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Sequence of returns risk can hurt retiree portfolios. How to plan

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Doug Wilson | Corbis Documentary | Getty Images

Stock market dips can create a big portfolio risk during your earlier retirement years — and many investors don’t prepare, financial experts say. 

The issue, known as “sequence of returns risk,” refers to how the timing of withdrawals paired with stock market losses can impact how long your retirement saving lasts.

Your first five years of retirement are the “danger zone” for tapping accounts during a downturn, according to Amy Arnott, a portfolio strategist with Morningstar Research Services.

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If you take assets from accounts when the value is falling, “there’s less money left in the portfolio to benefit from an eventual rebound in the market,” she said.  

Moreover, sequence risk can increase your chances of outliving retirement savings, Arnott said.

For example, let’s say your portfolio dropped by at least 15% during your first year of retirement and you also withdrew 3.3% of the balance.

That combination would increase your odds of depleting the portfolio within 30 years by six times compared to someone with a first-year positive return, according to a 2022 report from Morningstar. (This research assumed future yearly withdrawals were fixed at the same share of the portfolio.)

Negative returns are more harmful early in retirement than later, according to a 2024 report from Fidelity Investments. That’s because retirees miss more years of potential compound growth.   

“It’s very difficult to overcome those losses in early years,” said David Peterson, head of advanced wealth solutions at Fidelity.

By comparison, early years of positive returns in retirement have “the advantage of the markets working in your favor,” he said.

Keep a ‘balanced asset allocation’ 

As you approach retirement, a “balanced asset allocation” is one of the best things investors can do to reduce sequence risk during early retirement years, Arnott said. 

For example, there’s a lower sequence risk if your portfolio is 60% stocks and 40% bonds compared to heavier stock allocations, she said. 

With the “proper asset allocation,” negative returns might not be as extreme for your portfolio as the stock market losses, Peterson said. Of course, the right mix ultimately depends on your risk tolerance and goals. 

Adopt the ‘bucket approach’

You can also shield your portfolio from stock market losses with a retirement strategy known as the “bucket approach,” Arnott said. 

Typically, you’ll keep one to two years of living expenses in cash, which would be accessible during market dips, she said.  

The next five years of spending could be in short- to intermediate-term bonds or bond funds. Beyond that, the third bucket focuses on growth with stocks, Arnott said.

“It does take some maintenance from year to year,” but it could provide “peace of mind” while reducing sequence of returns risk, she said.

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The key issues and who stands to benefit

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U.S. President Donald Trump announces the NFL draft will be held in Washington, at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 5, 2025.

Leah Millis | Reuters

As negotiations ramp up for President Donald Trump‘s tax agenda, there are key issues to watch, according to policy experts.   

The House Ways and Means Committee, which oversees taxes, released a preliminary partial text of its portion of the bill on Friday evening. However, the bill could change significantly before the final vote. The full committee will debate and advance this legislation on Tuesday.

With control of the White House and both chambers of Congress, Republican lawmakers can pass Trump’s package without Democratic support via a process known as “reconciliation,” which bypasses the Senate filibuster with a simple majority vote.

But reconciliation involves multiple steps, and the proposals must fit within a limited budget framework. That could be tricky given competing priorities, experts say. 

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“The narrow [Republican] majority in the House is going to make that process very difficult” because a handful of votes can block the bill, said Alex Muresianu, senior policy analyst at the Tax Foundation.

Plus, some lawmakers want a “more fiscally responsible package,” which could impact individual provisions, according to Shai Akabas, vice president of economic policy for the Bipartisan Policy Center.

As negotiations continue, here are some key tax proposals that could impact millions of Americans.

Extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts

The preliminary House Ways and Means text includes some temporary and permanent enhancements beyond the TCJA. These include boosts to the standard deduction, child tax credit, tax bracket inflation adjustments, the estate tax exemption and pass-through business deduction, among others.

Child tax credit expansion

Some lawmakers are also pushing for bigger tax breaks than what’s currently offered via the TCJA provisions.

“The child tax credit is one that we’re watching very closely,” Akabas said. “There’s a lot of bipartisan agreement on preserving and hopefully expanding that.”  

TCJA temporarily increased the maximum child tax credit to $2,000 from $1,000 per child under age 17, and boosted eligibility. These changes are scheduled to sunset after 2025.

The House in February 2024 passed a bipartisan bill to expand the child tax credit, which would have boosted access and refundability. The bill didn’t clear the Senate, but Republicans expressed interest in revisiting the issue.  

The early House Ways and Means text proposes expanding the maximum child tax credit to $2,500 per child for four years starting in 2025.

‘SALT’ deduction relief

Another TCJA provision — the $10,000 limit on the deduction for state and local taxes, known as “SALT” — was added to the 2017 legislation to help fund other tax breaks. That provision will also expire after 2025.

Before the change, filers who itemized tax breaks could claim an unlimited deduction for SALT. But the so-called alternative minimum tax reduced the benefit for some higher earners. 

Repealing the SALT cap has been a priority for certain lawmakers from high-tax states like California, New Jersey and New York. In a policy reversal, Trump has also voiced support for a more generous SALT deduction. 

“If you raise the cap, the people who benefit the most are going to be upper-middle-income,” since lower earners typically don’t itemize tax deductions, Howard Gleckman, senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, previously told CNBC.

The SALT deduction was absent from the preliminary House Ways and Means text. But Congressional negotiations are ongoing.

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Trump’s campaign ideas

On top of TCJA extensions, Trump has also recently renewed calls for additional tax breaks he pitched on the campaign trail, including no tax on tips, tax-free overtime pay and tax-exempt Social Security benefits. These ideas were not yet included in the early House Ways and Means text.  

