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Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2025 may be 2.5%

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Patchareeporn Sakoolchai | Moment | Getty Images

Social Security beneficiaries have seen higher cost-of-living adjustments in recent years, prompted by record high inflation.

Yet next year’s increase may not be as generous.

Based on new government inflation data, beneficiaries may see just a 2.5% increase to benefits in 2025, estimates Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare analyst.

In 2024, more than 71 million Americans — including Social Security and Supplemental Security Income beneficiaries — saw a 3.2% cost-of-living adjustment, according to the Social Security Administration.

A spike in inflation drove the annual benefit boost even higher in 2023, when there was an 8.7% increase, the highest in four decades. That followed a 5.9% raise in 2022, which at the time also marked a recent high.

In 2021, the cost-of-living adjustment was 1.3%.

If a 2.5% COLA goes into effect in 2025, it would be about average, according to Johnson.

Importantly, the estimate for the 2025 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment is subject to change.

The Social Security Administration is poised to announce the official increase to benefits in October. That will include new government inflation data for September. The current 2.5% estimate has about a 17% chance of increasing and a 13% chance of decreasing, according to Johnson.

The annual Social Security cost-of-living adjustment is calculated using third-quarter data from a subset of the consumer price index, known as the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W.  

This is a developing story. Please refresh for updates.

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Your last chance to claim an IRS stimulus check is approaching

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Douglas Sacha | Moment | Getty Images

If you still haven’t filed your 2021 tax return and never received a pandemic-era IRS stimulus check, the deadline is April 15 because there’s a three-year window to claim refunds, according to the agency.

Filers who never got the 2021 stimulus payment of up to $1,400 could claim the recovery rebate credit on that year’s return.  

“If you didn’t get the stimulus, you’re running out of time,” said Syracuse University law professor Robert Nassau, director of the school’s low-income tax clinic. 

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The IRS in December announced plans to automatically send “special payments” of up to $1,400 to 1 million taxpayers who didn’t claim the 2021 recovery rebate credit on tax returns for that year.  

The agency said most payments were expected to arrive via direct deposit or paper check by late January 2025, based on the taxpayer’s 2023 tax return information.

In order to see if the IRS issued a stimulus payment, you can create an online account and view “tax records” under the “records and status” toolbar. 

“That’s the best place to look,” said Tommy Lucas, a certified financial planner and enrolled agent at Moisand Fitzgerald Tamayo in Orlando, Florida.

Your IRS online account also shows if you filed a 2021 return, Lucas said. 

If you don’t submit your 2021 filing by April 15, you could also miss other tax breaks, such as the earned income tax credit, which can trigger a refund even without taxes owed, according to the IRS.  

Currently, there are more than $1 billion in unclaimed refunds for tax year 2021, the IRS estimated in early March. That represents more than 1.1 million taxpayers and a median unpaid refund of $781. These figures don’t include applicable credits, including the recovery rebate credit.

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You need ‘proof’ of filing by the deadline

While there are several free options for tax returns this season, some may not offer electronic filing for 2021 returns, Nassau warned. 

If you’re forced to mail your 2021 return, you should send the filing via certified mail for “proof” you sent it by the April 15 deadline, he said. 

“I’ve had situations where the IRS gets something after the filing [due] date, and they just reflexively say it’s too late,” Nassau said. “Spend the $5 and send it certified.”

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Disability advocates sue Social Security and DOGE to stop service cuts

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A Social Security Administration (SSA) office in Washington, DC, March 26, 2025. 

Saul Loeb | Afp | Getty Images

A group of disability advocates filed a federal lawsuit against the Social Security Administration and the so-called Department of Government Efficiency on Wednesday aimed at stopping cuts to the agency’s services.

Recent changes at the Social Security Administration under DOGE — including staff reductions, the elimination of certain offices and new requirements to seek in-person services — have made it more difficult for individuals with disabilities and older adults to access benefits, the lawsuit argues.

The complaint was filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia.

The plaintiffs include the National Federation of the Blind, the American Association of People with Disabilities, Deaf Equality, the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare, the Massachusetts Senior Action Council and individual beneficiaries.

“The defendants’ actions are an unprecedented and unconstitutional assault on Social Security benefits, concealed beneath the hollow pretense of bureaucratic ‘reform,'” the complaint states.

In nine weeks, the new administration has “upended” the agency with “sweeping and destabilizing policy changes,” the plaintiffs claim, that have shifted agency functions to local offices while slashing telephone services.

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“The result is a systematic dismantling of SSA’s core functions, leaving millions of beneficiaries without the essential benefits they are legally entitled to,” the lawsuit complaint states.

The “mass restructuring” of the agency is unlawful and violates the Rehabilitation Act and the Administrative Procedure Act, the lawsuit argues. The changes also violate multiple constitutional provisions, including the First Amendment right to petition the government for redress of grievances, according to the plaintiffs.

With 1.1 million disability claims pending, the recent actions could also be life threatening to individuals who are dying or going bankrupt while waiting for decisions, they allege.

The Social Security Administration did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

“President Trump has made it clear he is committed to making the federal government more efficient,” White House spokesperson Liz Huston said in an email statement. “He has the authority to manage agency restructuring and workforce reductions, and the administration’s actions are fully compliant with the law.”

