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Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman taught us to make better money decisions

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My grandmother, Big Mama, was masterful at making financial decisions. She didn’t let emotion dictate her behavior.

I once asked why we had only a washing machine and no dryer.

“That’s why God created sunlight,” she said.

My grandmother taught me that money is often not about math. She understood that you have to fight instincts that can lead to doing things not in your best interest.

If Big Mama couldn’t afford something, no pleading or peer pressure could change her mind. Debt was to be avoided as much as possible. Living above your means was illogical.

In a small rowhouse in Baltimore with just a high school education, my grandmother was to me what Daniel Kahneman was to behavioral economicsa world he helped pioneer.

Kahneman, who died this week at 90, was a psychologist whose work “integrated insights from psychological research into economic science, especially concerning human judgment and decision-making under uncertainty,” according to the citation for the 2002 Nobel Prize in economic science he shared with economist Vernon Smith.

Kahneman and his research collaborator, Amos Tversky, did groundbreaking work upending the notion that economic decisions are governed by logic. Tversky died in 1996, and the Nobel is never awarded posthumously.

In his 2011 book, “Thinking, Fast and Slow,” Kahneman wrote that his aim was “to present a view of how the mind works that draws on recent developments in cognitive and social psychology.”

We are — because of our biases — often irrational beings.

I regularly work with people trying to recover from financial disasters brought on by poor decision-making. They buy a $50,000 vehicle because they don’t want to pay $1,500 to repair their car, which, when fixed, will last for years. Or they have $20,000 in a low-yield savings account but are carrying $10,000 in credit card debt at a 20 percent interest rate.

One key to a better financial life and security is having a system to guide your decision-making.

Even if you are not a student of Kahneman, here are six steps to better decision-making.

What are you trying to accomplish? State it clearly.

This first step in the decision-making process may seem obvious, but it often isn’t. People let their emotions lead rather than examine a choice based on economics.

My husband and I teach a marriage and money class at our church. During one session, a couple wanted our opinion on their decision to upgrade to a bigger home. They had determined they needed more space.

It turns out that the wife was pushing for the purchase because she wanted more room for her clothes and shoes. They were already deeply in debt, and taking on a larger mortgage would not have been in their best interest.

They were about to make an irrational decision because the wife had unresolved issues in her life that led to her overspending. They stayed put.

2. What’s the need or want behind the decision?

This is the why question. For example, “Should I replace my clunker of a car?” Be honest with yourself. Is it truly a need or a want?

Need: You are frequently stranded without warning because of various mechanical issues.

Want: The repair expenses you complain about pale in comparison to the cost of buying a new vehicle. You’re just tired of driving your hoopty. So, you rationalize that it must be time to purchase a new car.

3. What are your non-negotiables?

What are you not willing to compromise on if you decide to act on this decision? For example, the cost must be within the budget. The house must be near a good school district. The car must be electric/hybrid or at least fuel-efficient.

4. Identify and assess all alternatives

Have you carefully considered other options? Don’t rule anything out before you’ve evaluated all possible choices. Once you’ve identified the alternatives, scrutinize each one.

Yes, your older car is increasingly in need of repairs. But if you can plan the repairs so you aren’t stranded, it’s still probably cheaper than buying another car. Is public transportation an option? Do you absolutely need a car?

5. What’s the cost, and can you afford it?

Calculate the price of each option. Don’t just focus on the short-term outlay. Are there other costs you should consider?

How will the decision affect your relationships or your mental/physical health?

What is the opportunity cost? This refers to a benefit you miss out on when making a particular decision. For example, will this decision impact your ability to build wealth?

If you purchase a car with a $1,000 monthly payment, can you still build an emergency fund or save for retirement?

Once you’ve identified the alternatives, sift through each one.

If you want more personal finance advice that’s timeless, order your copy of Michelle Singletary’s Money Milestones.

Slow down your decision-making, but also be careful of “analysis paralysis.”

Overthinking the decision or succumbing to the fear of making a wrong choice can prevent you from taking a course of action.

If you can say with certainty that you have followed the previous five steps, then go ahead and move forward with confidence, knowing you did all that you could do. Then, don’t look back with regret.

Kahneman, the grandfather of behavioral economics, asked in his book, “How can we improve judgments and decisions?”

His answer: “Little can be achieved without a considerable investment of effort.”

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20 items and goods most exposed to price shocks

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Employees at a clothing factory in Vo Cuong, Bac Ninh province, in Vietnam.

SeongJoon Cho/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Trump administration’s plan to slap steep tariffs on goods from dozens of countries is expected to spike prices for consumers. Some items, like leather goods, will see a bigger jump than others.

The overall impact on households will vary based on their purchasing habits. But most families — especially lower earners — are likely to feel the pain to some degree, economists said.

