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Economy added 12,000 jobs, impacted by hurricanes, Boeing strike

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U.S. economy added just 12,000 jobs in October, impacted by hurricanes, Boeing strike

Job creation in October slowed to its weakest pace since late 2020 as the impacts of storms in the Southeast and a significant labor impasse dented the employment picture.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 12,000 for the month, down sharply from September and below the Dow Jones estimate for 100,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. In what had already been expected to be a downbeat report, October posted the smallest gain since December 2020.

The unemployment rate, however, held at 4.1%, in line with expectations. A broader measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons also was unchanged at 7.7%.

In the report narrative, the BLS noted that the Boeing strike likely subtracted 44,000 jobs in the manufacturing sector, which lost 46,000 positions overall.

Along with that, the report noted the impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton but said “it is not possible to quantify the net effect” of the storms on the jobs total.

Elsewhere, the bureau said average hourly earnings increased 0.4% for the month, slightly higher than the estimate, though the 4% 12-month gain was in line. The average work week held steady at 34.3 hours.

Markets, though, largely ignored the bad news, with stock market futures poised for a strong open on Wall Street while Treasury yields plunged. The meager jobs numbers along with wages about in line with expectations help cement another interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week.

“At first glance, October’s jobs report paints a picture of growing fragility in the U.S. labor market, but under the surface is a muddy report roiled by climate and labor disruptions,” said Cory Stahle, an economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab. “While the impacts of these events are real and should not be ignored, they are likely temporary and not a signal of a collapsing job market.”

The release comes just days ahead of the presidential election in which Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump are in what most polls show to be a deadlocked race. With the economy at the forefront of the battle, the light jobs number “casts a murky shadow heading into next week,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS.

The weak October report also included substantial downward revisions from previous months. August was cut to just a gain of 78,000 while September’s initial estimate came down to 223,000. Together, the net revisions lowered previously reported job creation totals by 112,000.

Health care and government again led job creation, respectively adding 52,000 and 40,000 positions. Several sectors, though, saw job losses.

In addition to the expected pullback in manufacturing, temporary help services saw a drop of 49,000. The category is sometimes seen as a proxy for underlying job strength and has seen a decline of 577,000 since March 2022, the BLS said.

Another leading sector, leisure and hospitality, saw a drop of 4,000, while retail trade and transportation and warehousing also reported modest declines.

In the household survey, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, the hiring numbers were even weaker.

That showed 368,000 fewer people reported holding jobs and the labor force contracting by 220,000. Full-time employment declined by 164,000, while part-timers fell by 227,000.

The report covers a month in which hurricanes Helene and Milton slammed the Southeast – Florida and North Carolina in particular – while the Boeing strike also hit what had been a vibrant though slowing labor market. Recent developments indicate that the Boeing impasse could be near an end.

Prior to the release, job creation had averaged close to 200,000 a month during 2024, about 60,000 below the pace for the same period a year ago through still indicative of solid pace of hiring.

Some cracks in recent months have raised concerns at the Federal Reserve that while the year-over-year pace of inflation is slowing, elevated interest rate could impact the labor market and threaten the ongoing economic expansion.

As a result, policymakers in September took a step unprecedented for a growing economy and lowered their benchmark short-term interest rate by half a percentage point, double the customary quarter-point increments in which the Fed usually likes to move.

Financial markets are pricing in a strong likelihood that the central bank cuts by a quarter point at each of its two remaining meetings this year. The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee will announce its decision next Thursday.

Economics

The unemployment rate for Black women fell in December

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A jobseeker holds flyers during the New York Public Library’s annual Bronx Job Fair & Expo at the the Bronx Library Center in the Bronx borough of New York, US, on Friday, Sept. 6, 2024.

Yuki Iwamura | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The unemployment rate fell for Black women in December, following an alarming increase in the figure for November.

Overall, nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in December, rising 256,000 in the month and topping economists’ prediction for a gain of 155,000, per Dow Jones. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% in a sign of a resilient labor market. The data fueled the belief that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates much less than anticipated this year.

For Black women, the unemployment rate dropped to 5.4% in December. That’s down from 5.9% in November, when the jobless rate rose nearly a percentage point for the cohort. The labor force participation rate, which tracks the population employed or seeking work, inched up to 62.4%.

Among Black workers overall, the unemployment rate also declined in December, slipping to 6.1%. That compares to a rate of 6.4% in November and 5.7% in October.

“There were some concerns about the Black unemployment rate going up,” said Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, referring to November’s uptick. “It’s still significantly higher than for other groups – and that’s still a concern – but nothing in this report jumps out as particularly problematic.”

