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Economy grew at a 2.8% pace

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U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% pace in the second quarter, much more than expected

Economic activity in the U.S. was considerably stronger than expected during the second quarter, boosted by a strong consumer, government spending and a sizeable inventory build, according to an initial estimate Thursday from the Commerce Department.

Real gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services produced during the April-through-June period, increased at a 2.8% annualized pace adjusted for seasonality and inflation. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for growth of 2.1% following a 1.4% rise in the first quarter.

Consumer spending helped propel the growth number higher, as did contributions from private inventory investment and nonresidential fixed investment, according to the first of three estimates the department will provide.

Personal consumption expenditures, the main proxy in the Bureau of Economic Analysis report for consumer activity, increased 2.3% for the quarter, up from the 1.5% acceleration in Q1. Both services and goods spending saw solid increases for the quarter.

Inventories also were a significant contributor, adding 0.82 percentage point to the total gain. Government spending added a tailwind as well, rising 3.9% at the federal level, including a 5.2% surge in defense outlays.

On the downside, imports, which subtract from GDP, jumped 6.9%, the biggest quarterly rise since Q1 of 2022. Exports were up just 2%.

Stock market futures drifted higher following the report while Treasury yields moved lower.

“The composition of growth was one of the better mixes that we have observed in some time,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. The report “tends to support the idea that the American economy is in the midst of a productivity boom which over the medium term will lift living standards across the country via lower inflation, low employment and rising real wages.”

There was some good news on the inflation front: the personal consumption expenditures price index, a key measure for the Federal Reserve, increased 2.6% for the quarter, down from the 3.4% move in Q1. Excluding food and energy, core PCE prices, which the Fed focuses on even more as a longer-term inflation indicator, were up 2.9%, compared to a 3.7% increase in the prior period.

The so-called chain-weighted price index, which takes into account changes in consumer behavior, increased 2.3% for the quarter, below the 2.6% estimate.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen saw the GDP report as “affirming the path we’re on to steady growth and declining inflation,” in remarks she delivered Thursday morning in Rio de Janeiro.

Former St. Louis Fed President: Probability of a recession isn't any higher now than ordinary times

One other key variable, final sales to private domestic purchasers, which the Fed considers a good indicator of underlying demand, accelerated at a 2.6% pace, the same as in the prior quarter.

However, the report also indicated that the personal savings rate continues to decelerate, at 3.5% for the quarter, compared with 3.8% in Q1.

There have been signs of cracks lately in the consumer picture.

A report Wednesday from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve showed credit card delinquencies at an all-time high according to data going back to 2012. Revolving debt balances also reached a new high even as banks reported tightening credit standards and declining new card originations.

However, retail sales numbers have continued to climb indicating that consumers are weathering the headwinds of high interest rates and persistent inflation.

There also is pressure in the housing market: Sales are declining while home prices continue to rise, putting stress on first-time homebuyers.

Federal Reserve officials are expected to hold interest rates steady when they meet next week, though market pricing is pointing to the first cut in four years in September. Policymakers have been circumspect about when they might start reducing rates, though recent comments indicate more of a willingness to start easing policy and most central bankers have said they see further increases as unlikely.

In other economic news Thursday, the Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims totaled 235,000 for the week ended July 20, down 10,000 from the previous week and exactly in line with the Dow Jones forecast. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, edged lower to 1.85 million.

Also, orders for durable goods — generally big-ticket items such as aircraft, appliances and computers — unexpectedly fell 6.6% in June, compared with the forecast for a 0.3% increase. However, excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5%.

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UK inflation September 2024

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The Canary Wharf business district is seen in the distance behind autumnal leaves on October 09, 2024 in London, United Kingdom.

Dan Kitwood | Getty Images News | Getty Images

LONDON — Inflation in the U.K. dropped sharply to 1.7% in September, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the headline rate to come in at a higher 1.9% for the month, in the first dip of the print below the Bank of England’s 2% target since April 2021.

Inflation has been hovering around that level for the last four months, and came in at 2.2% in August.

Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, came in at 3.2% for the month, down from 3.6% in August and below the 3.4% forecast of a Reuters poll.

Price rises in the services sector, the dominant portion of the U.K. economy, eased significantly to 4.9% last month from 5.6% in August, now hitting its lowest rate since May 2022.

Core and services inflation are key watch points for Bank of England policymakers as they mull whether to cut interest rates again at their November meeting.

As of Wednesday morning, market pricing put an 80% probability on a November rate cut ahead of the latest inflation print. Analysts on Tuesday said lower wage growth reported by the ONS this week had supported the case for a cut. The BOE reduced its key rate by 25 basis points in August before holding in September.

Within the broader European region, inflation in the euro zone dipped below the European Central Bank’s 2% target last month, hitting 1.8%, according to the latest data.

This is a breaking news story and will be updated shortly.

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Why Larry Hogan’s long-odds bid for a Senate seat matters

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FEW REPUBLICAN politicians differ more from Donald Trump than Larry Hogan, the GOP Senate candidate in Maryland. Consider the contrasts between a Trump rally and a Hogan event. Whereas Mr Trump prefers to take the stage and riff in front of packed arenas, Mr Hogan spent a recent Friday night chatting with locals at a waterfront wedding venue in Baltimore County. Mr Hogan’s stump speech, at around ten minutes, felt as long as a single off-script Trump tangent. Mr Trump delights in defying his advisers; Mr Hogan fastidiously sticks to talking points about bipartisanship, good governance and overcoming tough odds. Put another way, Mr Hogan’s campaign is something Mr Trump is rarely accused of being: boring. But it is intriguing.

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Polarisation by education is remaking American politics

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DEPENDING ON where exactly you find yourself, western Pennsylvania can feel Appalachian, Midwestern, booming or downtrodden. No matter where, however, this part of the state feels like the centre of the American political universe. Since she became the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Kamala Harris has visited Western Pennsylvania six times—more often than Philadelphia, on the other side of the state. She will mark her seventh on a trip on October 14th, to the small city of Erie, where Donald Trump also held a rally recently. Democratic grandees flit through Pittsburgh regularly. It is where Ms Harris chose to unveil the details of her economic agenda, and it is where Barack Obama visited on October 10th to deliver encouragement and mild chastisement. “Do not just sit back and hope for the best,” he admonished. “Get off your couch and vote.”

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