Personal Finance
Here’s the inflation breakdown for August 2024 — in one chart
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Inflation continued to throttle back in August, signaling that the fast-rising prices that plagued the U.S. economy for the better part of the three years during the pandemic era are increasingly shifting into the rearview mirror.
Overall inflationary pressures are “dissipating,” said Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo Economics.
The consumer price index — which measures how fast prices are changing across the U.S. economy — rose 2.5% in August from a year ago, the U.S. Department of Labor reported Wednesday.
That figure is down from 2.9% in July and is the lowest reading since February 2021.
There are still some pockets of potential concern, however, with housing perhaps the most troubling among them, economists said. But prices for staples like groceries and gasoline have normalized and the inflationary trend appears firmly to the downside, they said.
“We’d expect inflation to continue to subside,” though with “some ups and downs” in the data from month to month, House said.
‘Tamed’ but not ‘vanquished’
The August inflation reading is down significantly from the 9.1% pandemic-era peak in mid-2022, which was the highest level since 1981.
It’s also nearing policymakers’ long-term target of around 2%.
“Overall, inflation appears to have been successfully tamed but, with housing inflation still refusing to moderate as quickly as hoped, it hasn’t been completely vanquished,” Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note Wednesday morning.
With that in mind, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting interest rates this month as its focus shifts from tackling inflation to averting recession in the face of a cooling job market.
The central bank raised rates to their highest level in 23 years during the pandemic era, pushing up borrowing costs for consumers and businesses in a bid to tame inflation.
Both House and Ashworth expect the Fed to cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point at its upcoming policy meeting next week.
Housing inflation is falling but still high
Inflation for physical goods spiked as the U.S. economy reopened in 2021.
The Covid-19 pandemic disrupted supply chains, while Americans spent more on their homes and less on services such as dining out and entertainment. Supply shortages coincided with higher consumer demand.
Services inflation — which is generally more sensitive to labor costs — also jumped, partly influenced by a historically hot labor market as employers clamored for workers when the economy reopened, economists said.
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Housing, which is counted in the “services” category, has been a big impediment to overall inflation falling to the Fed’s target, economists said.
Shelter is largest component of the CPI, and therefore has an outsized effect on inflation readings.
The shelter index has risen 5.2% since August 2023, accounting for more than 70% of the annual increase in the “core” CPI, the BLS said Wednesday. (The core CPI is economists’ preferred gauge of inflation trends. It strips out food and energy costs, which can be volatile.)
Housing inflation moves up and down at glacial speed due to how the government measures it, economists said.
Such data quirks mask positive news in the real-time rental market, which has seen minimal inflation for about two years, economists said. Average rents actually deflated (meaning prices actually fell) by 1% in the second quarter of 2024 versus a year earlier, according to the BLS New Tenant Rent Index.
However, shelter CPI inflation has appeared to defy gravity lately: It increased on a monthly basis for two consecutive months, from 0.2% in June to 0.4% in July, and then to 0.5% in August.
“It’s puzzling, in all honesty,” House said. “[But] I’m of the view that we should continue to see shelter decelerate” given broader trends in the rental market.
Other ‘notable’ categories
More broadly, other categories with “notable increases” over the past year include motor vehicle insurance (prices are up 16.5% from August 2023), medical care (up 3%), recreation (up 1.6%) and education (3.1%), the BLS said.
A surge in new and used car prices a few years ago is likely now fueling high inflation for car insurance premiums and vehicle repair, since it generally costs more to insure and repair pricier cars, economists said.
Insurance inflation should ultimately fade alongside falling car prices, they said. New vehicle prices are down about 1% over the past year, and those for used cars and trucks have declined more than 10%.
Egg prices — which had surged in 2022 due to a historic outbreak of bird flu — are rising again following a reemergence of the deadly disease. They’re up 28% from a year ago.
Overall annual grocery inflation was less than 1% in August, down from an average 11.4% in 2022, which was the highest since 1979.
Gasoline prices are also down about 10% over the past year.
Americans are growing increasingly uneasy about the state of the U.S. economy and their own personal financial situation in the face of stubborn inflation and tariff wars.
To that point, 73% of respondents said they are “financially stressed,” with 66% of that group pointing to the tariff wars as a main source, according to a new CNBC/Survey Monkey online poll.
The survey of 4,200 U.S. adults was conducted April 3 to 7.
Americans feeling financially stressed
CNBC/Survey Monkey polls from 2023, 2024, and this year have found that, on average, more than 70% of Americans said that they are stressed about their personal finances. This year’s survey found that 38% of respondents overall said they are “very stressed,” and 29% of high-earners with incomes of $100,000 or more also shared that sentiment.
Consumers are, of course, increasingly stressed by rising prices for essentials like food, energy, and shelter. This is due to a number of factors, including rising inflation, supply chain disruptions and geopolitical events.
In the new CNBC survey, 86% of Americans cite inflation as the top reason for their financial stress, while 75% pointed to interest rates and 66% cited tariffs.
