President Donald Trump has spoken of tariffs as a job-creating behemoth.

Tariffs will “create jobs like we have never seen before,” Trump said Tuesday during a joint session of Congress.

Economists disagree.

In fact, the tariff policies Trump has pursued since taking office would likely have the opposite effect, they said.

“It costs American jobs,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s.

He categorized tariffs imposed broadly as a “lose-lose.”

“There are no winners here in the trade war we’re seemingly being engulfed in,” Zandi said. 

Trump has imposed an additional duty of 20% on all imports from China. He put 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, the U.S.’ two biggest trade partners. (Just days after those took effect, the president delayed levies on some products for a month.)

Tariffs of 25% on steel and aluminum are set to take effect Wednesday, while duties on copper and lumber and reciprocal tariffs on all U.S. trade partners could be coming in the not-too-distant future.

There’s a deceptively simple logic to the protective power of such economic policy.

Tariffs generally aim to help U.S. companies compete more effectively with foreign competitors, by making it more expensive for companies to source products from overseas. U.S. products look more favorable, thereby lending support to domestic industry and jobs.

There’s some evidence of such benefits for targeted industries.

For example, steel tariffs during Trump’s first term reduced imports of steel from other nations by 24%, on average, over 2018 to 2021, according to a 2023 report by the U.S. International Trade Commission. They also raised U.S. steel prices and domestic production by about 2% each, the report said.

New steel tariffs set to take effect March 12 would also “likely boost” steel prices, Shannon O’Neil and Julia Huesa, researchers at the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote in February.

Higher prices would likely benefit U.S. producers and add jobs to the steel industry’s current headcount, around 140,000, they said.

While tariffs’ protection may “relieve” struggling U.S. industries, it comes with a cost, Lydia Cox, an assistant economics professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and international trade expert, wrote in a 2022 paper.

Tariffs create higher input costs for other industries, making them “vulnerable” to foreign competition, Cox wrote.

These spillover effects hurt other sectors of the economy, ultimately costing jobs, economists said.  

Take steel, for example.

Steel tariffs raise production costs for the manufacturing sector and other steel-intensive U.S. industries, like automobiles, farming machinery, household appliances, construction and oil drilling, O’Neil and Huesa wrote.

Cox studied the effects of steel tariffs imposed by former president George W. Bush in 2002-03, and found they were responsible for 168,000 fewer jobs per year in steel-using industries, on average — more jobs than there are in the entire steel sector.

Tariffs are a “pretty blunt instrument,” said Cox during a recent webinar for the Harvard Kennedy School.

They create “a lot of collateral damage,” she added.

Tariffs imposed during Trump’s first-term — on products like washing machines, steel and aluminum — hit $290 billion of U.S. imports with an average 24% tariff by August 2019, according to a 2020 paper published by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Those levies ultimately translated to a 2% tariff on all U.S. exports after accounting for foreign retaliation, it found.

“A tax on imports is effectively a tax on exports,” Erica York, senior economist at the Tax Foundation, wrote last year for the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank.

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Damage to the U.S. economy from those first-term Trump tariffs “clearly” amounted to “many times” more than the wages of newly created jobs, economists Larry Summers, former Treasury secretary during the Clinton administration, and Phil Gramm, a former U.S. senator (R-Texas), wrote in a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed.

(President Joe Biden kept most of Trump’s tariffs in place.)

U.S. trade partners have already begun fighting back against Trump’s recent tranche of tariffs.

China put tariffs of up to 15% on many U.S. agricultural goods — which are the largest U.S. exports to China — starting Monday. Canada also put $21 billion of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods like orange juice, peanut butter, coffee, appliances, footwear, cosmetics, motorcycles and paper products.

President Trump alluded to the potential economic pain of his tariff policies during his address to Congress.

“There will be a little disturbance, but we are okay with that,” he said. “It won’t be much.”

While many economists don’t yet forecast a U.S. recession, Trump in a Fox News interview on Sunday didn’t rule out the possibility of a downturn as tariffs take effect — though he said the economy would benefit in the long term. If a recession were to happen, it would weigh on protected sectors, too, economists said.

Voters elected President Trump with a mandate to institute an economic agenda that includes tariffs, Kush Desai, a spokesperson for the White House, said in an e-mailed statement.

“Tariffs played a key role in the industrial ascent of the United States stretching back to the 1800s through William McKinley’s presidency,” Desai said.

There is a historical precedent for the trade war that’s breaking out: The Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930, which triggered a reduction in exports and failed to boost agricultural prices for the farmers it sought to protect, Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank, wrote in a 2024 paper.

Economists also believe the Smoot-Hawley tariff exacerbated the Great Depression.

While a nearly century-old economic policy doesn’t necessarily point to what will happen in the modern era, protectionist policies from the post-2017 years have — like Smoot-Hawley — “had disappointing results,” Strain wrote.

Evidence from recent years suggests protectionism may actually hurt the workers it seeks to help, Strain said.

For example, Trump’s first-term tariffs reduced total manufacturing employment by a net 2.7%, Aaron Flaaen and Justin Pierce, economists at the Federal Reserve Board, wrote in 2024. That’s after accounting for a 0.4% boost to employment in manufacturing jobs protected by tariffs, they found.

The 2018-19 trade war “failed to revive domestic manufacturing” and actually reduced jobs in the broad manufacturing sector, Strain wrote.

The share of U.S. employment coming from manufacturing jobs has been falling since the end of World War II, largely because technological advances have increased workers’ productivity, Strain said. It would be more helpful to direct economic policy toward connecting workers to jobs of the future, he said.

“Trade — like technological advances — is disruptive, but attempts to entomb the U.S. economy in amber are not a helpful response,” he wrote.

