deals?'” Trump grumbled during a White House meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.

“We don’t have to sign deals, they have to sign deals with us. They want a piece of our market. We don’t want a piece of their market,” Trump said.

After weeks of touting how many countries were asking for bilateral trade talks with the United States, the president and his team have yet to announce any formal agreements or frameworks.

“I wish they’d … stop asking, how many deals are you signing this week?” said Trump, clearly frustrated at the mounting pressure on the White House to show progress on trade talks. “Because one day we’ll come and we’ll give you 100 deals,” he said.

Read more CNBC politics coverage

Trump’s effort to deprioritize trade deals Tuesday marked a turn away from what his Treasury Secretary told CNBC the day before.

The U.S. is “very close to some deals,” Scott Bessent said on “Money Movers.”

Trump himself said Sunday on Air Force One that there “could very well be” trade deals rolled out this week. “At the end, I’m setting the deal,” he told reporters en route to Washington.

Speaking last week during a NewsNation town hall, Trump also said that his administration has “potential deals” with India, South Korea and Japan.

He also said last week that negotiations with India were “coming along great” and the U.S. will “likely have a deal with India.”

On Tuesday, however, Trump blamed top aides like Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick for overpromising trade deals.

“I think my people haven’t made it clear, we will sign some deals,” said Trump. “But much bigger than that is we’re going to put down the price that people are going to have to pay to shop in the United States. Think of us as a super luxury store, a store that has the goods.”

U.S. markets moved lower Tuesday afternoon after Trump made the comments about deals.

Investors and business leaders are desperately hoping the Trump administration can negotiate a series of bilateral agreements with major U.S. trading partners like Japan, South Korea and India before the full brunt of the tariff induced trade slowdown hits the U.S. economy.

But so far, the Trump administration has not provided any details about any specific deals. Instead, nearly every day, top aides publicly claim that several deals are “close” and could be announced within days.

Peter Navarro: White House moving 'as fast as possible' on India trade deal

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