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Bulgaria is set to join the euro zone. Its citizens aren’t convinced

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A person beats a drum with the euro logo crossed out in red on the drumhead during a demonstration against Bulgaria entering the Eurozone in Sofia on May 31, 2025.

Nikolay Doychinov | Afp | Getty Images

Bulgaria is set to become the 21st member of the euro zone after receiving sign off from the European Commission and European Central Bank last week — but not everyone is convinced the move is a good idea.

Bulgaria’s Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov, member of the center-right GERB party, has made joining the euro zone a priority, arguing that it would boost economic stability and growth.

However, fears of higher prices and a loss of independence have stoked nationalist-party fueled protests against the country’s euro ascension. A recent European Union survey showed that half of Bulgaria’s population is against adopting the euro.

Economists and experts weighed in on the potential risks to Bulgaria joining the euro, outlining what the eastern European country could lose and gain from the move.

Inflation and interest rates

“The most immediate concern is a spike in prices during the currency switch, as some businesses may round up prices. Many Bulgarians worry that eurozone membership could erode their purchasing power, especially in poorer rural areas,” Valentin Tataru, an economist at ING who covers Bulgaria, told CNBC.

Nevertheless, he also noted Bulgaria’s currency has long had a fixed exchange rate to the euro and therefore, “the transitional inflation bump should be mild.”

A worker counts Bulgarian Lev banknotes at a store in Sofia, Bulgaria, on Friday, March 29, 2024.

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The second key concern is what giving up Bulgaria’s currency, the lev, will mean for the country’s independence and sovereignty — ideals for which it has become symbolic according to Andrius Tursa, central and eastern Europe advisor at Teneo.

“Its replacement with the euro may be perceived by parts of the population as a loss of national control,” he told CNBC. In addition there are concerns about relinquishing control of monetary policy as countries in the euro zone are subject to decisions by the ECB, Tursa added.

The Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) would for example no longer solely be responsible for setting the country’s interest rates based only on how its individual economy is developing.

However, “eurozone countries benefit from lower interest rates due to the credibility of the ECB and reduced currency risk,” Tursa pointed out. Lower interest rates typically benefit borrowers as loans and mortgages become more affordable.

Economic stability and power

Joining the euro zone and securing oversight from the ECB could boost economic stability and growth prospects for Bulgaria, Jasmin Groeschl, senior economist for Europe at Allianz SE, told CNBC.

Foreign investment could for example increase, she suggested, and the country’s gross domestic product would be expected to be boosted by euro zone membership.

“Deeper financial integration would strengthen Bulgaria’s financial system under the ECB’s oversight, enhancing monetary stability,” Groeschl explained. “Adopting the euro would strengthen Bulgaria’s ties with the EU, enhancing its influence and credibility,” she added.

Key areas that underpin the economy like trade and tourism could also be supported, Teneo’s Tursa said.

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Many of Bulgaria’s key trading partners are in the EU, with most of its exports going to members of the 27-state bloc in 2023 according to data from the country’s statistics office. Key sectors include machinery and transport equipment, manufactured goods and food.

Tourism has meanwhile become a major contributor to the economy as Bulgaria positions itself as both a summer and winter destination. Over 13 million foreigners visited the country in 2024, official statistics showed.

“Bulgaria’s accession to the eurozone would facilitate trade and tourism flows with other eurozone countries by eliminating the costs and burden associated with currency conversion,” Tursa said, adding that this would be particularly important due to Bulgaria’s strong integration into EU supply chains.

Political tensions

One risk flagged by the economists and analysts are the political tensions surrounding Bulgaria’s euro adoption.

“Public opposition to euro adoption has already triggered notable protests, and in the medium term, the issue could become a key driver of rising support for populist and Euroskeptic political movements,” Teneo’s Tursa explained.

But despite local protests and concerns about euro zone ascension, at least in the long term the benefits for the country outweigh any negatives, Allianz SE’s Groeschl argued.

“The trade-off involves losing some economic autonomy in exchange for deeper integration,” she said. “Although Bulgaria would lose some monetary policy control and be subject to strict fiscal rules, the advantages of greater economic stability, reduced transaction costs and stronger integration with the EU market would typically outweigh these disadvantages.”

ING’s Tataru struck a similar tone, saying that because the lev is already tied to the euro, there should not be a major shock.

“Joining the euro is one of the most strategic steps Bulgaria can take to secure long-term prosperity and deeper European integration,” he said.

Economics

UK exports to the U.S. plunge by most on record as tariffs bite

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Container ships at Felixstowe port in Felixstowe, UK, on Wednesday, April 9, 2025.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

U.K. goods exported to the U.S. dropped by £2 billion ($2.71 billion) in April, figures published by the Office for National Statistics on Thursday showed, marking the biggest monthly decrease since records began in 1997.

The value of Britain’s exports stateside was the lowest since February 2022 at £4.1 billion, with the ONS saying the shift was “likely linked to the implementation of tariffs on goods imported to the United States.” Cars, chemicals and metals exports all saw declines, the ONS said.

