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Here’s what upcoming budget negotiations may mean for Social Security

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As lawmakers in Washington, D.C., work to rein in government spending, some advocates and consumers are concerned that Social Security could see cuts.

Congress faces a March 14 deadline to extend funding for the federal government in order to avoid a government shutdown. Meanwhile, the Trump administration had hoped to slash $2 trillion in government spending.

Because Social Security accounts for 21% of the budget, or $1.5 trillion in spending in 2024, there are concerns that the program could be a target.

Here’s what experts are keeping a watchful eye on with regard to Social Security in the upcoming negotiations.

Benefit cuts are off the table in budget reconciliation

Last year, the Republican Study Committee, a large group of House Republicans, released a budget proposal to cut federal spending by $17.1 trillion over 10 years.

That included a proposal to raise the Social Security retirement age to 69. Currently, retirees are eligible for the full benefits they’ve earned at age 66 to 67, depending on their date of birth.

With that change, anyone born after 1971 would see their benefit cuts an average of 13%, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Importantly, no changes can be made to Social Security benefits in upcoming budget reconciliation legislation, due to the Byrd Rule. That law prevents the addition of extraneous provisions, according to Maria Freese, senior legislative representative at the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare.

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But a proposal to raise the retirement age came up during last-minute Senate negotiations over the Social Security Fairness Act in December, and could come up again, experts say.

“Any opportunity that they [Congress] have, I could see it coming up,” Freese said. “They just can’t put it in reconciliation.”

For his part, President Donald Trump said he is opposed to cutting Social Security, except for any waste, fraud or abuse of the program.

Underfunding agency would hurt customer service

Without additional funding, it may take the agency more time to implement the Social Security Fairness Act, a new law that provides benefit increases to more than 3 million beneficiaries, experts have said.

“Congress has consistently and repeatedly underfunded that agency,” Freese said.

That has left the agency more susceptible to criticism, particularly with recent scrutiny of beneficiaries over age 100, she said.

“Part of what is among the first things to go are upgrades to computer systems and things that are considered non essential,” Freese added.

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SNAP benefits, food stamps face cuts under GOP tax bill

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People shop at a grocery store in Brooklyn on May 13, 2025 in New York City.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

As Republicans push forward with the “big, beautiful” tax bill, federal food assistance may see big cuts.

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, may be cut about 30% under the terms of the bill, which would be the “biggest cut in the program’s history,” according to Ty Jones Cox, vice president for food assistance policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

SNAP, formerly known as food stamps, currently provides food assistance to more than 40 million individuals including children, seniors and adults with disabilities.

Yet cuts to the program proposed by the House — which would shrink the program’s funding by about $300 billion through 2034 — would put those benefits at risk.

“The House Republican plan would take away food assistance for millions who struggle to afford the high cost of groceries, including families with children and other vulnerable people with low incomes,” Cox said during a Tuesday webinar hosted by the CBPP, a progressive think tank.

The SNAP reform efforts come amid a broader effort to reduce waste and fraud in government programs. SNAP, like other government benefits, can be susceptible to improper or fraudulent payments.

The “one big, beautiful bill restores integrity to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program,” House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson, R-Pa., said in a May 14 statement, through “long-overdue accountability incentives to control costs and end executive and state overreach.”

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Many Americans cite high food costs as a top economic concern, according to an April Pew Research Center survey. If new tariff policies are put into effect, that could prompt food prices to go higher.

Moreover, the proposed SNAP cuts come as some experts say the U.S. is facing higher recession risks. In previous downturns, every additional dollar spent on SNAP generates about $1.54 in returns to the economy, according to Elaine Waxman, senior fellow at the Urban Institute’s tax and income support division.

“People spend SNAP dollars right away, and they spend them locally,” Waxman said.

The proposed SNAP cuts would largely happen by expanding work requirements to qualify for benefits and by cutting federal funding for food benefits and administration and leaving it up to states to make up the difference.

Federal cuts would leave states with tough choices

The largest cut to SNAP would come from federal funding cuts to basic SNAP benefits ranging from 5% to 25% starting in 2028, according to CBPP.

It would then be up to states to find ways to make up for that benefit shortfall, which could include making it more difficult to enroll in the program or finding other localized cuts to the program, according to CBPP.

“The change in the bill that is most dramatic is asking states to share part of the benefit cost,” Waxman said. “That’s new; since SNAP was originated, the federal government has always paid the full cost of the benefits.”

Notably, it would also mark the first time in the history of SNAP that the federal government would no longer ensure children in every state have access to food benefits, according to CBPP.

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In addition, the proposal also seeks to make it so states pay a larger portion of the program’s administrative costs.

