Urban buildings in Huai’an city, Jiangsu province, China, on March 18, 2025.
Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty Images
BEIJING — UBS analysts on Wednesday became the latest to raise expectations that China’s struggling real estate market is close to stabilizing.
“After four or five years of a downward cycle, we have begun to see some relatively positive signals,” John Lam, head of Asia-Pacific property and Greater China property research at UBS Investment Bank, told reporters Wednesday. That’s according to a CNBC translation of his Mandarin-language remarks.
“Of course these signals aren’t nationwide, and may be local,” Lam said. “But compared to the past, it should be more positive.”
One indicator is improving sales in China’s largest cities.
Existing home sales in five major Chinese cities have climbed by more than 30% from a year ago on a weekly basis as of Wednesday, according to CNBC analysis of data accessed via Wind Information. The category is typically called “secondary home sales” in China, in contrast to the primary market, which has typically consisted of newly built apartment homes.
UBS now predicts China’s home prices can stabilize in early 2026, earlier than the mid-2026 timeframe previously forecast. They expect secondary transactions could reach half of the total by 2026.
UBS looked at four factors — low inventory, a rising premium on land prices, rising secondary sales and increasing rental prices — that had indicated a property market inflection point between 2014 and 2015. As of February 2025, only rental prices had yet to see an improvement, the firm said.
Chinese policymakers in September called for a “halt” in the decline of the property sector, which accounts for the majority of household wealth and just a few years earlier contributed to more than a quarter of the economy. Major developers such as Evergrande have defaulted on their debt, while property sales have nearly halved since 2021 to around 9.7 trillion yuan ($1.34 trillion) last year, according to S&P Global Ratings.
China’s property market began its recent decline in late 2020 after Beijing started cracking down on developers’ high reliance on debt for growth. Despite a flurry of central and local government measures in the last year and a half, the real estate slump has persisted.
But after more forceful stimulus was announced late last year, analysts started to predict a bottom could come as soon as later this year.
Then, in late February, Macquarie’s Chief China Economist Larry Hu pointed to three “positive” signals that could support a bottom in home prices this year. He noted that in addition to the policy push, unsold housing inventory levels have fallen to the lowest since 2011 and a narrowing gap between mortgage rates and rental yields could encourage homebuyers to buy rather than rent.
But he said in an email this week that what China’s housing market still needs is financial support channeled through the central bank.
HSBC’s Head of Asia Real Estate Michelle Kwok in February said there are “10 signs” the Chinese real estate market has bottomed. The list included recovery in new home sales, home prices and foreign investment participation.
In addition to state-owned enterprises, “foreign capital has started to invest in the property market,” the report said, noting “two Singaporean developers/investment funds acquired land sites in Shanghai on 20 February.”
Invesco in late February announced its real estate investment arm formed a joint venture with Ziroom, a Chinese company known locally for its standardized, modern-style apartment rentals.
The joint venture, called Izara Holdings, plans to initially invest 1.2 billion yuan (about $160 million) in a 1,500-room rental housing development near one of the sites for Beijing’s Winter Olympics, with a targeted opening of 2027.
The units will likely be available for rent around 5,000 yuan a month, Calvin Chou, head of Asia-Pacific, Invesco Real Estate, said in an interview. He said developers’ financial difficulties have created a market gap, and he expects the joint venture to invest in at least one or two more projects in China this year.
Ziroom’s database allows the company to quickly assess regional factors for choosing new developments, Ziroom Asset Management CEO Meng Yue said in a statement, adding the venture plans to eventually expand overseas.
Not out of the woods
However, data still reflects a struggling property market. Real estate investment still fell by nearly 10% in the first two months of the year, according to a raft of official economic figures released Monday.
“The property sector is especially concerning as key data are in the negative territory across the board, with new home starts growth worsening to -29.6% in January-February from -25.5% in Q4 2024,” Nomura’s Chief China Economist Ting Lu said in a report Monday.
“It’s long been our view that without a real stabilization of the property sector there will be no real recovery of the Chinese economy,” he said.
Improved secondary sales also don’t directly benefit developers, whose revenue previously came from primary sales. S&P Global Ratings this month put Vanke on credit watch, and downgraded its rating on Longfor. Both developers were among the largest in the market.
“Generally China’s [recent] policy efforts have been quite extensive,” Sky Kwah, head of investment advisory at Raffles Family Office, said in an interview earlier this month.
“The key at this point in time is execution. The sector recovery relies on consumer confidence,” he said, adding that “you do not reverse confidence overnight. Confidence has to be earned.”
