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Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman taught us to make better money decisions

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My grandmother, Big Mama, was masterful at making financial decisions. She didn’t let emotion dictate her behavior.

I once asked why we had only a washing machine and no dryer.

“That’s why God created sunlight,” she said.

My grandmother taught me that money is often not about math. She understood that you have to fight instincts that can lead to doing things not in your best interest.

If Big Mama couldn’t afford something, no pleading or peer pressure could change her mind. Debt was to be avoided as much as possible. Living above your means was illogical.

In a small rowhouse in Baltimore with just a high school education, my grandmother was to me what Daniel Kahneman was to behavioral economicsa world he helped pioneer.

Kahneman, who died this week at 90, was a psychologist whose work “integrated insights from psychological research into economic science, especially concerning human judgment and decision-making under uncertainty,” according to the citation for the 2002 Nobel Prize in economic science he shared with economist Vernon Smith.

Kahneman and his research collaborator, Amos Tversky, did groundbreaking work upending the notion that economic decisions are governed by logic. Tversky died in 1996, and the Nobel is never awarded posthumously.

In his 2011 book, “Thinking, Fast and Slow,” Kahneman wrote that his aim was “to present a view of how the mind works that draws on recent developments in cognitive and social psychology.”

We are — because of our biases — often irrational beings.

I regularly work with people trying to recover from financial disasters brought on by poor decision-making. They buy a $50,000 vehicle because they don’t want to pay $1,500 to repair their car, which, when fixed, will last for years. Or they have $20,000 in a low-yield savings account but are carrying $10,000 in credit card debt at a 20 percent interest rate.

One key to a better financial life and security is having a system to guide your decision-making.

Even if you are not a student of Kahneman, here are six steps to better decision-making.

What are you trying to accomplish? State it clearly.

This first step in the decision-making process may seem obvious, but it often isn’t. People let their emotions lead rather than examine a choice based on economics.

My husband and I teach a marriage and money class at our church. During one session, a couple wanted our opinion on their decision to upgrade to a bigger home. They had determined they needed more space.

It turns out that the wife was pushing for the purchase because she wanted more room for her clothes and shoes. They were already deeply in debt, and taking on a larger mortgage would not have been in their best interest.

They were about to make an irrational decision because the wife had unresolved issues in her life that led to her overspending. They stayed put.

2. What’s the need or want behind the decision?

This is the why question. For example, “Should I replace my clunker of a car?” Be honest with yourself. Is it truly a need or a want?

Need: You are frequently stranded without warning because of various mechanical issues.

Want: The repair expenses you complain about pale in comparison to the cost of buying a new vehicle. You’re just tired of driving your hoopty. So, you rationalize that it must be time to purchase a new car.

3. What are your non-negotiables?

What are you not willing to compromise on if you decide to act on this decision? For example, the cost must be within the budget. The house must be near a good school district. The car must be electric/hybrid or at least fuel-efficient.

4. Identify and assess all alternatives

Have you carefully considered other options? Don’t rule anything out before you’ve evaluated all possible choices. Once you’ve identified the alternatives, scrutinize each one.

Yes, your older car is increasingly in need of repairs. But if you can plan the repairs so you aren’t stranded, it’s still probably cheaper than buying another car. Is public transportation an option? Do you absolutely need a car?

5. What’s the cost, and can you afford it?

Calculate the price of each option. Don’t just focus on the short-term outlay. Are there other costs you should consider?

How will the decision affect your relationships or your mental/physical health?

What is the opportunity cost? This refers to a benefit you miss out on when making a particular decision. For example, will this decision impact your ability to build wealth?

If you purchase a car with a $1,000 monthly payment, can you still build an emergency fund or save for retirement?

Once you’ve identified the alternatives, sift through each one.

If you want more personal finance advice that’s timeless, order your copy of Michelle Singletary’s Money Milestones.

Slow down your decision-making, but also be careful of “analysis paralysis.”

Overthinking the decision or succumbing to the fear of making a wrong choice can prevent you from taking a course of action.

If you can say with certainty that you have followed the previous five steps, then go ahead and move forward with confidence, knowing you did all that you could do. Then, don’t look back with regret.

