Personal Finance
Here’s what President-elect Trump’s tariff plan may mean for your wallet
Donald Trump speaks at a rally on Nov. 5, 2024 in Grand Rapids, Michigan.
Scott Olson | Getty Images News | Getty Images
President-elect Donald Trump won Tuesday’s presidential election partly by addressing Americans’ economic anxieties over higher prices.
Nearly half of all voters said they were worse off financially than they were four years ago, the highest level in any election since 2008, according to an NBC News exit poll.
But a cornerstone of Trump’s economic policy — sweeping new tariffs on imported goods — would likely exacerbate the very Biden-era inflation Trump lambasted on the campaign trail, according to economists.
There’s still much uncertainty around how and when such tariffs might be implemented. If they were to take effect, they would likely raise prices for American consumers and disproportionately hurt lower earners, economists said.
The typical U.S. household would pay several thousand more dollars each year on clothing, furniture, appliances and other goods, estimates suggest.
“It’s bad for consumers,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s. “It’s a tax on consumers in the form of higher prices for imported goods.”
“It’s inflationary,” he added.
He and other economists predict the proposed tariffs would also lead to job loss and slower economic growth, on a net basis.
The Trump campaign didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment from CNBC on the impact of tariffs or their scope.
How Trump’s tariff proposal might work
A tariff is a tax placed on imported goods.
Tariffs have been around for centuries. However, their importance as a source of government revenue has declined, especially among wealthy nations, according to Monica Morlacco, an international trade expert and assistant professor of economics at the University of Southern California.
Now, the U.S. largely uses tariffs as a protectionist policy to shield certain industries from foreign competition, according to the Brookings Institution, a think tank.
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Trump imposed some tariffs in his first term — on washing machines, solar panels, steel, aluminum and a range of Chinese goods, for example. The Biden administration kept many of those intact.
However, Trump’s proposals from the campaign trail are much broader, economists said.
He has floated a 10% or 20% universal tariff on all imports and a tariff of at least 60% on Chinese goods, for example. Last month, the president-elect suggested vehicles from Mexico have a tariff of 200% or more, and in September threatened to impose a similar amount on John Deere if the company were to shift some production from the U.S. to Mexico.
“To me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is ‘tariff,'” Trump said at the Chicago Economic Club in October. “It’s my favorite word. It needs a public relations firm.”
How much tariffs cost consumers
A 20% worldwide tariff and a 60% levy on Chinese goods would raise costs by $3,000 in 2025 for the average U.S. household, according to an October analysis by the Tax Policy Center. Trump’s plan would reduce average after-tax incomes by almost 3%, according to the tax think tank.
Additionally, a 200% Mexico-vehicle tariff would increase household costs by an average $600, TPC said.
American consumers would lose $46 billion to $78 billion a year in spending power on apparel, toys, furniture, household appliances, footwear and travel goods, according to a National Retail Federation analysis published Monday.
“I feel pretty confident saying [tariffs] are a price-raising policy,” said Mike Pugliese, senior economist at Wells Fargo Economics. “The question is just the magnitude.”
The reason for these higher costs: Tariffs are paid by U.S. companies that import goods. The “vast majority” of that additional cost is passed on to American consumers, while only some of it is paid for by U.S. distributors and retailers or by foreign producers, said Zandi of Moody’s.
Philip Daniele, president and CEO of AutoZone, alluded to this dynamic in a recent earnings call.
“If we get tariffs, we will pass those tariff costs back to the consumer,” Daniele said in September.
The U.S. imported about $3.2 trillion of goods in 2022, for example, said Olivia Cross, a North America economist at Capital Economics. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests a 10% across-the-board tariff would be roughly equivalent to a $320 billion tax on consumers, Cross said.
Tariffs reduce economic growth and jobs
Of course, the financial fallout likely wouldn’t be quite that large, Cross said.
Trump’s plan could boost the strength of the U.S. dollar, and there may also be tariff exemptions for certain categories of goods or imports from certain countries, all of which would likely blunt the overall impact, Cross said.
A 20% universal tariff and 60% Chinese import tax would also generate about $4.5 trillion in net new revenue for the federal government over 10 years, according to the Tax Policy Center.
“The administration could take tariff revenue and redistribute to households via tax cuts in some form or another,” explained Pugliese of Wells Fargo.
Trump has proposed various tax breaks on the campaign trail. Additionally, tax cuts enacted by Trump in 2017 are due to expire next year, and tariff revenue may potentially be used to extend them, should Congress pass such legislation, economists said.