Smart robotic arms work on the production line at the production workshop of Changqing Auto Parts Co., LTD., located in Anqing Economic Development Zone, Anhui Province, China, on March 13, 2025. (Photo by Costfoto/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
BEIJING — China missed several key targets from its 10-year plan to become self-sufficient in technology, while fostering unhealthy industrial competition which worsened global trade tensions, the European Chamber of Commerce in China said in a report this week.
When Beijing released its “Made in China 2025” plan in 2015, it was met with significant international criticism for promoting Chinese business at the expense of their foreign counterparts. The country subsequently downplayed the initiative, but has doubled-down on domestic tech development given U.S. restrictionsin the last several years.
Since releasing the plan,China has exceeded its targets on achieving domestic dominance in autos, but the country has not yet reached its targets in aerospace, high-end robots and the growth rate of manufacturing value-added, the business chamber said, citing its research and discussions with members. Out of ten strategic sectors identified in the report, China only attained technological dominance in shipbuilding, high-speed rail and electric cars.
China’s targets are generally seen as a direction rather than an actual figure to be achieved by a specific date. The Made In China 2025 plan outlines the first ten years of what the country called a ‘multi-decade strategy’ to become a global manufacturing powerhouse.
The chamber pointed out that China’s self-developed airplane, the C919, still relies heavily on U.S. and European parts and though industrial automation levels have “increased substantially,” it is primarily due to foreign technology. In addition, the growth rate of manufacturing value add reached 6.1% in 2024, falling from the 7% rate in 2015 and just over halfway toward reaching the target of 11%.
“Everyone should consider themselves lucky that China missed its manufacturing growth target,” Jens Eskelund, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, told reporters Tuesday, since the reverse would have exacerbated pressure on global competitors. “They didn’t fulfill their own target, but I actually think they did astoundingly well.”
Even at that slower pace, China has transformed itself over the last decade to drive 29% of global manufacturing value add — almost the same as the U.S. and Europe combined, Eskelund said. “Before 2015, in many, many categoriesChina was not a direct competitor of Europe and the United States.”
The U.S. in recent years has sought to restrict China’s access to high-end tech, and encourage advanced manufacturing companies to build factories in America.
The U.S. restrictions have “pushed us to make things that previously we would not have thought we had to buy,” said Lionel M. Ni, founding president of the Guangzhou campus of the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. That’s according to a CNBC translation of his Mandarin-language remarks to reporters on Wednesday.
Ni said the products requiring home-grown development efforts included chips and equipment, and if substitutes for restricted items weren’t immediately available, the university would buy the second-best version available.
In addition to thematic plans, China issues national development priorities every five years. The current 14th five-year plan emphasizes support for the digital economy and wraps up in December. The subsequent 15th five-year plan is scheduled to be released next year.
China catching up
It remains unclear to what extent China can become completely self-sufficient in key technological systems in the near term. But local companies have made rapid strides.
“Western chip export controls have had some success in that they briefly set back China’s developmental efforts in semiconductors, albeit at some cost to the United States and allied firms,” analysts at the Washington, D.C.,-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies, said in a report this week. However, they noted that China has only doubled down, “potentially destabilizing the U.S. semiconductor ecosystem.”
For example, the thinktank pointed out, Huawei’s current generation smartphone, the Pura 70 series, incorporates 33 China-sourced components and only 5 sourced from outside of China.
Huawei reported a 22% surge in revenue in 2024 — the fastest growth since 2016 — buoyed by a recovery in its consumer products business.The company spent 20.8% of its revenue on research and development last year, well above its annual goal of more than 10%.
Overall, China manufacturers reached the nationwide 1.68% target for spending on research and development as a percentage of operating revenue, the EU Chamber report said.
“‘Europe needs to take a hard look at itself,” Eskelund said, referring to Huawei’s high R&D spend. “Are European companies doing what is needed to remain at the cutting edge of technology?”
However, high spending doesn’t necessarily mean efficiency.
The electric car race in particular has prompted a price war, with most automakers running losses in their attempt to undercut competitors. The phenomenon is often called “neijuan” or “involution” in China.
“We also need to realize [China’s] success has not come without problems,” Eskelund said. “We are seeing across a great many industries it has not translated into healthy business.”
He added that the attempt to fulfill “Made in China 2025” targets contributed to involution, and pointed out that China’s efforts to move up the manufacturing value chain from Christmas ornaments to high-end equipment have also increased global worries about security risks.
Weekly analysis and insights from Asia’s largest economy in your inbox Subscribe now
Such fierce competition compounds the impact of already slowing economic growth. Out of 2,825 mainland China-listed companies, 20% reported a loss for the first time in 2024, according to a CNBC analysis of Wind Information data as of Thursday. Including companies that reported yet another year of losses, the share of companies that lost money last year rose to nearly 48%, the analysis showed.