Kahneman, the grandfather of behavioral economics, asked in his book, “How can we improve judgments and decisions?”

His answer: “Little can be achieved without a considerable investment of effort.”

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Some shoppers prefer retail credit cards over buy now, pay later plans

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High interest rates aren’t deterring many shoppers from store credit cards.

When asked to choose between a store card or a buy now, pay later plan, 58% of surveyed shoppers prefer store cards, according to a new report by LendingTree. The remaining 42% picked BNPL loans.

The site polled 2,040 U.S. adults in September.

That choice “speaks to the fact people may be looking for a little bit longer-term help with their financial situation,” said Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree.

In December, new cards offered by the top 100 retailers had an average annual percentage rate of 32.66%, up from 27.7% in 2022, according to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Many short-term BNPLs do not charge interest, but longer-term loans do, and on the higher end, those rates can be comparable to a store card.

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Younger shoppers have been early adopters of BNPL, and that shows in their payment preferences. 

About 59% of Gen Zers and 51% of millennials prefer BNPL over retail store credit cards, Lending Tree found. To compare, 38% of Gen Xers and 22% of baby boomers prefer BNPL.

“Buy now, pay later really started off as a millennial, Gen Z phenomenon,” Schulz said. “Younger Americans really drove a lot of the growth.” 

Whichever payment option you plan to use to finance holiday purchases this year, keep in mind the cost of carrying the debt, experts say.

How store cards and BNPL work

Gen X most likely to max out their credit cards, survey finds

A retail credit card can affect your credit history, as the account is reported to the three major credit bureaus: Equifax, Experian and TransUnion.

BNPL has been somewhat “invisible” to credit bureaus in the past, meaning the loan did not show up on users’ credit reports. But AfterPay, Affirm and Klarna are among the providers reporting some BNPL loans to the credit bureaus.

Both payment forms can be attractive for shoppers. Retail store credit cards tend to be easier to qualify for compared to other credit cards, especially as banks have been tightening credit card approval requirements in recent months, Schulz said. 

Over the third quarter of 2024, some banks have tightened their lending standards for credit card loans, lowered their credit limits and increased minimum credit score requirements, according to the Federal Reserve.

“It’s a reaction from the banks to rising delinquencies, rising debt and overall economic uncertainty,” Schulz said.

BNPL can also be relatively easy to apply for and qualify.

“The rise of buy now, pay later is the biggest reason why Americans are opening fewer store cards,” according to Ted Rossman, an industry analyst at Bankrate.

‘Consider the total cost of ownership’

The holiday season is here, a busy time to buy gifts for family and friends. If you find yourself in a situation where a retail store credit card or a BNPL can help stretch your budget, consider the “total cost of ownership,” Rossman said.

“Both of these payment methods can be advantageous depending on how you use them, but could also be a pretty slippery slope into debt and overspending,” he said.

BNPL can be tricky because you can have multiple loans running at the same time, and the costs “can add up,” Rossman said. Make sure to keep track of the pay-later loans you have and are able to withstand the automatic deductions.

If you can’t pay a retail card purchase off at the end of the statement period, any discount, reward or perk that you may get is going to be washed over by the interest you’ll owe on top of the outstanding balance, Schulz said. 

“Paying 30% interest to save 15 or 20% doesn’t make a whole lot of sense financially,” Schulz said.

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What to know before rebalancing with bitcoin profits, advisor says

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Many investors are likely still deciding whether to stay in bitcoin or reduce their profits from the last bull run to new all-time highs.

So, after a strong year for bitcoin, it could be time for investors to weigh rebalancing their portfolio by shifting assets to align with other financial goals, according to financial experts.    

The price of the flagship digital currency sailed past $100,000 in early December and was still up more than 130% year-to-date, as of Dec. 18. 

Some investors now have large bitcoin allocations — and they could have a chance to “take some risk off the table,” said certified financial planner Douglas Boneparth, president of Bone Fide Wealth in New York.

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“The golden rule of ‘never invest more than you’re willing to lose’ comes into play, especially when we’re talking about speculative assets,” said Boneparth, who is also a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council.