According to an analysis by the Budget Lab at Yale University, the average household will lose $3,800 of purchasing power per year as a result of all President Donald Trump‘s tariff policies — and retaliatory trade actions by other nations — announced as of Wednesday.

That’s a “meaningful amount,” said Ernie Tedeschi, the lab’s director of economics and former chief economist at the White House Council of Economic Advisers during the Biden administration.

The analysis doesn’t include the 34% retaliatory tariff China announced Friday on all U.S. exports, set to take effect April 10. The U.S. exported nearly $144 billion worth of goods to China in 2024, the third-largest market for U.S. goods behind Canada and Mexico, according to the Census Bureau.

Clothing prices poised to spike

The garment industry is among the most susceptible to tariff-related price shocks.

Prices for clothing and shoes, gloves and handbags, and wool and silk products will all increase by between 10% and 20% due to the tariffs Trump has so far imposed, according to the Yale Budget Lab analysis. Tedeschi noted that some of these price increases could take 5 years or more to unfold.

Srdjanpav | E+ | Getty Images

The bulk of apparel and shoes sold in the U.S. is manufactured in China, Vietnam, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, said Denise Green, an associate professor at Cornell University and director of the Cornell Fashion + Textile Collection.

Under the “reciprocal tariffs” Trump announced Wednesday, Chinese imports will face a 34% duty. Goods from Vietnam, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh face tariffs of 46%, 44% and 37%, respectively.

Taking into account the pre-existing tariffs on China totaling 20%, Beijing now faces an effective tariff rate of at least 54%.

“The tariffs are disastrous for the apparel industry worldwide, but especially for smaller countries with highly specialized garment manufacturing,” Green said.

A lot of clothing production has moved overseas over the last 50 years, Tedeschi said, but it’s “very unlikely” clothing and textile manufacturing will return to the U.S. from Asia in the wake of the new tariffs.

“People will still import clothing to a large extent, and they’ll have to eat the price increase,” he said.

Car prices are another pain point

Various Mercedes-Benz vehicles assembled in the “Factory 56” production hall.

Picture Alliance | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

The duties announced Wednesday are on top of other tariffs Trump has imposed since his second inauguration, including duties on automobiles and car parts; copper, steel and aluminum; and certain imports from Canada and Mexico.

The cost of motor vehicles and car parts could swell by over 8% according to the Yale Budget Lab analysis.

Bank of America estimated that new vehicle prices could increase as much as $10,000 if automakers pass the full impact of tariffs on to consumers.

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“Rising car prices are already a major pain point for the vast majority of Americans who live in an area where they need a car to get to work, school, their kids’ activities, and medical appointments,” said Erin Witte, director of consumer protection for the Consumer Federation of America.

“These tariffs will make it much worse, and will significantly reduce Americans’ choices about what car they want to buy,” she said.

Tariffs on specific commodities like aluminum and steel affect consumers indirectly, since the materials are used to manufacture a swath of consumer goods.

White House spokesman Kush Desai pushed back on analyses that prices will spike because of Trump’s tariff policy.

“Chicken Little ‘expert’ predictions didn’t quite pan out during President Trump’s first term, and they’re not going to pan out during his second term when President Trump again restores American Greatness from Main Street to Wall Street,” Desai said in an e-mailed statement.

Trump’s second-term tariffs are orders of magnitude larger than his first term, however.

The first Trump administration put tariffs on about $380 billion worth of goods in 2018 and 2019, according to the Tax Foundation. The tariffs so far imposed in Trump’s second term affect more than $2.5 trillion of U.S. imports, it said.

There’s also evidence that the first-term tariffs raised prices for some consumers.

Retail prices for the typical washing machine and clothing dryer rose by about 12% each — about $86 and $92 per unit, respectively — due to 2018 tariffs on imports of washing machines, according to a study by economists at the Federal Reserve Board and University of Chicago. The increased cost to consumers totaled $1.5 billion a year, the study found.

Tariffs are expected to raise the U.S. inflation rate

Economists also expect the overall U.S. inflation rate to jump due to tariffs.

American businesses that import goods from abroad will be the ones on the hook for paying the cost of tariffs, and economists anticipate that companies will pass at least some of those costs on to consumers.

The tariffs are disastrous for the apparel industry worldwide, but especially for smaller countries with highly specialized garment manufacturing.

Denise Green

director of the Cornell Fashion + Textile Collection

An environment of rising prices for foreign goods may give U.S. businesses cover to somewhat raise their prices, too.

As a result, the consumer price index could jump to 4.5% later in 2025, Capital Economics estimated Thursday. That’s up from 2.8% in February, and roughly double the Federal Reserve’s long-term inflation target.

