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After winning New Hampshire, Trump is cruising to the nomination

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MOST THINGS become banal after a near-decade of cultural dominance. But not Donald Trump. Republican voters are still enthralled by him, undaunted by all the turmoil and scandal of his time in the White House and his post-presidential life. His rallies retain their feeling of secular religious revival. His fresh-faced rivals, by contrast, have looked unoriginal and uninspiring. By the time Republicans had voted in just one state, Iowa, only one serious challenger remained. All the rest had dropped out; most had endorsed him. The last woman standing, Nikki Haley, a former governor of South Carolina who served as America’s ambassador to the United Nations while Mr Trump was in office, mounted her resistance in New Hampshire, the second state to cast ballots. Like all the rest, she was overrun.

Mr Trump got 54.3% of the vote to Ms Haley’s 43.3%, and quickly pointed out that no one had ever won both Iowa and New Hampshire and failed to secure the nomination. An unbowed Ms Haley vowed to fight on. “You’ve all heard the chatter among the political class, they’re falling all over themselves saying this race is over,” she said at a speech in Concord, New Hampshire, conceding victory to Mr Trump. “This race is far from over. There are dozens of states left to go. And the next one is my sweet state of South Carolina.” Mr Trump was not pleased. “Who the hell was the impostor that went up on the stage before and, like, claimed a victory?” he sniped at his victory speech.

The problem for Ms Haley is that, if she cannot win in New Hampshire, she cannot expect to win anywhere. Entrance polls conducted during the Iowa caucuses, held on January 15th, show Ms Haley overperforming among Republicans with college degrees, who labelled themselves as political moderates, who didn’t identify as evangelical Christians and especially well among those who believe that President Joe Biden legitimately won the election of 2020. Those kinds of voters are over-represented in New Hampshire.

It was not just a demographic dividend that Ms Haley had hoped to cash in. She won the endorsement of Chris Sununu, New Hampshire’s popular Republican governor, who barnstormed the state with her. She and her allies heavily outspent Mr Trump, splashing out $31m versus his $15.7m. She spent months traipsing around the state’s breweries and diners, while Mr Trump eschewed such drudgery. Anti-Trump Republicans had said the only way to beat the former president was to consolidate support into a single opponent—which has now happened. And even after all that she lost by 11 points.

Chart: The Economist

Subsequent states in the primary calendar are more hostile terrain for Ms Haley. Republicans in her home state of South Carolina, which holds its primary on February 24th, look much more like those in Iowa—where Ms Haley came 32 points behind Mr Trump—than New Hampshire. An average of recent polls there shows Ms Haley trailing by a crushing 37 points. Mr Trump has secured the endorsements of the top South Carolina Republicans with whom Ms Haley once worked as governor.

In trying to explain away this uncomfortable reality at an election-eve rally in Salem, New Hampshire, Ms Haley branded herself as somehow more of a populist insurgent than Mr Trump. One candidate “has got the entire political elite all around him. It’s all of Congress. It’s all these legislative people. He’s got the media all around him. But you know what? I’ve never wanted them.” Only the most credulous supporters in the crowd would believe Ms Haley’s line that her former colleagues were abandoning her because she had been so zealous in pursuing ethics reforms while governor. One especially bored reporter (not this one) began timing their Rubik’s-cube-solving abilities midway through the speech.

In a memo released on the day of the New Hampshire vote, Ms Haley’s campaign argued that she had a viable path to the nomination, urging a “deep breath” until “Super Tuesday” on March 5th, when many states hold their primaries. Her team’s argument is that many of the states that will vote in the next six weeks are “open primaries”, in which independent voters who are not registered Republicans can take part. This factor will indeed help Ms Haley. But in order to be the Republican presidential nominee, one unfortunately needs to be able to command a majority of the party.

The bigger battle ahead

The meek and muddied anti-Trump resistance looks close to its last gasp. Only late in her campaign did Ms Haley take to attacking Mr Trump by name. Her criticisms of the man are usually meticulously crafted to avoid moral judgment. “Rightly or wrongly, chaos follows him,” is a favourite line of hers, as if the chaos had been a curse of some vindictive god rather than intrinsic to the man himself.

Ms Haley’s demise would commit the Republican Party to Trumpism, with its blend of isolationism, illiberalism and protectionism, and away from the internationalism of which Ms Haley sometimes seems the sole influential ambassador on the Republican side. In America, voters get what they want. And it seems that nothing—not a dozen vanquished Republican candidates, not the one remaining woman, not the 91 criminal indictments facing Mr Trump—can get in their way.

Mr Trump can’t wait to swat away Ms Haley so that he can focus on the coming contest with Mr Biden. Mr Biden won 56% of the votes in the Democratic primary in New Hampshire on Tuesday, even though (because he disputed New Hampshire’s cherished right to hold the first primary) his name was not on the ballot. He, too, is cruising to the nomination. Brace yourself for a Biden-Trump rematch.

