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The Fed is on course to cut interest rates in December, but what happens next is anyone’s guess

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Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, during the New York Times DealBook Summit at Jazz at Lincoln Center in New York, US, on Wednesday, Dec. 4, 2024.

Yuki Iwamura | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Friday’s jobs report virtually cements that the Federal Reserve will approve an interest rate cut when it meets later this month. Whether it should, and what it does from there, is another matter.

The not-too-hot, not-too-cold nature of the November nonfarm payrolls release gave the central bank whatever remaining leeway it may have needed to move, and the market responded in kind by raising the implied probability of a reduction to close to 90%, according to a CME Group gauge.

However, the central bank in the coming days is likely to face a vigorous debate over just how fast and how far it should go.

“Financial conditions have eased massively. What the Fed runs the risk of here is creating a speculative bubble,” Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities, speaking on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” said after the report’s release. “There’s no reason to cut rates right now. They should pause.”

LaVorgna, who served as a senior economist during Donald Trump’s first presidential term and could serve in the White House again, wasn’t alone in his skepticism about a Fed cut.

Chris Rupkey, senior economist at FWDBONDS, wrote that the Fed “does not need to be tinkering with measures to boost the economy as jobs are plentiful,” adding that the central bank’s stated intention to keep reducing rates looks “to be increasingly unwise as the inflation fire has not been put out.”

Appearing along with LaVorgna on CNBC, Jason Furman, himself a former White House economist under Barack Obama, also expressed caution, particularly on inflation. Furman noted that the recent pace of average hourly earnings increases is more consistent with an inflation rate of 3.5%, not the 2% the Fed prefers.

“This is another data point in the no-landing scenario,” Furman said of the jobs report, using a term that refers to an economy in which growth continues but also sparks more inflation.

“I’ve no doubt the Fed will cut again, but when they cut again after December is anyone’s guess, and I think it will take more of an increase in unemployment,” he added.

Factors in the decision

In the interim, policymakers will have a mountain of information to plow through.

To start: November’s payrolls data showed an increase of 227,000, slightly better than expected and a big step up from October’s paltry 36,000. Adding the two month’s together — October was hampered by Hurricane Milton and the Boeing strike — nets an average of 131,500, or slightly below the trend since the labor market first started to wobble in April.

But even with the unemployment rate ticking up 4.2% amid a pullback in household employment, the jobs picture still looks solid if not spectacular. Payrolls still have not decreased in a single month since December 2020.

There are other factors, though.

Inflation has started ticking up lately, with the Fed’s preferred measure moving up to 2.3% in October, or 2.8% when excluding food and energy prices. Wage gains also continue to be robust, with the current 4% easily surpassing the pre-Covid period going back to at least 2008. Then there’s the issue of Trump’s fiscal policy when he begins his second term and whether his plans to issue punitive tariffs will stoke inflation even further.

In the meantime, the broader economy has been growing strongly. The fourth quarter is on track to post a 3.3% annualized growth rate for gross domestic product, according to the Atlanta Fed.

Then there’s the issue of “financial conditions,” a metric that includes such things as Treasury and corporate bond yields, stock market prices, mortgage rates and the like. Fed officials believe the current range in their overnight borrowing rate of 4.5%-4.75% is “restrictive.” However, by the Fed’s own measure, financial conditions are at their loosest since January.

Earlier this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell praised the U.S. economy, calling it the envy of the developed world and said it provided cushion for policymakers to move slowly as they recalibrate policy.

In remarks Friday, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack noted the strong growth and said she needed more evidence that inflation is moving convincingly toward the Fed’s 2% goal. Hammack advocated for the Fed to slow down its pace of rate cuts. If it follows through on the December reduction, that will equate to a full percentage point move lower since September.

Looking for neutral

“To balance the need to maintain a modestly restrictive stance for monetary policy with the possibility that policy may not be far from neutral, I believe we are at or near the point where it makes sense to slow the pace of rate reductions,” said Hammack, a voting member this year on the Federal Open Market Committee.

The only thing left on the docket that could dissuade the Fed from a December cut is the release next week of separate reports on consumer and producer prices. The consumer price index is projected to show a 2.7% gain. Fed officials enter their quiet period after Friday when they do not deliver policy addresses before the meeting.

The issue of the “neutral” rate that neither restricts nor boosts growth is central to how the Fed will conduct policy. Recent indications are that the level may be higher than it has been in previous economic climates.

What the Fed could do is enact the December cut, skip January, as traders are anticipating, and maybe cut once more in early 2025 before taking a break, said Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at PFIM Fixed Income.

“I don’t think there’s anything in today’s data that would actually stop them from cutting in December,” Porcelli said. “When they lifted rates as much as they did, it was for a completely different inflation regime than we have right now. So in that context, I think Powell would like to continue the process of normalizing policy.”

Powell and his fellow policymakers say they are now casting equal attention on controlling inflation and supporting the labor market, whereas previously the focus was much more on prices.

“If you want until you see cracks from a labor market perspective and then you start to adjust policy down, it’s too late,” he said. “So prudence would really suggest that you start that process now.”