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What to know before trying to ‘buy the dip’ amid tariff sell-off

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Anchiy | E+ | Getty Images

As the stock market continues to fall, some investors are eager to “buy the dip,” or purchase assets at temporarily lower prices. Financial advisors, however, urge clients to stick with long-term investing plans amid the latest volatility.

U.S. stocks plunged on Thursday after President Donald Trump issued sweeping tariffs on more than 180 countries and territories. The sell-off continued Friday after China unveiled plans to impose a 34% retaliatory tariff on all goods imported from the U.S.

As of Friday afternoon, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down more than 1,700 points following a 1,679.39 drop on Thursday. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 was off 4.8% after losing 4.84% the previous day. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slid by 4.9% after plummeting 5.97% on Thursday.

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If you’re looking for buying opportunities while assets are down, here are some things to consider, according to financial advisors.

Timing the market is ‘impossible’

When asset values fall, there’s often chatter in online communities like Reddit about whether to “buy the dip.” Typically, investors aim to buy at a discount and expect an eventual recovery, which could lead to future gains.

While buying cheaper investments isn’t a bad idea, the strategy can be tricky to execute since, of course, no one can predict stock market moves, experts say. 

“We never recommend timing the market, mostly because it is impossible to do without simply getting lucky,” said certified financial planner Eric Roberge, CEO of Beyond Your Hammock in Boston.  

Instead, you should “stick to a thoughtful, rules-based investment strategy designed to get you through to your long-term goals,” he said. 

Keep a ‘disciplined approach’

Investing in uncertain times: Here's what investors should know

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As college costs soar, Ivy Leagues boost financial aid packages

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Fstop123 | E+ | Getty Images

While most people agree that a college education is worthwhile, fewer say it’s worth the high cost.

However, as college costs continue to rise, many top schools are responding by offering more generous financial aid packages to ensure affordability for qualified students, with some even covering the entire cost for low-income families. 

College tuition has surged by 5.6% a year, on average, since 1983, significantly outpacing other household expenses, a recent study by J.P. Morgan Asset Management found.

For the 2024-25 school year, tuition and fees plus room and board for a four-year private college averaged $58,600, up from $56,390 a year earlier. At four-year, in-state public colleges, it was $24,920, up from $24,080, according to the College Board.

Despite the rising costs, financial aid has not kept pace: Families now shoulder 48% of college expenses with their income and investments, up from 38% a decade ago, J.P. Morgan Asset Management also found.

The new, simplified Free Application for Federal Student Aid form, which first launched in 2023, was meant to improve access by expanding Pell Grant eligibility to provide more financial support to low- and middle-income families.

But even Pell Grants have not kept up with the rising cost of a four-year degree. Currently, the maximum Pell Grant award is $7,395, after notching a $500 increase in the 2023-34 academic year.

“Aid continues to not be enough and that’s the reality,” said Tricia Scarlata, head of education savings at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Taking on too much debt was also the No. 1 worry among college-bound students, according to a recent survey by The Princeton Review.

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Top colleges expand financial aid awards

This also comes amid President Donald Trump’s plans to dismantle the U.S. Department of Education and transfer the country’s $1.6 trillion student loan portfolio to the Small Business Administration.

“While the federal student loan program is in a state of flux, a lot of students are getting money directly from colleges,” said Eric Greenberg, president of Greenberg Educational Group, a New York-based consulting firm.

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To bridge the affordability gap, some of the nation’s top institutions are boosting their financial aid awards to attract top students wary of sky-high college tab.

“There’s a trend of colleges with money using it as opposed to sitting on it,” Greenberg said.

Harvard University was the latest school to announce that it will be tuition free for undergraduates with family incomes of up to $200,000 beginning in the 2025-26 academic year. 

Nearly two dozen more schools have also introduced “no-loan” policies, which means student loans are eliminated altogether from their financial aid packages.

Acceptance rates hit all-time lows

Schools with the financial wherewithal to expand their no-loan aid programs are giving students a tremendous benefit, Scarlata said. “I think it’s wonderful — you still have to get into Harvard though.”

Coming out of the pandemic, highly selective colleges and universities experienced a record-breaking increase in applications, according to a report by the Common Application.

Now the acceptance rates at Ivy League schools are near rock bottom. Harvard’s acceptance rate is just under 4%, down from more than 10% two decades ago; at Princeton and Yale, it’s about 5%, down from 12% and 10%, respectively.

“The arms race for financial aid is setting up an extreme crescendo for college admissions,” said Jamie Beaton, co-founder and CEO of Crimson Education, a college consulting firm. 

More generous aid packages and tuition-free policies remove the most significant financial barrier to higher education and attract even more applicants, he said — at schools that were already among the most difficult to get into.

“There’s a massive incentive to try to gain admission to top schools,” Beaton said. “The acceptance rate has halved. And it likely will again.”

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