While inflation peaked at 8% in 2022, a 40-year high, it has since cooled significantly, reaching 2.4% in March. Despite this decline, the increased prices during 2022 have led to a loss of purchasing power for Americans, meaning they can buy less with the same amount of money than before.
It would take nearly $114 today to buy what would have cost $100 in January of 2022, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
And while Inflation has eased, experts do say the fallout from President Trump’s trade war threatens to put upward pressure on prices in the months to come.
Tariffs are generally considered to be inflationary, economists say. This is because tariffs increase the cost of imported goods, which can then be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. This can lead to a temporary increase in the overall inflation rate.
“We know that tariffs are inflationary,” said David McWilliams, an economist, podcaster and author. “We know that’s hitting on people’s expectations of how much money they’re going to have in their pocket in a couple of months time.”
So, when it comes to financial stress caused by tariffs, 59% of those surveyed by CNBC oppose President Trump’s tariff policy, with 72% concerned about the impact on their personal financial situation.
As a result, 32% said they have delayed or avoided making retail purchases, and 15% said they have “stocked up.”
What’s more, 34% of those surveyed said they have made changes to their investments due to recent stock market volatility from tariffs.
Handling financial stress
Many investors are concerned about their retirement savings, but financial experts say it’s important for those with a long-term perspective to understand that short-term market volatility is a distraction that’s better off ignored.
“The biggest thing is that it’s unknown, and when we don’t know things, and we can’t control things, that’s when our anxiety and our worry can spike, and it’s contagious,” said licensed therapist and executive coach George James, CNBC Global Financial Wellness Advisory Board member, a licensed therapist and executive coach.
While the market could be in for a bumpy ride over the next few months, experts say it’s best to stay the course and avoid making major portfolio changes based on the latest news.
To manage investments during the latest tariff volatility, for example, financial advisors urge investors to maintain a long-term perspective, review and potentially adjust their asset allocation, and consider diversification to mitigate risk. It’s also smart to bolster emergency funds, review your risk tolerance, and explore opportunities for tax-loss harvesting.
Financial experts also urge investors to focus on their risk appetite — and their goals.
“This is the time to evaluate short-, mid-, and long-term financial needs, concerns, and goals. Evaluation before action or inaction is essential,” said Michael Liersch, head of advice and planning at Wells Fargo, said in an e-mail to CNBC. “Getting specific on exact dollar targets, timelines around these targets, and their level of importance [priority] can create clarity around what should be done, if anything.”
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As investors digest the latest bond market sell-off, advisors have tips about portfolio allocation amid continued market volatility.
Typically, investors flock to fixed income like U.S. Treasurys when there’s economic turmoil. The opposite happened this week with a sharp sell-off of U.S. government bonds, which dropped bond prices as yields soared. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.
Treasury yields then retreated Wednesday afternoon when President Donald Trump temporarily dropped tariffs to 10% for most countries but increased levies on Chinese goods. That duty now stands at 145%.
As of Thursday afternoon, Treasury yields were down slightly.
Still, “there’s a massive amount of uncertainty,” Kent Smetters, a professor of business economics and public policy at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, told CNBC.
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Experts closely watch the 10-year Treasury yield because it’s tied to borrowing rates for products like mortgages, credit cards and auto loans. The yield climbed above 4.5% overnight on Tuesday as investors offloaded the asset. As of Thursday afternoon, the 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.4%.
Kevin Hassett, director of the U.S. National Economic Council, told CNBC on Thursday that bond market volatility likely added “a little more urgency” to Trump’s tariff decision.
As some investors question their bond allocations, here’s what advisors are telling their clients.
Take the ‘proactive approach’
Despite the latest bond market sell-off, there hasn’t been a recent shift in client portfolios for certified financial planner Lee Baker, owner of Apex Financial Services in Atlanta.
“I’ve been taking a proactive approach” by shifting allocations early based on the threat of future tariffs, said Baker, who is also a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council.
With concerns about future inflation triggered by tariffs, Baker has increased client allocations of Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS, which can provide a hedge against rising prices.
Consider ‘guardrails’
Ivory Johnson, a CFP and founder of Delancey Wealth Management in Washington, D.C., has also been defensive with client portfolios.
“I’ve used instruments to give me guardrails,” such as buffer exchange-traded funds to limit losses while capping upside potential, said Johnson, who is also a member of CNBC’s FA Council.
Buffer ETFs use options contracts to provide a pre-defined range of outcomes over a set period. The funds are tied to an underlying index, such as the S&P 500. These assets typically have higher fees than traditional ETFs.
Take a ‘temperature check’
With future stock market volatility expected, investors should revisit risk tolerance and portfolio allocations, Baker said.
“This is a good time for a temperature check,” he said.
Market turmoil has happened before and will happen again. If you can’t stomach the latest drawdowns — in stocks or bonds — this is a chance to shift to more conservative holdings, Baker said.
“We’re not selling because I’m concerned about the market,” he added. “I’m concerned about comfort level.”
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