An attendant holds 1-kilogram gold bars on Feb. 17, 2025.
Akos Stiller/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Gold prices are popping. But investors should avoid the temptation to chase a shiny object, investment experts said.
The SPDR Gold Shares fund (GLD), which tracks the price of gold bullion, is up about 11% in 2025 as of 2 p.m. ET Tuesday. Returns are up about 42% over the past year. (Prices were down more than 1% on Tuesday.)
Gold futures prices are also up about 10% year-to-date and currently 36% higher compared to the price a year ago.
By comparison, the S&P 500 U.S. stock index is up about 1.5% in 2025 and 17% in the past year.
Lee Baker, a certified financial planner, said he wasn’t getting client calls about gold a year ago. Now, he fields them regularly.
He thinks investors would be wise to remember the classic rule from Warren Buffett, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.”
“It feels to me everyone is starting to get greedy as it pertains to gold,” said Baker, owner and president of Claris Financial Advisors, based in Atlanta, and a member of CNBC’s Advisor Council.
The typical investor shouldn’t have an allocation to gold that exceeds 3% of a diversified portfolio, Baker said.
Investors enticed by lofty returns may make a knee-jerk reaction and buy a big chunk of gold (literally or figuratively) — and, in the process, make the common investment mistake of buying high and selling low, he said.
“If you’re going to make money with gold you need to buy and sell it — and hopefully sell it at right time,” Baker said. “And if you’re getting in now, are you buying at a peak? I don’t know.”
Why gold prices are up
Investors often perceive gold as a safe haven in times of turmoil and buy the asset when there are high levels of uncertainty, explained Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist and head of global equities and real assets at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
“I think we can check that box right now,” he said.
That said, “in true times of crisis, bonds have shone brighter than gold has,” Samana said.
Additionally, many investors buy gold because they think it’s a good inflation hedge, Samana said. (The data doesn’t always support that investment thesis.) Investors have been concerned by recent data that suggests progress on bringing down inflation may have stalled, he said.
U.S. sanctions on Russia dating to 2022 have been the “turbocharger” for gold returns over the past year or more, Samana said.
The sanctions led some central banks — in China, most notably — to buy more gold instead of U.S. Treasury bonds to avoid the potential difficulty of accessing assets denominated in U.S. dollars during a future geopolitical conflict, Samana said.
That has driven up gold demand higher compared to the price a year ago — and prices with it, he said.
“Don’t chase” gold returns, Samana said: “As a whole, you probably want to hold off on precious metals at [current] levels.”
Experts don’t expect gold to continue to shine.
“There’s no reason in my mind gold will continue to have a significant uptrend, barring — and I certainly hope not — some sort of protracted war,” Baker said.
How to invest in gold
Sanshandao Gold mine in Laizhou, Shandong province, China, on Jan. 17, 2025.
CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images
Baker recommends getting investment exposure to gold via a fund like an exchange-traded fund or by investing in the stocks of gold mining companies, for example, instead of buying physical gold.
Funds and stocks are generally more liquid in the event an investor needs to sell the asset, Baker said. Investors with a lot of physical gold likely have the additional hassle of storing it somewhere and insuring it, Baker said. Insurance may cost investors 1% to 2%or more of their gold’s value per year.
Similar to Baker, Samana believes it may be okay for investors to hold 1% to 2% of a well-diversified portfolio in gold.
Investors interested in buying gold should consider it as a piece of a broader commodities portfolio, which likely includes allocations to energy, agriculture and base metals like copper alongside precious metals like gold, Samana said.
Wells Fargo’s investment models have an overall commodities allocation that ranges from 2% for conservative investors to 7% for more aggressive growth, he said.
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks at an event about the economy at the Circa Resort and Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S., January 25, 2025.
Leah Millis | Reuters
The Senate on Tuesday unanimously passed the No Tax on Tips Act in a surprise vote, which could boost momentum for an idea floated by President Donald Trump during his 2024 campaign.
If enacted, the legislation would create a federal income tax deduction of up to $25,000 per year, with some limitations. The tax break applies to workers who typically receive cash tips reported to their employer for payroll tax withholdings, according to a summary of the bill.
To qualify for the deduction, there’s a $160,000 earnings limit for 2025. That limit would be indexed for inflation yearly.
Currently, workers who receive cash tips of $20 or more monthly must report those earnings to employers, according to the IRS. Cash tips can include funds received directly from customers, tip-sharing from other employees or tips paid via credit card.
Lawmaker support for a tax break on tip income
During the 2024 presidential campaign, Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris both called for no tax on tips during appearances in Nevada.