U.S. imports to the U.K. dipped by £400 million for the month to £4.7 billion, taking Washington back to a trade surplus in goods with the country for the first time since May 2024.

The U.K. and U.S. announced the outline of a trade deal at the start of May, but the agreement still imposed 10% blanket tariffs on British goods sent stateside and has not yet been fully implemented. U.S. President Donald’s Trump’s universal 25% duties on steel and aluminum are set to be slashed to zero for the U.K., while up to 100,000 British cars a year will be hit with a rate of 10% rather than 25%, but higher tariffs remain in force while final details of the deal are confirmed.

Trump has looked relatively favorably upon the U.K. during his second presidency while he has slammed other key trading partners such as the European Union. That’s in part because of his friendly relations with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, but primarily because the U.K.-U.S. trade relationship in goods has historically been relatively balanced.

Overall, the U.K.’s trade deficit in goods rose by £4.4 billion to £60 billion in the three months to April, while its trade surplus in services dipped by £500 million to £48.5 billion.

That took the U.K.’s overall trade deficit to £11.5 billion from £6.6 billion.

U.K.Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves leaves 10 Downing Street ahead of PMQs in the House of Commons in London, United Kingdom on June 11, 2025.

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The ONS noted in its release that monthly trade data could be “erratic” and that its next data set would account for the subsequently-agreed trade deal.

Figures also published by the ONS on Thursday showed the U.K. economy contracted by 0.3% in April, below the 0.1% expected by economists polled by Reuters. The U.K.’s dominant services sector was a weak point, shrinking 0.4%, while construction output increased by 0.9%.

It follows signs of a weakening U.K. labor market out earlier in the week, with job vacancies down 7.9%, and the employment rate rising to 4.6% from 4.5%. The rate of wage growth eased to 5.3% from 5.6%, with markets subsequently fully pricing in another half-percentage-point interest rate from the Bank of England before the end of the year.

Business sentiment remains on edge, due to tariffs and macroeconomic uncertainty, and because of government policies including a minimum wage hike, new worker protections and higher tax rates for employees.

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Sanjay Raja, chief U.K. economist at Deutsche Bank, said the U.K. economy was “always on a collision course for a course correction after a super strong start to the year.”

Growth hit 0.7% in the first quarter, accelerating from 0.1% growth in the final quarter of 2024.

“While headwinds in April will likely soften in the coming months, they won’t dissipate fully. Despite the U.K.’s trade deal with the US, trade uncertainty is here to stay. The labor market continues to loosen too, which will weigh on household spending. And monetary policy remains restrictive, which will also drag on output,” Raja said in a note.

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Economics

The meaning of the protests in Los Angeles

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THE MOOD changed by the moment. On June 8th a woman hugged her two young daughters on a bridge overlooking the 101 freeway in downtown Los Angeles. Vendors sold Mexican flags and protesters adjusted the rhythms of their chants. “Move ICE get out the way” morphed into “Donald Trump, let’s be clear, immigrants are welcome here”. It felt like a neighbourhood block party—if block parties encouraged graffiti. But chants turned to screams as police exploded flash-bang grenades to clear the road. The two young girls grimaced and hustled away. California Highway Patrol officers paced in riot gear, their less-lethal weapons aimed at the crowd. Some protesters lobbed bottles at police, who dodged the projectiles. Nearby, several Waymo driverless cars were set aflame.

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Economics

U.S. budget deficit hit $316 billion in May, with annual shortfall up 14% from a year ago

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The U.S. Department of the Treasury building is seen in Washington, D.C., Jan. 19, 2023.

Saul Loeb | Afp | Getty Images

The U.S. government drifted further into red ink during May, with a burgeoning debt and deficit issue getting worse, the Treasury Department reported Wednesday.

After running a short-lived surplus in April thanks to tax season receipts, the deficit totaled just over $316 billion for the month, taking the year-to-date total to $1.36 trillion.

The annual tally was 14% higher than a year ago, though the May 2025 total was 9% less than the May 2024 shortfall.

Surging financing costs were again a major contributor to fiscal issues, with interest on the $36.2 trillion debt topping $92 billion. Interest expenses on net exceeded all other outlays except for Medicare and Social Security. Debt financing is expected to run above $1.2 trillion for this fiscal year, totaling $776 billion through the first eight months of the fiscal year.

Tax revenue has not been the problem. Receipts rose 15% in May and are up 6% from a year ago. Expenditures increased 2% monthly and are up 8% from a year ago.

Tariff collections also helped offset some of the shortfall. Gross customs duties for the month totaled $23 billion, up from $6 from the same month a year ago. For the year, gross tariff collections have totaled $86 billion, up 59% from the same period in 2024.

However, yields have held higher — after dipping last summer into September, they turned up in direct opposition to Federal Reserve rate cuts, eased in the early part of the year, then moved higher again following President Donald Trump’s April 2 “liberation day” tariff announcement. The 10-year Treasury yield is virtually unchanged from a year ago around 4.4%.

In recent weeks, Wall Street leaders including JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio have warned of turmoil that could come from the onerous debt burden. The deficit is currently running more than 6% of gross domestic product, virtually unheard of in peacetime U.S. economies.

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