However, the typical U.S. household would still lose $2,600 a year from Trump’s tariff plan, even after accounting for an extension of the 2017 tax cuts, according to an analysis by the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
The U.S. economy would also likely suffer due to other tariff “cross currents,” Zandi said.
While U.S. companies that financially benefit from protectionist tariff policies may add jobs, the total economy would likely shed jobs on a net basis, Zandi said.
This is because countries on which the U.S. imposes tariffs would likely retaliate with their own tariffs on U.S. exports, hurting the bottom lines of domestic businesses that export goods, for example, Zandi said.
Higher prices for imported goods would likely also lead to lower consumer demand, weighing on business profits and perhaps leading to layoffs, he said.
In June, the Tax Foundation estimated Trump’s tariff plan would shrink U.S. employment by 684,000 full-time jobs and reduce its gross domestic product, a measure of economic output, by at least 0.8%.
Capital Economics expects the Trump administration would introduce tariffs — and a curb on immigration — in the second quarter of next year, the group said in a note Tuesday night. Together, those policies would cut Gross Domestic Product growth by about 1% from the second half of 2025 through the first half of 2026 and add 1 percentage point to inflation, it said.
Sdi Productions | E+ | Getty Images
Nearly 3 million individuals are poised to see their Social Security benefits increase, thanks to new changes signed into law by President Joe Biden this week. But with the higher checks could come additional tax burdens.
The Social Security Fairness Act — which passed by a bipartisan majority in both the House and Senate — ends reductions of Social Security benefits for certain individuals who also receive pension income from work in the public sector as firefighters, police officers, teachers and local, state and federal employees.
Those beneficiaries are set to see an increase to their monthly benefit checks. Because the legislation applies to benefits paid throughout 2024, they will also receive lump-sum payments to make up for that time.
The details of how those increases will be implemented are now being determined, according to the Social Security Administration.
In total, the benefit increases will cost $196 billion over a decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office. The additional outlay will move Social Security’s trust fund depletion dates six months closer. The program’s combined trust funds may pay full benefits until 2035, at which point just 83% of scheduled benefits may be payable, the program’s trustees projected last year.
How Social Security benefits may change
About 2.1 million beneficiaries — those who were affected by the Windfall Elimination Provision, or WEP — may see $360 more in monthly benefits on average, according to CBO estimates as of December 2025. The WEP, which has now been eliminated, reduced Social Security benefits for workers who also had pension or disability benefits from jobs where they did not pay Social Security payroll taxes.
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Additionally, about 380,000 spouses would see average benefit increases of $700 and 390,000 surviving spouses would see an average of $1,190 more, according to CBO’s estimates for December 2025.
Those beneficiaries were affected by the now-defunct Government Pension Offset, or GPO, which reduced Social Security benefits for spouses, widows and widowers who also receive their own pensions from public sector work.
The elimination of the provisions in many ways simplifies retirement income planning for affected beneficiaries, financial advisors say.
“For the people who are affected by this, you’re looking at a pretty significant increase, in many cases, of what their retirement income is going to be,” said Michael Daley, director of marketing at HealthView Services. “It’s good news for them.”
For financial planners and their clients, the challenge now is gauging how much of a benefit increase to expect and when to expect it, said Joe Elsasser, founder and president of Covisum, a Social Security claiming software company.
The extra income may also present some complications when it comes to affected beneficiaries’ taxes and Medicare premiums, experts say.
Beneficiaries could see higher taxes on benefits
Social Security beneficiaries may have their benefits taxed if their income falls over certain thresholds, experts say.
The additional money may also push some affected beneficiaries into higher tax brackets, according to HealthView Services.
Notably, President-elect Donald Trump has said he wants to nix taxes on Social Security benefit income, though it remains to be seen whether that change will be put into effect. However, per current rules, up to 85% of Social Security benefit income may be taxed.
The income thresholds upon which those levies are based are not adjusted annually for inflation. Consequently, more beneficiaries are subject to those taxes on benefits over time, including middle class households, Daley said.
Those levies are determined based on a formula called combined income — the sum of adjusted gross income, nontaxable interest and half of Social Security benefits.
Individuals pay taxes on up to 50% of their benefits if their combined income is between $25,000 and $34,000, or for married couples with between $32,000 and $44,000.
Individuals may pay taxes on up to 85% of their benefits if their combined income is more than $34,000; or for married couples with more than $44,000.
