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China’s Golden Week holiday signals persistent consumer caution

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Passengers line up to check in at Chengdu Tianfu International Airport on October 6, 2024 as China’s week-long National Day holiday draws to a close.

China News Service | China News Service | Getty Images

BEIJING — China’s Golden Week holiday affirmed a trend in more cautious spending, while consumers put greater emphasis on experiences.

The seven-day public holiday that ended Monday recorded about 2% less spending per domestic trip than the pre-pandemic level, according to Goldman Sachs analysis published Tuesday.

“Low tourism spending per head and subdued services prices highlighted still weak domestic demand and continued consumption downgrading,” the analysts said.

The decline was an improvement from a gap of more than 10% during holidays in the spring, the Goldman report said.

The Golden Week holiday in China commemorates the founding of the People’s Republic of China on Oct. 1. It is the last public holiday of the year for the country.

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Nearly one-fifth of bookings on Trip.com for the holiday came from users ages 20 to 25, making them the main consumer group, the company said. It noted more than 90 concerts were held during the holiday, and that daily growth in orders for performances and exhibitions grew by an average of more than 80% during the period.

However, a lack of blockbusters resulted in a drop in box office earnings, to 2.1 billion yuan ($300 million) this year, from 2.7 billion yuan last year, according to state media, citing the China Film Administration.

Consumers were also more spontaneous.

Trip.com said nearly 30% of travelers booked travel on the same day, or one day in advance, a 6 percentage point increase from last year. The average number of days customers booked in advance fell to 6 days this year, down from 6.8 days last year, the company said.

The holiday this year followed a flurry of policy announcements and promises, and a stock market surge. Consumer spending in China has been lackluster since the pandemic due to uncertainty about future income and economic growth.

“People become more cautious with spending. Also they opt for more affordable options of travel and affordable locations,” Kenneth Chow, principal at Oliver Wyman, told CNBC on Wednesday.

“People are much more interested in spending on things they can talk about, things they can post [on social media] about, rather than just the big ticket items,” he said. He said such shifts mean brands, including luxury ones, need to focus more on communicating the benefits to potential Chinese consumers.

“When people are becoming much more sophisticated, the proposition has to change, and whoever is able to adapt to that new trend first will be able to win,” Chow said. “It’s not just about Chinese brands. It’s not just about overseas brands. It’s about who’s going to react first and who’s going to capture the attention of Chinese consumers first.”

Appliance sales climb

Christine Peng, head of the Greater China consumer sector at UBS, pointed out Wednesday that Golden Week figures indicated recovery in spending was tied to trade-in policies for appliances.

Retail sales rose by 9% during the holiday, while sales of home appliances surged by 149.1%, according to state media, citing figures from the tax administration. It did not provide the amount spent.

“The Golden Week consumption could still suggest a modest recovery versus August, in our view, due to trade-in subsidies (for appliances and autos) and consumption vouchers issued by the local governments,” Peng said. “For example, Shanghai’s retail sales rose 3%, a recovery versus -3% YoY this August.”

During Golden Week, mainland China recorded 765 million domestic trips, up from both the prior year and before the pandemic, according to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism.

However, by another measure of counting from the ministry, China had received 782 million domestic visits in 2019. It was not immediately clear whether the figures were comparable.

The average number of mainland China residents traveling across the border rose to 1.08 million a day during this year’s holiday, up from 1.01 million a day in 2019, according to CNBC calculations of official data.

Japan, Thailand and the U.K. were among the more popular destinations, according to booking site Trip.com.

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10-year Treasury yield rises above 4.6% ahead of jobless claims

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Traders work at the New York Stock Exchange on Dec. 17, 2024.

NYSE

Treasury yields rose Thursday morning as investors awaited new data on jobless claims.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped 4 basis points 4.627%. The 2-year Treasury traded 1 basis point higher at 4.353%.

One basis point is equal to 0.01%. Yields move inversely to prices.

Jobless claims for the week ended Dec.21 are expected to total 225,000, according to an estimate from Dow Jones. Claims for the prior week totaled 220,000.

The benchmark 10-year rate has climbed more than 40 basis points this month. The bulk of the advance came after the Federal Reserve pared down rate-cut projections, indicating only two more interest rate cuts in 2025, down from the four potential cuts penciled in during September.

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Top personal finance New Year’s resolutions for 2025

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The elevated inflation in recent years continued to wreak havoc on many Americans’ wallets in 2024, but the start of the new year provides a great opportunity to set new financial goals to get back on track.

“As we step into 2025, the country’s financial landscape calls for proactive resolutions to address rising concerns such as inflation and debt,” WalletHub analyst Chris Lupo told FOX Business. “Top financial resolutions for 2025 should be focused on smart budgeting, saving, and debt repayment.”

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Many Americans set new financial goals at the start of the New Year (iStock / iStock)

Here are some of the top financial New Year’s resolutions for 2025, according to WalletHub:

1. Make a realistic budget and stick to it

“With Americans carrying nearly $1.3 trillion in credit card debt, setting realistic budgets is a must,” Lupo said.

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2. Save more money

Lupo says saving is also key, as many households lack emergency funds. He suggests starting small with a goal of saving two months’ take-home pay and working your way up to a year’s worth.

“Don’t forget to maximize your earnings: 5%+ APYs on online savings accounts make switching banks worthwhile,” he noted, adding that high-yield Certificates of Deposit (CDs) are also worth considering.

3. Explore ways to refinance high interest rates

High-interest debt is costly, so Lupo says to consider tools like balance transfer cards or debt consolidation loans to cut costs. 

4. Repay 25% of your credit card debt

The average American is currently carrying more than $10,000 in credit card debt, and the sooner it can be tackled, the better. WalletHub says it is important to get serious about it, but suggests it is probably best to start small by setting a goal of chipping away at a quarter of it over the course of the year.

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5. Fight back against inflation

Look for ways to cut costs in everyday expenses, like shopping around for everything you buy, taking advantage of deals and coupons, turning the thermostat down, buying in bulk and cutting back until prices come down.

Grocery shopping

WalletHub suggests fighting back against high prices by shopping around and finding the best price on everyday items. (Paola Chapdelaine for The Washington Post via Getty Images / Getty Images)

WalletHub has another 10 suggestions for 2025 financial resolutions, including paying bills right after getting your paycheck, making sure you have enough insurance for a catastrophe, protecting your identity, brushing up on your financial literacy, and even looking for a better job.

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“Focus on financial literacy and healthy money habits, like paying bills immediately after payday,” Lupo said. “These steps will help make 2025 a financially healthier year.”

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