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Bond market ‘yield curve’ returns to normal from inverted state that had raised recession fears

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A trader signals an offer in the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index futures pit at the CME Group in Chicago on Dec. 14, 2010.

Scott Olson | Getty Images News | Getty Images

The relationship between the 10- and 2-year Treasury yield briefly normalized Wednesday, reversing a classic recession indicator.

Following economic news that showed a sharp decline in job openings and dovish remarks from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, the benchmark 10-year yield inched above the 2-year for the first time since June 2022.

The respective yields were both around 3.79% on the session, with just a few thousandths of a percentage point separating them.

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10-year yield vs. the 2-year

An inverted yield curve, in which the nearer-duration yield is higher, has signaled most recessions since World War II. The reason why shorter-duration yields rose above their longer-duration counterparts is essentially the result of traders pricing in slower growth out into the future.

However, a normalization of the curve does not necessary signal good times ahead. In fact, the curve usually does revert before a recession hits, meaning the U.S. could still be in for some rough economic waters ahead.

“If you don’t have any sense of history regarding the economy, needless to say it would be positive,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial. “However, statistically the yield curve will normalize as the economy actually does go into a recession or is in a recession simply because the Fed is going to be cutting rates” in response to a slowing economy.

The price action followed a Labor Department report showing that job openings unexpectedly slid below 7.7 million in the month, bringing supply and demand almost even following a severe imbalance since the Covid crisis. Job openings had exceeded labor supply by more than 2 to 1 at one point, aggravating inflation that had been at its highest level in more than 40 years.

At the same time, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic released comments, around the same time the job openings report dropped, indicating that he’s ready to start reducing rates even with inflation running above the central bank’s 2% goal.

Lower rates are seen as a boost for economic growth; the Fed has held its benchmark rate at its highest level in 23 years since July 2023, targeted in a range between 5.25%-5.5%.

While the market most closely watches the relationship between the 2-year and 10-year, the Fed more closely watches the relationship between the three-month and 10-year. That part of the curve is still steeply inverted, with the difference now at more than 1.3 percentage points.

Economics

A protest against America’s TikTok ban is mired in contradiction

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AS A SHUTDOWN looms, TikTok in America has the air of the last day of school. The Brits are saying goodbye to the Americans. Australians are waiting in the wings to replace banished American influencers. And American users are bidding farewell to their fictional Chinese spies—a joke referencing the American government’s accusation that China is using the app (which is owned by ByteDance, a Chinese tech giant) to surveil American citizens.

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Home insurance costs soar as climate events surge, Treasury Dept. says

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Firefighters battle flames during the Eaton Fire in Pasadena, California, U.S., Jan. 7, 2025.

Mario Anzuoni | Reuters

Climate-related natural disasters are driving up insurance costs for homeowners in the most-affected regions, according to a Treasury Department report released Thursday.

In a voluminous study covering 2018-22 and including some data beyond that, the department found that there were 84 disasters costing $1 billion or more, excluding floods, and that they caused a combined $609 billion in damages. Floods are not covered under homeowner policies.

During the period, costs for policies across all categories rose 8.7% faster than the rate of inflation. However, the burden went largely to those living in areas most hit by climate-related events.

For consumers living in the 20% of zip codes with the highest expected annual losses, premiums averaged $2,321, or 82% more than those living in the 20% of lowest-risk zip codes.

“Homeowners insurance is becoming more costly and less accessible for consumers as the costs of climate-related events pose growing challenges to both homeowners and insurers alike,” said Nellie Liang, undersecretary of the Treasury for domestic finance.

The report comes as rescue workers continue to battle raging wildfires in the Los Angeles area. At least 25 people have been killed and 180,000 homeowners have been displaced.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the costs from the fires are still unknown, but noted that the report reflected an ongoing serious problem. During the period studied, there was nearly double the annual total of disasters declared for climate-related events as in the period of 1960-2010 combined.

“Moreover, this [wildfire disaster] does not stand alone as evidence of this impact, with other climate-related events leading to challenges for Americans in finding affordable insurance coverage – from severe storms in the Great Plans to hurricanes in the Southeast,” Yellen said in a statement. “This report identifies alarming trends of rising costs of insurance, all of which threaten the long-term prosperity of American families.”

Both homeowners and insurers in the most-affected areas were paying in other ways as well.

Nonrenewal rates in the highest-risk areas were about 80% higher than those in less-risky areas, while insurers paid average claims of $24,000 in higher-risk areas compared to $19,000 in lowest-risk regions.

In the Southeast, which includes states such as Florida and Louisiana that frequently are slammed by hurricanes, the claim frequency was 20% higher than the national average.

In the Southwest, which includes California, wildfires tore through 3.3 million acres during the time period, with five events causing more than $100 million in damages. The average loss claim was nearly $27,000, or nearly 50% higher than the national average. Nonrenewal rates for insurance were 23.5% higher than the national average.

The Treasury Department released its findings with just three days left in the current administration. Treasury officials said they hope the administration under President-elect Donald Trump uses the report as a springboard for action.

“We certainly are hopeful that our successors stay focused on this issue and continue to produce important research on this issue and think about important and creative ways to address it,” an official said.

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Economics

How bad will the smoke be for Angelenos’ health?

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Where there is fire, there is smoke. For the people of Los Angeles, this will add to the misery. Some are already suffering from burning throats and irritated eyes. Many miles from the wildfires, people are wearing masks; shops are running out. The fires may also cause long-term problems.

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