Before using bitcoin profits to buy other investments, you may consider using the gains to fund another financial goal, like retiring early or buying a home, he said.  

Decide on your ‘line in the sand’

There’s a different thought process if you want the money to stay invested, Boneparth said.

Typically, advisors pick an asset allocation, or mix of investments, based on a client’s goals, risk tolerance and timeline.

Often, there’s a “line in the sand” for the maximum percentages of a single asset, he said.  

Typically, Boneparth uses a maximum of 20% of a client’s “investable net worth,” which doesn’t include a home, before he starts trimming allocations of one holding.

‘There’s no free lunch’ with taxes

However, you could harvest crypto gains tax-free if you’re in the 0% long-term capital gains bracket for 2024, experts say.

For 2024, you’re eligible for the 0% rate with taxable income of $47,025 or less for single filers and $94,050 or less for married couples filing jointly. These amounts include any gains from crypto sales.

“That’s a very effective strategy if you’re in that bracket,” Andrew Gordon, a tax attorney, certified public accountant and president of Gordon Law Group, previously told CNBC.

The 0% capital gains bracket may be bigger than you expect because it’s based on taxable income, which you calculate by subtracting the greater of the standard or itemized deductions from your adjusted gross income.

Financial advisors take on crypto: Here's what to know

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Paying down debt is a top financial goal for 2025. These tips can help

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When it comes to financial resolutions for 2025, there’s one goal that often lands on the top of the list — paying down debt, according to a new survey from Bankrate.

That’s as a majority of Americans — 89% — say they have a main financial goal for 2025, the November survey of almost 2,500 adults found.

While paying down debt came in as a top goal, with 21%, other items on Americans’ financial to-do lists include saving more for emergencies, with 12%; getting a higher paying job or additional source of income, 11%; budgeting and spending better, 10%; saving more for retirement and investing more money, each with 8%; saving for non-essential purchases, 6%; and buying a new home, 4%.

Those goals cap off a year that had some financial challenges for consumers. Some prices remain elevated, even as the pace of inflation has subsided. As Americans grapple with higher costs, credit card debt recently climbed to a record $1.17 trillion. The average credit card debt per borrower rose to $6,380 in the third quarter, according to TransUnion.

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Lower interest rates may help reduce the costs of holding that debt. The Federal Reserve moved on Wednesday to cut rates for the third time since September, for a total reduction of one percentage point.

Yet the best-qualified credit card borrowers — those with superior credit scores — still have an average rate of 20.35%, down from around 20.79% in August, according to Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.

It could be injurious to personal finances if people accumulated debt that they’re not substantially paying down,” Hamrick said. “It’s prudent and heartening to see that people are identifying debt broadly as something they want to address in the coming year.”

‘The Fed isn’t the cavalry coming to save you’

To pay down credit card balances — as well as other debts from auto loans or other lines of credit — individuals may need to shift their financial priorities.

A majority of Americans admit to having bad financial habits, finds a recent survey from Allianz Life Insurance Company of North America.

That includes 30% who admit to spending too much money on things they don’t need; 28% who don’t save any money; 27% who only save some money; 23% who aren’t paying down debt fast enough; and 21% who spend more than they earn.

For debtors who want to pay their balances down, the best approach is to take matters into their own hands, said Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree.

“Even though the Fed is reducing rates, the Fed isn’t the cavalry coming to save you,” Schulz said.

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Asking your credit card company for a more competitive interest rate on your debt often works, according to Schulz. About 76% of people who asked for that in the past year got their way, LendingTree found.

“It’s absolutely worth a call,” he said.

Moreover, balance holders also may keep an eye out for 0% transfer offers, which can let them lock in a no-interest promotion for a fixed amount of time, although fees may apply. Or they may consider a personal loan to help consolidate their debts for a lower rate.

Even as debtors prioritize those balances, it’s still important to prioritize personal savings, too. Experts generally recommend having at least three to six months’ living expenses set aside in case of an emergency. That way, there’s a cash cushion to turn to in the event of an unexpected car repair or veterinary bill, Shulz said.

Admittedly, by also prioritizing savings, it will take more time to pare down debt balances, he said. But having savings on hand can also help stop the debt cycle for good.

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