China in March emphasized that boosting consumption is its priority for the year, after previously focusing on manufacturing. Retail sales growth have lagged behind industrial production on a year-to-date basis since the beginning of 2024, according to official data accessed via Wind Information.
Policymakers are also looking for ways to ensure “a better match between manufacturing output and what the domestic market can absorb,” Eskelund said, adding that efforts to boost consumption don’t matter much if manufacturing output grows even faster.
But when asked about policies that could address manufacturing overcapacity, he said, “We are also eagerly waiting in anticipation.”
Check out the companies making headlines before the bell: Hertz — Shares of the rental car company soared nearly 16%, extending the gains seen in the previous session. On Wednesday, the stock skyrocketed more than 56% after Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square disclosed that it had taken a sizable stake in the name. UnitedHealth — The stock plunged more than 19% after the insurer’s first-quarter results missed analysts’ estimates. UnitedHealth reported adjusted earnings of $7.20 per share on revenue of $109.58 billion, below the $7.29 in earnings per share and $111.60 billion that analysts surveyed by LSEG were looking for. The company also slashed its full-year guidance . Eli Lilly — The pharmaceutical stock surged 11% after phase-three trial results for a pill to treat weight loss and diabetes showed positive results. Taiwan Semiconductor — U.S. shares jumped more than 3% after the chipmaker’s results for the first quarter topped Wall Street’s expectations. The company also maintained its 2025 revenue forecast, noting that it has not yet seen any changes in customer behavior despite there being “uncertainties and risks from the potential impact of tariff policies.” D.R. Horton — The homebuilding stock fell more than 3% on the heels of the company posting weaker-than-expected second-quarter results. D.R. Horton earned $2.58 per share, while analysts had expected earnings of $2.63 per share, according to LSEG. Revenue of $7.73 billion also missed the consensus estimate of $8.03 billion. Alcoa — Shares dropped more than 2% after the company’s revenue of $3.37 billion for the first quarter missed expectations, with analysts calling for $3.53 billion, per LSEG. Earnings, however, came in better than expected. — CNBC’s Jesse Pound contributed reporting.
Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading: Alphabet — Shares of the megacap technology name pulled back 1.2% after a federal judge ruled that Google has illegally monopolized online advertising technology , namely the markets for publisher ad servers and ad exchanges. Hertz — The rental car company surged 50% to a 52-week high, following a 56% rally in the previous session, after Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square took a sizable stake . A regulatory filing revealed Pershing Square had built a 4.1% position as of the end of 2024. Pershing has significantly increased the position — to 19.8% — through shares and swaps, becoming Hertz’s second-largest shareholder, CNBC reported. Nvidia , Advanced Micro Devices — Shares of Nvidia dipped nearly 3% and AMD declined 1%, continuing their declines from the previous session when the chipmakers announced additional charges tied to China exports due to President Donald Trump’s tariff plans. Global Payments , Fidelity National Information Services — Global Payments announced it is acquiring Worldpay for $24.25 billion from Fidelity National Information Services and a private equity firm, and divesting its Issuer Solutions business. Shares of Global Payments fell 16%, while Fidelity National Information Services jumped 8.6%. Taiwan Semiconductor — U.S. shares jumped more than 1% after the chipmaker’s results for the first quarter topped Wall Street’s expectations. The company also maintained its 2025 revenue forecast, noting that it has not yet seen any changes in customer behavior despite there being “uncertainties and risks from the potential impact of tariff policies.” UnitedHealth — Shares of the insurer plummeted about 22% on the back of disappointing first-quarter results. UnitedHealth reported adjusted earnings of $7.20 per share on revenue of $109.58 billion, falling short of the $7.29 in earnings per share and $111.60 billion that analysts surveyed by LSEG called for. The company also slashed its full-year guidance . Eli Lilly — The pharmaceutical stock jumped 16% after Eli Lilly said its daily obesity pill showed positive results in its late-stage trials. Weight loss data, along with rates of side effects and treatment discontinuations, from the experimental pill — called orforglipron — came out in line with what some Wall Street analysts were expecting. The pill fell short of some analysts’ estimates for a key diabetes metric. Alcoa — The stock shed nearly 5% after Alcoa, one of the world’s largest aluminum producers, reported first-quarter revenue of $3.37 billion, which fell short of the forecast $3.53 billion from analysts polled by LSEG. Alcoa’s earnings came out better than expected. D.R. Horton — The homebuilding stock gained 3% despite posting weaker-than-expected second-quarter results. D.R. Horton reported earnings of $2.58 per share, while analysts had expected earnings of $2.63 per share, according to LSEG. The company’s revenue of $7.73 billion came out below the consensus $8.03 billion estimate. — CNBC’s Sean Conlon and Yun Li contributed reporting.