The Swiss national flag hangs from the Federal Palace, Switzerland’s parliament building, in Bern, Switzerland, on Thursday, Dec. 13, 2018. The Swiss National Bank cut its inflation forecast and showed no inclination of moving off its crisis-era settings, citing the francs strength and mounting global risks. Photographer: Stefan Wermuth/Bloomberg via Getty Images
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The Swiss National Bank on Thursday surprised the market with a decision to lower its main policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.5%, saying national inflation is likely to stay below 2% for the foreseeable future.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected the Swiss central bank to hold rates at 1.75%.
“For some months now, inflation has been back below 2% and thus in the range the SNB equates with price stability. According to the new forecast, inflation is also likely to remain in this range over the next few years,” the bank said. Swiss inflation continued to fall in February, hitting 1.2%.
The SNB also reduced its annual inflation forecasts. The bank now sees average inflation reaching 1.4% in 2024, down from its 1.9% estimate in December, and 1.2% for 2025, trimmed from the previous 1.6% estimate. Its first forecast for 2026 puts average inflation at 1.1% over the period.
Following the announcement, analysts at Capital Economics said they expect two more SNB rate cuts over the course of this year, “with the Bank sounding more dovish and inflation likely to undershoot its forecasts.”
“We think inflation will come in even lower than the new SNB forecasts imply and remain around the current level of 1.2% before falling to below 1.0% next year. Accordingly, we forecast the SNB to cut rates at the September and December meetings taking the policy rate to 1%, where we think it will remain throughout 2025 and 2026,” Capital Economics analysts said in a note.
The September meeting is likely to be the last under the stewardship of SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan, who will step down at the end of that month after 12 years at the helm.
The SNB said Swiss economic growth is “likely to remain modest in the coming quarters,” with the GDP poised to expand by roughly 1% this year.
“Our forecast for Switzerland, as for the global economy, is subject to significant uncertainty. The main risk is weaker economic activity abroad. Momentum on the mortgage and real estate markets has weakened noticeably in recent quarters,” the SNB said. “However, the vulnerabilities in these markets remain.”
On a macro level, the SNB flagged “moderate” global economic growth in the coming quarters, along with likely falls in inflation partly thanks to restrictive monetary policy strategies. It nevertheless acknowledged “significant risks” and geopolitical tensions that could cloud the international economic horizon.
In a TV interview with CNBC’s Silvia Amaro, Jordan said that the improved inflation forecast has given the bank the breathing room to lower rates, but refused to be drawn on the inevitability of three cuts this year.
“We will see in June whether the situation is different, whether inflationary pressure continues to decline, then we’ll make a new decision in June,” he said, acknowledging that the bank remains ready to intercede in the foreign exchange market “if necessary” to defend the Swiss franc. High interest rates typically prop up currencies and weaken the relative value of other coins against them.
“We said very clearly that we remain … available to intervene in the foreign exchange market, if necessary. So we can use this instrument in order to make sure that monetary conditions remain appropriate,” Jordan noted.
He fell short of commenting on whether other central banks will take a page from the SNB’s trailblazing book and loosen their monetary policy, but signaled no concerns over the potential impact their moves may have on the Swiss currency.
“We will profit from a situation where we have price stability globally. Of course, it could have an impact on interest rate differentials, but I think a situation where the price stability is re-established everywhere, this is something that is positive for the global economy, and so also for Switzerland,” he said.
First to blink
Switzerland is the first advanced economy to cut interest rates following a prolonged period of high inflationary pressures, exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic’s impact on global trade and Russia’s war in Ukraine. Switzerland was also affected by jitters in the banking space last year, when the government stepped in to facilitate UBS’ takeover of fallen rival Credit Suisse.
Jordan on Thursday stressed to CNBC the importance of liquidity to the Swiss banking sector.
“A key message from us is always that they have to prepare their collateral, so that this collateral … in case they need additional liquidity,” he said.
Asked whether Swiss lenders are doing enough in this direction, Jordan said there were “very good discussions in Switzerland at the moment” between banks and the SNB.
“The situation of March last year and also in the United States made it very clear also to smaller banks that liquidity issues could be a problem,” he said. “I think we are on the good way in order to make sure that sufficient collateral will be available in an emergency case … but it’s very important that we continue to go in that direction.”
The Swiss National Bank’s rate announcement emerged just before Norway’s central bank refused to blink, holding rates steady at 4.5%.
“The rate path we’re presenting today indicates… an autumn rate cut, most likely in September,” Norges Bank Governor Ida Wolden Bache told a press conference on Thursday, according to Reuters.
It comes after the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday held rates steady following its March meeting and reiterated its expectations for three rate cuts in 2024. The European Central Bank has also been keeping policy unchanged, with officials signaling policymakers will consider a rate cut in June — but flagging that the decision remains highly data-reliant.
SHENZHEN, CHINA – APRIL 12: A woman checks her smartphone while walking past a busy intersection in front of a Sam’s Club membership store and a McDonald’s restaurant on April 12, 2025 in Shenzhen, China.