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Economics

EC President von der Leyen

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The European Union is preparing further countermeasures against U.S. tariffs if negotiations fail, according to European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen.

U.S. President Donald Trump had imposed 20% tariffs on the bloc on Wednesday.

Von der Leyen’s comments come after retaliatory duties were announced by the bloc after the U.S. imposed tariffs on  last month in a bid to protect European workers and consumers. The EU at the time said it would introduce counter-tariffs on 26 billion euros ($28 billion) worth of U.S. goods.

Previously suspended duties — which were at least partially in place during Trump’s first term as president — are set to be re-introduced alongside a slew of additional duties on further goods.

Industrial-grade steel and aluminum, other steel and aluminum semi-finished and finished products, along with their derivative commercial products, such as machinery parts and knitting needles were set to be included. A range of other products such as bourbon, agricultural products, leather goods, home appliances and more were also on the EU’s list.

Following a postponement, these tariffs are expected to come into effect around the middle of April.

This is a developing story, please check back for updates.

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Economics

ADP jobs report March 2025:

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Attendees check in during a job fair at the YMCA Gerard Carter Center on March 27, 2025 in the Stapleton Heights neighborhood of the Staten Island borough in New York City. 

Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

Private payroll gains were stronger than expected in March, countering fears that the labor market and economy are slowing, according to a report Wednesday from ADP.

Companies added 155,000 jobs for the month, a sharp increase from the upwardly revised 84,000 in February and better than the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 120,000, the payrolls processing firm said.

The upside surprise comes amid worries that President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs could deter firms from adding to headcount and in turn slow business and consumer activity. Trump is set to announce the next step in his trade policy Wednesday at 4 p.m.

Hiring was fairly broad based, with professional and business services adding 57,000 workers while financial activities grew by 38,000 as tax season heats up. Manufacturing contributed 21,000 and leisure and hospitality added 17,000.

Service providers were responsible for 132,000 of the positions. On the downside, trade, transportation and utilities saw a loss of 6,000 jobs and natural resources and mining declined by 3,000.

On the wage side, earnings rose by 4.6% year over year for those staying in their positions and 6.5% for job changers. The gap between the two matched a series low last hit in September, suggesting a lower level of mobility for workers wanting to switch jobs.

Still, the overall numbers indicate a solid labor market. Recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that the level of open positions is now almost even with available workers, reversing a trend in which openings outnumbered the unemployed by 2 to 1 a couple years ago.

The ADP report comes ahead of the more closely watched BLS measure of nonfarm payrolls. The BLS report, which unlike ADP includes government jobs, is expected to show payroll growth of 140,000 in March, down slightly from 151,000 in February. The two counts sometimes show substantial disparities due to different methodologies.

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Economics

Trump tariffs’ effect on consumer prices debated by economists

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The U.S. government is set to increase tariff rates on several categories of imported products. Some economists tracking these trade proposals say the higher tariff rates could lead to higher consumer prices.

One model constructed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston suggests that in an “extreme” scenario, heightened taxes on U.S. imports could result in a 1.4 percentage point to 2.2 percentage point increase to core inflation. This scenario assumes 60% tariff rates on Chinese imports and 10% tariff rates on imports from all other countries.

The researchers note that many other tariff proposals have surfaced since they published their findings in February 2025. 

Price increases could come across many categories, including new housing and automobiles, alongside consumer services such as nursing, public transportation and finance. 

“People might think, ‘Oh, tariffs can only affect the goods that I buy. It can’t affect the services,'” said Hillary Stein, an economist at the Boston Fed. “Those hospitals are buying inputs that might be, for example, … medical equipment that comes from abroad.” 

White House economists say tariffs will not meaningfully contribute to inflation. In a statement to CNBC, Stephen Miran, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, said that “as the world’s largest source of consumer demand, the U.S. holds all the leverage, which means foreign suppliers will have to eat the economic burden or ‘incidence’ of the tariffs.” 

Assessing the impact of the administration’s full economic agenda has been a challenge for central bank leaders. The Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at the meeting in March. 

The Fed targets its overnight borrowing rate at between 4.25% and 4.5%, with the effective federal funds rate at 4.33% on March 31, according to the New York Fed. The core personal consumption expenditures price index inflation rate rose to 2.8% in February, according to the Commerce Department. Forecasts of U.S. gross domestic product suggest that the economy will continue to grow at a 1.7% rate in 2025, albeit at a slower pace than what was forecast in January.  

Consumers in the U.S. and businesses around the world are bracing for impact. 
 
“There is a reason why companies went outside of the U.S.,” said Gregor Hirt, chief investment officer at Allianz Global Investors. “Most of the time it was because it was cheaper and more productive.” 

Watch the video above to learn how much inflation tariffs may cause.

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