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January home prices show steady annual gain, but month-to-month comparison tells another tale: Case-Shiller

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Home prices hold steady, but more supply could help buyers. (iStock)

Home prices recorded another gain in January, but a month-to-month comparison showed values losing some ground, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices report.

Home prices are now 6% above their level this time last year, up from 5.6% last month. The 10-city composite increased by 7.4% annually, up from 7% the previous month. At the same time, the 20-city composite posted a rise of 6.6%, up from 6.2% the previous month. 

Month-to-month, home prices struggled because of high mortgage rates and a lack of housing supply. While the 10-city composite registered no growth,  the 20-city composite decreased by 0.1%—the indices measure home prices in major metros across the country.   

“Homeowners most likely saw healthy gains in the last year, no matter what city you were in, or if it was in an expensive or inexpensive neighborhood,” S&P Dow Jones Indices Head of Commodities Brian Luke said. “No matter which way you slice it, the index performance closely resembled the broad market.”

“On a monthly basis, home prices continue to struggle in the face of elevated borrowing costs,” Luke continued. “Seventeen markets dropped over the last month, while Minneapolis has posted a 2.4% decline over the prior three months.”

One way to use your home’s equity is through a cash-out refinance to help you pay down debt or fund home improvement projects. Visit Credible to find your personalized interest rate without affecting your credit score.

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Spring home buying options improve

Spring buying will likely be tamed by still-too-high borrowing costs and limited housing inventory, two factors that have helped prop home prices up. However, improving for-sale options and the promise of an interest rate cut sometime in the summer mean relief is on the way.

At its latest meeting, the Federal Reserve said it would continue to monitor inflation and other economic indicators to determine when to lower rates. Market expectations are that the first rate cut will come in the summer, if not later in the year. 

Meanwhile, housing inventory is improving. In February, housing starts climbed 5.9% year-over-year and home completions were 10.7% higher annually, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau, signaling potentially more home options in coming months. 

Overall, housing supply has improved, as the number of homes for sale increased by 14.8% compared to last year and grew for the fourth straight month, according to a report by Realtor.com.  

“While elevated mortgage rates continued to freeze housing market activity over the winter, an unthawing is in sight, with improvements in for-sale inventory offering more opportunities for potential buyers across the country,” CoreLogic Chief Economist Selma Hepp said. “With spring’s arrival, home prices are likely to show a seasonal uptick, although the annual acceleration in gains will slow compared with the strong 2023 spring. Nevertheless, more inventory is a welcome development and suggests that some normalization in the U.S. housing market lies ahead.”  

Homebuyers can find the best mortgage rate by shopping around and comparing your options. You can visit an online marketplace like Credible to compare rates, choose your loan term and get preapproved with multiple lenders at once.

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Biden’s initiatives help build supply

A new initiative recently launched by President Joe Biden to improve affordability and supply issues could help increase demand for housing in the current high-rate environment. Biden has called on Congress to invest more than $175 billion in affordable housing initiatives, according to a White House statement

In his State of the Union address earlier this month, Biden called on Congress to create legislation giving a $10,000 tax credit to first-time homebuyers and those who sell their starter homes. This move would help middle-class Americans cope with higher borrowing costs while incentivizing existing homeowners to sell more homes.

“Home price growth will likely not surge going into the Spring home buying season, as home sales are fairly stagnant at this moment,” Max Slyusarchuk, CEO of A&D Mortgage said. “We do believe rates will begin to drop in the second half of the year, and that will help pick up home sales, which will be buoyed by stable home values.” 

If you are looking to take advantage of the current mortgage rates by refinancing your mortgage loan or are ready to shop for the best rate on a new mortgage, consider visiting an online marketplace like Credible to compare rates and get preapproved with multiple lenders at once.

THIS IS THE #1 CITY FOR FIRST-TIME HOMEBUYERS, AND OTHER HOT US HOUSING MARKETS

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Investors are piling into big, short Treasury bets with Warren Buffett

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How bond ETFs are performing during the market volatility

Investors always pay close attention to bonds, and what the latest movement in prices and yields is saying about the economy. Right now, the action is telling investors to stick to the shorter-end of the fixed-income market with their maturities.

“There’s lots of concern and volatility, but on the short and middle end, we’re seeing less volatility and stable yields,” Joanna Gallegos, CEO and founder of bond ETF company BondBloxx, said on CNBC’s “ETF Edge.”

The 3-month T-Bill right now is paying above 4.3%, annualized. The two-year is paying 3.9% while the 10-year is offering about 4.4%. 

ETF flows in 2025 show that it’s the ultrashort opportunity that is attracting the most investors. The iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV) and SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 T-Bill ETF (BIL) are both among the top 10 ETFs in investor flows this year, taking in over $25 billion in assets. Only Vanguard Group’s S&P 500 ETF (VOO) has taken in more new money from investors this year than SGOV, according to ETFAction.com data. Vanguard’s Short Term Bond ETF (BSV) is not far behind, with over $4 billion in flows this year, placing with the top 20 among all ETFs in year-to-date flows.

“Long duration just doesn’t work right now” said Todd Sohn, senior ETF and technical strategist at Strategas Securities, on “ETF Edge.”

It would seem that Warren Buffett agrees, with Berkshire Hathaway doubling its ownership of T-bills and now owning 5% of all short-term Treasuries, according to a JPMorgan report. 

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Investors including Warren Buffett have been piling into short term Treasuries.

“The volatility has been on the long end,” Gallegos said. “The 20-year has gone from negative to positive five times so far this year,” she added.

The bond volatility comes nine months after the Fed’s began cutting rates, a campaign it has since paused amid concerns about the potential for resurgent inflation due to tariffs. Broader market concerns about government spending and deficit levels, especially with a major tax cut bill on the horizon, have added to bond market jitters

Long-term treasuries and long-term corporate bonds have posted negative performance since September, which is very rare, according to Sohn. “The only other time that’s happened in modern times was during the financial crisis,” he said. “It is hard to argue against short term duration bonds right now,” he added. 

Sohn is advising clients to steer clear of anything with a duration of longer than seven years, which has a yield in the 4.1% range right now.

Gallegos says she is concerned that amid the bond market volatility, investors aren’t paying enough attention to fixed income as part of their portfolio mix. “My fear is investors are not diversifying their portfolios with bonds today, and investors still have an equity addiction to concentrated broad-based indexes that are overweight certain tech names. They get used to these double-digit returns,” she said. 

Volatility in the stock market has been high this year as well. The S&P 500 rose to record levels in February, before falling 20%, hitting a low in April, and then reversing all of those losses more recently. While bonds are an important component of long-term investing to shield a portfolio from stock corrections, Sohn said now is also a time for investors to look beyond the United States with their equity positions. 

“International equities are contributing to portfolios like they haven’t done in a decade” he said. “Last year was Japanese equities, this year it is European equities. Investors don’t have to be loaded up on U.S. large cap growth right now,” he said.

The iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF (EZU) is up 25% so far this year.  The iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) Japan ETF is up 25% over the last two years. 

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