The bill advanced by the House Ways and Means Committee last week also includes a no tax on tips provision. If enacted, workers could deduct all “qualified tips” from 2025 through 2028. Tips must be reported to qualify for the deduction. However, this could still change before the full House floor vote.
“Whether it passes free-standing or as part of the bigger bill, one way or another, no tax on tips is going to become law and give real relief to hard-working Americans,” Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas., said from the Senate floor on Tuesday.
Cruz introduced the bipartisan bill in January with Sens. Jacky Rosen and Catherine Cortez Masto from Nevada.
Who benefits from no tax on tips
In 2023, there were roughly 4 million U.S. workers in tipped occupations, representing 2.5% of all employment, according to estimates from The Budget Lab at Yale University.
“This is a very narrow subset of the workforce,” said Alex Muresianu, senior policy analyst at the Tax Foundation.
Tipped occupations include jobs in restaurants and hotels, as well as courier services like taxis, rideshares and food delivery services, he said.
What’s more, a good chunk of tipped workers are part-time employees, and they wouldn’t see a significant benefit from a tip exemption, he said. Many such workers already don’t pay federal income tax because their earnings fall under the standard deduction.
“For the lowest income tipped workers, it provides no marginal benefit” Muresianu said. “It would benefit moderate to middle income workers substantially.”
Policy ‘clearly violates some principle of fairness’
A no tax on tips policy could create several issues, Muresianu said.
For example, there could be the introduction of tips in new occupations, or a shift in compensation in already tipped occupations toward a greater reliance on tips. It’s also possible that income could be misclassified as tips to take advantage of the tax benefit, he said.
“It’s tough to model or project because tipping is a social behavior, not strictly an economic transaction,” Muresianu said.
From a general economic standpoint, it doesn’t make sense to treat one type of income earned in specific industries differently than another type of income, he said. Take, for example, a waitress and a retail cashier: Both earn $35,000, but the waitress makes $10,000 in tips, which would be tax exempt.
“Why does the cashier pay full income tax on her income but the waitress gets a very substantial tax exemption?” he said. “That clearly violates some principle of fairness.”
A visitor waves an American flag near the U.S. Capitol, as the U.S. House of Representatives considers U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax-cut bill, on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 19, 2025.
Nathan Howard | Reuters
A tax package House Republicans may pass as soon as this week would kill a slew of consumer tax breaks tied to clean energy, as currently drafted. If it becomes law, households interested in the tax breaks may have to rush to claim them this year, experts said.
The Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act, which made historic investments to combat climate change, created or enhanced those tax breaks.
Most would be terminated after 2025, about seven years earlier than under current law.
“Based on the existing proposed language, if you’ve been considering an EV or planning to get one, now is the time to do it,” Alexia Melendez Martineau, senior policy manager at Plug In America, wrote in an e-mail.
Termination of EV tax credits
Halfpoint Images | Moment | Getty Images
Consumers who buy a new EV can claim a tax break worth up to $7,500. One for used EVs is worth up to $4,000. Car dealers can also pass along a $7,500 credit to consumers who lease an electric vehicle.
The House tax proposal would terminate these tax credits after 2025. The Inflation Reduction Act made them available through 2032.
A “special rule” would keep the $7,500 credit in place for some new EVs for an additional year, through 2026. However, it would only be available for new vehicles from automakers that haven’t yet sold 200,000 EVs. That would disqualify EVs from companies like General Motors (GM), Tesla (TSLA) and Toyota (TM).
About 7.5% of all new-vehicle sales in the first quarter of 2025 were EVs, an increase from 7% a year earlier, according to Cox Automotive. Tax credits for EVs have been available in some form since 2008, when George W. Bush approved them.
The Inflation Reduction Act made it easier for consumers to access the EV credit, by allowing dealers to issue the tax break to consumers upfront at the point of sale instead of waiting until tax season. Consumers who buy an EV in the near term would be wise to pick this option, experts said.
“We recommend taking the upfront rebate at the dealership, as it reduces the price you pay now and shifts liability to the dealer to manage getting the credit from the IRS,” Martineau said.
Axing home efficiency tax credits
Owngarden | Moment | Getty Images
House Republicans also aim to axe various tax breaks tied to making existing homes more energy-efficient.
These breaks defray the cost of projects like installing insulation, solar panels, heat pumps, and installing energy-efficient windows and doors, for example.
One — the energy efficient home improvement credit, also known as the 25C credit — is worth up to 30% of the cost of a qualifying project. Taxpayers can claim up to $3,200 per year on their tax returns, with the overall dollar amount tied to specific projects.
Another — the residential clean energy credit, or the 25D credit — is also worth 30% of qualifying project costs. It doesn’t have an annual or lifetime dollar, except for certain limits on fuel cells, according to the IRS.