How states may react to the changes may vary. In worst-case scenarios, some states could even opt out of the program altogether, according to CBPP.

However, Waxman said most states will likely try to protect benefits because they’re “so critical,” even though they are not legally obligated to offer the program.

“The vast majority, if not all, will try to do something,” Waxman said.

In addition to the benefits SNAP provides to individuals and families, it also provides an “integral” part of economies, Waxman said. In lower-income rural areas, for example, rural grocery stores that rely on SNAP customers would see food spending go down.

“It has all these ripples that will hurt a lot of people other than just the people who are on the program,” Waxman said.

Work requirements may cost families $254 per month

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., at the House Democrats’ news conference on Medicaid and SNAP cuts proposed by the Republicans’ reconciliation process.

Bill Clark | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images

Work requirements for SNAP already make it so certain individuals must work at least 80 hours per month to qualify for the program’s benefits. That includes individuals ages 18 to 54 who are able to work and who have no dependents. Current policy also limits SNAP benefits for certain individuals to three months within a 36-month period unless work requirements are met.

The proposed legislation would expand that those work requirements, according to the Urban Institute, by:

  • extending the requirements to households with children, unless they have a child under age seven;
  • expanding the work requirements and time limits to individuals ages 55 through 64;
  • limiting states’ flexibility to request waivers of the work requirement policies in high unemployment areas; and
  • reducing discretionary exemptions from the time limits that states may provide.

Expanded work requirements would affect 2.7 million families and 5.4 million individuals, according to a new report from the Urban Institute.

That includes 1.5 million families who would lose benefits entirely and 1.2 million families who would receive lower benefits. It also includes 1.8 million people, including 48,000 children, who would lose benefits entirely; and 3.6 million people, including 1.5 million children, who would receive lower benefits, according to the Urban Institute.

Families that lose some or all their benefits would lose $254 per month on average, according to the research. Meanwhile, families with children would lose $229 per month on average, the Urban Institute found.

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What the Senate ‘no tax on tips’ bill could mean for workers

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U.S. President Donald Trump speaks at an event about the economy at the Circa Resort and Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S., January 25, 2025. 

Leah Millis | Reuters

The Senate on Tuesday unanimously passed the No Tax on Tips Act in a surprise vote, which could boost momentum for an idea floated by President Donald Trump during his 2024 campaign. 

If enacted, the legislation would create a federal income tax deduction of up to $25,000 per year, with some limitations. The tax break applies to workers who typically receive cash tips reported to their employer for payroll tax withholdings, according to a summary of the bill. 

To qualify for the deduction, there’s a $160,000 earnings limit for 2025. That limit would be indexed for inflation yearly.

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Currently, workers who receive cash tips of $20 or more monthly must report those earnings to employers, according to the IRS. Cash tips can include funds received directly from customers, tip-sharing from other employees or tips paid via credit card.

Lawmaker support for a tax break on tip income

During the 2024 presidential campaign, Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris both called for no tax on tips during appearances in Nevada.

The bill advanced by the House Ways and Means Committee last week also includes a no tax on tips provision. If enacted, workers could deduct all “qualified tips” from 2025 through 2028. Tips must be reported to qualify for the deduction. However, this could still change before the full House floor vote.

“Whether it passes free-standing or as part of the bigger bill, one way or another, no tax on tips is going to become law and give real relief to hard-working Americans,” Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas., said from the Senate floor on Tuesday. 

Cruz introduced the bipartisan bill in January with Sens. Jacky Rosen and Catherine Cortez Masto from Nevada.

Who benefits from no tax on tips

In 2023, there were roughly 4 million U.S. workers in tipped occupations, representing 2.5% of all employment, according to estimates from The Budget Lab at Yale University.

“This is a very narrow subset of the workforce,” said Alex Muresianu, senior policy analyst at the Tax Foundation. 

Tipped occupations include jobs in restaurants and hotels, as well as courier services like taxis, rideshares and food delivery services, he said.

What’s more, a good chunk of tipped workers are part-time employees, and they wouldn’t see a significant benefit from a tip exemption, he said. Many such workers already don’t pay federal income tax because their earnings fall under the standard deduction.

“For the lowest income tipped workers, it provides no marginal benefit” Muresianu said. “It would benefit moderate to middle income workers substantially.”

Policy ‘clearly violates some principle of fairness’

A no tax on tips policy could create several issues, Muresianu said.

For example, there could be the introduction of tips in new occupations, or a shift in compensation in already tipped occupations toward a greater reliance on tips. It’s also possible that income could be misclassified as tips to take advantage of the tax benefit, he said.

“It’s tough to model or project because tipping is a social behavior, not strictly an economic transaction,” Muresianu said.

