IT IS AN extraordinary comeback—or, as Donald Trump triumphantly put it in West Palm Beach, Florida, in the early hours of November 6th, “a political victory that our country has never seen before”. After losing four years ago he has survived impeachment, conviction as a felon, numerous other indictments and two assassination attempts, and will become America’s 47th president, to add to his stint as the 45th. He becomes the oldest man ever to win the White House.

Many had expected a long wait for the result of an extremely close election to become clear. In the event, the outcome was evident within hours. Mr Trump looked set to win all seven of the critical swing states: he triumphed in North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and had strong leads in Michigan, Arizona and Nevada. That translates into a decisive advantage in the electoral college.

It appears that Mr Trump was able to draw support from both urban and rural voters at levels notably higher than in his contest against Joe Biden in 2020. In state after state, Mr Trump performed better than he had in 2020. In Florida, for example, where he won by three percentage points last time, his margin is on track to surge to 12 points. And although opinion-poll aggregates had consistently shown Kamala Harris to be ahead in the national popular vote, it seems that Mr Trump may have won that too. Just as in 2016 and 2020, in other words, the polls underestimated Mr Trump’s support.

What went wrong for Ms Harris? For one thing, her advantage among women voters, on whom Democrats were pinning their hopes, turned out to be smaller than expected. The gender gap, between the votes of men and women, actually narrowed, from 23 points in 2020 to 20, according to exit polls. Among Hispanic voters, Mr Trump made striking inroads, improving his margin by ten percentage points compared with 2020, according to CNN’s exit poll. The trend was particularly strong among Hispanic men: Joe Biden won their vote by a margin of 23 points; this time Mr Trump was on track to prevail among them by a margin of ten points. More broadly, dissatisfaction with high inflation and immigration contributed to a sense among voters that the country was on the wrong track, for which they naturally blame the incumbent. Much as Ms Harris sought to present herself as the candidate of change, she was stuck with her association with the current administration.

As well as the White House, the Republicans also wrested back control of the Senate. It was always going to be hard for Democrats to hold on to their slender majority in that chamber, given that they were defending a disproportionate number of seats (a third of which are up for election in each election cycle). Not only did Republicans take the vacant seat in West Virginia, as expected; they also flipped Ohio and Montana and prevailed in a close contest in Nebraska. The upsets Democrats hoped for in Florida and Texas failed to materialise. Republican control of the Senate smooths the way for Mr Trump to make important appointments—from cabinet secretaries to generals to Supreme Court justices—that require Senate confirmation.

Whether the Republicans complete their sweep by retaining control of the House of Representatives is still not clear. Results in California, to arrive later, will determine that. But Mr Trump, in his victory speech, was confident that the House would be his, too.

“This will truly be the golden age of America,” he declared. Few will question that the country is indeed entering a new age. Whether Mr Trump will truly “heal” America, as he promised, is more debatable. Beyond America’s borders, too, the consequences are momentous. From tariffs to climate change to Ukraine, the world must brace itself for Trump II.■

DONALD TRUMP claimed victory in the 2024 presidential election, saying that “America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate”. Pennsylvania was called for the Republican shortly after 2am Eastern time. He had already taken a clear lead in the race, having earlier claimed the swing states of North Carolina and Georgia. Kamala Harris’s path to victory vanished, as she badly underperformed Joe Biden’s showing of four years ago.

Ms Harris’s fortunes shrank remarkably quickly. Within a few hours of the first polls closing it had become clear that she was failing to make headway against Mr Trump. It appears that Mr Trump was able to draw support from both urban and rural voters at levels notably higher than in his contest against Mr Biden in 2020.

Mr Trump was speaking during the early hours of November 6th, at Palm Beach County convention centre, in Florida. In the previous days opinion polls had appeared to show that momentum favoured Ms Harris, whereas the former president had appeared tired and frustrated with his campaign. That makes his apparent success all the more remarkable. Republicans also claimed control of the Senate, as had been widely expected, and seemed well placed to take the House too.

Beyond the key battlegrounds, the picture had been similarly dispiriting for the Harris campaign. In Virginia, which Mr Biden won comfortably in 2020, Ms Harris eked out only a narrow victory, though even there she was lagging behind Mr Biden’s performance in suburban counties such as Loudoun, outside Washington, DC. That was a concerning trend—and a hint of her eventual losses in Pennsylvania. Her prospects in other parts of the Midwest, including in Michigan and Wisconsin, where suburban voters were crucial to her chances, looked no better. In Florida, Ms Harris did worse than Mr Biden, who lost by just over three percentage points in 2020.

A pressing question for Ms Harris—and the Democrats more widely—is why they did so poorly. As incumbents in other parts of the world discovered, voters were evidently ready to punish those in office. In addition, expectations that women would turn out in sufficiently large numbers to elect the first female president proved wrong. Mr Trump, meanwhile, appears to have done enough to fire up non-white voters, including Latinos and black male voters, to broaden his appeal beyond his showing in previous presidential elections. As a political comeback story, it is a striking one.■

This story has been updated