They are currently available through 2032. (The 25D credit phases down to 26% for installations in 2033 and 22% for those in 2034.)
Both tax credits would be repealed after 2025 under the House bill.
The 25C and 25D credits have been available in some form since 1978 and 2005, respectively, according to economists at the Haas Energy Institute at the University of California, Berkeley.
More than 3.4 million U.S. households claimed one of the credits in 2023, receiving more than $8 billion, according to the Treasury Department.
Experts recommend that consumers considering a home-efficiency project have it completed by year’s end to be able to claim a tax credit.
“If a homeowner was looking to take advantage of the 25C tax credit, under what is being proposed [by the House] they’d need to ensure their system was put in service this year,” said Kara Saul Rinaldi, president and CEO of AnnDyl Policy Group, an energy and environmental policy strategy firm.
The House tax bill may change
Republicans are eyeing the climate tax breaks as a way to raise money for a sprawling package that also extends measures from President Trump’s 2017 tax law and cuts taxes on overtime and tips, for example.
The House tax plan’s repeal or modification of clean energy credits — including those for EVs and home efficiency — would raise $707 billion over a decade, according to an analysis published Monday by the Penn Wharton Budget Model.
As drafted, the overall House bill would raise the U.S. deficit by a net $3.3 trillion over a decade, after accounting for spending cuts, Penn Wharton said.
The Senate also needs to pass the measure before it heads to the president’s desk.
“Republicans are far from united, with deficit hawks pushing for greater deficit reduction, centrists objecting to steep welfare cuts and blue-state Republicans fighting for bigger State and Local Tax (SALT) exemptions,” Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a research note on Tuesday.
UNITED STATES – MARCH 31: Rep. Billy Long, R-Mo., is seen during the House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Communications and Technology hearing titled Connecting America: Oversight of the FCC, in Rayburn Building on Thursday, March 31, 2022.
Tom Williams | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images
Senate lawmakers pressed President Donald Trump‘s pick for IRS Commissioner, former Missouri Congressman Billy Long, about his opinions on presidential power over the agency, use of taxpayer data and his ties to dubious tax credits.
Long, who worked as an auctioneer before serving six terms in the House of Representatives, answered Senate Finance Committee queries during a confirmation hearing Tuesday.
One of the key themes from Democrats was Trump’s power over the agency, and Long told the committee, “the IRS will not, should not be politicized on my watch.”
Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., who provided her questions to Long in advance, asked whether Trump could legally end Harvard University’s tax-exempt status. If permitted, the move could have broad implications for the President’s power over the agency, she argued.
However, Long didn’t answer the question directly.
“I don’t intend to let anybody direct me to start [an] audit for political reasons,” he said.
Ties to dubious tax credits
Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., scrutinized Long’s online promotion of the pandemic-era employee retention tax credit worth thousands per eligible employee. The tax break sparked a cottage industry of scrupulous companies pushing the tax break to small businesses that didn’t qualify.
“I didn’t say everyone qualifies,” Long said. “I said virtually everyone qualifies.”
Senatorsalso asked about Long’s referral income from companies pushing so-called “tribal tax credits,” which the IRS has told Democratic lawmakers don’t exist.
“I did not have any perception whatsoever that these did not exist,” Long told the committee.
Senate Democrats also raised questions about donations people connected to those credits made to Long’s dormant Senate campaign, after Trump announced his nomination to head the IRS.
Direct File ‘one of the hottest topics’
While Senate Democrats grilled Long on his record, Republicans focused on questions about taxpayer service. Several Republican lawmakers voiced support for Long, including the committee chairman Mike Crapo, R-Idaho.
If confirmed by the Senate, Long could mean a shift for the agency, which previously embarked on a multibillion-dollar revamp, including upgrades to customer service, technology and a free filing program, known as Direct File.
When asked about the future of Direct File, Long said he planned to promptly examine the program, describing it as “one of the hottest topics at the IRS.”
‘An unconventional pick’
Since former IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel’s resignation in January, there have been three other leaders for the agency. If confirmed, Long would serve as IRS Commissioner for the remainder of the term through Nov. 12, 2027. The date for the vote isn’t yet confirmed.
Mark Everson, who served as IRS commissioner from 2003 to 2007, described Long as “an unconventional pick,” compared with the experience profiles of previous IRS leaders.
But Long’s years in Congress will provide “credibility up on the Hill with the people who matter, which will be important,” Everson, who is currently vice chairman at Alliant, a management consulting company, previously told CNBC.
Long may be in a “better position than others to argue for the appropriate independence of the agency,” he said.