However, there are lingering questions about the specifics of these provisions, including possible guardrails to prevent abuse, experts say.

For example, you could see a questionable “reclassification of income” to qualify for no tax on tips or overtime pay, said Muresianu. “But there are ways you could mitigate the damage.”

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How top tax rates compare, as Trump eyes hike for wealthy

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U.S. President Donald Trump points as he attends the annual Friends of Ireland luncheon hosted by U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., U.S., March 12, 2025. 

Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters

As Republicans wrestle with funding their massive spending and tax package, President Donald Trump is eyeing a possible tax hike for the highest earners.

The idea, which lacks Republican support, could return the top federal income tax rate to 2017 levels for some of the wealthiest Americans.  

In a phone call Thursday, NBC reported, Trump pressed House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., to raise the top income tax rate on the wealthiest Americans and close the so-called carried interest loophole. The proposal would revert the 37% rate to 39.6% for individuals making $2.5 million or more per year, to help preserve Medicaid and tax cuts for everyday Americans.

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Trump on Friday expressed openness to the tax hike on the wealthiest Americans in a Truth Social post, noting he would “graciously accept” the tax increase to “help the lower and middle income workers.”

“Republicans should probably not do it, but I’m OK if they do!!!” he wrote.

Enacted by Trump, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, or TCJA, of 2017 created sweeping tax breaks for individuals and businesses. Most will sunset after 2025 without an extension from Congress.

The TCJA temporarily dropped the highest income tax rate from 39.6% to 37%. For 2025, the 37% rate kicks in for single filers once taxable income exceeds $626,350.    

How Trump’s idea compares to historic rates

If signed into law, a top 39.6% income tax rate would return wealthy taxpayers to pre-TCJA levels from 2013 to 2017. Before that, the top rate was 35% during most of the early 2000s, according to data collected by the Tax Policy Center. The highest top rate was 94% from 1944-1945.

However, this data doesn’t reflect how much income was subject to top rates or the value of standard and itemized deductions during these periods, the organization noted.

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Real estate and gold vs. stocks: Best long-term investment

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Brendon Thorne | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Some Americans believe real estate and gold are the best long-term investments. Advisors think that’s misguided.

About 37% of surveyed U.S. adults view real estate as the best investment for the long haul, according to a new report by Gallup, a global analytics and advisory firm. That figure is roughly unchanged from 36% last year

Gold was the second-most-popular choice, with 23% of surveyed respondents. That’s five points higher than last year. 

To compare, just 16% put their faith in stocks or mutual funds as the best long-term investment — a decline of six percentage points from 2024’s report, Gallup found.

The firm polled 1,006 adults in early April.

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Financial advisors caution that this preference is likely more about buzz than fundamentals. Be careful about getting caught up in the hype, said certified financial planner Lee Baker, the founder, owner and president of Claris Financial Advisors in Atlanta.

Carolyn McClanahan, a CFP and founder of Life Planning Partners in Jacksonville, Florida, agreed: “People are always chasing what’s hot, and that’s the stupidest thing you could do.”

Here’s what investors need to know about gold and real estate, and how to incorporate them in your portfolio.

Why gold and real estate are alluring

Baker understands why people like the idea of real estate and gold: Both are tangible objects versus stocks. 

“You buy a house, you can see it, feel it, touch it. Your investment in stocks perhaps doesn’t feel real,” said Baker, a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council.

While the preference for gold grew this year, the share of Gallup respondents who think it’s the best long-term investment is still below the record high of 34% in 2011. Back then, gold investors sought refuge amid high unemployment, a crippled housing market and volatile stocks, Gallup noted.

Gold prices have been trending upward this spring. Spot gold prices hit an all-time high of above $3,500 per ounce in late April. One year ago, prices were about $2,200 to $2,300 an ounce.

Real estate has also drawn more interest in recent years amid high demand from buyers and accelerating prices. The median sale price for an existing home in the U.S. in March was $403,700, according to Bankrate. That is down from the record high of $426,900 in June.

Why stocks are the better bet

While real estate and gold are two assets that can appreciate in value over time, the stock market will generally grow at a much higher rate, experts say.

The annualized total return of S&P 500 stocks is 10.29% over the 30-year period ending in April, per Morningstar Direct data. Over the same time frame, the annualized total return for real estate is 8.78% and for gold, 7.38%.

McClanahan also points out that unlike gold and real estate, stocks are diversified assets, meaning you’re spreading out your cash versus concentrating it into one investment.

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How to include gold, real estate into your portfolio

If you are among the Americans that want exposure to real estate or gold, there are different ways to do it wisely, experts say.

For real estate, financial advisors say investors might look into real estate investment trusts, also known as REITs, or consider investments that bundle real estate stocks, like exchange-traded funds.

An REIT is a publicly traded company that invests in different types of income-producing residential or commercial real estate, such as apartments or office buildings.

In many cases, you can buy shares of publicly traded REITs like you would a stock, or shares of a REIT mutual fund or exchange-traded fund. REIT investors typically make money through dividend payments.

Real estate mutual funds and exchange-traded funds will typically invest in multiple REITs and in the real estate market broadly. It’s even more diversified than investing in a single REIT.

Either way, you’re exposed to real estate without concentrating into a single property, and it will help diversify your portfolio, McClanahan said. 

Similar to gold — instead of stocking up on gold bullions, consider investing in gold through ETFs.

That way you avoid having to deal with finding a place to store or hide physical gold, you wash off the stress of it getting stolen or making sure it’s covered by your home insurance policy, experts say. 

“With the ETF, you actually get the value of the return of gold, but you don’t actually own it,” McClanahan said.

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