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Powell and the Fed won’t be able to avoid talking about Trump forever

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Federal Reserve Board Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee meeting in Washington on November 07, 2024 in Washington, DC. 

Kent Nishimura | Getty Images

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell dodged question after question at his Thursday news conference from a press corps eager to elicit the central bank leader’s thoughts about President-elect Donald Trump.

At some point, though, Fed policymakers, economists and analysts will need to account for what likely will be an ambitious economic — not to mention political — agenda from the firebrand Republican.

Trump took a dim view of the Powell Fed during his first term in office, calling policymakers “boneheads” and once compared Powell to a golfer who couldn’t putt. Powell, who was nominated by Trump in Nov. 2017 and took office the following February, largely shrugged off the criticism then, and he again deflected Thursday.

“I’m not going to get into any of the political things here today, but thank you,” Powell said during the news conference after being asked at least half a dozen times about the Trump victory and its ramifications. Powell cut the session short around 3:12 p.m. ET, a few minutes earlier than normal following the round of politics-heavy questioning.

However, dealing with the ramifications of a Trump presidency will be almost unavoidable for the Fed leader.

Among the expected policy initiatives on the way are steep tax cuts, expansionary government spending and aggressive tariffs aimed at leveling a global playing field. Trump also has threatened mass deportations for undocumented immigrants, something that could alter the labor market landscape.

How the Trump-Powell relationship unfolds this time is unclear — Powell’s term as chair is up in February 2026 — but it is likely to add another wrinkle into a delicate balance the Fed is trying to navigate with monetary policy.

Differences in policies, politics

“They’re going to get themselves in a bind here, because the communication is going to get much more difficult, and there’s going to be a new administration coming in with its own way of how to view policy,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities.

“It’s not clear to me that that the Fed is going to have the same type of approach of what the [new] administration is doing, and that I think could set up a lot more tension,” he added.

LaVorgna has a unique perspective on the situation, having served as the chief economist for the National Economic Council under Trump. He could be headed back to Washington in 2025 for another stint in the White House.

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Like Trump, LaVorgna has been a Fed critic, though for a seemingly opposite reason as thinks the central bank made a mistake Thursday in lowering its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point. LaVorgna instead advocated the Fed hold off until it can get a clearer picture of a muddied economic landscape with uncertainty over the direction of inflation and unemployment.

Trump historically has favored lower rates, though that too could change if the Fed cuts and inflation rises.

“What if, going forward, the outlook becomes more mixed?” Lavorgna said. “To me, it was obvious they shouldn’t be cutting. And then President Trump I think [could] properly ask, ‘Why are you cutting when things [with inflation] actually don’t look as solid as they might have before?'”

Many economists think Trump’s policies could help stoke inflation at a time when signs are showing that, at least on a relative basis, the pace of price increases is easing back towards the Fed’s 2% target. Some of those economists already this week started marking up their inflation estimates and cutting their outlook for growth, despite a high level of uncertainty about what the Trump agenda will actually entail.

Should those forecasts come true and inflation perk up, the Fed will have no choice but to respond, possibly by slowing the pace of rate cuts or stopping altogether.

Uncertainty ahead

While Powell avoided Trump talk, Wall Street commentary following the Fed’s decision Thursday to lower rates by another quarter percentage point addressed the potential fallout.

“The upcoming year in Federal Reserve policy is going to be a remarkably interesting twelve months indeed,” wrote Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.

In a forecast that is close to the Wall Street consensus as well as the fed funds futures market, Brusuelas expects the Fed to lop another full percentage point off baseline rates in 2025. But that outlook could be subject to change.

“This forecast is based on the economic status quo holding, all else being equal,” Brusuelas said. “Because we are entering an era of unorthodox economic populism, that forecast is subject to changes in both trade and immigration policy that could alter the path of employment, the unemployment rate and wage pressures that could cause an increase in the price level.”

While some economists worry that Trump’s policies could cause major fallout, others are taking a more measured approach given the incoming president’s penchant for saber rattling.

Despite implementing heavy tariffs that economists also feared would raise prices dramatically, inflation never topped 3% at any point during Trump’s term and in fact barely cracked 2% as judged by the Fed’s preferred indicator. Moreover, Biden kept Trump’s tariffs largely in place and even added some new ones on electric cars and other items.

Ultimately, the next round of tariffs could add about 0.3% to inflation, according to Nationwide Chief Economist, Kathy Bostjancic.

“We anticipate this should provide reason for the Fed to slow the rate of policy easing a bit, but not stop it,” she said. “Our call for substantive rate cuts over the next year would maintain the easing in financial market conditions that helps lower borrowing costs for consumers and businesses and continues to support the labor market and ongoing expansion.”

Still, the prospect of the Fed asserting its independence and moving policy in either direction, irrespective of Trump’s wishes, sets up a potential clash.

Trump previously has asserted that the president at least should be consulted on monetary policy. Fed officials, though, insist on independence from fiscal and political considerations, which could get tougher in the days ahead.

“The easy cuts have been made, and maybe December won’t be too contentious either,” said Elyse Ausenbaugh, head of investment strategy at J.P. Morgan Wealth Management. “Thereafter, I imagine the Fed is asking the same questions as investors – to what extent and when will the incoming Trump administration implement its campaign policy proposals?”