Total outstanding consumer debt stood at $5 trillion as of January, according to the Federal Reserve’s G.19 consumer credit report released on Friday. That is up slightly from a month earlier but down 0.6% compared to a year ago.

Revolving debt, which mostly includes credit card balances, jumped 8.2% year over year, while nonrevolving debt, such as auto loans and student loans, rose 3%.

“Some small cracks are starting to emerge,” said Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate.

Overall, “consumers are still spending, of course,” Rossman said.

However, “sentiment has been depressed — and has taken another few steps down in recent weeks due to tariff worries,” he added.

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The G.19 report shows “significant-but-not-crazy growth in revolving credit, and moderate growth in nonrevolving and overall credit,” according to Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree.

But economists say Trump’s tariffs on imports from China, Mexico and Canada are bound to raise prices for consumers, which is fueling concern among households. One recent consumer survey found that 86% of Americans said trade tensions are likely to hit their wallets and another 22% have also started stockpiling certain items, regardless of whether they can afford it.

In the last year, credit card debt rose to a record $1.21 trillion, with 34% of credit card borrowers saying they expect to take on more debt this year, according to a separate poll of 2,000 adults in February by CreditCards.com.

Credit cards are also one of the most expensive ways to borrow money. The average credit card currently charges more than 20%, near an all-time high.

“If you have credit card debt — and about half of cardholders do — my best advice is to sign up for a balance transfer card with a lengthy 0% promotion,” Rossman said. Cards offering 12, 15 or even 21 months with no interest on transferred balances are one of the best weapons Americans have in the battle against credit card debt, experts often say.

Working with a reputable nonprofit credit counseling agency is another solid option, Rossman added.

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More couples are saying “yes” to lab-grown diamonds.

In 2024, 52% of couples surveyed said their engagement ring featured a lab-grown diamond, according to the 2025 Real Weddings Study by The Knot. The popularity of lab-grown diamonds increased by 6% from last year and by 40% since 2019, the bridal site found.

In addition to data from prior reports, the Knot 2025 Real Weddings Study includes insights from nearly 17,000 couples in the U.S. who got married in 2024 and data from couples getting married in 2025.

Many couples end up buying a lab-grown diamond ring because of the lower price tag, according to experts. On average, a proposer looking to buy a lab-grown engagement ring could expect to spend about $4,900 compared with $7,600 for a mined diamond ring, the Knot found.

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In general, lab-grown diamonds can sell for around one-tenth the price of a comparable natural diamond, according to Paul Zimnisky, a global diamond industry analyst and founder of Paul Zimnisky Diamond Analytics.

In the first quarter of 2025, an unbranded, round, 1-carat lab-grown diamond costs about $845, according to Zimnisky’s proprietary data and analysis. A similar natural diamond would cost about $3,895.

Lab-grown diamonds possess the same chemical properties and hardness as naturally mined diamonds, and thus are subject to the same “four C’s” — cut, color, clarity and carat — grading system as natural gems.

The big question — can you tell if a diamond was human-made or mined?

Both stones are optically the same, meaning they will look the same to the naked eye, experts say. However, under the proper testing conditions, scientists and jewelers with the expertise can tell them apart, according to Ulrika F.S. D’Haenens-Johansson, a research scientist and senior manager of diamond research at the Gemological Institute of America.

If you’re in the market for an engagement ring this year, here are some key factors you should consider about lab-grown diamonds versus a natural diamond, according to experts.

• Ethics: For some shoppers, lab-grown stones helped provide an option for those concerned about “blood diamonds,” or diamonds mined in war zones and used to fund conflict and human rights abuses. However, experts noted that the diamond industry has come a long way from how diamonds are sourced. The Kimberley Process is an international trade regime created in 2003 to add oversight to the diamond supply chain and eliminate the trade of diamonds sold by rebel groups or their allies.

• Environmental impact: While lab-grown diamonds have gained a reputation for being a “greener” way to purchase diamonds, it’s uncertain how truly sustainable they are. “Lab-grown [diamonds] require higher energy consumption because they’re growing in a laboratory that [is] powered by fossil fuels,” Gizzi said. If sustainability is important, Zimnisky said, consider a second-hand or repurposed diamond for “the lowest environmental impact.”

• Value over time: Engagement rings are typically purchased for sentimental reasons and are not considered investments. But it’s worth noting that lab-grown diamonds do not hold their value and will likely sell for less than what you initially paid for, Gizzi said. A high-quality natural diamond or gemstone may hold its value, or even appreciate.

The first thing you should do is set a realistic budget, said Lauren Kay, executive editor at The Knot.

“You should determine what price you’re comfortable with,” she said.

The rule of thumb about spending “three months’ salary” on a diamond ring is an outdated myth, she said.

Gizzi agreed: “I haven’t used that in a decade.” 

Whether you pick a lab-grown diamond or a natural one, “buy the best diamond that your budget can afford,” as the ring is a piece of jewelry your significant other will appreciate for a long time, Gizzi said.

“It’s not something that you’re going to upgrade a year later,” Gizzi said.

If you’re in the process of buying a ring, here are two more things to consider when shopping for engagement rings:

1. The four C’s

The four C’s, the color, carat, clarity and cut, can influence the overall cost of the diamond. Knowing which of the qualities matters most to you and your significant other can help you bring down the overall cost, The Knot’s Kay said.

2. The metal

The metal of the ring you choose can also influence the price, Kay said. For example, while platinum and white gold look similar, platinum is “rarer and stronger” and can cost more, she said.

But you also want to consider the longevity of the jewelry piece, she said. Even though white gold can be a cheaper metal and can lower upfront costs, you may want to consider long-term maintenance into the price, she said.

For instance, a durable metal like platinum is unlikely to change color over time, Gizzi said. White gold, on the other hand, will require you to periodically re-plate the ring to restore the original finish.