BY EARLY MAY, people heading to college in America have usually settled on an institution and sent the first of several large cheques. This year, a government cock-up has left admissions in a mess. For months youngsters have been struggling to apply for student loans, Pell grants and other financial aid—the result of a botched effort to revamp the system through which these are doled out. The question is no longer whether this will drive down the number of people starting degree courses this autumn, but how sharp the drop will be.