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Texas troopers are in more and more lethal car chases

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A RED CAR weaves in and out of traffic on a highway in El Paso, Texas. It’s June 2022 and Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS) troopers are in hot pursuit. They are chasing someone they suspect of smuggling migrants across the southern border. The high-speed pursuit, which reaches 100mph (160kph), eventually runs parallel to the border wall. As the troopers drive closer they seem to hit the car. It flips and lands upside down. One passenger flies through a window; the others crawl out. The DPS radio traffic is mostly unintelligible except for one word. “Shit.”

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Elon Musk is powersliding through the federal government

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But to what end?

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Trump’s tariffs push will hit the U.S. harder than Europe: Santander

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Tariffs are a tax on the consumer, Santander's Botin says

The White House’s protectionist policies could hit the U.S. harder than Europe in the short term, Banco Santander‘s executive chair told CNBC on Thursday, as tariffs take a toll on domestic consumers.

“Tariffs [are] a tax. It’s a tax on the consumer.” Ana Botín said in an interview with CNBC’s Karen Tso in Brussels on the sidelines of the 2025 IIF European Summit. “Ultimately, the economy will pay a price. There will be less growth and there will be more inflation, other things equal.”

President Donald Trump has imposed — and at times suspended or revoked — a slew of tariffs on imports into the U.S. since his second administration began in January. He is seeking to promote domestic manufacturing and reduce trade deficits between the world’s largest economy and its commercial partners.

Botín is not alone in her warning regarding tariffs’ negative impact on the U.S., with many analysts also saying the duties could ultimately cause higher inflation and strain the wallets of U.S. consumers.

“On a relative basis, in the short term, Europe will be less affected than the U.S.,” Botín said Thursday.

A Volkswagen (VW) Passat R car (L) and a Golf GTI car are pictured in the tower storage facility of German carmaker Volkswagen at the company's headquarters in Wolfsburg, central Germany, on March 11, 2025.

Germany slams Trump’s 25% auto tariffs as bad news for U.S., EU and global trade

The imposition of blanket and country-specific duties — which include Wednesday’s news of a 25% tariff on all car imports into the U.S., effective from April 2 — have led to a number of retaliatory measures, including from the U.S.’ historical transatlantic ally, the European Union.

The bloc has also taken steps to bolster its autonomy through a package of proposals that could critically relax previously ironclad fiscal rules and mobilize nearly 800 billion euros ($863.8 billion) toward the region’s higher defense expenditures.

“European banks today are ready to lend more and support the economy more. We are strong. We have the capital,” Botín said. She also called for more “flexibility” in EU regulations that currently determine the “buffers” European lenders must hold on top of minimum capital requirements to bolster their resilience in the event of financial shocks.

The latest EU plans — and Germany’s steps to overhaul its long-standing debt policy to accommodate bolstered security spending — have boosted German and European defense stocks in recent weeks.

However, Germany is heavily reliant on its beleaguered auto sector — leaving the world’s third-largest exporter vulnerable to stark shifts in trade patterns and potentially exposed to recessionary risks as a result of U.S. tariffs, German central bank Governor Joachim Nagel warned earlier this month.

Botín — whose bank is the fifth-largest auto lender in the U.S. and has been pushing to expand its operations transatlantic while shuttering some physical branches in the U.K. — painted an optimistic picture of the state of the European economy, however.

“As of today, we believe the U.S. will slow down more than Europe, other things equal, because Germany is one third of the economy of the euro zone. That’s huge. So that’s going to give a boost,” she said, while also acknowledging that recent unpredictability has clouded clarity over the European Central Bank’s next monetary policy steps.

The central bank is broadly expected to proceed with a 25-basis-point interest rate cut during its next meeting on April 17. It also eased monetary policy in early March and signaled at the time that its monetary policy had become “meaningfully less restrictive.”

“The fundamentals of the economy are strong, but the uncertainty and volatility [are] at historic levels. So it’s a really hard decision. So there is no doubt that tariffs are a tax on consumer[s], it means slower growth, it means higher inflation,” Botín said.

“How much slower growth and how much higher inflation, we don’t know. But when you don’t know what’s going to happen in the next few months, you’re going to wait to buy a car, you’re going to wait to buy a fridge. If you’re a company … you’re going to wait to see where the tariffs hit harder. So this is going to mean a slowdown in activity. That’ll point toward lower rates. Inflation will point the other direction.”

Botín added that, as a result, “there’s a case to be made for … rates coming down, but probably not as fast.”

Speaking to CNBC’s Tso earlier in the day, ECB policymaker Pierre Wunsch also indicated that the U.S. tariff war had encumbered the bank’s decision-making.

“If we forget tariffs …. we were going in the right direction. Then the question was more a question of fine tuning of the pace of cuts and where we land,” he said. “I was like, you know, inflation might be the boring part of [20]25, and [20]25 is not a boring year. But if you add tariffs to the equation, it’s becoming more complicated.”

ECB's Pierre Wunsch: Trump's tariffs will impact interest rates in Europe

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