Lawsuit alleges reform is ‘administrative vandalism’

People hold signs during a protest against cuts made by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration to the Social Security Administration, in White Plains, New York, U.S., March 22, 2025. 

Nathan Layne | Reuters

The Social Security Administration sends monthly checks to around 73 million Social Security and Supplemental Security Income beneficiaries.

DOGE, which is not an official government entity, has been tasked with cutting “waste, fraud and abuse” within the federal government. President Donald Trump issued an executive order creating DOGE on Jan. 20, the same day he was inaugurated.

Since then, the Social Security Administration has cut 7,000 employee positions and closed the Office of Civil Rights and Equal Opportunity and the Office of Transformation. The Office of Civil Rights and Equal Opportunity handled the agency’s equal employment opportunity and civil rights programs. The Office of Transformation was responsible for coordinating customer service-related initiatives like adding the ability to use digital signatures and electronic documents.

The Social Security Administration has also changed its identity proofing policies for claiming benefits and changing direct deposit information that is expected to require more individuals to visit the agency’s offices in person.

The agency has updated its policy, allowing individuals applying for Social Security Disability Insurance, Medicare, or Supplemental Security Income who cannot use a personal my Social Security account to complete their claim entirely over the telephone, starting April 14. 

The reforms amount to the dismantling of “core functions of SSA, abandoning millions of Americans to poverty and indignity,” according to the plaintiffs’ complaint.

“What the defendants frame as ‘reform’ is, in truth, administrative vandalism,” the lawsuit states.

Beneficiaries face long waits, overpayment issues

The plaintiffs include seven individuals whose experiences, including long customer service waits and, in some cases, demands to repay large sums to the Social Security Administration, are detailed in the complaint.

One plaintiff, Treva Olivero, who has been legally blind since birth, was informed in March 2024 that she had been overpaid Social Security disability insurance benefits for five or six years, prompting the agency to demand she repay more than $100,000, according to the complaint.

Olivero’s Medicaid coverage was also terminated soon after, which left her without income and health coverage. She has since been in an “ongoing struggle” to have her disability benefits reinstated, while also facing almost $80,000 in medical debt, according to the complaint.

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Another plaintiff, Merry Schoch, who received Social Security disability insurance for many years, returned to work to help pay for large medical bills after she was hit by a waste management truck in 2022. She reported her income to the Social Security Administration, and the agency made no changes to her benefit payments, according to the complaint.

Two years later, Schoch stopped working and reported her unemployment to the Social Security Administration. In August 2024, the agency then terminated her benefits and informed Schoch that she owed $30,000 for the disability benefit payments she received while working full time, according to the complaint.

Last September, Schoch was informed she could reapply for benefits. However, she has since struggled to get in touch with the agency over the phone, online and in person. 

Both Olivero and Schoch are members of the National Federation of the Blind, which is also a plaintiff.

The plaintiffs want the court to reverse the Social Security Administration’s recent reforms, including staff reductions, closures of certain offices and policies requiring in-person appointments.

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Amid trade turmoil, ‘you do not want to time the market’

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Pres. Trump unveils sweeping tariffs: Here's what to know

As President Donald Trump rolls out sweeping new tariffs on goods imported into the United States, Americans are growing increasingly pessimistic about their financial fate.

Consumers worry that the duties will cause inflation to flare up again, while investors fear that higher prices will mean lower profits and more pain for the battered stock market

As of Thursday morning, futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 1,200 points, or 2.8%. S&P 500 futures sank 3.4%, and Nasdaq-100 futures lost 4%.

But sharp drops — or sudden spikes — in the market are to be expected, according to Jean Chatzky, CEO of HerMoney.com and host of the podcast HerMoney with Jean Chatzky.

“With these volatile markets, you do not want to time the market,” she said of the old adage. “Timing the market doesn’t work — it’s time in the market.”

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Trade tensions, inflation and concerns about a possible recession have undermined consumer confidence across the board, several studies show.

Still, it’s normal for most Americans to feel unnerved during heightened volatility, Chatzky said.

“There’s very little doubt that consumers are feeling nervous, maybe more nervous than we’ve felt in quite some time,” she said.

Committing to setting money aside in a high-yield savings account, whether by scaling back on dining out or rideshare expenses, will help regain some financial control, Chatzky said.

Top-yielding online savings accounts currently pay 4.4%, on average, well beyond the savings account rates at some of the largest retail banks, which average just 0.41%.

“Taking action is the best way to feel more resilient,” she said.

It’s understandable why some may be hesitant to continue investing, however, when you are investing for the long term, a down market is an opportunity for dollar-cost averaging, which helps smooth out price fluctuations in the market, Chatzky said.

This is also a good time to check your investments to make sure you are still allocated properly and rebalance as needed, so you are not taking on more risk that you are comfortable with, she added.

Timing the market is a losing bet

Talk yourself down from making any sudden financial moves, Chatzky advised.

Trying to time the market is almost always a bad idea, other financial experts also say. That’s because it’s impossible to know when good and bad days will happen.

For example, the 10 best trading days by percentage gain for the S&P 500 over the past three decades all occurred during recessions, often in close proximity to the worst days, according to a Wells Fargo analysis published last year.

And, although stocks go up and down, the S&P 500 index has an average annualized return of around 10% over the past few decades.

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