Economics

Donald Trump sacks America’s top military brass

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THE FIRST shot against America’s senior military leaders was fired within hours of Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20th: General Mark Milley’s portrait was removed from the wall on the E-ring, where it had hung with paintings of other former chairmen of the joint chiefs of staff. A day later the commandant of the coast guard, Admiral Linda Fagan, was thrown overboard. On February 21st it was the most senior serving officer, General Charles “CQ” Brown, a former F-16 pilot, who was ejected from the Pentagon. At least he was spared a Trumpian farewell insult. “He is a fine gentleman and an outstanding leader,” Mr Trump declared.

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Checks and Balance newsletter: The journalist’s dilemma of covering Trump

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Checks and Balance newsletter: The journalist’s dilemma of covering Trump

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Economics

Germany’s election will usher in new leadership — but might not change its economy

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Production at the VW plant in Emden.

Sina Schuldt | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

The struggling German economy has been a major talking point among critics of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’ government during the latest election campaign — but analysts warn a new leadership might not turn these tides.

As voters prepare to head to the polls, it is now all but certain that Germany will soon have a new chancellor. The Christian Democratic Union’s Friedrich Merz is the firm favorite.

Merz has not shied away from blasting Scholz’s economic policies and from linking them to the lackluster state of Europe’s largest economy. He argues that a government under his leadership would give the economy the boost it needs.

Experts speaking to CNBC were less sure.

“There is a high risk that Germany will get a refurbished economic model after the elections, but not a brand new model that makes the competition jealous,” Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, told CNBC.

The CDU/CSU economic agenda

The CDU, which on a federal level ties up with regional sister party the Christian Social Union, is running on a “typical economic conservative program,” Brzeski said.

It includes income and corporate tax cuts, fewer subsidies and less bureaucracy, changes to social benefits, deregulation, support for innovation, start-ups and artificial intelligence and boosting investment among other policies, according to CDU/CSU campaigners.

“The weak parts of the positions are that the CDU/CSU is not very precise on how it wants to increase investments in infrastructure, digitalization and education. The intention is there, but the details are not,” Brzeski said, noting that the union appears to be aiming to revive Germany’s economic model without fully overhauling it.

“It is still a reform program which pretends that change can happen without pain,” he said.

Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, head of forecasting at research institute DIW Berlin, noted that the CDU is also looking to reach gross domestic product growth of around 2% again through its fiscal and economic program called “Agenda 2030.”

But reaching such levels of economic expansion in Germany “seems unrealistic,” not just temporarily, but also in the long run, she told CNBC.

Germany’s GDP declined in both 2023 and 2024. Recent quarterly growth readings have also been teetering on the verge of a technical recession, which has so far been narrowly avoided. The German economy shrank by 0.2% in the fourth quarter, compared with the previous three-month stretch, according to the latest reading.

Europe’s largest economy faces pressure in key industries like the auto sector, issues with infrastructure like the country’s rail network and a housebuilding crisis.

Dany-Knedlik also flagged the so-called debt brake, a long-standing fiscal rule that is enshrined in Germany’s constitution, which limits the size of the structural budget deficit and how much debt the government can take on.

Whether or not the clause should be overhauled has been a big part of the fiscal debate ahead of the election. While the CDU ideally does not want to change the debt brake, Merz has said that he may be open to some reform.

“To increase growth prospects substantially without increasing debt also seems rather unlikely,” DIW’s Dany-Knedlik said, adding that, if public investments were to rise within the limits of the debt brake, significant tax increases would be unavoidable.

“Taking into account that a 2 Percent growth target is to be reached within a 4 year legislation period, the Agenda 2030 in combination with conservatives attitude towards the debt break to me reads more of a wish list than a straight forward economic growth program,” she said.

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Franziska Palmas, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics, sees some benefits to the plans of the CDU-CSU union, saying they would likely “be positive” for the economy, but warning that the resulting boost would be small.

“Tax cuts would support consumer spending and private investment, but weak sentiment means consumers may save a significant share of their additional after-tax income and firms may be reluctant to invest,” she told CNBC.  

Palmas nevertheless pointed out that not everyone would come away a winner from the new policies. Income tax cuts would benefit middle- and higher-income households more than those with a lower income, who would also be affected by potential reductions of social benefits.

Coalition talks ahead

Following the Sunday election, the CDU/CSU will almost certainly be left to find a coalition partner to form a majority government, with the Social Democratic Party or the Green party emerging as the likeliest candidates.

The parties will need to broker a coalition agreement outlining their joint goals, including on the economy — which could prove to be a difficult undertaking, Capital Economics’ Palmas said.

“The CDU and the SPD and Greens have significantly different economic policy positions,” she said, pointing to discrepancies over taxes and regulation. While the CDU/CSU want to reduce both items, the SPD and Greens seek to raise taxes and oppose deregulation in at least some areas, Palmas explained.

The group is nevertheless likely to hold the power in any potential negotiations as it will likely have their choice between partnering with the SPD or Greens.

“Accordingly, we suspect that the coalition agreement will include most of the CDU’s main economic proposals,” she said.

Germany is 'lacking ambition,' investor says

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