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Economy grew at a 2.8% pace

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U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% pace in the second quarter, much more than expected

Economic activity in the U.S. was considerably stronger than expected during the second quarter, boosted by a strong consumer, government spending and a sizeable inventory build, according to an initial estimate Thursday from the Commerce Department.

Real gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services produced during the April-through-June period, increased at a 2.8% annualized pace adjusted for seasonality and inflation. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for growth of 2.1% following a 1.4% rise in the first quarter.

Consumer spending helped propel the growth number higher, as did contributions from private inventory investment and nonresidential fixed investment, according to the first of three estimates the department will provide.

Personal consumption expenditures, the main proxy in the Bureau of Economic Analysis report for consumer activity, increased 2.3% for the quarter, up from the 1.5% acceleration in Q1. Both services and goods spending saw solid increases for the quarter.

Inventories also were a significant contributor, adding 0.82 percentage point to the total gain. Government spending added a tailwind as well, rising 3.9% at the federal level, including a 5.2% surge in defense outlays.

On the downside, imports, which subtract from GDP, jumped 6.9%, the biggest quarterly rise since Q1 of 2022. Exports were up just 2%.

Stock market futures drifted higher following the report while Treasury yields moved lower.

“The composition of growth was one of the better mixes that we have observed in some time,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. The report “tends to support the idea that the American economy is in the midst of a productivity boom which over the medium term will lift living standards across the country via lower inflation, low employment and rising real wages.”

There was some good news on the inflation front: the personal consumption expenditures price index, a key measure for the Federal Reserve, increased 2.6% for the quarter, down from the 3.4% move in Q1. Excluding food and energy, core PCE prices, which the Fed focuses on even more as a longer-term inflation indicator, were up 2.9%, compared to a 3.7% increase in the prior period.

The so-called chain-weighted price index, which takes into account changes in consumer behavior, increased 2.3% for the quarter, below the 2.6% estimate.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen saw the GDP report as “affirming the path we’re on to steady growth and declining inflation,” in remarks she delivered Thursday morning in Rio de Janeiro.

Former St. Louis Fed President: Probability of a recession isn't any higher now than ordinary times

One other key variable, final sales to private domestic purchasers, which the Fed considers a good indicator of underlying demand, accelerated at a 2.6% pace, the same as in the prior quarter.

However, the report also indicated that the personal savings rate continues to decelerate, at 3.5% for the quarter, compared with 3.8% in Q1.

There have been signs of cracks lately in the consumer picture.

A report Wednesday from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve showed credit card delinquencies at an all-time high according to data going back to 2012. Revolving debt balances also reached a new high even as banks reported tightening credit standards and declining new card originations.

However, retail sales numbers have continued to climb indicating that consumers are weathering the headwinds of high interest rates and persistent inflation.

There also is pressure in the housing market: Sales are declining while home prices continue to rise, putting stress on first-time homebuyers.

Federal Reserve officials are expected to hold interest rates steady when they meet next week, though market pricing is pointing to the first cut in four years in September. Policymakers have been circumspect about when they might start reducing rates, though recent comments indicate more of a willingness to start easing policy and most central bankers have said they see further increases as unlikely.

In other economic news Thursday, the Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims totaled 235,000 for the week ended July 20, down 10,000 from the previous week and exactly in line with the Dow Jones forecast. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, edged lower to 1.85 million.

Also, orders for durable goods — generally big-ticket items such as aircraft, appliances and computers — unexpectedly fell 6.6% in June, compared with the forecast for a 0.3% increase. However, excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5%.

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Accounting

Business Transaction Recording For Financial Success

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Business Transaction Recording For Financial Success

In the world of financial management, accurate transaction recording is much more than a routine task—it is the foundation of fiscal integrity, operational transparency, and informed decision-making. By maintaining meticulous records, businesses ensure their financial ecosystem remains robust and reliable. This article explores the essential practices for precise transaction recording and its critical role in driving business success.

The Importance of Detailed Transaction Recording
At the heart of accurate financial management is detailed transaction recording. Each transaction must include not only the monetary amount but also its nature, the parties involved, and the exact date and time. This level of detail creates a comprehensive audit trail that supports financial analysis, regulatory compliance, and future decision-making. Proper documentation also ensures that stakeholders have a clear and trustworthy view of an organization’s financial health.

Establishing a Robust Chart of Accounts
A well-organized chart of accounts is fundamental to accurate transaction recording. This structured framework categorizes financial activities into meaningful groups, enabling businesses to track income, expenses, assets, and liabilities consistently. Regularly reviewing and updating the chart of accounts ensures it stays relevant as the business evolves, allowing for meaningful comparisons and trend analysis over time.