Black men also made strides, with the jobless rate declining to 5.6% in December from 6% a month earlier. The labor force participation rate for the cohort inched lower to 68.2% last month from 68.7%.

Hispanic men also saw their unemployment rate improve in December, ticking down to 4% from 4.4% as labor force participation improved.

Though the unemployment rate among Hispanic women inched up to 5.3% last month from 5.2%, Gould noted that this shift is within the margin of error. “There’s a lot of volatility with the data,” she said. “I would say that things mostly held steady.”

By comparison, the jobless rate fell to 3.6% in December among white workers overall. That’s down from 3.8%. Among white men, the unemployment rate slipped to 3.3% last month from 3.5%, but the figure held steady at 3.4% for white women.

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Economics

Here’s where the jobs are for December 2024 – in one chart

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December’s job report marked yet another month of stronger-than-expected growth, with gains coming from many different parts of the U.S. economy.

Last month, health care and social assistance jobs saw the largest gains for a third consecutive month, adding 69,500 to payrolls, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Including private education, as some economists do, the health care group’s growth would have risen by 80,000.

Retail trade, which added 43,400 jobs, and leisure and hospitality, up 43,000, scored the second- and third-largest increases last month. Retail trade jobs are in or outside a store, from infomercials to street vendors to vending machines, can sell to consumers or other businesses and involve after-sale services, such as repair and installation, the BLS says.

Government jobs rounded out the top four, posting growth of 33,000 in December.

“Recently, job growth has been very narrowly concentrated in government and health care,” Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter’s chief economist, told CNBC. “Now, it seems like perhaps it’s broadening out.”

Retail growth, a sharp turnaround from steep losses in November, was bolstered by employment increases across key categories. Notably, clothing, clothing accessories, shoe and jewelry retailers saw an increase of 23,000 positions, while general merchandise retailers and health and personal care retailers grew by 13,000 and 7,000 jobs, respectively, according to BLS data.

That rise is “not just a blip,” Pollak said, adding that it reflects other data that shows an improving backdrop in the sector.

For instance, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’ December Texas Retail Outlook Survey showed an acceleration in retail sales activity. The sales index, which measures state retail activity, hit its highest level since late 2021.

“Retailers are more upbeat on 2025 and on the backs of a strong consumer,” Pollak continued. “We’ll probably see more movement in the housing market coming soon.”

In contrast to the strength in retail trade, manufacturing – which saw sizable growth in November – led the declines for December, losing 13,000 jobs.

Additionally, mining and logging, and wholesale trade reversed course last month from November. After seeing slight increases two months ago, mining and logging employment dropped by 3,000, while wholesale trade slumped even more, losing 3,500 positions.

Professional and business services, plus financial activities continued to be bright spots. Those two groups were among the nine in 13 sectors that added jobs last month.

“We’re seeing improvement in total vehicle sales, Americans are making big ticket purchases again, [and] businesses are buying vehicles too,” Pollak said. “These trends have been picking up over the last few months; they were taking a while to filter into the labor market, but this report suggests … perhaps a recovery is starting to take hold.”

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Economics

Jobs report December 2024:

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Job growth was much stronger than expected in December, possibly providing the Federal Reserve less incentive to cut interest rates this year.

Nonfarm payrolls surged by 256,000 for the month, up from 212,000 in November and above the 155,000 forecast from the Dow Jones consensus, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, one-tenth of a point below expectations. An alternative measure that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time positions for economic reasons moved down to 7.5%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point and the lowest since June 2024.

Stock market futures were negative after the report’s release while Treasury yields soared.

The report brings to a close a year in which employment grew each month, though inconsistently and at times raising questions over whether a recession loomed. However, the final two months showed a labor market still operating at strength as the Fed contemplates its next moves on monetary policy.

One area that Fed officials have stressed to not be a source of inflation is the labor market, and wages grew slightly less than expected.

Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% on the month, which was in line with forecasts, but the 12-month gain of 3.9% was slightly below the outlook and indicative that wage inflation at least is becoming less of a factor. The average work week again held steady at 34.3 hours.

Job growth came from the familiar sources of health care (up 46,000), leisure and hospitality (43,000) and government (33,000).

Retail also saw a sizeable gain, up 43,000 after losing 29,000 in November heading into the holiday shopping season. The sector saw payroll growth of 2.2 million for the full year, down nearly one-third from the 3 million gain in 2023.

Revisions for prior months were less substantial than has been the recent trend. The October count saw an upward change of 7,000 to 43,000, while the November number was cut by 15,000 from the prior estimate.

This is breaking news. Please check back for updates.

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