Cheng Xin | Getty Images News
As sky-high tariffs kill U.S. orders for Chinese goods, the country has been striving to help exporters divert sales to the domestic market — a move that threatens to drive the world’s second-largest economy into deeper deflation.
Local Chinese governments and major businesses have voiced support to help tariff-hit exporters redirect their products to the domestic market for sale. JD.com, Tencent and Douyin, TikTok’s sister app in China, are among the e-commerce giants promoting sales of these goods to Chinese consumers.
Sheng Qiuping, vice commerce minister, in a statement last month described China’s vast domestic market as a crucial buffer for exporters in weathering external shocks, urging local authorities to coordinate efforts in stabilizing exports and boosting consumption.
“The side effect is a ferocious price war among Chinese firms,” said Yingke Zhou, senior China economist at Barclays Bank.
JD.com, for instance, has pledged 200 billion yuan ($28 billion) to help exporters and has set up a dedicated section on its platform for goods originally intended for U.S. buyers, with discounts of up to 55%.
An influx of discounted goods intended for the U.S. market would also erode companies’ profitability, which in turn would weigh on employment, Zhou said. Uncertain job prospects and worries over income stability have already been contributing to weak consumer demand.
After hovering just above zero in 2023 and 2024, the consumer price index slipped into negative territory, declining for two straight months in February and March. The producer price index fell for a 29th consecutive month in March, down 2.5% from a year earlier, to clock its steepest decline in four months.
As the trade war knocks down export orders, deflation in China’s wholesale prices will likely deepen to 2.8% in April, from 2.5% in March, according to a team of economists at Morgan Stanley. “We believe the tariff impact will be the most acute this quarter, as many exporters have halted their production and shipments to the U.S.”
“Prices will need to fall for domestic and other foreign buyers to help absorb the excess supply left behind by U.S. importers,” Shan said, adding that manufacturing capacity may not adjust quickly to “sudden tariff increases,” likely worsening the overcapacity issues in some industries.
Goldman projects China’s real gross domestic product to grow just 4.0% this year, even as Chinese authorities have set the growth target for 2025 at “around 5%.”
Survival game
U.S. President Donald Trump ratcheted up tariffs on imported Chinese goods to 145% this year, the highest level in a century, prompting Beijing to retaliate with additional levies of 125%. Tariffs at such prohibitive levels have severely hit trade between the two countries.
The concerted efforts from Beijing to help exporters offload goods impacted by U.S. tariffs may not be anything more than a stopgap measure, said Shen Meng, director at Beijing-based boutique investment bank Chanson & Co.
The loss of access to the U.S. market has deepened strains on Chinese exporters, piling onto weak domestic demand, intensifying price wars, razor-thin margins, payment delays and high return rates.
“For exporters that were able to charge higher prices from American consumers, selling in China’s domestic market is merely a way to clear unsold inventory and ease short-term cash-flow pressure,” Shen said: “There is little room for profits.”
The squeezed margins may force some exporting companies to close shop, while others might opt to operate at a loss, just to keep factories from sitting idle, Shen said.
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As more firms shut down or scale back operations, the fallout will spill into the labor market. Goldman Sachs’ Shan estimates that 16 million jobs, over 2% of China’s labor force, are involved in the production of U.S.-bound goods.
The Trump administration last week ended the “de minimis” exemptions that had allowed Chinese e-commerce firms like Shein and Temu to ship low-value parcels into the U.S. without paying tariffs.
“The removal of the de minimis rule and declining cashflow are pushing many small and medium-sized enterprises toward insolvency,” said Wang Dan, China director at political risk consultancy firm Eurasia Group, warning that job losses are mounting in export-reliant regions.
She estimates the urban unemployment rate to reach an average 5.7% this year, above the official 5.5% target, Wang said.
Beijing holds stimulus firepower
Surging exports in the past few years have helped China offset the drag from a property slump that has hit investment and consumer spending, strained government finances and the banking sector.
The property-sector ills, coupled with the prohibitive U.S. tariffs, mean “the economy is set to face two major drags simultaneously,” Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, said in a recent note, warning that the risk is a “worse-than-expected demand shock.”
Despite the mounting calls for more robust stimulus, many economists believe Beijing will likely wait to see concrete signs of economic deterioration before it exercises fiscal firepower.
“Authorities do not view deflation as a crisis, instead, [they are] framing low prices as a buffer to support household savings during a period of economic transition,” Eurasia Group’s Wang said.
When asked about the potential impact of increased competition within China’s market, Peking University professor Justin Yifu Lin said Beijing can use fiscal, monetary and other targeted policies to boost purchasing power.
“The challenge the U.S. faces is larger than China’s,” he told reporters on April 21 in Mandarin, translated by CNBC. Lin is dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics.
He expects the current tariff situation would be resolved soon, but did not share a specific timeframe. While China retains production capabilities, Lin said it would take at least a year or two for the U.S. to reshore manufacturing, meaning American consumers would be hit by higher prices in the interim.
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