“Because Social Security benefits are taxed differently than everything else, people are going to really want to pay attention to their other sources of income,” Elsasser said of the anticipated benefit increases and lump sum payments.
For example, if a retiree has both a taxable account and traditional individual retirement account, they may want to prioritize withdrawals from the taxable account because only the gains would be taxed rather than the entire withdrawal, Elsasser explained. In the event the lump-sum payment of retroactive Social Security benefits is not distributed, they may take an IRA withdrawal later in the year.
Beneficiaries may see higher Medicare costs
Additional benefit income for individuals affected by the Social Security Fairness Act may also result in higher income-based surcharges for Medicare Parts B and D.
Medicare beneficiaries with higher incomes must pay what’s known as income-related monthly adjustment amounts, or IRMAAs, for their Part B and Part D premiums.
“If you get a lump sum but you’re not paying attention to your other incomes, you could unwittingly be pushed into higher Medicare premiums two years down the road,” Elsasser said.
That will mostly be a concern for people who are on the cusp of the income thresholds, he said.
In 2025, Medicare Part B beneficiaries who file individual tax returns with $106,000 or less in modified adjusted gross income — or married couples who file jointly with $212,000 or less — pay a standard monthly premium of $185 per month.
Beneficiaries above those income thresholds pay higher Part B premium payments, based on an IRMAA. This year’s rates are based on income on tax returns filed in 2023.
In 2025, Part D beneficiaries over the $106,000 threshold for individuals and $212,000 for married couples are also subject to income-related monthly adjustment amounts in addition to their plan premiums. Those monthly premiums are also based on yearly income reported on tax filings for 2023. In 2025, the national base Part D premium is $36.78.
Steps to take now
Beneficiaries who are affected by the Social Security Fairness Act should consider consulting with a financial advisor to assess the implications of the change on their personal financial circumstances, said Ron Mastrogiovanni, chairman and CEO of HealthView Services.
Additionally, it would help to sit down with a certified public accountant when filing their taxes to plan for 2025, he said.
The Social Security Administration also plans to provide more guidance on the new law as more details become available.
For now, the agency recommends verifying that direct deposit and mailing address it has on file is still accurate. To update that information, the Social Security recommends changing it online or calling or visiting a Social Security office in person.
Some individuals may now become eligible for Social Security benefits for the first time, now that the WEP and GPO provisions have been eliminated.
To file for benefits, the Social Security Administration recommends either filing online or scheduling an appointment with the agency.
Erin Collins, national taxpayer advocate at the Taxpayer Advocate Service, speaks at a Senate Appropriations subcommittee hearing in Washington, D.C., on May 19, 2021.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
As the IRS faces scrutiny from a Republican-controlled Congress, the agency’s internal watchdog has urged lawmakers to preserve taxpayer service and technology funding.
The National Taxpayer Advocate on Wednesday released its annual report to Congress, which criticized the “extreme imbalance in funding priorities” when comparing the billions of dollars allocated via the Inflation Reduction Act.
While the tens of billions earmarked for enforcement has “generated controversy,” there’s been “strong bipartisan support” for taxpayer services and technology modernization, wrote Erin Collins, national taxpayer advocate.
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Of the original $78.9 billion Inflation Reduction Act funding, the legislation earmarked 58% for enforcement and 32% for operations support, according to the report. By comparison, the budget allocated 4% for taxpayer service and 6% for technology modernization.
With sufficient funding for services and technology, “taxpayer experiences will become fairer and more efficient, which likely will improve compliance and reduce the need for costly backend enforcement,” Collins wrote.
During fiscal year 2024, the IRS collected $98.7 billion through enforcement, which was less than 2% of all revenue, according to the agency’s 2024 financial report. The remaining 98% of federal taxes were “self-assessed” via annual tax returns and timely payments.
If Congress reduces enforcement funding, it shouldn’t include commensurate cuts to taxpayer services and technology, which could “inadvertently throw the baby out with the bathwater,” Collins wrote.
With added costs to “pull itself out of the pandemic” and yearly appropriations held steady amid rising costs over the past few years, the IRS has needed to spend part of its multi-year funding to maintain current operations, she added.
Congress rescinded $20 billion in IRS funding as part of a 2023 budget deal, and Republicans have vowed to make further cuts. Another $20 billion was automatically clawed back when lawmakers in December extended the 2023 deal to avoid a government shutdown.
Further IRS funding cuts could be possible in 2025 with Republican control of Congress and the White House.
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