Leveraging Modern Accounting Software
Advanced accounting software has revolutionized how businesses handle transaction recording. These tools automate repetitive tasks like data entry, synchronize transactions in real-time with bank feeds, and perform validation checks to minimize errors. Features such as cloud integration and customizable reports make these platforms invaluable for maintaining accurate, accessible, and up-to-date financial records.

The Power of Double-Entry Bookkeeping
Double-entry bookkeeping remains a cornerstone of precise transaction management. By ensuring every transaction affects at least two accounts, this system inherently checks for errors and maintains balance within the financial records. For example, recording both a debit and a credit ensures that discrepancies are caught early, providing a reliable framework for accurate reporting.

The Role of Timely Documentation
Prompt transaction recording is another critical factor in financial accuracy. Delays in documentation can lead to missing or incorrect entries, which may skew financial reports and complicate decision-making. A culture that prioritizes timely and accurate record-keeping ensures that a company always has real-time insights into its financial position, helping it adapt to changing conditions quickly.

Regular Reconciliation for Financial Integrity
Periodic reconciliations act as a vital checkpoint in transaction recording. Whether conducted daily, weekly, or monthly, these reviews compare recorded transactions with external records, such as bank statements, to identify discrepancies. Early detection of errors ensures that records remain accurate and that the company’s financial statements are trustworthy.

Conclusion
Mastering the art of accurate transaction recording is far more than a compliance requirement—it is a strategic necessity. By implementing detailed recording practices, leveraging advanced technology, and adhering to time-tested principles like double-entry bookkeeping, businesses can ensure financial transparency and operational efficiency. For finance professionals and business leaders, precise transaction recording is the bedrock of informed decision-making, stakeholder confidence, and long-term success.

With these strategies, businesses can build a reliable financial foundation that supports growth, resilience, and the ability to navigate an ever-changing economic landscape.

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Economics

A protest against America’s TikTok ban is mired in contradiction

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AS A SHUTDOWN looms, TikTok in America has the air of the last day of school. The Brits are saying goodbye to the Americans. Australians are waiting in the wings to replace banished American influencers. And American users are bidding farewell to their fictional Chinese spies—a joke referencing the American government’s accusation that China is using the app (which is owned by ByteDance, a Chinese tech giant) to surveil American citizens.

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Economics

Home insurance costs soar as climate events surge, Treasury Dept. says

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Firefighters battle flames during the Eaton Fire in Pasadena, California, U.S., Jan. 7, 2025.

Mario Anzuoni | Reuters

Climate-related natural disasters are driving up insurance costs for homeowners in the most-affected regions, according to a Treasury Department report released Thursday.

In a voluminous study covering 2018-22 and including some data beyond that, the department found that there were 84 disasters costing $1 billion or more, excluding floods, and that they caused a combined $609 billion in damages. Floods are not covered under homeowner policies.

During the period, costs for policies across all categories rose 8.7% faster than the rate of inflation. However, the burden went largely to those living in areas most hit by climate-related events.

For consumers living in the 20% of zip codes with the highest expected annual losses, premiums averaged $2,321, or 82% more than those living in the 20% of lowest-risk zip codes.

“Homeowners insurance is becoming more costly and less accessible for consumers as the costs of climate-related events pose growing challenges to both homeowners and insurers alike,” said Nellie Liang, undersecretary of the Treasury for domestic finance.

The report comes as rescue workers continue to battle raging wildfires in the Los Angeles area. At least 25 people have been killed and 180,000 homeowners have been displaced.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the costs from the fires are still unknown, but noted that the report reflected an ongoing serious problem. During the period studied, there was nearly double the annual total of disasters declared for climate-related events as in the period of 1960-2010 combined.

“Moreover, this [wildfire disaster] does not stand alone as evidence of this impact, with other climate-related events leading to challenges for Americans in finding affordable insurance coverage – from severe storms in the Great Plans to hurricanes in the Southeast,” Yellen said in a statement. “This report identifies alarming trends of rising costs of insurance, all of which threaten the long-term prosperity of American families.”

Both homeowners and insurers in the most-affected areas were paying in other ways as well.

Nonrenewal rates in the highest-risk areas were about 80% higher than those in less-risky areas, while insurers paid average claims of $24,000 in higher-risk areas compared to $19,000 in lowest-risk regions.

In the Southeast, which includes states such as Florida and Louisiana that frequently are slammed by hurricanes, the claim frequency was 20% higher than the national average.

In the Southwest, which includes California, wildfires tore through 3.3 million acres during the time period, with five events causing more than $100 million in damages. The average loss claim was nearly $27,000, or nearly 50% higher than the national average. Nonrenewal rates for insurance were 23.5% higher than the national average.

The Treasury Department released its findings with just three days left in the current administration. Treasury officials said they hope the administration under President-elect Donald Trump uses the report as a springboard for action.

“We certainly are hopeful that our successors stay focused on this issue and continue to produce important research on this issue and think about important and creative ways to address it,” an official said.

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