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From a general economic standpoint, it doesn’t make sense to treat one type of income earned in specific industries differently than another type of income, he said. Take, for example, a waitress and a retail cashier: Both earn $35,000, but the waitress makes $10,000 in tips, which would be tax exempt.

“Why does the cashier pay full income tax on her income but the waitress gets a very substantial tax exemption?” he said. “That clearly violates some principle of fairness.”

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GOP aims to axe EV, green tax credits. Act now to claim the breaks

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A visitor waves an American flag near the U.S. Capitol, as the U.S. House of Representatives considers U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax-cut bill, on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 19, 2025.

Nathan Howard | Reuters

A tax package House Republicans may pass as soon as this week would kill a slew of consumer tax breaks tied to clean energy, as currently drafted. If it becomes law, households interested in the tax breaks may have to rush to claim them this year, experts said.

Tax breaks on the chopping block include ones for consumers who buy or lease electric vehicles, and others for households that make their homes more energy-efficient.

The Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act, which made historic investments to combat climate change, created or enhanced those tax breaks.

Most would be terminated after 2025, about seven years earlier than under current law.

“Based on the existing proposed language, if you’ve been considering an EV or planning to get one, now is the time to do it,” Alexia Melendez Martineau, senior policy manager at Plug In America, wrote in an e-mail.

Termination of EV tax credits

Halfpoint Images | Moment | Getty Images

Consumers who buy a new EV can claim a tax break worth up to $7,500. One for used EVs is worth up to $4,000. Car dealers can also pass along a $7,500 credit to consumers who lease an electric vehicle.

The House tax proposal would terminate these tax credits after 2025. The Inflation Reduction Act made them available through 2032.

A “special rule” would keep the $7,500 credit in place for some new EVs for an additional year, through 2026. However, it would only be available for new vehicles from automakers that haven’t yet sold 200,000 EVs. That would disqualify EVs from companies like General Motors (GM), Tesla (TSLA) and Toyota (TM).

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About 7.5% of all new-vehicle sales in the first quarter of 2025 were EVs, an increase from 7% a year earlier, according to Cox Automotive. Tax credits for EVs have been available in some form since 2008, when George W. Bush approved them.

The Inflation Reduction Act made it easier for consumers to access the EV credit, by allowing dealers to issue the tax break to consumers upfront at the point of sale instead of waiting until tax season. Consumers who buy an EV in the near term would be wise to pick this option, experts said.

“We recommend taking the upfront rebate at the dealership, as it reduces the price you pay now and shifts liability to the dealer to manage getting the credit from the IRS,” Martineau said.

Axing home efficiency tax credits

Owngarden | Moment | Getty Images

House Republicans also aim to axe various tax breaks tied to making existing homes more energy-efficient.

These breaks defray the cost of projects like installing insulation, solar panels, heat pumps, and installing energy-efficient windows and doors, for example.

One — the energy efficient home improvement credit, also known as the 25C credit — is worth up to 30% of the cost of a qualifying project. Taxpayers can claim up to $3,200 per year on their tax returns, with the overall dollar amount tied to specific projects.

Another — the residential clean energy credit, or the 25D credit — is also worth 30% of qualifying project costs. It doesn’t have an annual or lifetime dollar, except for certain limits on fuel cells, according to the IRS.

They are currently available through 2032. (The 25D credit phases down to 26% for installations in 2033 and 22% for those in 2034.)

Both tax credits would be repealed after 2025 under the House bill.

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The 25C and 25D credits have been available in some form since 1978 and 2005, respectively, according to economists at the Haas Energy Institute at the University of California, Berkeley.

More than 3.4 million U.S. households claimed one of the credits in 2023, receiving more than $8 billion, according to the Treasury Department.

Experts recommend that consumers considering a home-efficiency project have it completed by year’s end to be able to claim a tax credit.

“If a homeowner was looking to take advantage of the 25C tax credit, under what is being proposed [by the House] they’d need to ensure their system was put in service this year,” said Kara Saul Rinaldi, president and CEO of AnnDyl Policy Group, an energy and environmental policy strategy firm.

The House tax bill may change

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Of course, the tax bill’s text may change.

There appears to be dissent from within House Republican ranks over various aspects of the bill. Some of the infighting is tied to the repeal of climate related tax breaks, which have been more popular among consumers than anticipated.

The Senate also needs to pass the measure before it heads to the president’s desk.

“Republicans are far from united, with deficit hawks pushing for greater deficit reduction, centrists objecting to steep welfare cuts and blue-state Republicans fighting for bigger State and Local Tax (SALT) exemptions,” Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a research note on Tuesday.

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